Scott Rickenbach
Troy vs. South Alabama
Play: Troy -8
The Trojans run the ball very well and the Jaguars struggle to stop the run. That is the biggest key to this game as there is a mismatch in this one with Troy averaging 200 yards per game on the ground and South Alabama allowing an average of 220 rushing yards per game. The Trojans are certainly highly motivated here as they have lost their match-up with the Jags each of the past two seasons. Troy is already 5-1 this season and building on the improvement they showed in the 2nd half of last season when they went 3-3 and averaged 36 points per game after starting out 1-5 and averaging only 20 points per game under head coach Neal Brown. Now in his 2nd season here, Brown has the Trojans playing very well and they should get revenge in a big way here against a South Alabama team that is on a 1-4 ATS run in Sun Belt Conference games when they are a home dog. The visitor in games between South Alabama and Troy has gotten the cash 4 straight times and I look for a 5th straight road cover here. When playing with 6 days of rest or less between games, the Trojans are on a 14-6 ATS run including 4-0 ATS this season! The Jaguars are off of another loss in Sun Belt action and they are 4-15 ATS including 0-2 ATS this season when off of a loss against a conference foe. Look for the Trojans to get their revenge as this is a classic case of a team on the rise against a team who is regressing. South Alabama's drop-off from the 2014 season (made it to a bowl) continues.
Jimmy Boyd
Virginia Tech -6
I’m siding with the home team in this one. I’m expecting to see a pissed off Virginia Tech team take the field on Thursday. The Hokies came in with big heads after blowing out UNC and simply got out played by Syracuse.They were also likely looking ahead to this game, which many felt would be for the division title. Not to mention Va Tech has some serious revenge after losing the last two to the Canes in the series.
Hokies QB Jerod Evans stated after the game they didn’t come to play with the right intensity level. The important thing here is that even with the loss, Virginia Tech has a lot to play for. The Hokies still control their destiny in the Coastal. Win out and they are guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship Game.
With this being a weekday night game at home, Virginia Tech is going to show up. I believe the only reason this line isn’t higher is because Miami was just No. 10 in the country. The thing is that Hurricanes weren’t deserving of being in the Top 10.
Miami’s offense might be one of the most overrated units in the country. To only put up 19 points on Florida State and 13 against North Carolina is a bad sign.
Hurricane’s quarterback Brad Kaaya gets a lot of love, but he struggles to produce in the big games. Sure he’s completing 62% of his attempts with 10 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. However, those numbers are misleading. Miami’s opponents on average are allowing opposing QB’s to complete 61% of their passes. Miami’s also faced teams who on average are allowing 5.4 yards/carry against the run.
The Hurricane’s struggles offensively will likely continue here. Even after last week’s poor showing, Virginia Tech is sitting 7th in the country in total defense. They are 17th against the run (113.8 ypg) and 20th against the pass (177.7 ypg). Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 44.7% of their attempts against them. That’s against teams who on average are completing 60% of their attempts.
Miami does have a great defense, but Virginia Tech’s offense has great balance and should be able to make enough big plays to win here by at least a touchdown.
Keep in mind, Va Tech is a perfect 5-0 since 1992 off a road loss by 10 or more as a favorite. Miami on the other hand is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off a conference loss as a favorite of 6 or more.
Brandon Lee
Cubs -151
Chicago has their swagger back after last night's 10-2 win and I look for them to carry over that offensive surge here against Maeda and the Dodgers. At the same time, the Cubs have a massive edge on the mound here with them sending out their ace Jon Lester. He's the last person this Dodgers lineup wants to see. Including his Game 1 start, Lester has faced LA 3 times this season. In those 3 starts, he's allowed just 2 earned run on 11 hits with 19 strikeouts in 21 innings of work. Not a huge surprise given how this Dodgers team has struggled against left-handed pitching. Momentum can be everything in the postseason and I believe the Cubs clearly have it right now.
Brandon Powell
Miami +6½
Mark Richt has only lost 3 games in a row once in his career. I think the Canes can win this game, the have the offensive tools to produce. Their offense has been stalled by the weather the past 2 weeks, but tonights forecast is clear. Look for this to be a close game. Take Miami +6.5 confidently tonight.
