Free Picks for Thursday, October 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Cappers Club
South Alabama vs. Georgia St
Play: South Alabama -2
The South Alabama Jaguars and the Georgia State Panthers face off on Thursday night, and the Jaguars seem to have figured it out, and have the value.
South Alabama struggled to start the season, but they have seemed to figure it out in the last couple of weeks.
Two weeks ago they pulled a big upset of Troy and in their last game they played Louisiana-Monroe and were able to win 33-23.
The biggest change has been the way Dallas Davis has been playing. Against ULM he threw for 317 yards and three touchdowns.
I would expect he will have no issue doing the same thing in this game against a Panthers team that let Troy put up 34 points on them.
The Panthers won't be able to keep up with the Jaguars offense.
A trend to note. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Vernon Croy
Oregon State (+23) over Stanford
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and the Cardinal have only beat the Beavers by more than 23 points once in their last 4 meetings, and that one big loss was by 24 points. The Beavers can run the ball, averaging 4.7 yards per run at home this season, and they have averaged 156 rypg at home this season. The Beavers ability to run the ball will make this a lower-scoring game than many might think, which will also allow them to cover this large number at home. The Cardinal have allowed 401 yards per game on the road this season, and they have struggled in true road games with a 1-2 record losing to USC by 18-points and San Diego State by 3-points, while barely beating Utah by 3 points. This is also a look ahead game for the Cardinal who have Washington State on deck next week, so play Oregon State ATS.
Indian Cowboy
Eastern Michigan (+7) over Northern Illinois
We go for five straight free pick winners after a blowout winner on Old Dominion and Western Kentucky easily going 'Over' the posted total. Per this game, you have a Eastern Michigan team that is picking up some steam as a strong ATS cover of late. Don't look so much at the 2-5 straight up record but look closer at the fact that this team's strength is their defense, which is a top 35 in overall defense and top 10 in passing yards allowed. On top of that, this team has an offense that features a top 35 passing attack and an overall defense that is top 30 in points allowed. They come off an impressive effort against Western Michigan, losing 17-20 in overtime but prior to that had covered against Army, losing 27-28 as a 4.5 point underdog, losing to Toledo by 5 points as a 13.5 point underdog and losing to Kentucky 20-24 as well as a 14 point underdog. In fact, Eastern Michigan is 5-2 ATS on the year and has not had back-to-back ATS non-covers all year. This team lost to Northern Illinois last year 24-31 in overtime and they have an even better defense and passing attack this year. Northern Illinois for as good as they are, they come off a huge win against Bowling Green and will face a tough defense this week with a possible let down and they have a look-ahead with Toledo on deck as well. We like Eastern Michigan to hang tough and likely lose by a field goal this week.
DAVE COKIN
SOUTH ALABAMA AT GEORGIA ST
PLAY: GEORGIA ST PK
Toss up Sun Belt battle tonight between South Alabama and Georgia State. Those who like to use comparative results as a tool will probably want the Jaguars. After all, they pulled the upset at Troy just a couple weeks ago. Georgia State, meanwhile, got fairly well dominated last week at home by the Trojans.
But I’m not much of a comparative results guy and generally prefer to focus on other aspects of a matchup. I gave the Panthers a bit of a pass for last week’s effort. They were returning home from a beautiful 3-0 road trip and were catching Troy at the wrong time. I don’t think there’s much question the Trojans were in a very foul mood off the shocking home loss to South Alabama and Troy just wasn’t going to be denied last weekend.
I can see this game being close to a rerun of last year’s duel between the Jaguars and Panthers. Georgia State led by a TD well into the final quarter. But South Alabama, after doing almost nothing on offense the entire game, put together a brilliant length of the field drive to tie things up. Then, following a shanked Panthers punt that gave the Jags great field position, a short field goal with two seconds remaining put South Alabama into the win column.
One thing that caught my eye here was the reaction of Georgia State QB Conner Manning following last week’s loss. Manning made no excuses and pretty much put the blame for the loss on his own shoulders. That’s they type of leadership I like to see displayed and I’m expecting a rebound here. It also appears that perhaps the Panthers got a little full of themselves following the perfect 3-0 road swing and accepted too many pats on the backs in the process. Look for a more intense attitude tonight.
