Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, October 6th, 2016

Bob Harvey

Temple vs. Memphis
Play: Over 60½

Following its first loss of the season, the Memphis Tigers look to get back on track when they host the Temple Owls in an American Athletic Conference game. Kick-off is set for 8 PM at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium where the Tigers are favored by -10. The total is 60.

Memphis (3-1, 2-2 ATS) was dominant in its first three games outscoring its opponents 155-27 during a 3-0 start. However last week they were manhandled by Ole Miss losing by 20-points. The Tigers' defense allowed 624 yards while the offense committed four turnovers.

TEMPLE (3-2, 4-1 ATS): Sophomore tailback Ryquell Armstead ran for two touchdowns for the second straight game and finished with 159 rushing yards against SMU. The Owls have won two straight scoring a combined 93 points and there 45.8 points is sixth-best in the nation.

Vernon Croy

Western Kentucky (-3) over Louisiana Tech

This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have Western Kentucky winning big on the road Thursday night. The Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game. The Hilltoppers are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game, and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing 19 points or less in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games after a win by more than 20 points and they have allowed an average of 29.8 ppg this season. Play Western Kentucky ATS with confidence.

DAVE COKIN

CARDINALS AT 49ERS
PLAY: UNDER 42

It’s official. Carson Palmer, as expected, will be sitting the proceedings out this evening as the Arizona Cardinals visit the San Francisco 49ers.

Palmer has not been especially good to date this season, which is a continuation of what took place in the 2015 NFL post-season. Nevertheless, it’s still a substantial downgrade on paper to Drew Stanton.

There’s just no way to spin Stanton’s 2016 numbers in a positive fashion, other than to say that it’s a very small sample. But between his limited regular season and pre-season appearances on the field, the numbers are downright ghastly. 16/43 with four picks is just plain ugly. Obviously there’s always the possibility that tonight could end up being one of those lightning in a bottle games where he gets hot. But based on how Stanton has looked, it’s pretty tough to envision him leading the Cardinals up and down the field on a regular basis.

On the flip side, the 49ers continue to go with Blaine Gabbert as their starting signal caller, but that really has to be by default, doesn’t it? Gabbert is a backup QB, and that’s it. Translated, it’s possible that he can have a really good game, but the likelihood is that he won’t. He’s simply not a particularly accurate passer and he doesn’t always throw the ball to the right team. Fact is, it speaks volumes to how far Colin Kaepernick has regressed if he can’t get on the field under center for the 49ers.

I can’t see Arizona HC Bruce Arians showing up with anything other than a conservative game plan tonight. The idea has to be to let Stanton try to manage the game without asking him to try and do too much. The Cardinals figure to be able to win this on the strength of their defense. That unit has clearly been the strength on this team through the first four weeks, even with the really bad game at Buffalo included, and the San Francisco offense is one of the least efficient in the NFL.

As for the 49ers, it’s not like their defense is anything to write home about but it’s at least better than their offense. I have no idea how head coach Chip Kelly will approach this game, but it at least seems logical that he would try to make this a field position duel and hope he can get enough stops to give his team its best chance at picking up a divisional win at home.

I’m expecting a conservative, close to the vest type of game. The hope is that the two QB’s don’t get overly charitable in terms of turnovers that result in short fields or defensive scores. If it plays out that way, points figure to be somewhat difficult to come by, so I’ll opt for the Under tonight between the Cardinals and 49ers

Rob Vinciletti

Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9

This game has 2 tough leftys in J. Happ for The Jays and Hamels for Texas. Happ has allowed just 4 runs in 20 innings vs the Rangers and Hamels has won 7 of his last 8 starts. The Jays have a plethora of under indicators in application tonight. Toronto is under in the following situations. Under 29 of 39 vs leftys, 15 of 21 off 3+ wins, 13 of 17 with a day off, 9 of 13 on Thursdays, 9 of 11 away vs A.L West teams and 3 of 3 in October. They have the #1 road Era. Texas has the #3 home Era. Look for this one to go under.

Ray Monohan

Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9

The Blue Jays and Rangers renew their rivalry on Friday and Game 1 has value within the Over. LH Cole Hamels goes for the Rangers and he almost limps into postseason play. Hamels allowed 5 runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts.