Jack Jones
Boise State -6½
The BYU Cougars have played a gauntlet of a schedule to open the season. This will be their eighth consecutive week with a game, and they have to be about on fumes by now. They have faced the likes of Arizona, Utah, UCLA, WVU, Toledo, Michigan State and Mississippi State. No team has played a tougher slate to this point, and they desperately need a bye week.
Boise State is legitimately one of the best group of 5 teams in the country with its 6-0 start. And for the most part, the Broncos have made easy work of their opponents. The exception was a 31-28 win over Washington State in which they were actually outgained. But that win looks a lot better now with Washington State contending for a Pac 12 title.
I believe Boise State’s narrow 28-23 win over Colorado State last week is keeping this line lower than it should be. But that was a 28-3 game with five minutes to play. The Rams somehow scored three touchdowns in a matter of less than two minutes to make the final score closer than it really was.
The Broncos have outgained five of their six opponents and have put up impressive numbers this season. They are outscoring foes by 16.0 points per game and outgaining them by 96 yards per game. Their offense is averaging 68 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents give up on average, and their defense is giving up 9.3 points and 44 yards per game less than their opponents average.
BYU has actually been outgained in four of its seven games this season. The offense is only averaging 0.1 yards per play more than their opponents allow, and their defense is only giving up 0.3 yards per play less than their opponents average on offense.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the past five meetings, four of which have come in the last four seasons. The Broncos won their last home meeting with the Cougars by a final of 55-30 in 2014 as identical 6.5-point favorites. They outgained BYU by 315 total yards in that victory.
Boise State is 35-14 ATS in its last 49 games off three straight wins against conference opponents. The Broncos are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after forcing one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Dave Price
South Alabama +9
All you need to do is look at two games to find what South Alabama is capable of. The Jaguars beat Mississippi State 21-20 on the road as 28-point underdogs in their opener. They also beat San Diego State 42-24 as 19.5-point home dogs a few weeks back, handing the Aztecs their only loss of the season. Troy is getting a lot of respect due to its 5-1 start this season, but its 5 wins have come against Austin Peay, Southern Miss, New Mexico State, Idaho and Georgia State. I would argue that South Alabama is the second-toughest team that it will have played this season. The Jaguars won 24-18 on the road at Troy last year, and 27-13 at home against Troy in 2014. Even if they don't win 3 in a row over the Trojans tonight, I like their chances of keeping this one close and staying within this 9-point spread.
Larry Ness
Anaheim vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
The Anaheim Ducks knew it would be no walk in the park to begin their season, as the schedule opened with a five-game road trip. The good news is this trip finally ends with a stop in Philadelphia on Thursday but the bad news is that the Ducks are still looking for their first win (0-3-1). Sami Vatanen gave Anaheim its first lead of the season on Tuesday with a power-play goal for his 100th career point but the team never scored again in a 2-1 loss. "We just can't put the puck in the net," Vatanen said. "When we open the ketchup bottle, it will start to go in."
Meanwhile, Philadelphia (1-1-1) has scored 3.7 GPG but that impressive number is not good enough when the club has yielded 4.3 GPG, to rank 28th in the league. Michal Neuvirth allowed four goals on 16 shots to earn an early exit Tuesday in a 7-4 setback in Chicago (Philly lost 4-3 in OT at Arizona last Saturday night). Like Anaheim, Philadelphia has opened on the road but after a three-game trip, returns for its home opener. It should be an emotional night, as the Flyers play their first-ever season opener at Wells Fargo Center without their late founder, Ed Snider, who died in April after a long battle with bladder cancer. A banner will be raised and a video tribute played before the game.
More good news comes Philly’s way with the return of Brayden Schenn, who finished serving his three-game suspension for his hit on Washington's T.J. Oshie in the playoffs. "It's never fun to be out of the lineup. You always want to be out there, trying to help your team," said Schenn. He was the Flyers' second-leading scorer with 26 goals last season. The Ducks will be playing their fifth consecutive road game to start the year and many of their problems have self-inflicted. Anaheim committed seven penalties, including five in the second period, to drop their fourth straight game on Tuesday. "We talked about it from the start of the season, that discipline was going to have to be a focal point for our group," Ducks coach Randy Carlyle said, according to the Orange County Register. "And if we weren't going to be more disciplined -- and our history has been that we've been one of the most penalized or a majority of this group has been one of the most penalized teams minor-wise in the league -- you're not going to be a quality team, a playoff team if you're going to continue to do that."
