SPORTS WAGERS
Series Bet - CLEVELAND +150 over Boston
This should be a pretty fun series. The Red Sox are up against their old manager, their old “high-leverage specialist” and their old first basemen. The Indians are up against the best offense in baseball and one of the best postseason performers of all time but there’s only one real storyline that matters here: which 2016 employer of Michael Martinez will win?Generally there is only one lineup to consider but the Red Sox and (especially) Indians run out different enough squads that one has to consider both teams vs. RHP and LHP.
Thanks to all the info out there, we know that the Red Sox have the best offense in baseball. Boston finished first in runs, first in total bases, first in doubles and first in average, OBP and slugging in 2016. The Indians are no slouches when it comes to swinging the bats either, though. Cleveland finished fifth in runs scored, third in doubles, sixth in average, eighth in OBP and ninth in slugging. Cleveland does have an edge when it comes to stealing bases (134 to 83), but the Sox have plenty of players who can go first-to-third with ease.
Expect lots of platoons in this series. The Red Sox generally start Brock Holt (3B) and Andrew Benintendi (LF) against righties, while Aaron Hill and Chris Young get that honor against southpaws. For the Indians, expect Lonnie Chisenhall (RF) and Tyler Naquin (CF) to suit up against righties and Brandon Guyer and Coco Crisp (sometimes) to appear against left-handed pitchers.
Cleveland has a well-balanced lineup full of guys who can take you deep, guys who can run and guys who aren’t afraid to work the count. But there is no more dangerous offensive squad in the playoffs than Boston, which, on a good night, can run out seven hitters the Indians should legitimately fear.
Benches (AVG/OBP/SLG)
Let’s assume the bench players here are the ones who don’t appear in the vs. RHP lineups, both because RHP are more prevalent and because lefties are inherently evil.
Red Sox
C-R Christian Vazquez: .227/.227/.308
1B/3B-L Travis Shaw: .242/.306/.421/
3B/2B-R Aaron Hill: .218/.287/.290/(with BOS)
INF-L Marco Hernandez: .294/.357/.373/
OF-R Chris Young: .276/.352/.498/
Indians
C-R Roberto Perez: .183/.285/.294/
C/1B-R Chris Gimenez: .216/.272/.331/
UT-S Michael Martinez: .242/.265/.316/
OF-S Coco Crisp: .208/.323/.377/
OF-R Brandon Guyer: .333/.438/.469/
All we can say is...meh. Young and Shaw can come off the bench to sock dingers against opposite-side pitching, and both provide a modicum of defensive value as well. Vazquez is on this roster for one reason; to help shut down the Indians’ impressive base-running game, which we mentioned above. At this point the Exxon Valdez has more left in the tank than Aaron Hill, but he has somehow come up with several big hits for Boston, even if his overall performance has been dismal. Hernandez can serve as a pinch runner and as something more than a total loss at the plate. Disclaimer: I’m writing this before the Red Sox announce their roster, and it’s possible Hernandez won’t be on it, which probably won’t matter. m
For the Indians, Guyer and Crisp are good fourth and fifth outfielders. They can mash taters/serve as a solid platoon option (Guyer) and go get it in the outfield/steal you a base (Crisp). But the rest of this bench is pretty lackluster. Martinez’s best skill is that he can do a lot of things only kind of poorly. Perez and Gimenez are both perfectly acceptable backup catchers, but it’s not entirely clear why the Indians feel compelled to roster both. Let’s just say it would be a surprise if this series was decided by anyone on either of these benches.
Starting Pitchers (IP, ERA, DRA)
Red Sox
RHP - Rick Porcello: 223, 3.15, 3.46
LHP - David Price: 230, 3.99, 2.90
RHP - Clay Buchholz: 139.3, 4.78, 6.08
LHP - Eduardo Rodriguez: 107, 4.71, 5.10
Indians
RHP - Trevor Bauer: 190, 4.26, 4.11
RHP - Corey Kluber: 215, 3.14, 2.96
RHP - Josh Tomlin: 174, 4.40, 4.16
This series will feature three of the top-15 starters by xERA (min 100 IP) in the AL in Porcello, Price and Kluber. It will also feature some less-than-inspiring names so let’s tackle the more talented trio first.
In Porcello and Price, the Red Sox have a legitimate 1-2 punch to throw at Cleveland. Porcello is in the midst of a breakout season, posting 4.9 WARP on the back of his solid xERA, a career-best IP mark and a career-low BB/9. He’s not the groundball machine he used to be, but he’s taken steps forward this year when it comes to command and sequencing. He lacks an elite ceiling, but he’s about as steady as it gets. Price had a very rough start to the season, but from July on he’s been one of the better starters in the AL, posting a 3.33 ERA with a 108/25 K/BB ratio in 120 IP. However, October is a different animal and we know all about Price’s postseason struggles. We’ll find out if it’s just a narrative but we’re not ignoring it. He’s not the first pitcher to thrive in the regular season and subsequently struggle in the post-season and he won’t be the last.
While Price has the slight edge in xERA, most would agree that Kluber is the best starter who’ll toe the rubber in this series. He’s coming off a 5.9-WARP season, his second-best ever, and while he recently missed a week or so with a quad injury, all reports indicate that he’s ready to go. He could be exactly what the doctor ordered against a Red Sox lineup that relies predominantly on right-handed impact bats.
