Free Picks for Thursday, September 21st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Marc Lawrence
49ers vs. Rams
Play: Under 41
Edges - 49ers: 2-9 UNDER last 11 division home games; and 4-10 UNDER last 14 home games in this series, including 0-4 UNDER the last four… Rams 2-8 UNDER last 10 overall division games… With the Rams having played UNDER the total in 11 of their last 14 overall away games, we recommend a 1* play in the UNDER total in this game. T
Mike Lundin
Rockies vs. Padres
Play: Rockies -124
The Colorado Rockies took two of three against the Padres over the weekend, but they've opened this week with back-to-back losses to the Giants. I like the Rockies to bounce back with a win here as they fight to hold on the second National League wild-card spot with the Brewers right on their heels.
Tonight Tyler Anderson (5-5, 5.28 ERA) will take the ball for Colorado. The 27 year old left-hander held the Padres scoreless and just two hits through six innings of a 16-0 victory last week. He's 2-0 in 10 innings of scoreless ball since returning from the disabled list Sept. 10.
The Padres turn to Clayton Richard (7-14, 4.82 ERA) who was charged with four runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings against the Rockies last week. He's 1-2 with a 9.98 ERA in three starts against Colorado this year.
The Rockies are 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
Jim Feist
Colorado at San Diego
Pick: Over 8.5
Colorado has a powerhouse offense and is the Over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. San Diego starter Clayton Richard (7-14, 4.82 ERA) has allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of 11 starts. And the Over is 4-1 in Richard's last 5 starts vs. the Rockies.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO +120 over L.A. Rams
The Rams scored 12 points in about two minutes in Week 1 and went on to record a resonating 46-9 victory in that game while the 49ers are 0-2 with 12 points scored in two games. This market loves offense and the market perception here is that the 49ers have none. We shall see about that but what we do know is that the Los Angeles Rams have played two home games against two weak opponents and cannot be road chalk because of one big offensive output against the bumbling Colts. Jared Goff had all day to throw against Indy but things were different for him last week and they’ll be different for him here. Goff only managed 224 yards versus the Redskins last week in a loss and tossed just one touchdown. The 49ers D-line put great pressure on both Russell Wilson and Cam Newton and take a step down in class here against Jared Goff. Also, take note that the Rams defensive line was blown off the ball last week against an average Washington offensive line.
The Rams will now go on the road with their rookie QB for the first time this season with only three full days to prepare. Forget X’s and O’s for a sec and just consider how difficult it is to not only win on the road in this league but to do so being a weak team on short preparation. Wins and losses are the bottom line in any sport and in that regard, an 0-2 49ers’ squad that won two lousy games last year and five lousy games in 2015 is very difficult for this market to get behind. The Rams have a blowout victory already, which holds much more weight in this market than SF’s two losses in two games. That provides us with this opportunity.
While the Rams were facing Indianapolis and Washington, the 49ers had to deal with Seattle and Carolina’s defenses so it should come as no surprise that points for their offense were at a premium. After facing those two great defenses, a battle tested Brian Hoyer figures to be a lot more comfortable this week and chances are he’ll get a lot more time to make some plays. Brian Hoyer hasn't thrown a touchdown yet and the 49ers as a team still haven't found the end zone. Hoyer comes off a 99-yard effort in Seattle that was predictable facing a great defense in their stadium but Hoyer opened with 193 yards at home versus the Panthers. The Rams also have a weapon of their own this week that can match Todd Gurley and might be the best offensive weapon in this game. Carlos Hyde is healthy and comes off a 124-yard effort over the Seahawks on only 15 carries. He's adding a few receptions each week and could very easily go off for a monster game here.
With losses piling up over the past three seasons and two more in two games this year, the books have Kyle Shanahan’s squad as home dogs here but Shanahan’s freewheeling, keep-it-real manner is very good medicine. The 49ers are strong on both lines and claim to have had good weeks of practice and a good camp before their opener. They did not look overwhelmed in two difficult games and the message here is more about belief in each other than a canon of maxims. The Rams favored on the road is incorrect. 49ers outright get this call.
