Ben Burns
Kings vs. Canadiens
Play: Under 5½
Since 2010, the Kings have visited Montreal five times. All five of those games had O/U lines of five. This evening, while we do have to lay a little extra juice for the privilege, we're able to get an O/U line of 5.5. In what should be a relatively low-scoring affair, I feel that extra half goal is offering us some value.
Last year's game here had a final score of 4-1, landing right on the number. The year before? A 3-0 win for the Kings.
This marks the Kings' fourth straight game away from LA. Their last two games have produced exactly five combined goals, each staying below the total. Note that the "under" is 19-6-6 the past 31 times that they played their previous three or more games on the road. Those stats should have a great shot at improving tonight. Take a look at the Under 5.5 goals.
Jim Feist
Dallas at Memphis
Pick: Under 198
Dallas still looking for its first win of the season after an 0-4 start. The Mavs have been getting outscored by an averae of 14.3ppg. Dallas also 0-4 against the spread. Memphis has yet to lose after a 3-0 start both S/U and ATS. The Grizzlies are averaging 104ppg and allowing just 94 ppg. This is the kind of game that the Grizzlies will need to win if they want to endure this long season. This is a down Dallas team that shouldn't have much of a chance here. Despite not scoring a lot of points thus far, these clubs have gone OVER in six of the last eight meetings in Memphis. The OVER is also 12-4-1 the last 17 total meetings. We should see a rare sub-200 total in the NBA here and I'm going UNDER.
Power Sports
New Orleans vs. Sacramento
Pick: New Orleans -1
Neither of these two teams are off to particularly inspiring starts (both 1-3 SU), yet they'll find themselves on national television (TNT) against one another Thursday night. The Pelicans, likely w/o Anthony Davis here, are off a 10-pt loss in Portland the other night (Tuesday) where they lost Davis (to a knee injury) in the first quarter. Despite that, and facing an early double-digit deficit, they actually rallied to take the lead heading into the fourth quarter. That's certainly worth noting. Meanwhile, Sacramento also fell into a huge early hole (22 points!) in its last game, only for a rally to similarly fall short. But that loss, to previously winless Phoenix, has to be considered an embarrassing one. I consider this to be a great price in which to fade them.
With Davis out, DeMarcus Cousins is left to carry the Pelicans' load. He scored 39 points and grabbed 13 rebounds vs. Portland and has recorded a double-double in every game so far. Tonight will be a special game for him as he faces his former team. One area where I have to believe the Pelicans have to start improving is three-point shooting. So far, they're connecting at only a 29.9% clip in their three road games. Sacramento is - shockingly - allowing a 31.2 FG% from behind the arc thus far. That's going to change as well.
The Kings loss to Phoenix came two nights after they were blown out in Denver, 96-79. They did cover their only previous home game, but they were fortunate there to be getting Houston one night removed from its big upset of the Warriors on Opening Night. Their lone SU victory thus far came against Dallas, who up until last night was winless. I projected the Kings as one of the league's very worst teams coming into the year and I've seen nothing thus far to make me come off that viewpoint.
Brandon Lee
Mavs vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -8
This is your classic home-and-home situation where I think the team that lost the first meeting is going to head home and lay it on the opposition. Memphis didn't show up for last night's game in Dallas with the energy you need to win on the road in the NBA and it was understandable coming off back-to-back wins over the Warriors and Rockets. The Mavericks on the other hand were 100% locked in at home trying to avoid starting the season 0-5. Dallas ended up winning by 9-points, but that could have went either way down the stretch. I look for a much different Memphis team to take the floor at home, especially on the defensive side of the ball. That should be more than enough to win here by double-digits against the rebuilding Mavs.
Teddy Davis
Celtics vs. Bucks
Play: Celtics +4
Let's take the Celtics here in a rare early revenge game for this part of the season. The Bucks caught the Celtics at the right time playing them coming on a back to back spot, but the game before was when Hayward broke his leg that completely devastated this team.
Well now we are a little more than a week in and the Celtics are getting more comfortable with their younger players stepping up and filling his void.
