Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, September 15th, 2016

Marc Lawrence

Jets / Bills Under 41

Edges - Jets: 0-3 UNDER last three games in this series; and 3-5 UNDER away games with Bowles. Bills: 0-3 UNDER last three division games. With both teams beefing up their defense in the off season, look for this game stay UNDER the total for the 5th time in the last 6 games played here between these two teams tonight. We recommend a 1* on the UNDER total in this game.

Ken Thomson

Cincinnati +8

Greg Ward Jr. is back at practice along with running back Duke Catalon. Both need to be ready to roll as Houston has a short week of prep for the Thursday Night game at Cincinnati. Ward Jr. is key for the Cougs run to a possible play-off spot. The injury is on the throwing shoulder but according to the medical staff it looks like the shoulder is healed up pretty good. Ward Jr. said he doesn't feel there will be any limitations and that he will be at full strength. That's what he says. I have some people in Houston who think otherwise and Cincinnati will try and pressure him and find out early if he can indeed make all the throws. He may be using his legs more to run the ball but he must be careful about falling on that shoulder when tackled as that will surely aggravate the situation. Cincy does not have a great defense but they are opportunistic as they have seven interceptions in their first wins vs. FCS foe Tennessee Martin & Purdue. The game in West Lafayette saw the Bearcats give up over 400 passing yards to David Blough but they were able to get 5 picks and that was the difference of a win and a cover. Tommy Tuberville has a decent QB in Hayden Moore and there is adequate speed at the skill positions which should help Cincy stay in the game at home. At Sportsbook AG & Stations Casinos here in Vegas the number is 8 and I expect it may go up everywhere else and even may go higher on game day....I'll take a shot that the shoulder could hinder a usual Ward Jr. like dominant performance and take the 8 points. If Ward Jr. ends up being 100%.

Vernon Croy

Houston -8 over Cincinnati

This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems, and the Cougars are the superior overall team here on the road. The Cougars are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing a team with a winning record at home, and they are 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games overall. The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game, and the Cougars are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after putting up more than 39 points in their previous game. The Cougars defense is very good, and their offense is very capable at picking apart this Bearcats defense.

Jim Feist

Cardinals at Giants
Pick: Under

This is a good park for pitchers and St. Louis has been on a 5-0 run under the total this week with fine pitching and defense. Adam Wainwright has thrown three straight strong starts allowing 16 hits and 6 runs in 20 innings. Wainwright (11-8 ) was the winning pitcher in Saturday's 5-1 victory over the Brewers, tossing eight innings of one run ball, surrendering six hits and four walks while striking out seven. San Francisco is home on an 8-3 run under the total, 5-2-1 under at home. Johnny Cueto (15-5, 2.90 ERA) held the D-Backs to two runs on three hits and two walks and struck out six over seven innings in Saturday's win on the road at Chase Field.

Jim Feist

Cardinals at Giants
Pick: Under

This is a good park for pitchers and St. Louis has been on a 5-0 run under the total this week with fine pitching and defense. Adam Wainwright has thrown three straight strong starts allowing 16 hits and 6 runs in 20 innings. Wainwright (11-8 ) was the winning pitcher in Saturday's 5-1 victory over the Brewers, tossing eight innings of one run ball, surrendering six hits and four walks while striking out seven. San Francisco is home on an 8-3 run under the total, 5-2-1 under at home. Johnny Cueto (15-5, 2.90 ERA) held the D-Backs to two runs on three hits and two walks and struck out six over seven innings in Saturday's win on the road at Chase Field.

Sleepyj

Baltimore -134

Gallardo gets the go for Baltimore and he has stepped up his game the last two efforts...I'm not very high on him, but he gets a second look at the Rays in less then a week....He had a pretty good game last time out Vs. Tampa....He went 5 full and he gave up 5 hits and only 1ER....He should feel good that coming into this one with confidence...He also comes off a win which has been a big struggle for Gallardo...Big reason I'm backing the O's is because I'm very low on Snell for Tampa...He doesn't last long and he ends up in some bad jams at times...Walks can be an issue and his strikeouts are rather low for the amount of pitches he throws..He struggles to find the zone and that will hurt him against a deep team like Baltimore...O's haven't had a chance to see Snell yet, but I'm not to worried with his recent form and starting on the road...Baltimore needs to stay on course here as the AL WC is razor thin...Baltimore at home gets the call...I won't be shocked if this goes to near -150..

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -129

The Orioles are 6-0 at home vs the Rays and 14-5 as a home favorite in this range. Tampa is 5-15 when the total is 9 to 9.5. They have B. Snell going and they are 1-6 in his road starts. Gallardo for Baltimore is 5-1 vs Tampa Bay. Home teams since 2004 are 10-1 and win by over 3 runs per game off a road dog win scoring 2 or less runs, vs an opponent also off a road dog win but scored 5+ runs. Play on Baltimore.

Jimmy Boyd

Yankees/Red Sox Under 8½

The Red Sox were held scoreless in Wednesday's 1-0 loss to the Orioles. That's now 2 straight games where the Red Sox offense has failed to produce. The Yankees were also shutout yesterday and have now scored a total of just 7 runs in their last 4 games.

I look for both offense to continue their struggles at the plate on Thursday. New York will send out their ace in Masahiro Tanaka, who is quietly having a really good season. Tanaka is 13-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 29 starts. He's been even better on the road than at home, posting a 2.27 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in 14 road starts. He's already faced New York twice this season and both times he dominated. In the two starts combined, he allowing 3 runs on 9 hits with 12 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings.