You might prefer Bauer and Tomlin to Buchholz and Rodriguez on first glance, but in reality these pairs of arms are trending in opposite directions. Bauer has had a rough second half, coughing up a 5.24 ERA and surrendering a .268/.340/.436 line but he has the highest upside of these four arms and could be the real key here. Tomlin is hit and miss but he’s been mostly miss since July 1, posting a 5.53 xERA and allowing a .289/.313/.506 line against. He was removed from the rotation, but with the injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, he’s back. We’ll hold our nose and hope for the best in the one game he pitches in.
After being banished to the pen in July, Clay Buchholz rejoined the rotation briefly in August and then for good in September. In a small sample of eight starts/48.1 innings, he’s produced a 3.17 ERA. You never know when Good Buchholz or Bad Buchholz will show up, but Good Buchholz is still capable of making a cameo. Rodriguez could be the real difference-maker for the Sox. Since fighting his way back from a demotion to Pawtucket, the lefty has a 3.24 ERA with over a strikeout per inning in 14 starts. The Indians aren’t a great matchup for him, however, what with their right-handed power bats, and he was beyond shaky in his final two starts. Buchholz and Rodriguez do not scare us one bit.
Relief Pitchers (Innings, ERA, xERA)
Red Sox
RHP - Craig Kimbrel: 53, 3.40, 3.01
RHP - Koji Uehara: 47, 3.45, 2.80
RHP - Brad Ziegler: 68, 2.25, 3.00
LHP - Drew Pomeranz: 170.7, 3.32, 3.03
LHP - Robbie Ross Jr.: 55.3, 3.25, 3.79
RHP - Matt Barnes: 66.7, 4.05, 4.05
RHP - Joe Kelly: 40, 5.17, 3.69.
Indians
RHP - Cody Allen: 69.3, 2.99, 2.76
LHP - Andrew Miller: 61.7, 2.04, 1.84
RHP - Bryan Shaw: 66.7, 3.24, 3.71
RHP - Dan Otero: 70.7, 1.53, 3.06
RHP - Jeff Manship: 43.3, 3.12, 4.69
RHP - Zack McAllister: 52.3, 3.44, 4.91
RHP - Cody Anderson: 60.7, 6.68, 4.72
RHP - Mike Clevinger: 53, 5.26, 4.79
Here is where Cleveland probably holds the biggest edge in this series. How do you stop the best offense in baseball? With baseball’s best reliever. Andrew Miller has been as filthy as ever since joining the Tribe, striking out 46 batters in 29 innings with a 1.55 ERA. He is uniquely well suited to the task of preventing David Ortiz from David Ortizing late in the game. Allen is an outstanding closer, and Shaw and Otero provide the Indians with a level of bullpen depth the Red Sox lack. The last four guys in the group aren’t terribly inspiring, but the first four are.
The Red Sox’s bullpen is capable of shutting teams down, but they’re also capable of blowing leads very, very quickly. Craig Kimbrel went on a dominant run after his return from knee surgery, but he’s been shaky of late, surrendering six earned runs in his last four appearances. His command has come and gone all season. Ziegler was a savvy mid-season pickup by Dave Dombrowski. While he’s not an elite bullpen arm, he’s a solid seventh- or eighth-inning guy who can induce ground balls in big spots.
The real wildcards for the Red Sox are Uehara and Pomeranz. Koji hasn’t allowed a run since coming off the DL in early September, giving the Red Sox the primary setup option they lacked for so much of the year. Pomeranz started all year but has experience coming out of the bullpen and could be the big LHP weapon the Sox need to neutralize bats like Kipnis. Cleveland has the clear advantage here, but the Sox at least have the potential to hold leads, too.
Defense
On paper, these teams are pretty even defensively. The Indians have the slight edge in the infield; it’s pretty close at second and third but the Tribe holds an advantage at first base and shortstop. The Red Sox would appear to have a slight edge behind the plate (thanks in large part to Vazquez) and especially in the outfield. When Betts, Bradley and Benintendi are in the field at the same time, Boston has the most gifted defensive outfield this side of Pittsburgh.
Managers
Both John Farrell and Terry Francona are known more as good clubhouse presences and players’ managers than genius tacticians. Francona is willing and eager to use platoons to his advantage, and while he can be slow to call upon the bullpen, you can be fairly confident with him calling the shots. His use of Andrew Miller should be commended. Farrell is ... better than Bobby Valentine! His bullpen decisions can be suboptimal, especially when it comes to pulling his starters but he’s not afraid to go to high-leverage guys early and he’s not afraid to pinch-hit for bad bats, either. Francona is clearly better in our view.
This series should be a good one. The Red Sox have the higher ceiling on paper, what with the best offense in baseball, their one-two punch atop the rotation and a bullpen that rounded into form late in the season. But the Indians are incredibly well-rounded, steal more bases, have a better defensive infield and can shut anyone down in the late innings. Thanks to their young players and power hitters, both teams are, to use a technical term, fun as hell to watch. The market would have you believe that Boston has a big edge here but that is simply not true. Cleveland has home field advantage, where they went 53-28 this season and also defeated Boston seven times in nine games at Progressive Field.