The Bucks are 3-1, but their final game was misleading against the Hornets as it was a lot closer than the final score indicates. The Bucks are also now dealing with a injury to stater Malcolm Brogdon last years rookie of the year.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia vs. Ottawa
Pick: Philadelphia +101
Philadelphia has won four of the last five meetings with Ottawa and will try to bounce back from Tuesday's 6-2 loss to Anaheim when Brian Elliott saved 19-of-25 shots for the Flyers. Michael Neuvirth will be back in goal tonight and he has a .957 save percentage and 1.36 goals against average in three games this season. The Senators lost to Los Angeles in a 3-2 shootout that included a goal by the Kings when Ottawa goalie Mike Condon misplayed the puck behind the net. Condon made 41 saves but his team lost its third in four games. All three games between these teams last season went to overtime or shootout. Craig Anderson is expected to start tonight for Ottawa and he has a .915 save percentage and 2.48 goals-against average. Ottawa has lost five of its last six home games and the Flyers are 8-1 after scoring two goals or fewer their previous game dating to last season.
Rob Vinciletti
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois
Play: Northern Illinois -7
The Huskies have owned this series over Eastern Michigan winning 9 straight. They are 9-2 ats as a favorite of 10 or less off a 10+ point spread win and have covered 6 of 7 vs losing teams. Eastern Michigan is on a short week on the road after losing a heart breaker 17-14 at home to rival Western Michigan in overtime. They are 9-76 vs winning teams and have failed to cover 6 of 7 on Thursdays. It will be hard for them to get up for this game.
Alex Smart
Dolphins at Ravens
Play: Dolphins
Let me start off by saying I was never a big fan of Jay Cutler, and was not impressed by the Fins off season signing of him. While you never like to see a player injured, I must say that this injury to Cutler is a blessing in disguise for Miami, as I believe they will do much better with Matt Moore under center. Last week Moore engineered a 17 point 4th quarter comeback, and navigated his team to a win vs the NY Jets. You know, Moore is no bum, when it comes to delivering cash to his bakers he's s stud QB as his 20-9 ATS overall record would indicate including a 10-4 ATS record in away tilts. Tonight the Dolphins go up against a less than reliable favorite with a ton of issues that continues to surrender yards and points in large chunks. This version of the Ravens thanks to injuries, QB Flacco's inconsistencies (or both) and just bad coaching, is not up to par with past incarnations of the franchise and should not be mistaken as such. This is not the Ray Lewis era, its far different and as of right now does not deserve our respect on this suspect line. BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS L/9 off 1 or more straight overs. Harbaugh is 12-22 ATS L/33 in October games, with the them and their opponents virtually tied in point production. Ravens have lost 4 of their L/5 overall! Dolphins QB Moore in his NFL career is, 6-0 ATS against opposition with a .400 or better records of consecutive SU/ATS losses. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Baltimore - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 16-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.
Bruce Marshall
Ducks at Panthers
Pick: Ducks
Not sure why the Ducks have to be the underdog tonight unless citing the zig-zag NHL theory. But Anaheim has back-to-back 6-2 wins under its belt and looks to finally be hitting stride with Ryan Getzlaf and the offense back in gear. Meanwhile the Panthers bring no momentum into Davie tonight after getting shelled 5-1 at previously-struggling Montreal.
SPORTS WAGERS
BALTIMORE -3 over Miami
The Dolphins are quietly 4-2 after a 31-28 home win over the Jets but there might not be a more deceiving record in the NFL. Make no mistake, the Fish are an awful football team and the numbers back it up. Miami is 28th in total DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) at -25.5%. That’s keeping company with the likes of the Bears, Cardinals, and 49ers, all teams nobody is gushing over this week like they are the Dolphins. The Fish don’t do anything well either, as a further breakdown shows their offense is 29th in DVOA, the defense is 22nd. All four of Miami’s wins have come by less than a touchdown against some very weak competition, as the Dolphins have played the 24th easiest schedule so far this season. The road ahead is rocky for the Fish, as they are predicted to face the second toughest schedule the rest of the way. Quarterback Jay Cutler is out for the Dolphins but it doesn’t really matter who is under center, as they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Fish can’t run the ball, ranking 28th in adjusted line yards and they’ve been stuffed at the line 28% of the time, which is good for 30th of 32 teams. Finally, the Dolphins have been on the fortunate end of some very poor field goal kicking, as opposing kickers are just 5 for 12 against them this season. For a team that wins so many close games, a big time correction is coming and it’s not to the good.