Last year against the Jays in the postseason he appeared twice and allowed 9 runs in just 13.1 innings of work. For Toronto, Marco Estrada will get the ball. Here, he loses value because of the home ballpark for Texas. The Rangers offense is one of the best in baseball and they average over 5 runs per game at home. Look for them to get on Estrada early here in this one.

Some trends to note. Over is 20-7-2 in Hamels' last 29 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Over is 5-2 in Estradas last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Look for both offenses to get to the starters here, turning this into a long game that will feature a lot of run scoring chances. Back the Over.

Sean Murphy

Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Under 8½

Bettors have underestimated Red Sox starter Rick Porcello all season long and while I'm not eager to back he and the Red Sox as a sizable favorite in Game 1 of their ALDS against Cleveland, I do believe the 'under' is worth a shot.

All Porcello has done this season is go 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He hasn't missed a beat on the road, where his WHIP actually drops to 0.99. Also note that his two regular season starts against the Indians as a member of the Red Sox have totaled only four and seven runs.

While I have a lot of respect for the Boston bats, I don't believe we'll see the Red Sox come roaring out of the gates in Cleveland.

Trevor Bauer will take the ball for the Indians and while he did finish the regular season in rocky fashion, I expect him to rise to the occasion against one of the best offenses in baseball. Bauer has been ripped in two previous starts against the Red Sox, but has never faced them at home. There's obviously a big difference between pitching at Fenway Park and pitching at Progressive Field.

This total is a shade high as far as I'm concerned. It's playoff baseball and as good as these two offenses can be, I'm not anticipating a slugfest in the series-opener on Thursday.

Matt Mohr

Arizona at San Francisco
Play: Arizona -3

Injuries on both teams will play into this one with the Cards captain of the offense Carson Palmer going down last week with a concussion while the 49ners lost their hear and soul of their defense with NaVorro Bowman to an Achilles injury. The advantage on the injury front goes to AZ with Drew Stanton being in the system the past few years and getting valuable reps in the game last week but more importantly getting quality reps in practice this week. The 49ers defense will struggle to find a serviceable replacement for Bowman which will add the an already struggling defense. SF is giving up 390 on the defensive side of the ball and have struggled to stop the run giving up just under 200 to the Cowboys last week. I expect the Cards to follow the blueprint the Cowboys laid out and pound the ball which will help Stanton go over the top with some deep balls. The Cards are better than their 1-3 record and will build upon the already solid offensive stat of outgaining their opponent by 68 yards per game. Even without Palmer the Cards offense finds its groove against the porous niners D. Take the Cardinals to cover and cash in a winner.

Matt Josephs

Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Over 8½

It's game one in Cleveland as the Indians take on the Red Sox. Trevor Bauer is 10-8 with a 4.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.301 in 28 starts this season for the Tribe. He has allowed 13 runs and 23 hits in his last three starts with 10 of those runs coming at home against Chicago and Detroit. Bauer has a tough history against Boston with a 12.14 ERA and a WHIP of 2.549 in two outings against them. Earlier this year he lost 9-1 in Boston giving up four runs and eight hits in five innings. Boston is hitting .282 this season scoring 5.4 runs per contest. We think they are going to win this game so you are getting an extra set of at-bats. Rick Porcello is 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts with 18 of them going over the total. He's shown some cracks in his last two starts allowing three runs and eight hits in each contest. Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA in 22 career starts against Cleveland. The Indians hit .287 at home scoring 5.6 runs per game there. They went over in 47 of their 81 contests in Cleveland. Boston's bullpen is good, but they also have 27 losses and 18 blown saves. These two had two overs in their three meetings in Cleveland this season.

