Carmine Bianco
Roma at Viktoria Plzen
Play: Roma -0.5 -104
Both sides get into the EL after failed qualifying rounds in the final stages of Champions League. Roma's was particularly a disappointment as the Italian side suffered a meltdown on home soil in leg 2 leaving them relegated to the EL competition. The line up they've put out for today will likely give Plzen trouble on the flanks and they should be able to control midfield and generate some good opportunities on goal. I'll lean with the better side here and take Roma.
Vegas Butcher
New York Yankees +100 1st Half
Betances and Clippard have pitched in two straight games so let’s take the BP’s out of the equation here. Tanaka is my 25th ranked starter who is pitching at a top-10 level over the last 30-days. His 2.9 e-ERA over this span is 2 runs lower than Rodriguez’ 4.8 e-ERA mark, which consequently matches his year-long number. This is my 157th ranked starter. The key for Tanaka is that his best pitch is a splitter, the only pitch that Boston’s offense struggles against (they’re bottom-10 against it). I’ll back the Yankees for the first 5 here, and hopefully Tanaka is ‘on’ his game once again.
Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play winner will be the Yankees with their red-hot hurler Masahiro Tanaka to open a must-win 4 game series with the win tonight at Fenway Park against the Red Sox and Rodriguez.
When last these teams met in Beantown, New York won the last pair of the three game set, as the Yankees have won 3 of the last 4 series meetings entering action tonight.
Tanaka has been in beast-mode, as he takes the hill this evening on a 6-0 roll his last 7 trips to the bump. Against Boston this season Tanaka is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his pair of starts, and is 5-2 in 9 career starts against the Red Sox.
Eduardo Rodriguez counters for Boston, and he has had New York's number going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in a pair of starts this season. For his career, Rodriguez stands at 4-1 with a 1.88 over his 6 starts.
It will be tight, and low-scoring, but this one goes to the Yankees in a thriller.
2* N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Orioles over the Rays.
Baltimore heads back home after taking 2 of 3 in Detroit, and 2 of 3 in Boston, as the O's remain right in the thick of things in both the A.L. East Division race, and the Wild Card race.
Look for them to take care of would-be spoiler Tampa Bay, a team they have won 9 of the last 11, and 11 of the 15 games played overall in the season series.
The Orioles are also a righteous 45-25 in their home ball park at Camden Yards.
Both Blake Snell and Yovani Gallardo are on 1-2 skids their last 3 starts, and both sport bloated ERA's, so don't expect the starters to decide the outcome of this one.
Because there is so much on the line for the Orioles, I will take a chance and lay the home wood over a Rays team they have owned.
Play is on Baltimore.
5* BALTIMORE
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +109 over BOSTON
Yankees/Red Sox in late September with something on the line means big crowds and plenty of excitement but anytime we can take back a tag with Masahiro Tanaka you can pencil us in almost every time. Not many have been as successful pitching with a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament as Tanaka has been since he was diagnosed in July of 2014, this perhaps due to his vast arsenal of pitches. Tanaka has filthy stuff and he catches the Red Sox after they scored just three times combined at home against Baltimore over the past two nights. Timing can sometimes be everything. Tanaka has a BB/K split of 4/32 over his past 33 innings. His swing and miss rate in his last two starts was an off-the-charts 20%. When he’s not striking out batters, he’s inducing groundballs with an elite rate of 52%. Tanaka is the straight goods but he’s not priced like it here, which makes us instant buyers against Eduardo Rodriguez.
Former top prospect Eduardo Rodriguez finished the 2015 season with a bang, throwing four consecutive dominant starts with a 2.22 ERA in September. But a dislocated kneecap kept him on the shelf until late May and then he was quickly demoted to the minors after posting an 8.59 ERA in six starts. He did well in the minors before being recalled but he’s not thriving at this level just yet. Over his last 23 innings, Rodriguez has walked 10 batters while striking out 18. His xERA of 4.70 since his recall is much more revealing than his 2.70 surface ERA over that same span. Rodriguez’s 33%/22%/45% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that relies on a lot of good fortune for success. Armed with a mid-90s heater and a highly-regarded change-up, Rodriguez employs two plus pitches. However, not many starters can survive the rotation with just two reliable pitches and that’s where Rodriguez is now. Until he develops a strong third pitch that he can rely on, he’s a big risk spotting prices and he certainly does not warrant being favored over one of the best starters in the game.
SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO -104 over N.Y. Jets
The Bills opened up as a 3-point favorite, which appeared to be a bad number, as the sharps stepped in and hammered it early. Money hasn’t stopped coming in on the Jets and we can understand why. The Jets are healthy and they looked much better against the Bengals than the Bills looked against the Ravens. The Jets opponent last week was also much tougher than Buffalo’s opponent. We also expect that the Jets will be hammered all day by this anxious market. You would be hard pressed to find one media source or person that is siding with the host tonight. That should be a huge warning flag to everyone. We also know that putting too much emphasis on one game is a costly mistake that many will fall trap to in Week 2 so let’s not get carried away here.
