Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, October 27th, 2016

Vernon Croy

Buffalo (+17.5) over Akron

This pick falls into one of my top college football systems and there are just too many points for this Zips team to cover on the road Thursday night. Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when playing a team with a winning record on the road, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Zips. The Zips are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Thursday night games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after putting up more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Buffalo has actually allowed the 5th least amount of passing yards in all of college football, and they are coming off a 37-point loss, so I look for their effort level to be extremely high after that embarrassing loss. Play Buffalo ATS with confidence.

Rob Vinciletti

Clippers vs. Blazers
Play: Clippers -2

The Clips are healthy and will look for Playoff loss revenge here tonight against Portland. The Clips went up 2-0 last year and then lost 4 straight. They have this one circled and the Blazers just won their home opener against Utah. Look for the Blazers to get Clipped tonight.

Tony George

Ohio vs. Toledo
Play: Ohio +17

Frank Solich is a great coach, and I have banked on him all year with the Ohio Bobcats. I have faded Ohio once as well and cashed on them as favs twice. Toledo is beat up with injury issues on the OL and off a huge emotional win where they got lucky with a key turnover by Central Michigan in that game. Ohio U full healthy in backfield on offense, QB Maxwell playing smart ball and RB Brown a big boost since returning to the lineup. Solich is always good in big games as well. Ohio struggled against Kent, had -3 in turnovers and could not convert a first down to save their life in a game they overlooked, it will not happen again under Solich in this game. The sharps in Vegas hit this at 17 and now it dropped a point, I am still on them at this number to cover it, and it is climbing back up.

While Toledo is an offensive high octane machine, their OL injury issues concern me. Toledo is also a cover machine going 17-5 ATS their last 22 games overall, but I sense a spot here that gets tight for them. Ohio's strength is their defense, and they are #1 team in the MAC in points allowed on defense. While I think Toledo gets the win, it will not come easy against a team who aggressively pursues the QB and has 29 QB sacks YTD. Going with the Big Dog in this one.

Sean Murphy

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs
Play: Panthers -115

Things won't get any easier for the struggling Leafs here as they welcome the Panthers who are coming off a tough 3-2 loss in Pittsburgh two nights ago.

Florida has struggled since opening with back-to-back wins, dropping three of its last four games overall. But this looks like a fine opportunity for the Panthers to get back on track against a Leafs squad that just can't keep the puck out of its own net.

Keep in mind, the Panthers have absolutely owned this series over the years. The Leafs have won just two of the last 10 meetings.

Toronto continues to battle hard, but with Frederik Andersen struggling mightily between the pipes, the offense is up against it on a nightly basis. In order to win games they need to score at least four goals it seems, and on some nights, even that isn't enough.

Here, I look for the Panthers to turn in a strong defensive performance as they try to bounce back from a blown opportunity in Pittsburgh (they led that game 2-0).

Ben Burns

Dallas vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Winnipeg

I successfully backed the Stars when these teams faced each other at Dallas on Tuesday. With the venue shifting to Winnipeg, I like the Jets' chances for some immediate payback. While they have yet to win away from Winnipeg, the Jets have a pair of victories on home ice. The Stars are dealing with a number of banged-up forwards at the moment. While it didn't hurt them on Tuesday, don't be surprised if those injuries catch up with them tonight. Consider Winnipeg.

Jim Feist

Clippers at Blazers
Pick: Over

The L.A. Clippers love to run and gun under Doc Rivers and they head to Portland, another team that love to run. The Blazers have a strong backcourt that pushes the tempo, going four straight home games over the total. The Over is 18-5 in the Blazers last 23 games following a spread win. The over is 14-6-2 in the last 22 meetings in Portland between these foes.

