Free Picks for Thursday, September 14th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Marc Lawrence
Texans vs. Bengals
Play: Under 38½
Edges - Bengals: 3-8 UNDER on Thursdays… Texans: 4-7 UNDER in this series, including 0-4 UNDER the last four… With the Bengals having gone 0-4 UNDER in Game Two the last four years, we recommend a 1* play in the UNDER total in this game.
Raphael Esparza
UMass at Temple
Play: Under 52½
Both teams have been struggling on offense and Thursday night in Lincoln Financial Field we should see a very low-scoring battle between these two. The Temple Owls have scored 16 points in both games this young season, and last weekend they beat Villanova 16-13 and the Owls at home is always a tough place to score points. UMass last weekend actually lost to Old Dominion 17-7 at home, and if they only scored 7 points against ODU what is going to happen Thursday night on the road? I see Temple controlling the clock with establishing the run early, and in the second half I see the Owls controlling the tempo and this game easily flies UNDER. In Temple's last 12 home games 9 of them have gone UNDER, and the Owls following a ATS win are 1-10 O/U, and, again, the Owls defense keeps this total UNDER.
Vernon Croy
Detroit at Chicago
Play: Over 10
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and the Tigers have hit .286 as a team lifetime against Shields, with an OBP of .336. Shields has an ERA of 5.45 in day games this season and an ERA of 5.66 over 11 starts since the All-Star break. Bell has struggled with an ERA of 7.18 since the All-Star break, and this is just his 3rd start out of the bullpen. Opponents have hit .361 against Bell over his two starts this season with an OBP of .452, and he has an ERA of 6.05 in day games this season. Play the OVER and make sure you get on my 19-7 73% +$4,990 football run that continues this week with my 8-Unit NFL Game of the Year.
DAVE COKIN
NEW MEXICO AT BOISE STATE
PLAY: NEW MEXICO +14.5
The only reason I’m not actually playing UNM in this game is concern that this investigation could serve as a major distraction to the current players and coaching staff. That’s something I’m hoping to gain some insight on tonight.
Otherwise, it would seem to be a decent spot for the Lobos. Boise State is off a potentially demoralizing come from ahead OT loss to Washington State. I certainly don’t have a problem going against big chalk pieces off a defeat of that nature.
The Broncos used to have what might have been the strongest home field advantage in all of college football. It was basically play on Boise State on the blue turf or leave the game alone. But that dominance has waned considerably since Chris Peterson departed Boise for the greener and more prestigious PAC-12 pastures. This is just not the program it used to be.
The majority of the bettors evidently aren’t subscribing to any downturn for the Broncos. As usual, Boise State is commanding the vast majority of the action tonight as far as the ticket count is concerned. That’s not the case on those all-important dollars, however. Money started showing on the underdog on Wednesday and the number, which had gone up to 16.5, dropped a couple of points to current consensus of 14.5.
If the Lobos aren’t impacted by the off the field circus that is now taking place, I think there’e every chance they give Boise State a run for its money tonight. But I’m only going the opinion route on this game, and will instead try to make this a learning experience as to what might take place the rest of the way for New Mexico. But if you’re looking for a side to speculate on this evening, I’d side with the road dog.
Ray Monohan
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Marlins -119
Miami starter Jose Urena has been stellar in his recent run. He's won 4 of his last 5 decisions overall and last time out against Philadelphia is he was dominant. Urena allowed just 1 run over 7.0 innings of work, as he has been in some kind of groove lately.
Jake Thompson counters and he's been horrible. He allowed 7 runs over a 5.0 inning span last time out, which marked his 3rd horrific outing in his last 4.
Some trends to note. Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. Phillies are 4-9 in Thompsons last 13 starts.
Given the strong pitching edge, Miami is worth a move.
Jim Feist
Braves at Nationals
Pick: Under
Washington is a big park and a weak Atlanta offense is in town. Mike Foltynewicz is throwing well, allowing 1, 2 and 3 runs his last three starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Foltynewicz's last 5 starts vs. the National League East. Washington is on a 19-7-6 run under the total. Tanner Roark has allowed 3 runs or less in 7 straight starts. Roark (12-9) allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out six batters through six innings during Thursday's win over Philadelphia. The team is 8-1 under the total when he starts.