TEXAS -1½ +154 over Toronto
No question that this series is a toss-up but that’s only because the Rangers have a big edge in Game 1. Should the Jays happen to steal Game 1, things could turn sour very quickly for the Rangers. However, we’re betting that the Jays run into trouble in the first game because Marco Estrada is extremely unlikely to pitch deep into this game and that leaves a troubled Jays’ bullpen to finish. If everything goes perfect for Estrada, he’ll go six full but a more likely scenario is that he won’t make it out of the sixth because his pitch count is always high. We’ll elaborate more on that after we set it up.
Last year's Rangers-Blue Jays series was one of the most compelling ALDS of all time, as Toronto escaped with a Game 5 win at home thanks to Jose Bautista's three-run homer and benches-clearing, hot take-generating bat-flip. Since then the two teams have exchanged brush-back pitches, takeout slides, and actual punches, not to mention endless quotes about how much they dislike each other. And now they're ready for Game 1, this time with the Rangers holding home-field advantage.
Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG)
Blue Jays:
2B-R Devon Travis (.300/.332/.454)
3B-R Josh Donaldson (.284/.404/.549)
1B-R Edwin Encarnacion (.263/.357/.529)
RF-R Jose Bautista (.234/.366/.452)
C-R Russell Martin (.231/.335/.398)
SS-R Troy Tulowitzki (.254/.318/.443)
DH-L Michael Saunders (.253/.338/.478)
CF-R Kevin Pillar (.266/.303/.376)
LF-L Ezequiel Carrera (.248/.323/.356)
Toronto’s lineup is absolutely stacked with right-handed pop, as each of the first six right-handed hitters has 20-plus-homer power and the 2-3-4 of Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista is a nightmare to get through. Despite that on-paper imbalance, the Blue Jays had an even platoon split this season and last season. All of which makes for some interesting matchups in this series, because the Rangers will be starting a lefty in three of five games, but will be using primarily righty relievers.
Most of those right-handed hitters are veterans who grind out at-bats and the Blue Jays led the league in walks during the regular season, so righty or lefty they're all about wearing down the opposing pitchers before delivering a 450-foot knockout blow. And while their offense gets most of the attention, the Blue Jays' defense ranked among baseball's best in park-adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Martin was a top-five pitch-framer behind the plate. Walks, homers, and defense are a pretty nice combination.
Rangers:
LF-R Carlos Gomez (.231/.298/.384)
CF-R Ian Desmond (.285/.335/.446)
DH-S Carlos Beltran (.295/.337/.513)
3B-R Adrian Beltre (.300/.358/.521)
2B-L Rougned Odor (.271/.296/.502)
C-R Jonathan Lucroy (.292/.355/.500)
RF-L Shin-Soo Choo (.242/.357/.399)
1B-L Mitch Moreland (.238/.298/.422)
SS-R Elvis Andrus (.302/.362/.439)
It’s remarkable how well general manager Jon Daniels and the Rangers remade their lineup on the fly, adding Desmond on a bargain contract this offseason and Lucroy, Beltran, and Gomez in midseason pickups. Beltran replaced Prince Fielder, whose career was cut short by injuries, and the 39-year-old veteran of 11 previous postseason series is hugely important as a switch-hitter breaking up a string of right-handed bats. Lucroy had a big second half after coming over in a deal from the Brewers, slugging .539 with 11 homers in 47 games, and will also be counted on to steal a few strikes per game behind the plate. Gomez, left for dead after a brutal stint in Houston, hit .284/.362/.543 in 33 games for the Rangers and brings center-field range to a corner spot.
Texas has free-swingers up and down the lineup--Odor in particular will swing at anything, including Bautista--but Beltre and company don't strike out much and Choo’s return from the disabled list combined with the additions of Beltran and Lucroy give the Rangers a few grinders. They ranked among the AL’s top five in batting average, homers, and runs this season overall and posted the league’s third-highest slugging percentage in the second half. And they can do some running too, with Gomez, Desmond, Andrus, and Odor giving manager Jeff Banister base-stealing options if he wants to get aggressive.
Benches:
Upton will likely start in left field against left-handers Cole Hamels and Martin Perez, and will probably be Toronto’s most-used player off the bench as well, providing manager John Gibbons with power, speed, and defensive options. Smoak also figures to see action as a pinch-hitter capable of going deep in counts and popping the occasional long ball. Pompey got a grand total of two plate appearances in the majors this season, but he’s around for his late-inning wheels and has swiped 40 bases in 170 career games at Triple-A.
Rangers:
Choo’s return combined with Mazara’s late-season slump pushes the rookie to the bench, but with 20 homers in 145 games and a .274/.332/.459 line off righties, Banister should be able to find some use for the 21-year-old’s lefty bat. Rua could find himself in some key spots versus Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup, or Francisco Liriano as a right-handed bat called upon in place of Choo or Moreland.
Starting Pitchers (IP, ERA, xERA)
RHP Marco Estrada (176, 3.48, 4.40)
LHP Cole Hamels (201, 3.32, 2.65)
Estrada’s changeup is such a weapon that he’s been one of the hardest-to-hit starters for the past two years despite a high-80s fastball. We have covered this numerous times over that span and our position has not changed. Estrada has been somewhat better the past month regarding throwing strikes but he’s still falling behind in the count far too often. Furthermore, this ballpark is about the worst possible venue for him, as it caters to hard hit balls in the gap and home runs. Estrada lives on the edge with warning track shots galore and as an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Estrada’s low hit rate and high strand rate continue to do the heavy lifting. Nearly half his metrics are in a steady decline and there's a dangerous level of disconnect between 2015 and 2016 returns and his xERA. We always trust xERA when it comes to investing.
