JACK JONES
Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Rangers +130
The Texas Rangers have quietly stayed alive in the wild card race. Both the Angels and Twins have struggled of late, so the Rangers are now just 2.5 games out of the wild card with 11 games remaining. The Rangers have won three straight coming in, and they are up against a Seattle Mariners team that has packed it in with five straight losses to fall out of contention.
James Paxton has had good season-long numbers, but he has fought injuries and will be making just his second start since August 10th. Paxton wasn't sharp in his return from the DL, giving up 3 earned runs and 6 base runners in 1 1/3 innings of a 2-5 loss to Houston. Paxton is 2-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in nine career starts against Texas. He gave up 7 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Rangers on June 16th.
Cole Hamels has been a reliable starter for the Rangers this season and has been consistently undervalued. The left-hander is 10-4 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 21 starts this year. Hamels is 17-2 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last two seasons.
The Rangers are 29-7 in Hamels' last 36 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is 47-19 in Hamels' last 66 starts overall. The Rangers are 7-1 in their last eight games vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15.
LARRY WALLACE
St Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St Louis -1½
Martinez this season has a 3.57 ERA. Also, in his career against the Reds he is 3-2. Bailey while pitching at home is 1-5 with a 7.78 ERA. In his career against the Cardinals Bailey is 6-12 with a 5.75 ERA.
JOHN MARTIN
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Angels +109
The Angels will be motivated to avoid the sweep today after losing the first two games of this series to the Cleveland Indians in tough fashion. They cannot afford many more losses here if they want to make the postseason as they are 1.5 games behind the Twins in the wild card. The Angels have the clear edge on the mound with Parker Bridwell, who is 8-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts this year. The Angels are 15-2 in his 17 starts and bettors would be up +16.8 units backing him every start. Danny Salazar is 5-6 with a 4.70 ERA in 17 starts, 4-3 with a 5.57 ERA in 11 road starts, and 1-1 with an 8.02 ERA in his last three starts. He will be making just his 2nd start since August 20th and his first since September 5th, so there could be some rust there.
Larry Ness
Texas at Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The Mariners were feeling pretty about their wild card chances after they took the final three games of a four-game series at Texas, from 9/12-14. However, the Mariners have crumbled ever since, losing their fifth straight game last night, 8-6 to the Rangers. Seattle has twice scored six runs in their five-game slide but in the other three, they've totaled a modest four runs. The Mariners are now four games behind the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot, with just 10 left to play. Meanwhile, the Rangers have followed a five-game skid, with three consecutive wins. Texas has climbed to within 2 1/2 games of Minnesota with 11 games remaining to its season.
Texas goes for a three-game road sweep tonight, when it sends Cole Hamels (10-4, 3.96 ERA) to the mound. Seattle hopes to avoid that sweep and end its five-game slide with James Paxton (12-4, 2.98 ERA) getting the nod. Hamels may be 10-4 but Texas is a more modest 12-9 in his starts, giving him a so-so moneyline mark of plus-$369. He may be 6-3 lifetime against Seattle in 13 starts (teams are 8-5) but one couldn't tell that by his 5.02 career ERA against the Mariners!
Paxton returned from a pectoral strain this past Friday but worked only 1 1/3 innings in a 5-2 loss at Houston. It marked his first loss since June 27. The lefty has been very good in 2017 when healthy, as since a June 16 outing against the Rangers, when he allowed seven runs, he hasn't allowed more than three ERs over any of his last 11 starts (Mariners are 8-3). Paxton lost that June 16 outing 10-4 vs the Rangers, falling to 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA in nine career starts against them (teams are 4-5).
Allowing no more than three ERs over 11 starts is quite a nice run and I haven't been impressed with Hamels in 2017 plus there is his 5.02 career ERA against Seattle to consider.
Harry Bondi
SOUTH FLORIDA (-19.5) over Temple
The Temple Owls had one of the best seasons in school history last year, but this year’s edition is a shadow of that team. Head Coach Matt Rhule bolted to Baylor and the team lost a ton of talent. Don’t be fooled by the 2-1 straight-up record to start this season. Temple has been outgained in all three games and is 0-3 ATS, barely getting by the likes of Villanova and UMass. Now, they have to go on the road to face a revenge-minded South Florida team whose only conference loss came last year at Temple. The Bulls have Hurricane Irma in the rear-view mirror and are finally clicking on all cylinders, averaging 520 yards of offense per game. Lay the lumber!
Dave Price
Chicago at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +118
This is a huge series for the Milwaukee Brewers. They are only one game back in the wild card and actually still have a shot to chase down the Cubs in the NL Central at 3.5 games back if they can sweep this series. Zach Davies is 17-9 with a 3.99 ERA in 31 starts for the Brewers this season. Davies is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cubs this season. Jake Arrieta will be making his first start back from a hamstring injury that has kept him out since September 4th. Don't expect him to go deep into this ball game. The Cubs are 1-5 in Arrieta's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Milwaukee is 10-3 in its last 13 home games.
Bob Balfe
Rangers +125
James Paxton is having a fine year for the Mariners, but he never pitched this month in a season and maybe that is why his numbers are fading here at the end of the season. Cole Hamels has been doing this for ages so I expect him to be the better pitcher tonight. There is great value with the Rangers in this one.