For all the flack the Ravens have taken this season for their inconsistency, the one consistency has been a very good defense. This is still an elite defensive unit in the NFL that ranks fifth in total defensive DVOA while the special teams are also fantastic, ranking second only to the Lions. The Ravens market value is at a season-low after losing four of their last five games. Quarterback Joe Flacco and the offense have taken the brunt of the criticism and they should but the reality is that Baltimore is probably better than its 3-4 record would indicate. The Ravens have some forgivable losses this season. They were blown out by the Jaguars in London but we put little stock in what happens across the pond. Rather than get a bye like every other team that’s played overseas, the Ravens were put in a very bad spot against the Steelers just a week later. Finally, their loss to the Bears came after a lost fumble in overtime, thus, if the ball bounces its way maybe Baltimore wins that game. Last week the late money came in on the Ravens as they traveled to Minnesota and we responded accordingly by removing them from our board. That steam would suggest that many in the market were left to rip up their tickets after an eight-point loss to the Vikings, making it very hard to come back on Baltimore this week.
SPORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA -1½ +226 over Anaheim
We don’t play favorites in the NHL straight up because the alternate option is so much better. We also pay attention to the line. In that regard, Florida opened up as a small favorite here (between -109 and -115) but has been bet up to its current price at the time of this writing to -128. Having a somewhat good understanding of how the market perceives each team, that increase in the line is curious from our vantage point.
You see, Anaheim has pedigree and creditability. They have been a force for years and were projected to be a force again this year. Furthermore, the Ducks are coming off back-to-back, 6-2 victories over the Habs and Flyers with the last victory coinciding with the return of Captain Ryan Getzlaf. They also have John Gibson in goal while the Panthers are forced to use backup James Reimer. That’s the Ducks story.
The Panthers story is different. They have very little market credibility and less pedigree. Florida has also lost four of its last five games. Aside from that, nobody follows this team. Their NHL paraphernalia has the lowest sales among the 31 NHL teams. So, to recap, in its favor, Anaheim has current form, pedigree, popularity, star power, and goaltending while the Panthers have nothing working in their favor. We have a hard time believing that the market is pounding the Panthers here, as the line increase would suggest. Instead, we see something far more sinister happening. We sense a big time enticement by the oddsmakers to get behind the Ducks here because we can assure you that it is not the general public that is moving this number. Sometimes the line dictates the play and this is a classic example of that. The Ducks plus a price appears to be far too appetizing.
San Jose +104 over BOSTON
OT included. There are so many things not to like about the Bruins here. First, they’ve been off for five days, which is a break that is not beneficial. It’s too long this early on the season and chances are that the B’s will not be sharp to start. Aside from that, the Bruins are usually the second best team on the ice. While most teams have played between eight and 10 games, the Bruins have played just seven so they have not been able to get any kind of flow or routine going yet. They’ve also played the 28th ranked strength of schedule and are 1-4 against top-16 teams. The B’s three wins have occurred against Vancouver, Arizona and Nashville. Boston has created the least amount of scoring chances per game in the NHL. Boston had a 4-1 lead over Buffalo in its last game and lost 5-4 after being outshout 42-31. Frankly, we’re not seeing one reason that they should be favored over San Jose.
The Sharks can exploit a weak defense with the best of them and that’s precisely what they’ll encounter here. There are too many seasoned NHL players on the Sharks for the Bruins to deal with. We all know how dangerous Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski are on the Sharks top line but adding Joonas Donskoi was a stroke of genius. That kid can play. The second line featuring Logan Couture at center has been dominating puck possession too. The Sharks bottom six features guys like Kevin Labanc, Joel Ward, Tino Meier and Mikkel Boedker among others and they, too, are creating chances. We haven’t even mentioned Brett Burns. Lastly, give a goaltending edge to the Sharks with Martin Jones over Anton Khodubin and then instantly give us the Sharks plus a tag.