SPORTS WAGERS
Temple +19½ over USF
The Bulls are a popular favorite to win The American Athletic Conference in 2017. In addition, some pundits have been bold enough to pencil the Bulls into a New Year's Six Bowl Appearance as the Group of Five Champion Qualifier. These superlatives create a glorified public perception of this program. Don’t get us wrong, as the Bulls are indeed a quality team (offensively) but once again we’re after inflated points and trust we’re getting some here.
The Bulls enter at 3-0, which also has market influence. There is no question that USF has some exceptional talent in its ranks, most notably perhaps one of the game's best players overall in quarterback Quinton Flowers. So far, Flowers has been nothing short of spectacular in his first three outings in 2017. The question mark surrounding this team has never been its offensive proficiencies but rather its defensive proficiencies. Temple utilized this very angle to defeat the Bulls in Philadelphia in 2016 when the Owls hung 46 points on USF en route to a 16-point victory. Just like this year, USF was considered the best team in the American Athletic Conference in 2016 but Temple took the conference hardware. We have yet to see USF in a true high-profile game this year, unless you consider USF steamrolling an Illinois team that beat up on an atypical Western Kentucky as such a feat.
Meanwhile, Temple was televised getting beat down by the Fighting Irish on opening weekend and that has left a lasting impression. Furthermore, despite an impressive 47-23 victory in which USF put up video-game like numbers in total yardage against Illinois when they eclipsed the 680 mark, there are some other statistics worth focusing on. First, the Oskie-Wow-Wows were able to generate 354 yards. This further reinforces that USF is once again living and dying by its offensive exploits. Additionally, Illinois committed three turnovers which is a big no-no against a team of South Florida’s potency. The Illini were penalized 15 times for 138 yards but it is USF that is one of the most penalized teams in America. In this contest, the Bulls were penalized 16 times for 140 yards. On the year, the Bulls average 13 penalties per game. In most outings, such a lack of discipline could be catastrophic. However, Illinois miscues and mistakes fed perfectly into South Florida’s hands.
Temple will not be so inclined to grant such clemency. Though the Owls have looked far weaker compared to its 2016 edition, Temple has only been penalized 6.5 times per game. Furthermore, Temple has only committed one turnover all year and that includes the aforementioned trip to South Bend. Temple also has the blueprint to beat or compete against this familiar team. The revenge angle is one that some will employ in this contest but such a philosophy is often a perilous proposition. In its first high-profile game of the season against Notre Dame, Temple was whacked but followed that up with consecutive victories over Villanova and UMass. Those two victories obviously hold no weight in this market but it did give the Owls an opportunity to clean up some things and also served as a confidence builder coming into this one. Getting whacked again is not a trait of this program. In fact, since 2014, Temple has just one loss by more than the points being offered here. This is a program built to compete.
We are not suggesting that Temple will pull off an upset. However, the Owls can certainly hang around and come in under this number. After all, USF had trouble putting away Stony Brook in Tampa as a 35-point home choice. The final score was 31-17 but USF didn’t pull away until the last two minutes. Very simply, this is a team that cannot be trusted spotting this kind of lumber to Temple and as the #21 ranked team in the country, the premium to back them is too steep.
Pass MLB
Pat Hawkins
Los Angeles at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco +3
The Rams are favored for the third consecutive time this season. However, the Rams have been Historically horrible in road openers going 3-12 ATS. The Rams are still living off their opening day victory over a bad Colts team. Even though neither team has much of home field advantage, I expect the 49ers offense begin to open up as they finally face a defense they can throw the ball down field against. Expect a higher scoring game, so if you play teasers take the 49ers + the points and over 33 for your teaser.
Rob Vinciletti
Twins vs. Tigers
Play: Twins
The Twins are still in the hunt and need to win. Detroit is playing out the string here and has lost 16 of 20 this month. The Tigers are a dismal 1-14 as a home dog off a home dog loss scoring 4 or less runs and 0-8 of late vs winning teams. Meji for Minny has a solid 2.54 era on the road. Zimmerman for Detroit has a 6.66 home era and a 6.89 era vs the Twins. Now to tie in a power system we note. Road favorites off a road loss by 5 or more runs are 5-0 since 2004 vs an opponent off a 1 run home dog loss. Make it Minnesota tonight.
Tommy Brunson
Hate to be Captain Obvious here, but since the 49ers have yet to score a touchdown through their first 2 games, I don't think you can expect a whole slew of points in Santa Clara this Thursday night when San Francisco plays host to the Los Angeles Rams.