Scott Spreitzer

Celtics vs. Bulls
Play: Celtics -1

Chicago signed Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo and Robin Lopez but lost Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol. Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic return in Fred Hoiberg's second year as head coach after a 42-40 season. Mirotic is probable tonight with a back injury. Boston has the luxury of having a game under its belt with Wednesday's 122-117 win over Brooklyn when the Celtics failed to cover after leading by 23 points. Isaiah Thomas led the Celtics with 25 points and nine assists and Jae Crowder added 21 points. Al Horford scored 11 points and grabbed five rebounds in his first game for Boston. It will take time for the Bulls to find the right chemistry with all the changes and they still have to improve their three-point shooting and Wade and Rondo don't appear to be the answer to that problem. Boston has an incredible 40-17-1 ATS record when playing in the second of back-to-backs. Look for that trend to continue.

Zack Cimini

Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern
Pick: Georgia Southern

Sometimes in smaller conferences the dominant team can be a bit overvalued. Appalachian State has cruised thus far in the Sun Belt, but should face one of their toughest challenges Thursday. Georgia Southern has played below their capabilities for the majority of the season. Expect them to rise to the occasion against Appalachian State.

Larry Ness

Washington vs. Atlanta
Pick: Washington

The Washington Wizards visit the Hawks in Atlanta for a game in which Dwight Howard will make his Atlanta debut. The Hawks signed the center to a three-year, $70 million deal in the offseason after incumbent center Al Horford took less money to sign with the Boston Celtics. Atlanta went 48-34 last season to finish fourth in the Eastern Conference but were swept by Cleveland in the second round. The Hawks are hopeful that the 30-year-old Howard can revive his career after he seemed uninspired in Houston last year, averaging 13.7 PPG, his lowest scoring average since his 2004-05 rookie campaign. Howard has averaged 17.8 points, 12.7 rebounds and 2.1 blocks over his 12-year career. Jeff Teague signed with Indiana in free agency and opened the starting spot for Dennis Schroder. Atlanta will start Howard and Schroder, along with PF Paul Millsap, SF Kent Bazemore and SG Kyle Korver.

Washington’s biggest change is on the bench, where the Wizards fired head coach Randy Wittman and hired Scott Brooks, who spent six seasons at Oklahoma City and took the Thunder to the NBA finals in 2011-12. The Wizards are led by PG John Wall (19.9-10.2 APG) and Bradley Beal, who averaged 17.4 points while dealing with hip and leg issues that limited him to 55 games. Expected to start along with Washington’s dynamic guard duo are Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat up front. An early concern is that Wall is recovering from knee surgery and plans to see a minutes limit early in the season. "We have a great bench and we have some great backups," Wall told the Washington Post. "We trust those guys to run the team and do different things than what I do. I feel like they can hold their own and keep our unit going." That bench now includes PG Trey Burke, who was acquired for a 2021 draft pick from the Utah Jazz (10.6-2.3 APG last season) and will back up Wall.

Atlanta has won five of the last seven meetings but the Wizards upset the Hawks 109-98 when they last visited Atlanta in March. The Wizards should be anxious to get back to the playoffs while proving themselves to new head coach Scott Brooks. Atlanta only had its starting lineup intact twice during the preseason and this marks Dennis Schroder’s first appearance as Atlanta’s new PG and Howard’s Hawks debut. I’m taking any points available.

David Banks

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Pick: Jacksonville +3.5

Just when it looked like Gus Bradley’s job might be safe, it’s not, though it really never was as the Jaguars started the season 0-3. After two consecutive wins, Jacksonville was blown out by Oakland last week and now must travel to LP Field in Nashville to take on AFC South Division rival Tennessee. The last time the Jags played in Tennessee, they lost a 42-39 shootout with the Titans. Don’t expect those kinds of offensive fireworks this time around.

Both teams are struggling offensively. Jacksonville has scored over 17 points just twice all season and the Jags are 24th in the NFL in scoring averaging just 19.5 points per game. Tennessee is not much better averaging 20.9 per game (tied for 20th in the NFL). One of the Jaguars’ biggest problems is the inability to run the football. The team averages only 76.7 rushing yards per game. Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are not enjoying the type of season that each had last year and some of that is due to the ineffectiveness of the run game.