Jim Feist

Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: Over 67½

A pair of high octane offenses meet here with Western Kentucky averaging 33.4 points, while LA Tech is #14 in the nation in total yards while averaging 36 ppg. Western Kentucky is 15-5-1 over the total following a straight up win. Nicholas Norris scored three touchdowns, Western Kentucky scored on its first eight possessions and the Hilltoppers went on to rout Houston Baptist 50-3 in a nonconference game. Their offensive numbers would be even higher is they hadn't faced No. 1 Alabama, a 38-10 loss. Louisiana Tech is 4-1 over the total at home and 20-8 over against a team with a winning record. And the Over is 15-7-1 in Bulldogs last 23 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Brandon Shively

Temple vs. Memphis
Play: Under 61½

I like this game to stay under the total. Any time you can get a Temple total set this high, the under is definitely worth a second look. Upon looking closer, I like what I see. Temple has held Memphis to 12, 16, and 21 points the L3 meetings. Last year, this was a 14-12 (26 points) game going into the 4th quarter before finishing with 43 total points. This year, Memphis has a new QB which is a downgrade from Paxton Lynch who was a 1st rd draft pick in the NFL. Don’t let the 77 points they scored against Bowling Green fool you. Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in college football this season. They put up 43 against Kansas, but the Kansas defense is bad and the yardage was actually close (+80 net yards). Just five days after battling with a more physical SEC team in Ole Miss, I don’t think the Tigers offense will be as crisp as one might expect.

Temple is a defensive minded team that prefers to play at a slow pace. This total tonight marks the highest total under head coach Rhule when Temple has been a road underdog (14 games). 62 points is the most points that have ever been scored in these 14 games. Temple doesn’t have much talent at receiver and QB Walker has only a 55% completion percentage this year with 6 INT already to only 7 TD.

On defense, Temple is holding teams to a 29% conversion rate on 3rd downs. They have allowed a score only 66% of the time in the red zone. On offense, the Owls only converted 23% of 3rd downs at Penn State and are only converting 36% on the season. That’s against some bad defensive teams like Charlotte and SMU.

For Memphis, they are holding teams to a 24% conversion rate on 3rd downs (Held Ole Miss to 3-for-11 last week). On offense, the Tigers are converting 38% of the time on 3rd downs which is not anything special and makes the play on the under more attractive. Also, the Tigers defense has only allowed 5 TD’s in 11 red zone drives. I think we see Temple make some long drives that kill the clock and settle for a few field goals and we should see the same thing with the Memphis offense. Look for a final score in the 30-20 range.

Dave Cokin

Louisiana Tech +2.5

Skip Holtz is in his best role tonight. The Louisiana Tech head coach has always been really good as a conference underdog. I think there's something to this, as he seems to be quite adept at getting his teams to play their best football in the most challenging league games. Tonight's clash with Western Kentucky certainly qualifies on that count. This game is shaping up as a sharp/square battleground as far as the betting goes. The sharp money is showing on the Bulldogs, while the public is lining up on the Hilltoppers. I believe that split will grow larger with the number having moved off the -3, as laying less than a field goal with the perceived better team always seems to attract the masses. Statistically, I think you can build a case that Louisiana Tech might actually be the better team. They've got better per game yardage numbers than Western Kentucky on both offense and defense. One of the areas where the Hilltoppers have really excelled is on special teams, but the Bulldogs are very respectable in that category, so the normal Western Kentucky advantage might not show up to its usual extent tonight. These two teams played a real beauty last season at Western Kentucky, with the Hilltoppers getting the 41-38 win. Tech had all kinds of early problems in that game but played much better after halftime. As for tonight in terms of the matchup, I'll freely admit I'm worried about that very prolific Hilltoppers passing game against a shaky Bulldogs secondary. But the home team does get one of its CB's back from injury tonight and at the very least, Holtz and his staff aren't going to be surprised by what they see from the road team. I can see why the sharper dollars are on the home dog. Tech could easily be 4-1, as they got unlucky at Arkansas in a game they should have won and blow a pretty big lead at Middle Tennessee. There was no doubt about their loss at Texas Tech, but they were also very competitive in that game. Western Kentucky could be a tad overrated. They hammered a very bad Rice team as well as an FCS opponent, and I just threw out the loss to Alabama as that was way out of their class. But the Hilltoppers could not beat a so-so Vanderbilt team at home, and WKY was actually pretty fortunate to escape on the road against mediocre Miami Ohio. I think the intangibles favor the home team, and while this sure doesn't figure to be easy, I am going to take my shot with Louisiana Tech as a small home dog tonight.