The bets are as follows:
San Jose -1½ +289 for 1 unit
San Jose +104 for 1 unit
Arizona +150 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The best thing for the Rangers right now will be to get out of town and they’ll do exactly that after this game, as they head to Montreal for a game on Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday. The Rags have dropped four of five on this current six-game home stand. Being at home for such an extended stretch is about the worst thing possible for a struggling team. Instead of hanging out together while being on the road, they all head home after practice. Losing is frustrating enough and we can assure you that this road trip can’t come soon enough. The Rags have other issues too. First, they have allowed the second most scoring chances per game (23.4) in the league. That’s an alarming number that neither Henrik Lundqvist (900 save %) nor Andrej Pavelec (.853 save %) has been able to bail them out of. Pavelec is tonight’s starter but let us remind you that he was Winnipeg’s fourth string goaltender last year when the Jets goaltending was awful. The Rangers Corsi numbers, both individually and as a team are awful too. Only Mika Zibanejad has good Corsi numbers while the rest are average or well below.
Defensively, Ryan McDonagh is dinged by a negative goal differential, negative penalty differential and a lack of offense thus far. Brandan Smith Smith Brady Skjei have struggled in the puck possession game with a minus-18 and minus-31 Corsi differential, respectively. A lot of those bad defensive numbers might be driven by the Helter Skelter changes of defense pairings executed by Alain Vigneault but it is what it is. The Rags have lost six of their last seven with their only win over that span coming against Nashville in a game the Rags mustered 15 shots on net in. To give you an idea how bad the Rags are playing, they are second in the NHL in shooting % so they’ve had great luck around the net.
Poor Arizona. Without a win yet this season, here’s a team that’s playing well enough to win but its goaltending has been horrible and so has its puck luck. While we do not subscribe to the “due to win” or “due to lose angle”, we know for sure that the Coyotes are not the worst team in hockey. The Coyotes played an incredibly solid possession game against the Islanders on Tuesday, but unfortunately allowed a John Tavares hat trick to the tune of a 5-3 loss. The ‘Yotes have now outshot five of their last six opponents. They outshot the Islanders 35-25 and lost. When you are possessing the puck more than your opponent and outshooting them too, the wins will follow. Adding to Arizona’s misery is that Antti Raanta has been out of the Coyotes net since Oct. 12 after sustaining a lower-body injury. Louis Domingue has been doing the most heavy lifting for the Coyotes since Raanta went down, but he’s 0-5-0 with an .858 save percentage. Tuesday's game didn't help Domingue's status either, as he allowed five goals on 25 Islanders shots. We’re not going to worry about that though. Our focus remains playing value over results and Arizona is playing well enough to be at least a .500 team but their poor results have them grossly underpriced.
The bets are as follows:
Arizona -1½ +382 for 1 unit
Arizona +149 for 1 unit
VANCOUVER +127 over Washington
OT included. We insisted how bad the Capitals were earlier this year and owe our readers an apology because we were wrong. They’re worse than we thought. You see, the Caps PDO (a luck driven metric that combines Save % + Shooting %) is 1.017, which ranks #1 in the entre league. In other words, the Caps puck luck has been off the charts but they only have four wins in nine games. If their luck wasn’t so great, we’d be discussing a two-win team. Washington has one win over its past four games, a luck-driven 4-3 OT victory over Detroit. The Caps scored with a two-man advantage with less than a minute left in the third to tie it. Again, this is a top-heavy team. After its top six forwards, the rest of the players on the Caps, including the defense (John Carlson is the exception), couldn’t crack most NHL lineups. Stay out of the box against the Caps and their chances of losing are far greater than winning. The Caps are one of this year’s false favorites and must be faded as road chalk until the market catches up.