If there is one thing that Tennessee can do, it is run the football. Behind DeMarco Murray’s 633 yards, the Titans average 143.4 yards per game on the ground, which is third-best in the NFL. Quarterback Marcus Mariota continues to improve, but the Titans lack a go-to threat at wide receiver. The team’s leading receiver is TE Delanie Walker who has 24 catches for 330 yards and three touchdowns.

In the last four meetings between the two teams prior to last year’s shootout in Nashville, neither the Titans nor the Jags have scored more than 21 points. Thursday’s game may follow that trend. The two teams have met 43 times and Tennessee holds a 24-19 advantage.

SPORTS WAGERS

Jacksonville +3½ over TENNESSEE

We are going to see where this number settles before we pull the trigger. We’re simply not spotting extra juice here to take back 3½ points. Perhaps we’ll take +3 closer to game time if the juice does not come back on 3½. Check back after dinner for an update.

The Jaguars are struggling on offense with no relief in sight. Hitting a spot in the schedule with four road games over the next five weeks is not going to help and then home stands against the Broncos and Vikings could be even worse. Any advances made by this Jags’ offense last year are gone. This is the same set of coaches and players and the same schemes. The defense is no better than 2015’s version and the rushing offense has been bad for years but the passing attack has just inexplicably fallen apart. These Jaguars cannot even manage trash time yards or scores and so they have very little appeal traveling on a short week. The Jags were supposed to compete this year but the only thing they have done is caused folks to rip up their tickets. This now becomes a buy-low opportunity.

As bad as the Jags are, the Titans spotting points might be worse. Marcus Mariota has gone just 1-8 ATS at home, and he's never covered the spread as a favorite. NEVER. Tennessee is 3-4 on the year but the three teams that have defeated (Detroit, Cleveland and Miami) are a combined 6-15. In fact, the Titans defeated Detroit by one-point and Cleveland by two points. They also lost to Houston while giving up 27 points to Brock Osweiler and that rancid attack. Last week, Tennessee lost at home to Indianapolis by eight points, which is not an easy thing to do. Short rest works both ways. In other words, the Titans are being asked to win by a margin with little time to prepare when they are a team that can’t win by a margin with plenty of time to prepare. To that, we say, “Give us the points”.

SPORTS WAGERS

USC -16½ over California

The Trojans are just 4-3 this season so asking them to spot some serious lumber against a Pac-12 rival may appear daunting but it’s not. You see, the Trojans have played one of then toughest schedules in the country and they are about to reap the rewards of doing so. After USC’s 31-27 loss to Utah to run its record to 1-3, rumblings were growing louder about Clay Helton's job security but three victories later over ASU, Colorado and Arizona and the rumblings have quieted down. USC’s three losses were against Alabama, Stanford and Utah. While USC may not win a Pac-12 championship this year, we do like the chemistry on this year's squad. Couple that with the development of quarterback Sam Darnold, and you've got a South division contender that could turn in a 10-3 season. When USC wins, they win big and three of their four victories have been by 38, 21 and 34 points respectively. We’ll likely be adding Cal to that list tomorrow morning.