Boston counters here with Eduardo Rodriguez, who comes into this one working on two really good starts. Rodriguez went 8 scoreless at Oakland on 9/4 and followed it up by allowing just 2 earned runs in 6 innings at Toronto in his last outing. Most importantly, he's owed the Yankees, going 4-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 6 career starts against them. He's faced them twice this season and both teams allowed just 1 run in 7 innings (only 7 hits). Rodriguez has a way of saving his best for division opponents, which is why the UNDER is 11-3 in his last 14 starts against the AL East.

Brandon Lee

Twins +142

I cashed in big on the Tigers Wednesday, but I'm going to fade them in Thursday's series finale. Not only do I like the price we are catching with Minnesota as a big dog, but I actually give the Twins the edge on the mound in this one. Minnesota will send out lefty Hector Santiago, who has been lights out of late. Santiago has a 1.86 ERA and 1.190 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He also owns a respectable 3.42 ERA in 8 career starts against the Tigers. Detroit counters with Mike Pelfrey, who has a miserable 7.07 ERA and 1.832 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Pelfrey has also had his troubles against the Twins, as he has a 5.28 ERA in 3 career starts against them, two of those coming this season.

Mike Lundin

Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -132

The Baltimore Orioles come into this four-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays after taking two of three in Boston to pull within one game of the Red Sox at top of the American League East. They can not afford to slow down though, and I think they'll do enough to pick up a win against the Rays tonight.

Yovani Gallardo (5-7, 5.44) takes the ball for Baltimore. He's pitched well lately and has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine outings. Gallardo is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA in six career starts against the Rays and held them to a pair of runs in five innings of an 11-2 win at Tampa Bay his last time out.

Left-hander Blake Snell (5-8, 3.62 ERA) takes the ball for Tampa Bay. He lasted just 2 2/3 innings in a loss to the Yankees his last time out, but managed to give up three runs and made 88 pitches during that short outing. Snell has failed to complete six frames in seven of his last eight outings, and that does not bode well for the Rays who's bullpen has been pretty active in recent games. We can also note that the Orioles are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Orioles are 8-1 in Gallardo's last nine starts vs. a team with a losing record. They took two of three at the Trop Sept 5-7, and this looks like a great price on a team which is a fantastic 45-25 home at Camden Yards on the season.

Jimmy Moore

New York Jets -1

Revenge is usually a better motivator in college than in pro but this game is an exception. The Jets lost both games to the Bills last season and the 2nd one was a killer since it happened in week 17 and kept the Jets out of the playoffs. Look for a super motivated Jets team here especially off of their tough 1 point loss on Sunday missing an extra point and a short field goal.

Larry Ness

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia

The 65-81 Philadelphia Phillies’ fielded a lineup on Wednesday in which the oldest player was 27. It looks as if the Phillies will continue to let some new players get comfortable in the big leagues, including when they close out a series with Pittsburgh on Thursday night. Philly won 6-2 last night, as the Pirates lost for the 13th time in their last 16 games. Pittsburgh was right in the thick of the wild card race along with San Francisco, St Louis and the New York Mets at 67-61 back on August 28 but its current slump leaves the Pirates six games behind the Mets for the second NL wild card spot.

Pittsburgh still has seven contests left on the 11-game trip after Thursday's finale with Philadelphia, as it must then face the NL’s two-best teams in Washington and the Chicago Cubs. Chad Kuhl (3-3, 4.09 ERA) gets the start for Pittsburgh but after a strong start, Kuhl has cooled off (pardon the pun). The Pirates won Kuhl’s first six career starts but have now lost three of his last four outings, with Kuhl posting a 4.66 ERA. Kuhl’s most recent outing saw him surrender three runs on four hits and three walks in just two innings against the Cardinals in a 12-6 loss on September 5.

Jerad Eickhoff is pitching well down the stretch and turned in one of his best performances at Washington on Saturday, when he scattered five hits over six scoreless innings without factoring in the decision. The 26-year-old rookie has turned in a quality start in each of his last four outings and going back further, has seen the Phillies win five of his last seven starting assignments. Pittsburgh skipped Kuhl’s last turn in the rotation after his short stint against the Cards and my bet says the Pirates will wish they had skipped this turn here, as well.

James Manos

Houston at Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati

Sneaky tough game for the visiting Cougars here. UH is no longer "flying under the radar" as their bowl win vs Florida St. last year and opening week upset of Oklahoma have garnered them national attention. That simply assures that every opponent will give the Cougars their best shot and Cincinnati will be no exception. UH HC Herman won't enjoy his usual coaching advantage in this one as Bearcats HC Tuberville is experienced and talented. Cougars QB Ward missed LW with an injury to his throwing shoulder, and although he's cleared to play here, may be less than 100% and Herman may want to expose him to less contact. The Bearcats played a similarly talented Cougar team to the wire last season, outgaining them and losing by just 3 in Houston. Both teams return quality QB's but lost a lot of other talent on offense, Cincy it's entire WR corp and UH all it's RB. I think this will be a closely contested game and if Bearcat QB Moore can avoid TO's the outright upset would not surprise. Grabbing this line at it's peak.

Scott Spreitzer

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -110

The Phillies are doomed to a fourth-place finish but one bright spot remains in Jerad Eickhoff, who has pitched much better than his 10-13 record indicates and comes off four quality starts, including six shutout innings at Washington on Saturday. Eickhoff has allowed seven runs his last 24 innings and just one home run. Chad Kuhl has lost his last two starts and he didn't make it past two innings against St. Louis on Sept. 5 when he gave up three earned runs and four hits and three walks in a 12-6 Pittsburgh loss. The Pirates have lost 13 of their last 16 games and 12 of their last 15 against right-handed starters. The Phillies have won five of Eickhoff's last seven starts.