JIMMY BOYD
Toronto at Minnesota
Play: Toronto +146
I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a big road underdog against the Twins Thursday night. While Toronto is all but out of the Wild Card race, I don't see this team throwing in the towel and they have continued to fight with a 4-1 record over their last 5.
The value here has a lot to do with Blue Jays starter Brett Anderson, who has pitched effectively in all 3 starts since being picked up by Toronto. He's pitched into the 6th inning of each outing and now allowed more than 3 runs in any start. The most impressive stat is that he's not walked a single batter during this stretch.
Minnesota will counter with Jose Berrios, but he could find it difficult here as Toronto sluggers Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista both have excellent numbers in their careers at the Twins' Target Field. It has a lot to do with the Blue Jays 12-5 edge int he series over the last 3 years. It's also worth noting that the Twins are just 1-7 in Berrios' last 8 starts in a series opener and 1-4 in his last 5 vs a team with a losing record.
JACK JONES
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Orioles +177
The Baltimore Orioles are showing tremendous value today as +177 road underdogs to the New York Yankees. The Orioles are fighting to stay alive in the wild card race, and the Yankees are a team that they are chasing, making this a big series for them.
Wade Miley has pitched very well here down the stretch. He is 4-3 with a 3.25 ERA over his last eight starts. In two starts against the Yankees in 2017, Miley has given up just 2 earned runs in 10 innings for a 1.80 ERA.
Masahiro Tanaka is consistently overvalued for the Yankees. He is 11-1 with a 4.82 ERA in 27 starts this season. In two starts against the Orioles in 2017, Tanaka has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings for an 8.43 ERA.
Baltimore is 14-6 (+8.5 Units) against the money line after allowing 1 run or less this season. The Yankees are 0-4 in Tanaka's last four starts vs. Baltimore.
JOHN MARTIN
Athletics vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1.5
The Boston Red Sox should crush the Oakland A's by multiple runs Thursday afternoon. Drew Pomeranz has been dominant at home this season with an 8-2 record and a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts. Pomeranz has a 2.25 ERA in his lone previous start against the A's. Daniel Gossett is 4-8 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 14 starts this year, including 3-5 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in nine road starts. He's in line to get rocked against a potent Red Sox lineup that has scored 9 or more runs in three of their last five games coming in.
Chris Jordan
Nailed the Philadelphia Phillies last night for my 400♦ winner, and tonight I'm playing them against the Miami Marlins as my free play.
There are a number of factors that do it for me with this game, especially with the Phils catching the dog price.
First of all, without trying to make light of the situation with Hurricane Irma, I don't know how any team from the Miami area can focus right now. So when the Marlins left South Beach after their series with the Washington Nationals, they had no idea what was looming. To see it on a TV screen has to cloud thinking and have them worried about loved ones.
Second, the Marlins have lost four in a row and nine of 10, they're now 11 1/2 games back in the National League wild card race and they just don't appear to have life in their game any longer.
And third, while the Marlins are the second-best hitting road team in baseball, they're hitting just .235 in September - the sixth-worst batting average in the majors.
Things have fallen apart for the Fish.
Take Philadelphia in this one.
3* PHILLIES
Tommy Brunson
Thursday's comp play is the Phils over the Marlins.
Get the brooms out at the Bank tonight!
It is clear that while Miami may be sending the better pitcher in Jose Urena to the hill to face Philadelphia's Jake Thompson, the Marlins have simply lost their will to win as we get to the last few weeks of the season.
Miami has dropped 14 of their last 16 games, while Philly has won 5 of the 6 series meetings in that span off the Marlins.
The pitching matchup is the same as it was back on September 3rd when Urena allowed only 1 run in his 7 innings, but received a no-decision. Thompson was up to the task, going 6 frames with 7 K's along the way in a no-decision.
This one comes down to who wants it more, and right now it is sure looking like the Phillies are interested in ending the season the right way.
Gimme the Fightin' Phils tonight.
2* PHILADELPHIA
Jack Brayman
The Kansas City Royals are going to snap the Cleveland Indians' win streak. It just won't be tonight. Cleveland will win this series lid-lifter, and make it to 22 straight wins.
I'm playing this one on the run line, as the Tribe is killing it offensively right now.
During this incredible winning streak, the Indians have outscored opponents 139-35. And seven of the 21 wins during the streak came by way of shutout. Cleveland pitchers lead the major leagues with 19 shutouts, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another one tonight.
When these teams met late last month, the Indians swept a three-game series and shut out Kansas City each game, outscoring the Royals 20-0 in the series.
Take Cleveland on the run line tonight, as my free winner.
3* INDIANS -1.5
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Thursday night is on the Texas Rangers, as they're laying a cheap price to the Seattle Mariners. In this game, I want you listing both scheduled starting pitchers: Andrew Cashner and Felix Hernandez.
I've always been a fan of Hernandez, but the King is making his first start since being placed on the 10-day disabled list back on Aug. 5 with right shoulder bursitis. He steps to the hill with a 7-11 mark, and 4.38 ERA in 24 starts in Arlington in his career.