If any left-handed pitcher can survive the Blue Jays’ gauntlet of right-handed power, it’s Cole Hamels, whose changeup has been baffling righty bats for a decade. His lifetime splits include a .676 OPS versus lefties and a .679 OPS versus righties.With filthy stuff and a worm-killing sinker (72% grounders) there's absolutely no reason for Hamels to intentionally nibble at the plate. A 14% swing and miss rate indicates that Hamels' arsenal is a potent as ever and his three legitimate swing & miss pitches (change -28% swing and miss rate, curve -17% swing and miss rate, cutter -14% swing and miss rate) make him one of the game’s best. That leads us to the bullpens.
Osuna’s health is one of the biggest factors in Game 1 and possibly the series after the 21-year-old stud closer exited the Wild Card game with a shoulder injury. Gibbons insists it’s a minor issue, but Osuna may not be available in Game 1 and could be limited throughout the series, which along with Joaquin Benoit’s season-ending injury would leave the Blue Jays very short-handed in the bullpen. That puts added pressure on the rest of the bunch and puts them is situations they are not accustomed to. Grilli has closing experience but the 39-year-old also served up 10 homers in 59 innings while struggling with his control.
In the second half, the Rangers’ bullpen posted a 3.50 ERA with similarly strong secondary numbers, as Jeffress joined the mix as part of the Lucroy trade and Banister leaned heavily on the Dyson-Bush-Kela trio. They’re lacking in household names and true shutdown options, but there’s quantity and decent quality, with five solid right-handers to match up against the Blue Jays’ righty-heavy lineup.'
Texas also has home field advantage and the superior starter here by a wide margin. They also have a big edge in the bullpen, at least for Game 1. Finally, Toronto’s celebration after winning the Wild Card game was more like a World Series win than a Wild Card win. While we totally understand how a team can get caught up in the moment, especially with 50,000+ fans going berserk, a letdown is very possible after such an emotional high. Let us take you back to last year’s historic bat-flipping home run by Jose Bautista that was very similar to EE’s on Tuesday, although Bautista’s wasn’t a walk off. Both jacks occurred in Toronto and both games were win or go home scenarios. Both celebrations were similar too. After that emotional win over Texas last year and the celebrations that followed, Toronto went into K.C. two days later to open the ALCS and was held to zero runs on three hits. Extremely emotional victories have a way of doing that so Toronto could be very flat here.
We have Toronto to win the World Series so if the Jays win here it’s not the worst thing. The worst thing is the Rangers winning by one run but they have pretty much used up all of their one-run victories this year and we’re counting on a sup-par effort both from the Jays and their very lucky starting pitcher.
World Series Winner Toronto to win WS +1085
First things first, which means the Jays have to get by Baltimore, which may or may not happen but if Toronto can pull this one out, things may start to happen for them.
These American League East rivals come in with identical 89-73 records. Toronto hosts the game thanks to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, going 10-9 versus Baltimore during the regular season. The Blue Jays were 46-35 at home and the Orioles were 39-42 on the road. Winner goes to Texas for the ALDS. Loser goes fishing/hunting/golfing.
Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG/)
Blue Jays:
RF-L Ezequiel Carrera (.248/.323/.356)
3B-R Josh Donaldson (.284/.404/.549)
1B-R Edwin Encarnacion (.263/.357/.529)
DH-R Jose Bautista (.234/.366/.452/.270)
C-R Russell Martin (.231/.335/.398)
SS-R Troy Tulowitzki (.254/.318/.443)
LF-L Michael Saunders (.253/.338/.478)
CF-R Kevin Pillar (.266/.303/.376)
2B-R Devon Travis (.300/.332/.454)
Toronto's lineup is very right-handed and seemingly built to crush lefties, but both this year and last year the Blue Jays actually had relatively even platoon splits. Orioles’ right-hander Chris Tillman was slightly less effective versus righties than lefties this season (and for his career), so this is a pretty decent on-paper matchup for the Blue Jays' hitters. They faced Tillman four times this season, scoring 10 runs in 22.1 innings with a 16/9 K/BB ratio. Carrera was a bit player for much of the season, but manager John Gibbons turned to him in the leadoff spot against righties down the stretch. It's an odd role for a 29-year-old career .255/.314/.351 hitter, but Toronto lacks appealing traditional leadoff options and his left-handed bat does break up all the righties a bit. Despite ranking 12th in batting average, the Blue Jays scored the AL's fifth-most runs thanks to leading the league in walks and placing third in homers. Their production fell off in September, but Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista is as scary as any trio in baseball and the lineup is capable of hanging crooked numbers, especially at home.