Brandon Lee

Blue Jays +125

Toronto is worth a look here as a dog Thursday in the series opener against Texas. The Blue Jays are riding a wave of momentum after their thrilling 5-2 win in extra innings against the Orioles on Tuesday. I also give them the edge on the mound in Game 1, as they hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who posted a 0.95 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Estrada has also pitched very well against the Rangers, posting a 2.37 ERA in 5 career starts against them. Texas counters with Cole Hamels, who wasn't sharp at home (4.40 ERA in 15 starts) and closed out the season with a 4.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Hamels has also not had much luck against the Blue Jays, as he owns an ugly 5.29 ERA in 6 career starts against them (1-5 team record).

Jimmy Boyd

WKU/La Tech Over 68

Even with a total creeping up towards 70 points, I like the value on the OVER. These two teams combined for 79 points and 1,165 yards in their matchup last year. I’m expecting a similar type of output with both teams playing on short rest.

Keep in mind both of these defenses lost a lot from last year. WKU only had 4 starters return on the defensive side of the ball and Louisiana Tech returned just 3 starters. The Hilltoppers are down to just 2 after losing starting safety Marcus Ward for the season last week and starting linebacker T.J. McCollum not expected to play. They are also minus DE Nick Dawson-Brents who was expected to playa big role this season.

Western Kentucky comes in ranked 43rd in the country in total defense, allowing just 360 ypg. However, that's a bit misleading. The Hilltoppers are giving up 258.6 ypg through the air (93rd). That’s with them allowing just 183 passing yards to Rice and 138 last week to Houston Baptist. Louisiana Tech enters with the 13th ranked passing attack, averaging 347.2 ypg.

On the flip side of this, WKU’s offense should have no problem moving the ball against the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech ranks 62nd against the run (155.4 ypg) and 111th against the pass (289.4 ypg). While they held UTEP to just 7 points last week, the Miners had 415 yards of total offense. They had several drives inside Bulldogs territory, but just couldn’t finish them off.

The Hilltoppers won’t have those same problems. WKU is 42nd in the country in total offense at 465 ypg and have the 16th ranked passing attack (322 ypg). Keep in mind, that’s with them only putting up 239 total yards against Alabama earlier this season.

OVER is 20-7 in Western Kentucky’s last 27 with a total of 63 or more. That includes a 10-2 mark when the game is on the road in this scenario. OVER is also 13-4 in La Tech’s last 17 home games after a game where they didn’t commit a turnover and 13-4 in their last 17 in the 1st half of the season.

Jack Jones

Temple +10

The Temple Owls are once again flying under the radar this season as they have gone 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread. The oddsmakers continue underestimating this team on a weekly basis as head coach Matt Rhule’s squad is once again a contender in the AAC.

In their only road game this season, the Owls showed that they could play with the big boys in a 27-34 loss at Penn State as 8.5-point underdogs. I look for them to keep this game against Memphis close throughout as I believe getting 10 points here is too much.

Memphis is overvalued after its 3-0 start against cupcakes in SE Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green. But the Tigers finally took a step up in competition last week and lost 28-48 at Ole Miss as 16-point underdogs.

I think that makes this a very tough spot for the Tigers. They are on a short week and just played an SEC opponent, and it will be hard for them to recover in time and get mentally prepared to face Temple.

Meanwhile, this short week won’t hurt Temple at all. The Owls coasted to a 45-20 win over SMU last week as 12-point favorites. They held the Mustangs to just 288 total yards and forced four turnovers.

The Owls once again have an elite defense this season that is giving up just 20.4 points, 319 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. The offense has veteran playmakers in QB Phillip Walker and RB Jahad Thomas that is averaging 34.2 points per game on the season.

Last year, Temple dominated Memphis 31-12 as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Owls put up 461 yards of offense and held the high-powered Tigers to just 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards in the win. Paxton Lynch only managed 156 passing yards without a touchdown for the Tigers.

Plays against a home team (MEMPHIS) – after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last two games by 14+ points at the half are 55-24 (69.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Memphis is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. The Tigers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.