No reason to expect Anaheim’s fortunes to change here. Philly wins one for Ed Snider.
Will Rogers
Colorado vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning have been living on the edge, rallying from two goals down to defeat Detroit and New Jersey, before captain Steven Stamkos scored with 5.5 seconds left in regulation Tuesday and eventually beating Florida 4-3 in the shootout. Colorado boasts four power-play goals in the first three games but its penalty killers have struggled mightily, allowing two tallies in each contest in the team's 2-1-0 start.
Colorado: The Avalanche suffered their first loss of the season in Washington on Tuesday in a 3-0, allowing a pair of power play goals for the third consecutive game. In 14 penalty kills this season, Colorado has killed off just eight and sit in 29th place in the league rankings in that department. Center Nathan MacKinnon tops the team with four points (one goal, three assists) and four players own three points apiece, including defensemen Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie. Goalie Semyon Varlamov has yielded eight goals on 68 shots in his first two starts (4.00 GAA and .882 save percentage) and likely will be back in net Thursday.
Tampa Bay: An undefeated Tampa Bay team will be looking to close out a perfect four-game homestand to start the season in tonight’s contest with Colorado. LW Alex Killorn is off to the best start of his career with a goal in each of the first three games to go along with one assist to share the team lead in points with Stamkos (two goals) and Jonathan Drouin (one). Killorn has opened the season playing alongside center Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov with excellent results so far.
The pick: Colorado’s Varlamov owns an 8-3-2 career record (including two shutouts) and a .924 save percentage against the Lightning but his .882 save percentage to open the season should be a concern, as is Colorado’s poor penalty-killing unit. His opposite number, Ben Bishop, has not played well either, with a 3.40 GAA and an .889 save percentage. However, the Lightning have just found a way to win to open the season (see above) and the Avalanche become the Lightning’s latest ‘victim.’
Harry Bondi
MIAMI-FLORIDA +6 over Virginia Tech
Last week’s results took the luster off this match-up a bit, but we feel strongly that we have the better team with the better coach catching a touchdown. The reason this line is so inflated is because of the two teams’ results against North Carolina. VT beat the Heels two weeks ago, 34-3, while the Canes lost to NC, 20-13, last week. Therefore, everyone is assuming that means the Hokies are the better team. But VT’s win over NC came in an absolute monsoon during the weekend of Hurricane David. The powerful NC offense turned it over four times and had just 130 yards of total offense, but you can throw those stats out the window due to the conditions. Meanwhile, the Canes dropped a close decision to NC, but were in a very difficult spot, coming off a heartbreaking 20-19 loss to rival Florida State the week before. The last two years of this series, Miami has been a three-point favorite and they won by 10 points last year and 24 points in 2014. Now, with a rookie head coach, the Hokies are laying six points?
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Thursday night is on the Virginia Tech Hokies, laying the points to Miami of Florida.
In a nutshell, Miami is an extremely beat up team, it is playing on a short week, it has to travel, it is likely starting five true freshmen on defense and quarterback Brad Kaaya is playing through pain while his offensive line is deplorable.
So, when you add all that up, and put the Hurricanes up against a team that is 4-2 on the year and looking to move into a first place tie with North Carolina in the Coastal Division of the ACC, it can spell trouble.
If Kaaya is under pressure too much, you're going to see Virginia Tech's Greg Stroman with a pick, or two, in this game. The Hokies have the No. 2 overall defense in the ACC, allowing just 291.5 yards per game, so I expect the Canes to have a tough time tonight.
I do realize Miami has the No. 1 scoring defense, but this is a tired team that may get even more weary when the Hurricanes offense can't stay on the field and their stop unit is overworked.
2* VIRGINIA TECH
Brad Wilton
After losing in back-to-back seasons to South Alabama the past 2 years, look for the Troy Trojans to lay waste to the 3-3 Jags this Thursday night on South Alabama turf in Mobile.