Orioles:
CF-R Adam Jones (.265/.310/.436)
LF-L Hyun-Soo Kim (.302/.382/.420)
3B-R Manny Machado (.294/.343/.533)
DH-R Mark Trumbo (.256/.316/.533)
C-S Matt Wieters (.243/.309/.409)
1B-L Chris Davis (.221/.332/.459)
2B-R Jonathan Schoop (.267/.298/.454)
RF-L Michael Bourn (.264/.314/.371)
SS-R J.J. Hardy (.269/.309/.407)
Baltimore has one of the most powerful lineups in baseball history, leading the majors with 253 long balls--28 more than any other team. In fact, manager Buck Showalter has so much pop from which to choose that he may opt for Bourn over Pedro Alvarez, which improves the outfield defense by shifting Trumbo to designated hitter. Alvarez smacked 22 homers and slugged .504 in 337 at-bats, but last started a game on September 27.
Whereas the Blue Jays have a walks-and-power lineup, the Orioles are mostly just the power part. They ranked 10th among AL teams in walks and posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage in the second half. Davis drew 88 free passes, while Trumbo was second on the team with just 51 in 667 trips to the plate. Kim, whom the Orioles tried to ditch after a bad spring training, proved to be a key cog thanks to his patience and on-base skills in front of Machado and the big boppers. As a group they can be pitched to, but if a pitcher leaves a mistake in the strike zone, he'll be asking for a new baseball. A smart pitcher can get these Orioles to swing and miss at a lot of bad balls. Marcus Stroman is supposed to be smart and if he can execute, he'll be just fine.
Last season, Stroman returned from a torn ACL to become the Blue Jays' most-trusted playoff starter. This season he stayed healthy, starting 32 games and logging 204 innings, but Stroman was inconsistent and mostly mediocre. His underlying numbers were much better than his ERA however. Stroman's second half included a 3.68 ERA and 83/21 K/BB ratio in 88 innings, but even that consisted of a great July-August followed by a shaky September in which he went 0-5. As an extreme ground-ball pitcher, Stroman is well-suited to shut down the Orioles' powerful, homer-dependent lineup but he did serve up 21 long balls. His 3.55 xERA reveals his high ceiling and when he’s on, he’s damn good. While a 9.3% swing and miss rate caps Stroman’s strikeout potential, his ability to keep the ball on the ground at an elite 60% rate gives him a unique skill that figures to serve him well no matter where he pitches.
Chris Tillman missed three weeks from late August through mid-September with a shoulder injury and mostly struggled upon returning, failing to make it out of the sixth inning in any of his final three starts while showing decreased velocity. He had a decent outing against the Blue Jays in his regular season finale, but walked three and struck out two while needing 92 pitches to record 17 outs. It's no surprise that the Orioles are turning to Tillman with their season on the line--he has a 3.81 ERA in 845 innings since 2012--but between his late-season issues and 7.01 career ERA in Toronto, the O’s can't be feeling especially confident. We don’t either. Tillman is as mediocre as they come and while anything can happen in one game, his chances of thriving are far less than Stroman’s chances based on everything we know about the two. Tillman’s 3.77 ERA is misleading, as his low strand rate and low hit % did the heavy lifting. His 5.06 xERA is a much more accurate reading of his skills.
Relief Pitchers (IP, ERA, xERA)
Blue Jays:
RHP Roberto Osuna (74, 2.68, 3.42)
RHP Jason Grilli (59, 4.12, 4.02)
RHP Joseph Biagini (68, 3.06, 3.90)
LHP Brett Cecil (37, 3.93, 3.37)
Bullpens are damn near unlimited in Wild Card games, but the Blue Jays will be relying mostly on Roberto Osuna in the closer role and the setup trio of Jason Grilli, Joseph Biagini, and Brett Cecil. Left-hander Francisco Liriano, who started and relieved, looms as a potential game-changer if Stroman struggles early. Joaquin Benoit, who was masterful for the Blue Jays after being acquired in another midseason deal, is out for the playoffs with a torn calf muscle. Marco Estrada is on the active roster for this one single game so Gibby can turn to him to as well.
Baltimore has tons of quality bullpen options--including Dylan Bundy, at least for this game--but it's without question Britton's show, with Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, and either Darren O'Day or Donnie Hart playing key supporting roles. Britton may end up winning the Cy Young award depending on how this year's voters decide to treat 67 innings of 0.54 ERA pitching and a helluva "value" narrative, but the Orioles will be mixing and matching to form a bridge from Tillman to him in the ninth (or possibly the eighth) inning.
Managers
Don't expect much action on the bases, as the Orioles and Blue Jays ranked 30th and 28th in steals, respectively. Baltimore stole a grand total of 19 bases all year, including no more than four from any player. Toronto stole 54, with only Kevin Pillar in double figures. Where the Showalter vs. Gibbons matchup will come into play far more is with the bullpens, as both teams are likely to have their starters on a short leash and can play endless matchups in the late innings if needed thanks to reliever-rich one-game rosters. There's no reason for either manager to stick with a struggling pitcher in the name of letting him work through things in these circumstances.
Baltimore has overachieved by projections all season. This is a team of designated hitters with a good pen. Buck Showalter will get a ton of credit by the broadcasters but we’ve seen him make more questionable decisions than almost any manager. Dude is like Mr. Magoo, the cartoon character that drives around with poor eyesight and misses everything. Showalter keeps coming up smelling like roses for some reason but he’s simply not very good. Give the Orioles a bullpen advantage and that would be it.