ASA
Texans vs. Bengals
Play: Texans +6.5
We will grab the points with the Houston Texans (+6.5) over the Cincinnati Bengals Thursday night. Both teams are coming off horrible showings in Week #1 as the Texans lost at home to the Jaguars 29-7 while the Bengals were blanked by the Ravens at home 20-0. Both teams turned the ball over a combined nine times and you clearly can't win when you don't value the football. We expect both teams to bounce back this week and play much better and predict a close game tonight. Last year Cincinnati had an average point differential of +.6PPG while the Texans were minus -3PPG. That would clearly be a solid cover by Houston here in this scenario. The Bengals were 11th in OEFF (offensive efficiency) and 17th in DEFF while the Texans were 30th OEFF, 9th DEFF. Last year these same two teams squared off in a defensive struggle with the Texans winning 12-10 as a home favorite of 3-points. Houston could make the switch at QB to rookie Watson this week which we're fine with, as he's a better option than Savage, but either way the points are too generous. Our predictive ratings have these two teams nearly even on a neutral field with the Bengals holding a slight .4-point advantage. Factoring home field we feel Cincinnati should only be favored by -3.5-points so the value lies with Houston.
Carmine Bianco
Astana vs. Villarreal
Play: Villarreal -1.8
Match Day 1 in Europa League action and we'll lay up to a couple goals here with Spanish side Villarreal. Depending on your book the number is -1 1/2 or -2 but either is a play here. Astana went out in the final round of Champions League qualifying to Celtic and their inability to stay with a quality side on the road was exposed in Scotland as they dropped leg 1 5-0 and that result could have been worse. Their chances of getting out of Group A will come from trying to steal points away at Maccabi Tel Aviv or Slavia Prague as neither possess the continuous attacking style that Villarreal have. Lay the number here in this 1pm game. The Play is Villarreal -1.8 -110 (good at both -1 1/2 and -2)
Tony Finn
Cincinnati at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -195
Cincinnati and St. Louis (-200, 9o-120) close out a three-game set at Busch Stadium on Thursday afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 1:45 p.m. ET with the Reds sending scuffling southpaw Amir Garrett (3-7, 7.39 ERA) to the hill to take on red hot right-hander Luke Weaver (5-1, 2.16).
Weaver registered his fourth straight victory and improved to 5-1 on the season in a 4-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates this past Friday night under the Arch. Weaver also recorded his first big league RBI in the win and today aims to be the first Cardinals rookie in 24 years to win five consecutive starts.
The rookie scattered seven hits over 5 2/3 innings, allowing no runs while striking out seven with no free passes. The Cardinals rest three games back of the first place Chicago Cubs in the National League Central and are three-and-one-half games out of the second and final NL Wild Card slot with 17 games left in the regular season.
The oddsmakers are taking a typical September approach in today's afternoon event. The team that is postseason hopeful - in the middle of the playoff mix - require investors to lay nearly two-to-one on the favorite against a club that is simply playing out the season.
The Reds' lefty Garrett blanked St. Louis on two hits over six innings in his major-league debut in mid-April but the rookie is 0-5 over his last seven starts and is pitching to his mediocre minor-league peripherals after a solid beginning to the 2017 campaign. The outing against the Cardinals this afternoon marks Garrett's first start with the big club since June 20. His return stint in the minors has seen the left-hander continue to struggle with limiting hard contact and the ability to keep the ball in the park.
Garrett has surrendered 22 home runs in only 63 1/3 innings this season. Through 13 starts this season the southpaw has a 7.39 ERA and while the number of home runs per nine innings pitched are staggering his command is just as concerning. He is walking 11 percent of the batters he faces while striking out just 16 percent. Garrett doesn't overpower hitters with his 90 m.p.h. fastball and has allowed 43 percent hard contact on the season. Garrett's 5.14 SIERA is two runs lower than his current earned run average but don't be fooled by his April success as he is an average pitcher at the minor league level and his underlying peripherals, as is, won't allow him success against the big-boy hitters.
Conversely, the other rookie in this afternoon tilt, Weaver, remained perfect in four starts since replacing veteran pitcher Adam Wainwright. Weaver is striking out 31 percent of the hitters he is facing with an 11 percent swinging strike rate. The punch out percentage that Weaver currently sports will without a doubt regress but his SwStr rate and the fact he commands his arsenal walking less than 8 percent of the batters he faces while inducing over 50 percent ground balls is a recipe for a successful big league career.
Umpire Adrian Johnson is scheduled to wear the vest behind home plate in St Louis today. Johnson has a long history of being hitter-friendly and unkind to pitchers who struggle to command their pitches. Don't buy into his 3-plus strikeout to walk ratio this season as it is an aberration. Over the last six MLB seasons the veteran umpire has had only one campaign where he has had more "unders" than "overs" at season's end. That was in 2013 when he closed out the summer with a 16-17 record, overs to unders.
Garrett's lack of command versus Weaver's solid percentage of strikes to total pitches thrown offers the latter a large advantage today with Johnson grading balls and strikes.