Troy comes into this game with a 5-1 mark, including 4 straight wins since letting Clemson off the hook back on September 10th. The Trojans are also on a 4-1 spread run their past 5 games, and have covered all 3 of their road games this season. Their win and cover at Idaho puts them at 2-0 their last 2 chances as the road chalk since last year.
True, the Jaguars did step up the last time they were at home, as they upset San Diego State as the double-digit home underdog. That win should count for something, but since the linesmakers have placed South Alabama as the over a touchdown underdog, it sure looks like the linesmakers are baiting you into backing the Jaguars.
Don't do it! Troy seeking the Sun Belt title gets the double-revenge road win and cover tonight.
3* TROY
Chris Jordan
My free play for Thursday night is on the Sun Belt clash in Mobile, Alabama, where I like the home underdog. And now that you've read Brad Wilton's analysis on the pubic choice, let me give you insight on the sharp move in this game.
The South Alabama Jaguars are going to give the Troy Trojans a tough time tonight, as there are plenty of intangibles to look at in this game.
While Troy is atop the Sun Belt with a 3-0 mark, and S. Alabama is in the cellar at 0-3, I'm not that sold the Jags are as bad as their conference record indicates. They are 3-3 overall, with wins over Mississippi State and San Diego State earlier this season.
This being at home, on national TV and against the first place Trojans, I think we're going to see South Alabama's best game.
Remember that South Alabama went into Troy last year and won 24-18. In fact, the Jaguars have won the last two meetings.
This will be closer than expected.
5* S. ALABAMA
Bob Valentino
My free play is on BYU tonight, as I like the Cougars to give Boise State all it can handle on the blue turf.
There is no doubt the Cougars, who have three Power 5 wins, is easily the most difficult game remaining on Boise State's schedule. The Broncos are eyeing a perfect record and an invitation to the College Football Playoff, but the Cougars might be the last hurdle.
The culprit in the underdog play tonight is BYU running back Jamaal Williams, the No. 2 rusher in the nation with 942 yards. Williams is tied for No. 4 with 10 rushing touchdowns and set the school career rushing record at 3,468 last week.
And while I know Boise sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien ranks No. 28 in the nation with 270.3 passing yards per game, I like this kid Kai Nacua, the Cougars' senior safety who is tied for the nation high with five interceptions in seven games.
This won't be as easy as most think. Play the dog.
2* BYU
Brett Atkins
Interested in backing the Cougars in the underdog role this Thursday night when they hit the blue carpet in Boise, Idaho.
The Broncos have played 6 games, and they have won 6 games, but the issue is Boise State has failed the spread in each of their last 5 games - all as the favorite - and Boise has failed each of their last 6 at home versus the number.
BYU gritted out a 28-21 double-overtime win at home against Miss State last Thursday night, so they have had a little extra time to prepare for this game against a Boise State team they bested 35-24 last season early.
The Cougars have covered all 4 tries under new coach Kalani Sitake as the underdog, and they have played some pretty stiff competition as well.
Overall, BYU is 16-7 in the dog role since 2011, so why not grab the generous impost the linesmakers are handing out tonight?
Underdog play on the Cougars.
2* BYU
Ben Burns
Minnesota -175
The Wild have dominated the Leafs over the years and they should have the edge again tonight. The Leafs are off a hard-fought and potentially deflating loss last night; they took a 4-1 lead into the third period only to give up the tying goal in the final minute and then to lose in OT. They're only 12-22 (-4.8 ) the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games, and last night's figures to take more of a toll than some others probably did. While the price may initially seem a little steep, consider that the Wild were laying -235 the last time these teams faced each other - and that was at Toronto. They were -240 the last meeting here at Minnesota. The Wild won both those games, limiting the Leafs to a single goal in the two games combined. Knowing the hit the road for awhile after this, the Wild will be hungry to take care of business. They're already 2-0 here, scoring 10 goals in the process. They'll be licking their chops the prospect of facing a Toronto team which has allowed 10 goals in losing its two road games. With the Leafs now at 13-44 (-25) the past 2+ seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, I'm laying the wood with the rested home team.