RAY MONOHAN
Clippers vs. Blazers
Play: Clippers -2
The Clippers head into Portland to open their season and the Clippers here have value laying the small number.
Portland got their season going with a win over the depleted Utah Jazz, but this situation is going to be much different for them.
Los Angeles is a much deeper and more physical team than Utah and will certainly expose some problems for Portland. With Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan down low, Portland doesn't have a true big man who can slow them down.
Expect the Clippers to expose that all game long and feed Griffin and Jordan inside.
Some trends to note. Clippers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Northwest.
Expect the Clippers to really control the paint here, as they should cover this small number on the road.
JIMMY BOYD
Pittsburgh+3½
Like the value here on the Panthers as a home dog. I just don’t think Pittsburgh is getting the respect they deserve in this one. The Panthers two losses this season both came on the road against quality teams. They lost 38-45 at Oklahoma State and 36-37 at North Carolina. Both of which they could have just as easily won.
At the same time, I think Virginia Tech is a bit overvalued right now. The Hokies just won and covered convincingly on ESPN last Thursday against Miami. The public is going to have no problem trusting them laying a small number here.
Especially, given that Virginia Tech is team in this matchup ranked in the Top 25.
What you can’t overlook is the advantage these teams have playing at home in these weekday games. Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 at home this season and that includes wins over Penn State and Georgia Tech. On flip side of this, both of Virginia Tech’s losses have come away from home. The most recent being a 17-31 defeat at Syracuse.
Another key factor in favor of Pitt is they are coming off a bye. It was a much-needed break for this team after playing each of the first 7 weeks.
The big concern with the Panthers is their defense, which comes in allowing 31.4 ppg on 395.5 ypg. However, they are very strong up front, as they own the 5th ranked run defense, allowing just 96.6 ypg. If they can take away the Hokies running game, they could disrupt their offense.
Keep in mind the Panthers head coach is former defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi. Getting two weeks to put together a gameplan for Virginia Tech is a big advantage.
I also don’t think people realize how good this Pittsburgh offense is. The Panthers come in averaging 38.4 ppg on 418 ypg. I know the Hokies have a good run defense, but this Pitt rushing attack is the real deal. The Panthers come in averaging 239.1 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry on the ground. The Hokies are ranked 11th against the run, giving up just 103.6 ypg, but did give up 239 rushing yards to Tennessee. By far the best rushing attack they have faced this season.
You also can’t overlook how well Pitt senior quarterback Nathan Peterman is playing. While he hasn’t thrown for a ton of yards, he’s been very efficient. Peterman is completing 63.3% of his attempts with 11 TDs to just 2 INTs.
The Panthers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games off a conference win by 10 or more and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 off a bye. Pittsburgh has also been great in this series, winning each of the last two meetings.
JACK JONES
USC -16
The USC Trojans have a huge scheduling advantage in this game. They have had nearly two full weeks to prepare for this game after having last week off. And they couldn’t be playing any better coming in.
Meanwhile, the Cal Golden Bears are working on a short week after playing last Friday against Oregon. I certainly have to question the Golden Bears’ stamina, especially since they needed double-overtime to beat Oregon 52-49. That was the ultimate shootout and will have taken a lot out of Cal.
USC started 1-3 against a brutal schedule and was way undervalued because of it. All three losses came on the road as underdogs against Alabama, Stanford and Utah, and they really should have beaten Utah. But then the schedule lightened up a bit, and the Trojans’ true colors have shown over their past three games.
Following the Utah loss, USC came back and beat Arizona State 41-20. This was a 41-6 game until the Sun Devils scored 14 points in garbage time in the fourth quarter. The Trojans outgained the Sun Devils 523 to 303 for the game, or by 220 total yards.
USC then beat a very good Colorado team 21-17 at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Trojans outgained the Buffaloes 539 to 371 for the game, or by 168 total yards.
Then last time out USC went to Arizona and won 48-14 as 14-point favorites. The Trojans racked up 574 total yards and limited the Wildcats to 343 yards, outgaining them by 231 yards for the game.
I believe Cal is similar to USC’s last three opponents talent-wise. That’s important because the Trojans are outscoring their last three foes by 19.7 points per game and outgaining them by 206.3 yards per game.