This game power rates as a coin flip, and that’s really the primary reason I left this in the opinion category rather than including it on the card. But if you’re looking for a little recreational action on this ESPNU hookup, my choice would be Georgia State.
Tommy Brunson
The Eagles of Eastern Michigan tote their 2-5 mark into Huskie Stadium here on Thursday as they face 5-2 Northern Illinois.
Based on the fact none of Eastern's last 12 losses have come by more than 7 points means they should once again be right there against a Northern team that has beaten them straight up in 15 of the last 16 series meetings, including wins in each of the last 9 (7-2 against the spread).
The Eagles have gone 5-2 against the spread this season, and they are 15-4 now against the spread in their last 19 lined games. They have also covered 9 of their last 10 games as the road dog, largely because their defense has been able to limit the opposition to just 20-points per game.
Last year's meeting in Ypsilanti saw NIU squeak by in overtime, 31-24, which tells me that Eastern Michigan knows full well they can compete with this Huskies team once again this season on the road.
Mid-week MAC games usually result in some wild action, and tonight I think the wise move is taking the points with this "live" dog.
Eastern Michigan takes it down to the wire.
2* EASTERN MICHIGAN
Jack Brayman
My free play is a lookahead to Saturday, as I like the Mountain West battle in Laramie, where the Wyoming Cowboys host the New Mexico Lobos.
I think more than anything with this game that stood out to me was why in the hell Wyoming opened a 3-point favorite, and was moved to a 2-point underdog. Who is betting the Lobos, and why?
The Lobos have said they're plan to continue their two-QB system, which is nothing special. They have some injuries, like every team this time of year, and so does Wyoming. But nothing significant. And there is nothing on New Mexico's side to make them look like a better team right now, than they were a couple days ago.
The reason I'm giving you this early is because it is very possible we see this line come back. And as long as the oddsmakers saw something to make Wyoming a 3-point favorite on Sunday, I'll side with the experts.
5* WYOMING
Joey Juice
This game has defensive struggle written all over it.
The Ravens simply play good defense at home, and that is why Baltimore is 11-5 Under their last 16 home games.
Miami, not a huge scoring threat themselves, especially in week 8 performances, they are currently 14-3 Under last 17 in Week 8 games.
The Dolphins are also, 5-1 Under so far this season.
Under is the play.
3* MIAMI-BALTIMORE UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Celtics plus the points as they look for a quick payback against a Milwaukee team that downed them on the parquet floor back on the 18th of this month.
In that game, Milwaukee took a 108-100 decision as the +1 1/2 point road underdog, as it was the Bucks first game of the season and they happened to catch Boston fresh off an opening night road loss at Cleveland in a game they lost Gordon Hayward for the season with that gruesome leg injury.
Since that loss, Boston has claimed wins and covers in each of their last pair of contests, and if they don't stretch that streak to 3 in a row, I sure do like them to at least take this one down to the wire.
The C's are 5-1 against the spread their last 6 games played on the Bucks floor, and now that coach Brad Stevens has started to find the right mix for his new lineup, they should be a very live underdog tonight.
Boston plus the points.
2* BOSTON
Chris Jordan
My free pick is for tonight is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Boston Celtics.
The Milwaukee Bucks have traveled to Boston, and hosted Cleveland, Portland and Charlotte. The Bucks are 3-1 after beating the Celtics, Blazers and Hornets. And they're still enjoying the friendly confines of home.
Tonight is a celebration of the franchise's 50th anniversary celebration and will feature throwback jerseys.
Milwaukee will play its fourth straight home game, while the Celtics are playing just their third road game of the season, after a blowout win of the New York Knicks on Tuesday.
And I got news for you, if the Celtics couldn't stop Giannis Antetokounmpo in Boston, you can't expect them to in Milwaukee. After just a couple of weeks, he looks more like an MVP-candidate than Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Steph Curry. Yeah, I said it.
Antetokounmpo is averaging a league-best 36.5 points through four games and in addition to setting a new career high with 44-spot against the Blazers in Saturday's 113-111 victory, he surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's record for points through four games by scoring 147
The Bucks will also get a boost from the return of point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who returned to practice Wednesday without limitations, after dealing with an ankle injury.
While I know the Celtics have won 4 of the last 6 meetings, the lost the first meeting in Boston, 108-100 on Oct. 18. Plus, the Bucks have covered nine of their last 13 against teams from the Atlantic Division.