That said, we are value bettors so again, in one game, playing the Jays at -147 or thereabouts is far too risky and we are not in favor of spotting 1½-runs in a playoff game, especially with the home team. The Orioles are probably the better play based on value but there is no value in losing so we’re going to have to pass on this game but Toronto does offer up some pretty sweet value to win the World Series at close to 11-1. If they win here, they play Texas and from there anything can happen. Defeat Texas and it’s either Boston or Cleveland on deck, which is at worst a 50/50 deal at which point we would likely be in a position to hedge. Therefore, we are going to wager on the Blue Jays to win the World Series and if they lose tonight, oh well.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO +3½ over Arizona
San Francisco's 24-17 Week 4 loss to Dallas is a prime example of why it's important to never overreact to injuries in the NFL, even a star player. When Dez Bryant was officially scratched last week, San Fran went from a +2½-point pooch to a one-point pooch by game time. Bryant was not missed, as the Cowboys were able to move the ball just fine with a rookie in his place. The market overreacted to the Bryant injury and now it is overreacting to the loss. Thursday night games are often hard to watch but the short week does favor the home team. There have been three Thursday games thus far. The past two weeks both the Texans and Dolphins were flat as hell. In the first Thursday game of the year, the Jets had a short trip to Buffalo but the road team is at a clear disadvantage in these games.
Carson Palmer left Sunday's game against the Rams after getting concussed and he’s out, which means Ryan Stanton is in. What’s more interesting than Palmer’s injury is that the odds makers couldn’t care less about whether or not Palmer was available because they did not hesitate to post the line for this one. In other words and according to the odds makers, the loss of Palmer means nothing.
So far the only team that the Cardinals beat was the visiting Buccaneers. The problem is not so much that their defense has declined but that the offense is just not posting points like they did in 2015. That deadly passing attack that used three different wideouts now is mostly just about finding Larry Fitzgerald. The 1-3 Cardinals are not likely to fix what ails them in two days. Incidentally, in its only road game, the Cards were whacked by Buffalo.
The 49ers opened the year with a shutout over the Rams but since then nothing has worked. Not only have they lost their last three games but only the home tilt versus the Cowboys was even remotely close. The dink-n-dunk style of San Fran’s passing game may match Blaine Gabbert's strengths but it hasn't done much to post points or gain yards or control the clock. Field position will be key here, as will turnovers. Look, there isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which team will turn it over more. If we had that info, we would have the winner. What we do have is the ability to make a choice and go with the best of it here. In what figures to be a low scoring game with little time to prepare, taking the home side plus points in a game they can win outright is the prudent choice here.
SPORTS WAGERS
LOUISIANA TECH +116 over W. Kentucky
At this time last year, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech were poised to square off in a heavyweight bout for all the Conference USA ages. QB’s Brandon Doughty versus Kenneth Dixon was the main attraction in that contest and the game lived up to the billing, as the Hilltoppers escaped the Bulldogs 51-48 in Bowling Green, Kentucky. This time around both Doughty and Dixon are gone and the Bulldogs now get the ‘Toppers in their barn for another installment of a budding rivalry and Tech couldn’t be in a better position. As a pooch, Louisiana Tech is 2-0 at home this season and that is something worth noting even if the 2-3 record is not. The Bulldogs were in every game they lost this season, so they could just as easily be 5-0 had a few things gone their way. Who were the three teams that Louisiana Tech lost to? #20 Arkansas in Fayetteville, 21-20, Texas Tech by a score of 59-45 and most recently Middle Tennessee State in Murfreesboro 38-34 . We have been bullish on the Blue Raiders as a whole for the C-USA crown this season and so far they have backed up our rationale marvelously. The same cannot be said for Western Kentucky.
While they stand at 3-2 thus far, Western Kentucky does not own a win against a team this season that will cause us to bat an eye. The Hilltoppers’ victories come against Rice, Houston Baptist and Miami Ohio, not exactly the cream of the crop to say the least. Combined, that aforementioned trio that WKU has defeated is 2-13 with both victories being by Houston Baptist against FCS opponents. Conversely against SEC opponents, the Hilltoppers racked up two losses against both Alabama and Vanderbilt. In addition, the Hilltoppers have failed to cover in their last four outings, signifying this team has been grossly overvalued as a whole all season long and a market adjustment has still not been made.
Given their portfolio of results season-to-date combined with Louisiana Tech’s deceptive 2-3 record, there is an abundance of equity in taking this home pup with the points, as they may drop WKU outright. Western Kentucky’s defense was exposed against Vanderbilt, a team that is not known for offense by any stretch. WKU lost 10 starters on defense and the replacements have not paid their dues just yet. The question now becomes whether or not Western Kentucky’s offense can trade punches with Louisiana Tech’s offense. We think not. Tech’s offense is seemingly still relevant even without Kenneth Dixon and therefore we are going to pass on the points and play the host to win outright.