There’s no question that the Trojans have been improved defensively of late, but the biggest reason for their turnaround is the play of freshman QB Sam Darnold. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,334 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions this season in basically only four games.
Both teams obviously have elite offenses, but the difference in this game is going to be defense. Cal gives up 41.3 points and 488 yards per game against teams that average 32.5 points and 424 yards per game. USC only gives up 24.0 points and 371 yards per game against opponents that average 30.5 points and 419 yards per game.
And keep in mind that USC has played a much tougher schedule than Cal to this point. The Golden Bears are 0-3 in true road games this season with losses to San Diego State, Arizona State and Oregon State, which is the worst team in the Pac-12. USC is 3-0 at home this season and winning by 21.0 points per game.
USC is 12-0 straight up in its last 12 meetings with Cal. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Trojans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Golden Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.
Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (USC) – after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS since 1992.
DAVE PRICE
Ohio +17
The road team is a perfect 8-0 ATS in all Ohio games this season. The Bobcats have struggled at home, but they have played their best football on the road. They are 3-1 on the road with their only loss coming by a final of 19-28 as 27.5-point underdogs at Tennessee. They beat Kansas 37-21 as 2.5-point dogs, Miami Ohio 17-7 as 2-point favorites, and Kent State 14-10 as 1-point favorites. Toledo is getting too much love from oddsmakers here tonight. This is a team that barely beat Bowling Green 42-35 at home two weeks ago as 31.5-point favorites. The last three meetings in this series were all decided by 9 points or less. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Bill Marzano
Ohio / Toledo Under 59.5
The Ohio Bobcats have been dominated in this matchup but make no mistake about it, this team will be ready to play tonight...since I like Ohio in this game, I am leaning on them defensively where the Under has cashed in seven of eight games this year...the Under is 8-0 in Toledo's last 8 games vs a team with a winning record...the Under is 7-0 the last seven games for Ohio...when these two teams meet, we usually see a low scoring game.
Harry Bondi
PITTSBURGH +3.5 over Virginia Tech
Yes, the Hokies looked very good last Thursday night when they dismantled Miami-Florida, 37-16, as a six-point favorite, but we don’t think this unit is ready to go on the road after such a big win and lay points, especially when you consider Virginia Tech is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 as a road chalk and has covered only two of its last 11 games the week after a win of 14 points or more. Pittsburgh has covered 10 of the last 15 meetings in this series and have the kind of powerful running game we like a home dog to have.
Dave Essler
Georgia Southern +5
There are plenty of "5's"out there but I'll use -120 for arguments sake. This is a rivalry that's much longer than the Sun Belt Conference games. It's actually bitter - at home I'd almost always take GSU with points. If you've ever been to Statesboro you know how tough a place it is to get to/play, and how seriously they take football. I'm not enamored with GSU's new offense - but I do like Ellison and his decision making - so we'll go with it for one game.
Bob Valentino
My free winner for Thursday night is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers, who have covered seven of their last eight road games, and will get the win and cover against Georgia Southern.
While Ga. Southern has the better scoring offense this season, the Mountaineers have the overall better defense. Granted, I know Georgia Southern has allowed just 10.5 points per game at home, the Mountaineers have allowed a mere 19.3 points per road contest.
And even better, Appy State has allowed a meager 7.3 points in its last three contests.
The home team has won three in a row in this series, but I'm not scared of that stat, as App State comes in riding a four-game win streak since losing to Miami, 45-10.
Georgia Southern is in after snapping a three-game losing streak, and will be playing its first home game since Sept. 17.
Take the road team here, as the Mountaineers win big.
2* APPALACHIAN STATE
Brett Atkins
Points getting a little "rich" to side with the Trojans these days, as USC is laying a boat load tonight at home against a California team that they have bested 12 times in a row!
Cal's last straight up series win comes back in 2003 in Berkeley, and the Golden Bears are just 2-9 against the spread the last 11 showdowns with Troy.
USC has won their last 3 in Pac 12 play after opening the season at 1-3 straight up, still this seems to be a few points too many tonight as Cal has lost 3 games this season, but only one of those losses coming by double-digits.
The Golden Bears erased a long losing streak last Friday night in their double-overtime home win over Oregon, and while the 12 game straight up streak may not be halted tonight, I think Cal stays close enough to get the against the spread cover.