I'd rather side with Cashner, who is 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA in his past 11 starts. One of those wins was a 5-1 victory on Aug. 2, when he allowed one run in six innings. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in three starts against the Mariners this season.
Take Texas and list both.
2* RANGERS
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Rangers over the Mariners.
The games are running out for both of these A.L. West clubs as they look to snare a Wild Card spot before the regular season ends.
This is the last of 4 between the teams, and after a 5-3 win on Monday, the Rangers have been outscored 18-4 in losing the last pair.
That will change tonight with Andrew Cashner on the mound.
Cashner has been rock-solid for Texas, allowing no more than 2 runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. That includes an August 2nd win over the Mariners in which he worked 6 innings of 1-run ball.
On the other side of the field, King Felix is back for his first start since July 31st when he worked a no-decision against Texas. Hernandez has landed on the DL twice now this season, and I am just not sold on him as the "stopper" on this Mariners team any longer.
The M's had lost 6 in a row on the road prior to winning the last pair.
Look for the Rangers to salvage the split.
3* TEXAS
Joey Juice
Thursday night college football action as a couple of Mountain West Conference teams will face off at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses, as the Lobos lost a very tough game, 30-28 at home to New Mexico State, and the Broncos fell 47-44 to Washington State in OT.
Boise State did win last year at New Mexico in a blowout, 49-21.
A look inside the numbers show that New Mexico is a putrid 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game, and more importantly they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in September.
On the other side of the ball, we see that Boise State is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Look, the Broncos really suffered a letdown down last week when they lost to Washington State, but they are playing a defense this week that has just three starters back and so far, that defense has been awful, especially against the pass, allowing 337.5 ypg through the air so far.
That's going to be big problems on the blue turf versus a Boise State team that threw for 433 yards against Washington State last week.
Like I said, last year the Broncos won this game by a score of 49-21 and they threw for 391 yards in that game, this will be the same game, another Bronco Blowout.
Boise st minus the big wood.
4* BOISE STATE
BEN BURNS
Cincinnati vs. St. Louis
Play: St. Louis
The Cards lost yesterday. However, they're still 8-2 their past 10. Knowing they've got an important series at Wrigley, starting tomorrow, followed by another series against these same Reds, at Cincy, I expect the Cards to be all business this afternoon. The current form of the starters should give them a considerable edge. Weaver is 3-0 with a superb 1.96 ERA his last three starts, 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA in six starts overall. On the other hand, Garrett is 0-2 (team is 0-3) with an ugly 7.36 ERA and 1.704 WHIP his last three. For the season, he's 3-7 with a 7.39 ERA in 13 starts, averaging less than five innings. Yikes. Cards bounce back. Big.
Bruce Marshall
Astros at Angels
Pick: Angels
Ricky Nolasco has not been the most reliable component of the Angels' rotation but the occasional solid effort makes him worth considering in the rubber match of this midweek set vs. the Astros. The Halos offense has kept them in the AL wild card race and the Astros almost assuredly have to use their leaky bullpen behind starter Brad Peacock, who usually doesn't pitch beyond five innings.
DOUG UPSTONE
New Mexico vs. Boise State
Play: New Mexico +15½
These MWC rivals are also off defeats and both in rather bizarre fashion. New Mexico was down 30-5 entering the fourth quarter at home and scored 23 straight points in coming up just short versus in-state rival New Mexico State as 7.5-point favorites. Boise State led Washington 31-10 in the last stanza, but mind-boggling errors and lost 47-44 in 3 OT's. The Broncos opened at -16.5, largely due to 12-26 ATS mark on the blue turf. Lobos find a way to hang around.
DAVE PRICE
Indians -1½ +105
Not only have the Cleveland Indians won a ridiculous 21 straight games, they've also gone 18-3 against the run line during this streak. And now we're getting plus money on the run line with them Thursday. Josh Tomlin hasn't lost a game since June 25. He has gone 5-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his past 6 starts. Tomlin is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 3 games against the Royals this year. Jake Junis sports a 5.56 ERA in 6 road starts for the Royals.
MARK FRANCO
New Mexico vs. Boise State
Play: New Mexico +15½
The Boise State Broncos are ranked 85 on offense, averaging 381.0 yards per game. The Broncos are averaging 157.5 yards rushing and 223.5 yards passing so far this season.
The New Mexico Lobos are ranked 42 on offense, averaging 455.5 yards per game. The Lobos are averaging 217.5 yards rushing and 238.0 yards passing so far this season.
Since coach Bob Davie’s has been at New Mexico he is 4-1 vs. the spread vs. Boise State and I like taking the big number here.
FRANK SAWYER
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Mariners +103
Take the Seattle Mariners with the money-line versus the Texas Rangers listing both starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Andrew Cashner. Seattle (73-73) won the third game of this series last night by an 8-1 score. The Mariners have then won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Seattle has also won 11 of their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record. Texas (72-73) has now lost 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 14 games against right-handed starting pitchers, the Rangers have lost 10 of these games. Take Seattle with the money-line listing both starting pitchers.