While Weaver is easily the better pitching prospect in this matchup the Reds have a lineup capable of going deep. Cincinnati reached 200 homers for the seventh time in franchise history in Wednesday's 6-0 win at Busch when Eugenio Suarez hit the team's seventh grand slam and his 25th home run of the season.
While backing Weaver and the Cardinals today requires that you lay heavy wood (-200) the value and percentages still favor Weaver and the Cardinals who are in the hunt to be a part of October's postseason schedule.
Harry Bondi
New Mexico / Boise St Under 59
Using its patented run-first approach on offense, New Mexico is playing at a slower-than-normal pace so far this season and the result has seen them go under in each of its first two games by an average of 13 points per game. We see no reason for that to change here tonight, especially since Boise State’s offensive output was inflated last week thanks to that crushing triple OT loss to Washington State. The Broncos have also gone under in 10 of their last 13 home games, including a 2-8 record to the under when the line is more than 57 points. Go under!
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +179 over CLEVELAND
Cleveland’s winning streak has taken on a life of its own but it has to come to an end at some point and this is as good a spot as any to see that take place. The Royals have a way of spoiling dreams and they have the talent too. Josh Tomlin may also be Cleveland’s weakest link in the rotation. On the surface, Tomlin’s great numbers over his last three starts (1.84 ERA) comes after he’s put up an ERA over 5.00 for the first five months of the season. Tomlin's xERA shows his skills are virtually unchanged and they're not very good. He does have league-best control working for him (13 walks in 1n 121 innings) but that’s not enough to slow down the HR barrage over the past two seasons. Josh Tomlin is 6-6 at home with a 5.54/5.91 ERA/xERA split and with velocity, swing and miss, and K-rate all headed in the wrong direction, he's playing with fire now and cannot be a near 2-1 favorite. It’s absurd, frankly, as the Royals bats are on fire the past week with a .856 OPS and an average of almost seven runs per game.
The much better starter here will be going for the Royals. Jakob Junis quietly has been very effective since he beginning of August (2.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) and those marks came with the backing of a strong set of skills: 8.6 K’s/9, 0.4 BB’s/9, 46% grounders and an xERA of 2.94. Junis threw strikes at a good rate, both early (64% first-pitch strike rate) and often (33% ball %). Over his last five starts covering 31 innings, Junis has walked three batters while striking out 30 with a 12% swing and miss rate to back it up. If Cleveland’s winning streak continues here, good for them but does anyone even understand how many things have to go right for a team to win 20 games in a row? There’s no such thing as due to lose but there is a thing called overpriced to a high degree and you can put that label on the Tribe when Josh Tomlin is the starter during an historic winning streak.
Atlanta +158 over WASHINGTON
Why stop now? After defeating the Nationals 8-0 in the opener and 8-2 last night against Max Scherzer, the Braves are once again being offered a big price and there’s no reason not to grab it. Again, the Nationals have the Dodgers in this weekend in a much anticipated series while the Braves are completely focused on the task at hand. With injuries to Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy (neck), the Nats lineup looks so much less threatening while the Braves have several hot hitters in their lineup that will face Tanner Roark.
In 27 starts, Roark is 12-9 with a 4.48 ERA. Tanner Roark’s season has been a tale of two seasons. He provided no value in the first half (5.27 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.44 xERA) but he has totally changed course in the second half in which his stats have been great (3.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). His aggregate skills have improved dramatically, too with 9.8 K’s/9, 3.2 BB’s/9, 54% grounders. However, we’re not going to put heavy emphasis on a pitcher that caught fire for a while. While Roark’s underlying skills have been good since the All-Star break, he’s just 5-6 at home with a 5.03 ERA. He’s also been outmaneuvering his pedestrian peripherals to put up decent numbers for three years prior. These skills are fringe-average, he's now 30, and his control is regressing. A reliability grade notwithstanding, Tanner Roark’s first-pitch strike rate last game was 50% and his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split was 26%/26%/47%. He’ll now face an Atlanta team that puts the ball in play, which is why the Braves are such an appealing pup. It may surprise you to learn that the Braves have struck out the fewest times in the NL.