Lay the home chalk tonight.
4* BUCKS
John Martin
Mavs vs. Grizzlies
Play: Mavs +8
I was on the Mavericks last night against the Grizzlies and I'm going to back them again tonight. The Mavs won that game 104-93 for their first win of the season. So at 1-4, they cannot afford to take nights off. That's why I'm not concerned about a letdown despite the fact that they are playing the Grizzlies again tonight. The Grizzlies are still riding high following back-to-back wins over the Warriors and Rockets, which still has them getting too much respect from the books again tonight as 8-point favorites. Dallas is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Memphis.
Scott Spreitzer
Hawks vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls -2½
The Bulls aim for their first win of the season when they host the struggling Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA and they allow 110 ppg, not a good combination. Even in their lone win, Atlanta gave up 111 points to Dallas. The Hawks haven't been afforded the easiest schedule to start the season with this marking their 5th straight road game with their first trip home not coming until Friday night. Meanwhile, the Bulls have already faced Toronto, San Antonio, and Cleveland, certainly toughening this squad up a bit. Atlanta, like a lot of teams, has no one to truly matchup with Bulls 7-foot forward Lauri Markkanen, who takes "bigs" outside where he's drained 10 of 22 3-pointers thus far. Markkanen helps unclog the lane and while the Bulls couldn't overcome the three opponents mentioned above, we do believe they'll find interior success against the Hawks, carrying the Bulls to their first win of the season, covering the reasonable spread in the process.
Jack Jones
Toledo vs. Ball State
Play: Toledo -24
I don't normally lay big numbers in any sport, but I will from time to time in college football. And I think laying 24 points with Toledo against Ball State is warranted Thursday night.
Toledo is the best team in the MAC this season. The Rockets are 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming on the road to the undefeated Miami Hurricanes. They are 3-0 in conference play, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game.
Ball State is just 2-5 this season. The two wins came at home against lowly UAB and FCS foe Tennessee Tech. Then injuries really hit these teams hard with the losses of their starting quarterback and running back. And the Cardinals have gone 0-3 in conference play, losing by an average of 42.3 points per game.
Ball State lost 3-55 at Western Michigan, 3-31 at Akron and 9-56 at home against Central Michigan. We saw Toledo beat Central Michigan 30-10 on the road and Akron 48-21 at home to just compare their two common opponents. Given those results, it's easy to see why Toledo should have no problem covering this 24-point spread Thursday night.
Toledo is 7-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last three seasons. Ball State is 1-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons. The Rockets are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. The Cardinals are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Dave Price
Clippers vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -2
The Los Angeles Clippers are starting to get too much love from the books due to their 3-0 start. But home wins over the Suns and Jazz and a 'road' win against the Lakers in Staples Center aren't looking that impressive right now. This will be by far the toughest game for the Clippers yet as they travel to face an upstart Blazers team that has been dominant ever since trading for Jusuf Nurkic prior to the deadline last year. The Blazers are 3-1 with their only loss coming by 3 points on the road to the Bucks. The Clippers are 33-61 ATS in their last 94 games off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Blazers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Larry Ness
Clippers vs. Blazers
Play: Clippers +2½
The 3-0 LA Clippers are getting ready to battle the 3-1 Portland Trailblazers on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
LA most recently beat a tough Utah Jazz team at home 102-84 on Tuesday, whiile Portland enters off a 103-93 victory over New Orleans on Tuesday.
But if recent history is any precedence, then the Clippers have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won six straight in this series, including taking all three last year.
In the early going LA is averaging 113.3 PPG, while ranked No. 1 defensively in conceding 88 PPG. Blake Griffin is leading the charge with 26.7 points, 9.7 boards and 4.3 assists per game. DeAndre Jordan adds 10.3 points and 18.3 boards, while Lou WIlliams contributes 13 points and 5.3 assists.
Portland is averaging 112.8 PPG and conceding 94.5. Damian Lillard is averaging 21 points and 5.8 assists per game, while CJ McCollum posts 25.7 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Portland is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 against good defensive teams which concede less than 98 PPG, while LA is interestingly, 12-8 ATS in its last 20 after playing to three or more consecutive “unders.”
The Clippers’ improved defense will ultimately prove to be the difference maker in the end in my opinion. I’ll recommend a second look at LA in this matchup.