Joey Juice
A duece from the ACC will do battle as the Louisville Cardinals travel to Raleigh, NC to face the NC State Wolfpack. Last week Louisville spanked Murray State 55-10. Last year Louisville spanked NC State 54-13.
A look inside the numbers shows Louisville with a clear advantage versus the Las Vegas spread, especially when they are on the road and playing a winning home team. The Cardinals are an impressive 21-7 ATS last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. This Cardinals team is also superior on the grass, 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
On the flip side, NC state does not play well at home versus teams with winning road records. NC State is 2-5 ATS last 7 at home vs. a team with a winning road record. In addition and unlike Louisville, NC state does not play well on the grass. They are 1-4 ATS last 5 games on grass.
I think that Louisville is a touchdown (or more) better than this NC State team making the small spread a tremendous value. The free pick is Louisville.
3* LOUISVILLE
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Over in tonight's NFL game.
It's hard to envision a scenario where this Patriots-Buccaneers games holds Under the total, as the New England defense has not shown that they are capable to stopping teams through the first 4 games they have played this season.
The Patriots have allowed an average of 32-points per game this season, but they have also been able to score at a just over 32-points per game clip as ALL 4 of the Pats games this season have sailed Over the posted price.
The Bucs have not been as prolific in their scoring, but they have played Overs in their last pair of games, and they have averaged 28-points per game in their first pair of home games this season. While it is not likely that Jameis Winston is going to outgun Tom Brady at this point in his career, I do think it is likely that Winston can get his licks in against this permissive New England stop-unit.
Big, big total, but I do expect some fireworks tonight, and I do expect this one to land Over the total.
Pats-Bucs to open Week 5 with an Over.
3* NEW ENGLAND-TAMPA BAY OVER
Jack Brayman
My free play is going to be short and sweet, as I won't go too long on this. I like the New England Patriots to win and cover against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I don't see how the Patriots fall to 2-3 on the year, and think off a short week, we're going to see New England respond against an upstart Tampa Bay team that will fall short in its quest to knock off the defending champs.
I know the Patriots have the worst defense in the league, but at some point the mad scientist in Bill Belichick has to come out, and I think this is the spot.
Last time the Pats were on Thursday night, they lost the season-opener to the still-undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. Knowing the pride of this team, it will be looking to avenge that loss, and last week's, hoping to stay on track and above .500. Lay the road chalk.
1* PATRIOTS
Dave Essler
Louisville at NC State
Play: NC State
I leaned this was right off the bat - anything over +3 is probably fine. If NC State plays half as well as they did against FSU they'll win this game. That game against Syracuse was a classic sandwich/letdown spot between FSU and this game. They were trounced 54-13 last season at L'ville, so that is motivation enough for me to take a home dog in a stand-alone game. Yes, L'ville might score, but I don't trust their defense one bit.
Harry Bondi
LOUISVILLE -3 over North Carolina
Love the line value here and the numbers are all with us with a Louisville squad that was a 20 point favorite in last years game and is only laying 3 at NC State tonight. Wolfpack have been big moneyburners at home and as a dog going 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and 2-7 their last 9 as a home dog. In addition, Cardinals annually hammer State winning and covering 6 of their last 7 meetings including last year when they raced out to a 44-0 lead and won 54-17. The hype on reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson has been almost nonexistent with Barley at Penn State and others getting all the press but he gets back in the Heisman race with a breakout game tonight.Cards!
Bob Balfe
Indians -140
Teams play all season to get these home games and really need to take advantage. The Indians have been great at home this year and great against right handed pitching. This Tribe Bullpen has been almost flawless at home. This is going to be a hell of a series. Bauer has been a little bit better than Gray this last month and should cash the ticket tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Louisville at NC State
Play: NC State
Edges - Wolfpack: 5-1 ATS in the 2d of consecutive home games; and 5-1 ATS home weekday games… Cardinals: Petrino 1-6-1 ATS as a road favorite off a win of 32 or more pots before Game Ten of the season… With NCSU head coach Dave Doeren 23-4 SU and 18-8 ATS in a game following consecutive wins, including 7-0 ATS as a dog (4-0 SUATS as a single-digit dog),
OC Dooley
Red Wings +120
For those following Detroit not only did their amazing 25 year "postseason" streak finally come to an end, they were just .500 at home in what was their final campaign inside venerable Joe Louis Arena. It is interesting to note that the Red Wings in the offseason did NOT change personnel claiming that last campaign's struggles was a mere abberation. Visiting Minnesota is WITHOUT star forward Zach Parise due to injury and the ROAD team in this series (2-5 last seven chances) has struggled. Detroit returns downtown tonight opening a brand NEW home facility giving them special energy for the opener
The Real Animal
Yankees / Indians Over 8.5
Because MLB is turning a blind eye to steroids in 2017 I will continue to play 'OVER' in virtually every MLB playoff game. Already 2-0 entering Thursday with a great start in Houston for today's day game. Only two players all season were suspended for drug use after nine infractions in 2016. It's no longer the focal point of the media because they know fans are sick and tired of hearing about steroids. Consequently this year we saw the all-time record for home runs hit in a single season. Minnesota made the playoffs this season as a wild-card qualifier by scoring the most runs in baseball since August 3rd. Have you seen the Twins' lineup and payroll? Gimme a break. It's not exactly Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva, and Rod Carew these days. In the past two nights and in the most meaningful game of the season for the Yankees, Twins, Rockies, and Diamondbacks there were 31 runs scored. That's incredible in the "one and done" format when a manager won't hesitate is bringing in his best relief pitchers early in a contest. So much for the theory of "pitching wins in the playoffs." We saw individual home run records hit this year that have not been duplicated since Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire. This is not to suggest Bauer and Gray are not quality pitchers. They are. But they are overmatched now that MLB is secretly allowing steroids back in the game in kind of a "hush-hush" approach. I mean how else do you explain these titanic-type shots every night on Sports Center and records being destroyed that haven't been duplicated since "murderer's row" of the 1927 Yankees. It all changed when you allowed Jeff Bagwell into Hall of Fame. The position of steroids is softening and eventually EVERYBODY will get into Cooperstown. The 'OVER' is 6-3 the last nine meetings in Ohio between the Yanks and Tribe and both teams average five runs or more per game. Sonny Gray's last three starts have resulted in a 7.36 ERA. THANK YOU BASEBALL FOR TURNING A BLIND EYE TO STEROIDS AGAIN. It should produce fireworks as you want!