Wunderdog
Toronto @ Texas
Pick: Under 9
There's plenty of talent on offense, but don't overlook the power of the pitching staffs. Texas has a pair of aces and a great bullpen, while Toronto finished #12 in baseball in team ERA - fifth in the AL. The Rangers' bullpen had a string of 35+ scoreless innings come to an end in the regular-season finale. Texas rolls out ace Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA), with 200 strikeouts in 200 innings. Texas is on an 8-3-2 run UNDER the total, plus four of their last five playoff games have gone UNDER as managers use their best arms this time of the season (except Buck Showalter). Into town comes Toronto, a strong all-around team, including defense in the field on a 20-7 run UNDER the total, as well as 23-9 UNDER on the road. The Blue Jays go with Marco Estrada (3.48 ERA), who has a 3.39 ERA on the road where batters hit .193 off him. He has been strong down the stretch, allowing a total of two runs in 19 innings over his final three starts. Estrada is a veteran who did some of his best work in the playoffs last season with a 2-1 record and a 2.33 ERA in three starts to go along with 15 strikeouts and one walk. One of those wins came at Texas, where Estrada breezed through 6+ innings on one run and five hits to help Toronto avoid elimination in Game 3 of a 5-1 win. The UNDER is 23-8 when Estrada faces a winning team, plus Toronto is 33-15-5 UNDER the total against a lefty starter.
Harry Bondi
Temple / Memphis Over 59
Not only do we have two teams that have combined to average nearly 80 points per game this season, but we also have a pair of defenses that will both be playing on just four days rest, which will make for some tired legs and a huge advantage for the two offenses. Over the last three weeks these teams have collectively gone 5-1 to the over and we’ll call for those high-flying shootouts to continue here tonight on a field in which Memphis has gone over in 10 of the last 16 games.
David Banks
Arizona @ San Francisco
Pick:San Francisco +3.5
After reaching the NFC Championship game last season, the Cardinals are off to a 1-3 start. In San Francisco, it was kind of expected that the 49ers would be 1-3 after four games. After beating the Rams handily in Week 1, it’s been all downhill for new head coach Chip Kelly and the 49ers. Their passing game is terrible. The defense gives up points by the dozens, and San Francisco’s best linebacker, NaVorro Bowman is done for the season. Bowman suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon and will undergo surgery.
It’s bad in San Francisco, but it’s bad in Arizona as well. The Cardinals dropped games to the Patriots, Bills, and Rams who all played without key starters. Arizona’s defense, normally a strength, is not playing well. In last week’s loss to Los Angeles, QB Carson Palmer was injured when he was sacked in the fourth quarter. He is currently undergoing the NFL’s concussion protocol and head coach Bruce Arians says that there is a chance that he will play Thursday night.
If Palmer cannot go, it will be up to backup Drew Stanton who threw a costly interception late in the loss to the Rams. The 49ers have begun to figure out Kelly’s up-tempo offense and are running the ball well (110 yards per game, 10th in the NFL). Quarterback Blaine Gabbert just is not the answer. He is completing just 58 percent of his passes and has thrown four interceptions thus far.
The Cardinals need a win badly or their hopes of the postseason are gone. Both Los Angeles and Seattle have proven that they have the ability to be playoff teams. It’s time that Arizona does too.
Brad Wilton
Louisiana Tech is off to a 2-3 start this year, both wins coming at home, but defeating SC State and UTEP is not the same as beating the Hilltoppers tonight in Ruston.
While backing the home dog in a prime time game holds some allure, I will not tread with the Bulldogs in this spot, as Western Kentucky may no longer have Brandon Doughty at quarterback, but Jeff Brohm's team has done a credible job in winning 3 of 5 so far this season.
These teams have split the last pair of series meetings, the home team with the win and the cover in both meetings to date. Yes, La Tech is the home dog, a role they have not been in the past 2 seasons, but they are 0-3 as the home underdog dating back to 2012.
Western Kentucky is 4-2-1 as the road favorite since last season, and I will look for them to up that mark to 5-2-1 with the road win and cover on Thursday.
4* WESTERN KENTUCKY
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Over in the Hilltoppers-Bulldogs contest from Ruston, Louisiana.
Even though the Hilltoppers have landed Under the total in 4 of their 5 games this season, suggest playing the Over in this Conference USA battle in Ruston against Louisiana Tech.
Last season the teams combined for 79 points and an Over, and the season before they ended on 69 combined points and a push. It sure seems like when these teams meet the points tend to add up.
QB Brandon Doughty is no longer piloting the attack for Jeff Brohm's team, but even with the offensive production a little down from previous attacks, I think we will see some points being scored in this under the lights meeting with the Bulldogs who have put up 4 touchdowns or more in each of their last 4 games, and have played Over the total in 3 of their 5 this season.
Big total, but it gets toppled on Thursday night. Western Kentucky-Louisiana Tech to go Over.
2* WESTERN KENTUCKY-LOUISIANA TECH OVER
Bruce Marshall
Red Sox / Indians Over 8.5
Edge would seem to be with the Bosox and Rick Porcello tonight, especially since the Sox have won in of Porcello's last 11 starts. But the Cleveland offense has been nothing if not resourceful this season, and Porcello has not oitched beyond six innings in his last two starts. Meanwhile, Cleveland has had to push Corey Kluber back to game 2, and Thursday starter Trevor Bauer has not been sharp in recent outings, with a 6.39 ERA since September.
Bob Balfe
Red Sox / Indians Over 8.5
Both teams have consistently hit right handed pitching very well this season. Bauer struggled a bit down the stretch for the Indians and I think this is the type of game we see fireworks and we see them right out of the gates. Both teams should put up 4 runs each pretty early in a high scoring game.