Truth be told, Ryan Fitzpatrick is an extremely flawed quarterback and no one knows that better than Rex Ryan. In two games against Ryan's Bills last season, Fitzpatrick averaged 187 yards per game with four passing TDs and five interceptions. In his 17 games as a starter for the Jets, Fitzpatrick has gone over 210 yards a mere six times so do you really want to back his team on the road in a short week against a team that knows him so well? We don’t. It’s not easy to bet against what your eyes are telling you. We all watched the Jets compete hard last week and nearly knock off one of the powers while the Bills could not move five yards against the Ravens. Lost in those results was that New York was torched through the air to the tune of 336 yards while the Ravens only mustered 225 yards through the air on the Bills defense and only 83 yards on 28 carries on the ground. Buffalo figures to be much better this week while the Jets do not, as they played their hearts out in a home loss last week. We’re not as optimistic as others about the Jets chances to come in here and defeat a team that has dominated this series recently. Rex Ryan’s main focus is to defeat the Jets and he’s been able to do so with outstanding efforts against them. Expect nothing less here.
Pass NCAAF
Harry Bondi
BUFFALO (pick’em) over NY Jets
Simple case of taking the team with the much better defense, playing at home with a pointspread in which all they have to do is win the game. Bills have also dominated the series in recent history, winning four straight games, including outscoring the Jets 60-20 in the last two meetings on this field. And while we aren’t huge fans of Rex Ryan, he does hold the huge experience advantage here over counterpart Todd Bowles in knowing how to properly prepare his team to play on these brutal short weeks for Thursday night football. Bills win!
David Banks
Houston @ Cincinnati
Pick: Under 64.5
Will he or won’t he is the question for both Houston head coach Tom Herman and Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville. The “he” is Cougars quarterback Greg Ward Jr. who suffered a minor shoulder injury in Houston’s season-opening victory over Oklahoma. Ward did not play last week as Houston beat up on FCS opponent Lamar, 42-0. The Cougars quarterback, one of just two players to rush for over 1,000 yards and throw for more than 2,000 last season, has practiced and, for all intents and purposes, appears that he will start on Thursday night.
Tuberville and the Bearcats have faced Ward in each of the last three seasons. Last year, the Cougars beat Cincinnati 33-30 on its way to capturing the American Athletic Conference title. The previous two seasons though, it was the Bearcats that got the best of Houston. Tuberville is hoping that his squad is up to the task.
Cincinnati beat Purdue last Saturday, its first win over a Big Ten opponent on the road in 59 years. The Bearcats will have a slight advantage playing at home in Nippert Stadium. Tuberville’s offense will rely on sophomore quarterback Hayden Moore, who has thrown for 510 yards and five touchdowns in two games. The running game is solid too, with Tion Green (150 yards) and Mike Boone (113) leading the charge.
The Cougars, the first Top 10 team to visit Cincinnati since West Virginia back in 2007, are well-balanced on offense averaging 225 yards passing and 235 on the ground. What makes Houston a College Football Playoff contender is its defense, likely the best in the AAC. Cincinnati is another step in the Cougars quest to qualify for the CFP as a Group of Five representative. Any loss along the way will eliminate Herman’s squad from contention.
Bob Balfe
Cardinals +120
As we head down the stretch for wild card positioning I am always going to favor Adam Wainwright in this spot over Cueto. Wainwright has experience in playoff conditions and I like his against a Giants team that has faded a bit this week. The Cardinals need to take advantage tonight.
Andy Iskoe
Jets +1
Both teams are off of competitive losses to open the season with the Bills suffering a 13-7 loss at Baltimore and the Jets losing at home 23-22 to Cincinnati in a game that was back and forth throughout. The Jets should have extra motivation for this game after losing at Buffalo in the final game of last season when a win would have earned the Jets a Wild Card. Motivation more often is reflected in the additional preparation that takes place and the Jets lost twice to the Bills and former coach Rex Ryan twice last season. Oddly, both losses were by the same identically odd score of 22-17. The Jets have the better overall roster, are healthier and are better balanced and more dynamic on offernse. Their defensive line gets stronger with the return of Sheldon Richardson and the defense had 7 sacks of Cincy QB Andy Dalton last week. Buffalo had perhaps the poorest offensive showing of any team in week one against a decent Baltimore defense but one not considered considered as strong as the Jets' defense.
OC Dooley
Yankees / Red Sox Over 8
Considering that Boston has the top statistical offense in the American League it is rare to get market-value but this particular total has DROPPED from the opening offshore figure of "nine" runs due to the starting pitchers. New York's Masahiro Tanaka is on a blistering tear (1.94 ERA in the past seven trips to the mound) while Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has owned the Yankees (1.88 ERA in six career attempts). Since the Yankees are slated to face LEFTIES "seven" times in the next 11 games they acquired veteran Designated Hitter Billy Butler who instantly has been put in tonight's lineup. Butler against southpaws has an excellent .872 career OPS figure. Last night in an ESPN telecast Boston won a 1-0 affair at home against a high scoring opponent (Baltimore) while the Yankees had to deal with the best pitcher in the modern game (Clayton Kershaw) which as stated above has given us "value" to the spot for which I am taking advantage
GoodFella
Bills TT Under 20
This Buffalo Bills offense was extremely anemic in their opener last week vs the Ravens. While I do expect them to improve some tonight at HOME, I just do not see them exceeding 20 points in this spot. First off, they're on a short week & these Thursday Night NFL games have proven to be low scoring duds more often than not. They also face a very strong defensive front vs these Jets. The Jets harassed Andy Dalton and the Bengals last week. They sacked Dalton 7 times and I do see them disrupting the Buffalo offensive line and a much lesser QB in Taylor. I really do see this game being played out as a field position battle and played rather conservatively. This will be a defensive battle IMO and I really see this poor Buffalo offense struggling in this spot & relying heavily on a strong defensive effort at HOME. I'm on the BUFFALO Team Total going UNDER in this spot on Thursday evening.