Last year's meeting at Levi's Stadium between the clubs did stay Under, as have the last 4 games played between the teams on San Francisco's home field. In fact, 5 of the last 7 meetings overall between the teams in this NFC West Division rivalry have held Low.
Both Rams games this season have landed Over, but both 49ers games this season have seen the Under cash. Which way do you go? Well, have to back the series trends that say to look for a lower-scoring game here on Thursday night, as the short week should benefit the defenses much the way it did last Thursday when the Texans and the Bengals held Under the posted price.
Rams-49ers Under we go.
4* L.A. RAMS-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER
Joey Juice
Live from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, the USF Bulls get ready to rumble with the Temple Owls who come off a 29-21 home win over UMass. USF won 47-23 at home over Illinois. When these two teams squared off last year it was Temple rolling to a 46-30 win.
When we look inside the numbers we see that Temple is on a slide lately, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Meanwhile, South Florida has proven that they can beat teams with winning records, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning record.
South Florida has also proven that they can win at home, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. They also play very well in September, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 September games.
No secrets here I expect USF to crush Temple, whose defense is simply dreadful, and will have to face one of the toughest offensive teams in the country.
South Florida is lead led by QB Quinton Flowers who I am expecting to have a monumental game in the air and on the ground.
Go with USF.
4* SOUTH FLORIDA
BRANDON LEE
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8½
It's going to feel like a playoffs for this 4-game series between the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers are 3.5 back with 11 to play and also can't afford to lose if they want to keep pace with the Rockies for the Wild Card spot. Chicago knows this is their chance to secure the division title and secure a spot in the postseason. Both teams are going to pull out all the stops to secure the win and I'm expecting a low-scoring game in the opener with Jake Arrieta facing off against Zach Davies. Arrieta has a 2.79 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Brewers, allowing just 3 earned runs in 13 innings against them this season. Davies has been sharp against Chicago each of the last 3 times he's faced them this season, allowing just 6 runs over 20 innings (3 or less each start).
DOUG UPSTONE
Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Nationals -135
Since winning four in a row, the Atlanta offense has all but disappeared in averaging 2.3 RRG in their last six outings. Last night they were whipped 7-3 by Washington and that could happen again as underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Braves, batting .190 or worse over their last three contests, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs are 11-45 since 2013.
ART ARONSON
Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Over 8½
Based primarily on the struggles of Reds’ starter Homer Bailey (5-8, 6.86 ERA.) Bailey comes in off a strong outing against the Pirates on Friday, but performances like those have been few and far between. Besides, the veteran has an atrocious 1-5, 7.78 ERA record at home. Cards’ starter Carlos Martinez has obviously been much more consistent than Bailey this year, but he’s already struggled against the Reds twice this season and he was most recently demolished for seven runs by the Cubs in his last trip to the mound.
JIMMY BOYD
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Angels +118
I really like the value here with the Angels as a home dog against the Indians on Thursday. LA is right in the thick of things for the final AL Wild Card spot, as they are just 1.5-games back of the Twins. More than anything, I like the pitching matchup for the Angels in this one.
Los Angeles will send out Parker Bridwell, who has been one of their big surprises of 2017. He's 8-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 17 starts and will have the advantage here of this being the first time a lot of these Indians hitters will have seen him. Cleveland counters with Danny Salazar, who is making his first start since Sept. 5th and he's really struggled of late when he's got a chance, posting a ugly 8.02 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's also got a poor 5.57 ERA in 11 road starts on the season.
Bridwell has thrived as a dog on the mound, as the Angels have gone 9-1 when he's been listed as an underdog on the money line. LA is also a perfect 7-0 in Bridwell's 7 starts during day games and 8-2 in his last 10 outings after a loss.
TEDDY DAVIS
Minnesota at Detroit
Play: Minnesota
I trust the Twins to bounce back here against a division rival after getting swept by the Yankees. They are still 1.5 ahead of the Angels right now and can't afford many more losses. Mejia takes the mound for the Twins here who has had his best stuff on the road this year with a 2.54 ERA in 6 starts.
Zimmermann has flat out been awful for the Tigers with a 6.16 ERA on the season. He comes into this game in terrible form as well with a 9.00 ERA his last 3 starts. The Tigers have clearly thrown in the towel for the season.