Cal's offense has put up 40 points or better in 6 of 7 games already, so adding over 2 more TD's to their account is A-OK by me.
Live dog in the Land of Troy on Thursday.
2* CAL
Brad Wilton
Toledo's only loss in 7 games this season comes at BYU, and the Rockets have done an admirable job against the spread as well, going 5-2 against the spread thus far.
Jason Candle's team is also 10-0 straight up in this series dating back to 1991, but I feel they are laying a few points too many tonight at the Glass Bowl.
Ohio U's defense is staunch, and they are allowing the fewest points in the conference. The Bobcats have also won 4 of their last 5 games straight up, and interestingly enough the road team in their 8 games played has covered in ALL 8.
Ohio University has won and covered both this season as the road dog, and are 5-1 in the road dog role now dating back to last season.
Toledo was a tad lucky last week to cover against Central Michigan, as the Chippewas fumbled on the goal line with right around a minute to go in the game. Look for the wood to be too tall to chop down this Thursday night at home against the defensive-minded Bobcats.
Take the points.
4* OHIO
Eric Schroeder
Two nights back I delivered the Portland Trail Blazers as my free winner, over the Utah Jazz. Easy winner. Tonight I'm coming right back with the Blazers in their second game of the season, as I'm appalled at the line in this one. The Clippers should not be laying points in their season-opener, to a talented Trail Blazers team that should win this game outright.
These two faced off in the first round of last season’s Western Conference quarterfinals. The Clippers were heavy favorites to win the series and went on to take the first two games. Injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin led to the Blazers winning the next four.
Though the Clippers would love to exact revenge in their only regular-season visit to Portland this year, especially on TNT, I think the Blazers this season.
We saw them defeat the Jazz two nights back, 113-104, as the Blazers registered an NBA-record 16th straight home-opening victory. If this game was in L.A., I'd be skeptical. But the fact it is being played in Portland has me all over the home underdog.
Damian Lillard, one of the most exciting players in the NBA, had 39 points against the Jazz, and with a chance to shine on national TV, I think he is going to explode on the Clippers. I know the Clippers won three of four regular-season meetings last year and Portland is 6-13 against Los Angeles since the start of the 2011-12 season. But I'm not budging on this. The popular choice is L.A. Well I like going against the grain.
Take the home pup.
2* BLAZERS
TEDDY DAVIS
Ohio vs. Toledo
Play: Ohio +17
There is no doubt Toledo is the better team, but Ohio still has a lot to play for as they have a chance to win the Eastern part of he division. While they would likely need this game in a big way to do so, I see them putting forth their best effort here. Toledo's win last week was a little misleading taking advantage of two costly turnovers by Central Michigan which has caused this line to be inflated. Toledo also has a huge on deck game with rival Akron as I believe they will be looking ahead to that match up. I trust Frank Solich to have a solid game plan here tonight for Ohio and give them a lot closer game than what most people think
BILL BILES
Jaguars vs. Titans
Play: Jaguars +3
Both these teams need a win on Thursday night football, but I think this is the game that Bortles turns his season around. Him Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are in for a big game. Look for the Jags to stack the box and key in on Murray and make Mariota beat them passing.
Dr Bob
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech (-3½) 27 PITTSBURGH 24
Pitt has been a bit of a disappointment so far this season, but the Panthers are still a better than average team and they should be able to compete on their home floor with a good Virginia Tech squad. My math model actually favors the Hokies by 4 ½ points but Pitt applies to a 59-15 ATS situation that plays on underachieving teams (i.e. under 50% ATS) as home dogs after a bye and it’s an advantage to have had a bye week before a Thursday night game when your opponent played the previous week. Virginia Tech is coming off a satisfying win over Miami, so this is not a great spot for them. Still, the math does show a bit of value on the Hokies. I’ll lean slightly with Pitt based on the situation and my math model likes the Under (57 points).
Bruce Marshall
Virginia Tech -3.5
New VPI HC Fuente gets an "A-" grade from most ACC insiders, partly because juco QB Evans has proven such a nice fit in Fuente's uptempo spread. Pitt has been speeding up its offense, too, but at expense of defense (31.4 ppg), which has leaked far more than defensive reputation of HC Narduzzi would suggest .