The Real Animal
Temple +10
These teams have met three times and Temple has won two of them while covering all three. Last year it was a 31-12 whipping by the Owls with a 461-232 edge as they put pressure all game on Paxton Lynch. Last Saturday Temple scored 35 unanswered points against SMU. Meanwhile Memphis could be physically drained defensively after being taken to the woodshed by Ole Miss for 34 first downs, 624 yards, and 48 points. Memphis QB Riley Ferguson threw three interceptions last week without a touchdown. Temple has won three out of four in blowout fashion albeit against soft competition losing only by seven points to Penn State following their dreadful season-opening defeat to Army. But the Cadets are much-improved this year as their record and sound play indicates. I’m not seeing a 10-point disparity between these two teams with the soft defense Memphis has been playing. QB Walker has seen everything for Owls. Plus Temple coach Matt Rhule’s coaching career record is 12-2 ATS as an underdog of more than seven points. Take the double digits with Temple.
Chris Jordan
Going to take a shot with the Cleveland Indians, as I think they need to treat this as a must-win, against the high-powered Boston Red Sox.
The Sox have arguably the best offense in baseball, while the Tribe comes into the postseason with a pitching staff that can dominate when its clicking. Cleveland's staff is going to be key for it to escape this series, so it begins tonight.
Trevor Bauer gets the Game 1 nod after posting a stellar campaign - possibly the best of his young career. In three games - two starts - against Boston in his career, and the right-hander has a brutal 12.91 ERA over 7 2/3 innings. So getting this win is essential.
I like his chances. I'm not going to insist on listing pitchers, as I don't care who goes - they all have to perform. Take the Tribe tonight.
1* INDIANS
Scott Delaney
And while my premium play for tonight is on the total on the pro gridiron, my free winner for Thursday night is on a baseball total, as I like the Red Sox and Indians to go over the posted number.
This is going to be an emotional series for both teams, for several reasons. See, for the first time since leaving Boston, Cleveland manager Terry Francona will face his former team in the postseason. Francona won two World Series titles with the Red Sox.
Meanwhile, Boston is saying good bye to David Ortiz, who will retire when this postseason is over. Thus, the Sox are playing for Big Papi and won't want to let him down.
Now, that being said, let's talk about the pitchers you will have on your ticket, because it is an automatic listing and we should acknowledge Rick Porcello and Trevor Bauer.
So Boston was baseball's best road team after the All-Star break, going 27-17 and finishing an AL-best 46-35 away from Fenway Park. Now they face a pitcher who in three games (two starts) against Boston in his career, has a 12.91 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. The Red Sox will be looking to jump all over the right-hander early.
Cleveland is going to have to respond, and will hope to attack Porcello, who some say is a front-runner for the AL’s Cy Young Award. Whether or not that's true, I'm not sure. But what is true is the Indians ranked sixth during the regular season with a .262 batting average, and No. 3 with a home batting average of .288.
These two are going to get over tonight, as the lineups come to life.
4* OVER Red Sox/Indians
Bob Valentino
My free play for Thursday night is on the Over in the Western Kentucky-Louisiana Tech contest, in Ruston, Louisiana.
Look for a high scoring contest between these Conference USA rivals, as Louisiana Tech will be looking for revenge from last season, and Western Kentucky will be looking to flex muscle as the defending conference champs.
The Hilltoppers are averaging 44.3 points per game, while the Bulldogs are putting up 37.5 points per outing. Tonight I suspect both will get into the 40s, in a game that could come down to which team is holding the ball last.
With this being a nationally televised home game, the Bulldogs are looking to exact revenge from a close loss to WKU last year. And I think senior quarterback Ryan Higgins will come in with a chip on his shoulder, after passing for 191 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 42 yards and another score on the ground, in a win over UTEP last week.
Look for this one to soar, and the number to be tight, in terms of the point spread. The total, however, won't even be a question, as it goes over.
5* OVER Western Kentucky/La Tech
Dr Bob
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
A pair of NFC West teams with vastly different expectations coming into the season square off on Thursday Night.
The Cardinals were a Super Bowl favorite headed into the year, however they are now 1-3 and down their starting QB. The defense has been solid all year, allowing an opponent 38% offensive success rate and 4.8 YPP. Despite these gaudy defensive numbers, opposing teams have been able to still average 20 Points per Game (ppg) due to high variance big plays (48% chunk yardage given up). If the defense continues to play at this level, Arizona would be expected to give up 18 ppg going forward. Offensively while they have not had the success with the deep ball as previous years, they still are averaging a respectable 6.5 NYPP and 4.3 YPR, but Stanton in place of Palmer will be a dropoff.
The Niners have faced a difficult schedule, facing three 3-1 teams and the defending NFC super bowl representative. The offense has been bad in all phases, averaging a paltry 40% success rate and 4.7 YPP. It will be a tough test on a short week against a stout Cardinals defense. Defensively the Niners have been average, giving up a 47% success rate, although as with the Cardinals, they are giving up more points than expected, allowing 27 points per game, which is partly due to the average 31.6 Starting field position the opposing offenses have enjoyed.
Looking through the single spectrum of historical Net Yards per Pass (which is by no means comprehensive), Carson Palmer to Drew Stanton is a 3.8 point dropoff. The spread has moved accordingly. However, totals wise these are two offensively challenged teams with two defenses that have outperformed the scores allowed and our advanced stats model shows value on the Under, so UNDER (43) is a *1-star Best Bet.