Sonny Dykes wasn’t even supposed to be back this year. Rumors had him mentally checking out long before Christmas last season but here we are, seven games in and Dykes has the Golden Bears at 4-3, the same record as the Trojans. However, not all 4-3 teams are created equally and now Cal’s bubble is very likely to burst in a big way because they are not going to put up 50 points against the outstanding defense of the Trojans, which is the amount of points that Cal requires to compete. The Golden Bears have a 50-43 victory over Texas, a 51-31 win over Hawaii and a 52-49 win over Oregon last week. In its three losses, Cal has surrendered 45, 51 and 47 points respectively. At some point, and we’re suggesting it’s this week, Cal’s offense is not going to be in rhythm. They’ll make mistakes, they’ll turn the ball over, they’ll start pressing and the score against them will get run up. It happens every single year to this Sonny Dykes coached team, whereas the wheels start to come off. The Golden Bears dodged a serious bullet last week when they hung on to defeat Oregon in double OT after blowing a big lead. They wanted that game desperately and now they have to deal with the emotional letdown afterward. The big lumber here may look very appealing, especially with Cal’s backdoor cover ability but don’t be fooled into grabbing the points. Cal cannot stop USC in any way, shape or form and they are not going to be able to score at will like they did against some weak defenses. The Bears offense creates decent production, but Cal never wins the battle of mistakes against superior competition and Sonny Sykes rarely out-coaches anyone. It's now time to drop the hammer on the Bears. USC in route is the call.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +103 over FLORIDA

OT included. The Panthers come in with a 3-3 record but they are not defeating the top teams. With losses to Washington, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, the Panthers are just 1-3 against top-10 competition. It is early still and the Panthers are a tough out with a defense that is playing better than last year’s sound bunch but that doesn’t mean they deserve to be road chalk here.

We have no intentions whatsoever of bailing on the Maple Leafs. While the market mostly perceives the Leafs as an offensive squad with a rather weak defense, that is not the case at all. Toronto continues to lose games because of its shaky goaltending so if Fredrick Anderson can bounce back, Toronto is going to win plenty of games this year.Against Tampa Bay on Tuesday, a 7-3 loss, Toronto won 64% of the faceoffs, outshot the Bolts, 43-24 and lost 7-3. Give us the team that does that every night and we’ll point out the team with an extremely high win expectation. Toronto has outstanding metrics across the board except in goal. The Maple Leafs have created more high quality chances than any team in the NHL except the Rangers. They are also a top-5 defensive metric team. The Leafs are dominating so many areas but the results have not followed. Now the Maple Leafs come in with their stock much lower than it was after Auston Matthews scored four times. The market sees results and bets accordingly while we see a really strong team without the results yet.

Columbus +175 over SAN JOSE

OT included. The Sharks were a ridiculous -165 favorite to beat Anaheim on Tuesday night and they did exactly that by a a score of 2-1 in OT. The Sharkies returned home from a five-game trip against Anaheim and they were not flat. Very often, if a team isn’t flat in the first game back, they are in the second game back. Furthermore, this game is sandwiched between Anaheim and Nashville, who the Sharks will host on Saturday night. Strong situational plays have always been a part of our handicapping process and this is certainly a game in which we see a big edge for the visitor in that regard.

The Jackets have such little appeal. They’re in a market not many media outlets cover because the rest of the market is not that interested in them. They have no star power, few playoff appearances and a very unremarkable resumé over the years. However, they’re playing well and they’re dangerous. Columbus has played the fewest games in the NHL at five but they’re 2-2-1 with victories over Dallas and Chicago. Two of its three losses were by one goal, including a 3-2 loss to these Sharkies back on Oct. 15 in Columbus. The Jackets are getting outstanding efforts from their special teams, they’re working hard for a full 60 minutes under John Tortorella and they are also getting very good goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky. Columbus absolutely is a live pooch here and certainly worth a bet.

BRANDON LEE

Celtics -1

Boston failed to cover last night in a 122-117 win at home over the Nets as a massive 13-point favorite, but it's a very misleading final. The Celtics had a 23-point lead with less than 8-minutes to play before taking their foot off the gas and letting Brooklyn get back in the game. They won't make the same mistake tonight on the road against a Bulls team that is getting a lot of love coming into the season with the additions of Wade and Rondo. While I think Chicago could surprise, I also think it's going to take some time for them to form some chemistry on both sides of the ball. Boston also made a big move adding in Horford, but I think that's more of a seamless transition with the style they play, especially given Horford doesn't need the ball to have a big impact. Same can't be said for Wade and Rondo.