Meanwhile, Mike Foltynewicz has shown flashes of his vast potential, but he has been plagued by inconsistency, struggles against left-handed batters and WHIP fluctuations. He has also reportedly been working to better keep his emotions in check when on the mound, as that has been a problem for him at times—whether it’s frustration with outcomes or with ball/strike calls. Foltynewicz’s is however, on a good run right now with a 3.65/3.77 ERA/xERA over his last three starts after a rough August. This is a young starter with very good stuff that is not out target here. We’ve going after the Nationals this series and we’re not stopping now with the Dodgers arriving tomorrow. Washington has bigger fish to fry.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +6 over CINCINNATI
We're not sure what it says about Texans head coach Bill O'Brien that after an off-season filled with scrimmages, OTAs, practices and preseason games that Tom Savage, the guy O’Brien chose to be his starting quarterback, was benched after just 31 plays in one of the worst halves of football in recent memory. That doesn't matter now, as former Clemson star Deshaun Watson will take the reins tonight. Watson was a hero in Houston after putting together a couple of first downs and he did not look out of place in throwing for 102 yards and a touchdown. It might look like the Texas have a lot working against them here like starting a rooking quarterback, in a road game, on a short week in prime time, but those factors combined with Houston’s awful performance last Sunday against Jacksonville no less, has caused one of the biggest overreactions this week. Losing to Jacksonville at home in the first week of the season in the eyes of the market is equivalent to Michigan losing to a team like Mid-Tennessee State for instance.
Despite Houston’s poor first half showing, the complexion of the team hasn't changed that much. The defense figures to rebound while Watson can cause problems with his ability to scramble and move the chains with his legs. That’s a weapon the Bengals have little time to prepare for. We also cannot count out the emotional and physical toll the effects of Hurricane Harvey had on these Texan players. Many were on the ground helping Houstonians throughout the storm. An emotional pregame ceremony likely did not help matters, as the Texans were flat from the first whistle. Fading the home team after a pregame full of pomp and circumstance is one of our favorite angels and last week was another great example. A road trip and getting right back on the field might not be the worst thing in the world for the Texans here.
Aside from that, did you happen to see the Bengals play last week? The organization has allowed Marvin Lewis a “Belichickian” like control over the team, as he has been in Cincy since 2003. The problem for Lewis is that his “Tom Brady” is Howdy Doody. Dalton completed a pathetic 51.6 percent of his passes in Week 1 while throwing four picks. Turns out the strategy of chucking every ball at A.J. Green until his legs snap is a misguided one. Let’s not forget that the Bengals missed the playoffs last year with a 6-9-1 record. What’s there to like about this team spotting six points? Dalton is inconsistently awful, Marvin is clueless and presiding over all of it is Mike Brown, a man that virtually every Bengals fan is waiting for him to die.
The question after every Week 1 debacle is the same. Are we that bad or were they that good? There's no doubt that the Ravens have a good defense but they throttled the Bengals in their own stadium in dominating fashion. The passing game was not only bad, it mirrored the same sort of results that the Texans had last week as well. While both teams stunk out their respective joints last Sunday, theirs is a big difference between the two losses. Houston had massive distractions last week while the Bengals had none but it was Houston that appears to have done more damage in the marketplace.
Cincinnati is now being asked to win this game by a margin to get the money. With a total of just 38, we don't see an easy path for that to happen. Houston’s defense is rock solid and very much resembles the Ravens. The Texans get a positive jolt with the sooner than expected arrival of their “franchise QB” while the Bengals get no jolt with the continued play of the stale Andy Dalton. Lastly, Houston’s defense has the blueprint to stymie the Bengals attack, as they held Cinci to 10 points last year and six points the previous year. Hell, the Bengals can barely score six points against this defense so one really has to question how they’re going to cover six. Chances are, they’re not.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Chicago vs. Detroit
Play: Detroit -123
These two also-rans are a combined 54 games under .500 with the White Sox having won four of their last five trying to climb out of the AL Central cellar. Detroit has lost five straight and 11 of their past 13 and holds a 2-game lead over Chicago. This is the first of an 11-game home stand for the Tigers who are fresh off a sweep to the Indians as they won their 21 straight game yesterday. James Shields (3-6, 5.40 ERA) gets the start for the White Sox and he has allowed 23 home runs in 98 innings and is 8-8 with a 4.37 ERA in 24 career starts against Detroit. The Tigers will start rookie Chad Bell (0-2, 5.79) and he picks up his first win here.
BRANDON LEE
Royals vs. Indians
Play:Royals +190
It's not easy going against a team that's won 21 straight, but I think it's worth a shot here given the near 2 to 1 odds we are catching on the Royals. I know the talk is about going for the all-time record of 26 straight wins, but they did just set the AL record with their 21st win yesterday. I think there was some pressure and desire to get to 21 and wouldn't be shocked if they suffered a bit of a letdown here against a Royals team that you know would love nothing more than to put an end to this thing. KC will send out Jaob Junus, who has really been throwing the ball well, as he's 5-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last 8 appearances, 6 of which were starts. Indians will send out Josh Tomlin and they are just 1-5 in his last 6 starts against a division opponent and 3-9 in his last 12 series openers.