The Canucks return home from a very successful road trip that saw them win four of five on the East Coast. The Canucks are strong defensively, as they rank 6th in the NHL in scoring chances against per game. In the final three games of said trip, Vancouver allowed 21, 22 and 29 shots on net respectively against Buffalo, Detroit and Minnesota. There is an angle in hockey that bettors like to play, which is to bet against a team returning home from a four-game trip or longer. That angle has some merit for sure but it’s never been a good one against the Canucks. That’s not saying that it won’t work here but it’s not a reason to bet against the Canucks. What we do know is Vancouver is playing very decent hockey with the metrics and results to back it. Written off for dead before the season started, the Canucks are playing with a chip on their shoulder and are absolutely worth getting behind here.
The bets are as follows:
Vancouver -1½ +347 for 1 unit
Vancouver +127 for 1 unit
Doug Upstone
Toledo vs. Ball State
Play: Toledo -25
With Toledo on the rise at 6-1 and Ball State fading into the sunset without their regular starting quarterback and at 2-5, the Rockets have soared from -23 to -25. This is a large number to back on Toledo as a road team, nevertheless, the Cardinals have 15 total points in past three games. Given where the teams are, its either Toledo or Pass.
Jimmy Boyd
Stanford vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon State +21
I think there's more than enough value here with Oregon State catching 3 touchdowns at home in a prime time spot against Pac-12 rival Stanford. The Beavers were expected to take a big step forward this season, but it just didn't click and head coach Gary Anderson was released from the program. That came prior to their contest against Colorado back on October 14th and the team really responded well under interim head coach Corey Hall. They had one of their better offensive showings with 569 yards and 30 first down, while the defense held the Buffaloes to just 385 yards. They gave up a late score to fall 33-36 and the difference in the game was the 4 field goals the Beavers had to settle for. That was a real confidence booster for this team and I think we get their best effort here at home against a ranked Stanford team. Oregon State could catch a break here with Bryce Love listed as questionable for the Cardinal, but even if he plays I think the Beavers offense can provide a big enough spark to keep this within the number. This is not your typical Stanford defense. The Cardinal are just 98th against the run (195.4 ypg) and 68th against the pas (220.6 ypg). Last time out Stanford crushed the Ducks 49-7, but are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a win by more than 20 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a cover. Beavers are 7-3 ATS last 10 at home and a surprising 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a conference opponent.
ASA
Toledo Rockets (-25) over Ball State
This is a very big number but it is not without merit! The Rockets should absolutely pound the Cardinals. Ball State has been hurt badly by the loss of QB Riley Neal as the Cards have been outscored by an average margin of 42 points per game their last 3 games. The Cardinals offense can’t get anything going without Neal and now they also lost running back James Gilbert to injury and the QB situation has been further hurt by the injury to Jack Milas who is doubtful for tonight’s game. If Ball State could at least rely on their defense that would help but, trouble is, they can not! The Cardinals run defense is allowing nearly 200 yards per game in conference action. Also, Ball State’s pass defense is allowing 250.2 passing yards per game in the last 5 games. The Cardinals have turned the ball over 12 times in their last 5 games and have forced a total of just 1 turnover in their past 3 games. Toledo has won the turnover battle 6 to 1 in their last 3 games and the Rockets have run for 645 yards in the last two games! The Toledo aerial attack has had one bad game out of 7 this season! In the other 6 games they’ve averaged 326.7 passing yards per game! Look for the Rockets to pile up the yardage again here and Ball State has averaged only 5 points per game in their 3 games without Neal at QB. That turns this one into a road rout! Rockets have covered 7 of 8 as a road favorite and Cardinals only 6-14 ATS as a home dog. Lay the big number with Toledo early Thursday evening!
Jack Brayman
My free play is a lookahead to Saturday, as I like the Mountain West battle in Laramie, where the Wyoming Cowboys host the New Mexico Lobos.
I think more than anything with this game that stood out to me was why in the hell Wyoming opened a 3-point favorite, and was moved to a 2-point underdog. Who is betting the Lobos, and why?
The Lobos have said they're plan to continue their two-QB system, which is nothing special. They have some injuries, like every team this time of year, and so does Wyoming. But nothing significant. And there is nothing on New Mexico's side to make them look like a better team right now, than they were a couple days ago.
The reason I'm giving you this early is because it is very possible we see this line come back. And as long as the oddsmakers saw something to make Wyoming a 3-point favorite on Sunday, I'll side with the experts.
5* WYOMING