Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, September 22nd, 2016

Vernon Croy

Georgia Tech (+9.5) over Clemson

This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems, and I love getting this many points with the Yellow Jackets at home Thursday night. Georgia Tech is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a blowout win by more than 20 points, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after a win. The Yellow Jackets have held opponents to just 10.3 PPG this season, which is 7th best in the country, and I look for them to step up against a potent Clemson offense. Clemson has faced only one quality opponent this season and put up just 19 points against them in that win over Auburn. The Tigers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six games played between these two teams, and I do feel Georgia Tech will have no problem making it a close game Thursday night. Play Georgia Tech ATS with confidence.

Marc Lawrence

Texans vs. Patriots
Play: Over 41

Edges - Texans: 4-0 OVER last four Thursday games; and 6-3 OVER last 9 games in this series; Patriots: 6-3 OVER last 9 Thursday games. With New England having flown OVER the total in each of its last 6 games as a home dog, we recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game.

Andre Ramirez

Texans vs. Patriots
Play: Patriots +1½

The Texans have only allowed 2 touchdowns in their last 2 games. The books are giving way to much credit to the road team. The Patriots faced a major challenge against a solid Panthers team, and beat them outright! Coaching is key in winning games. Expect the Patriots to be very run-heavy and rely on short passes against Houston. P

New England is 6-1 all-time vs. the Texans and won in Houston 27-6 in Week 14 last year. The Patriots have won 28 straight games there against AFC foes outside New England’s East Division. The Patroits also haven’t lost a home prime-time game to any AFC team since 2008. But rookie quarterbacks are 0-6 against Houston since Coach Bill O’Brien took over and the Texans have won those games by an average of 14 points. According to my analysis, I have the Patriots winning 17-13.

Jim Feist

Boston at Baltimore
Pick: Over

Camden Yars is a great park for hitters and the top offense in baseball is in town with the Red Sox. Boston is 6-1 over the total against the AL East and the Red Sox are 8-0 over when David Prices is on the mound. Baltimore is a Top 10 offense, as well, and Chris Tillman is on the hill, with a 4.37 ERA at home (it is 3.06 on the road). And the Over is 34-16-3 in umpire Mark Wegner's last 53 games behind home plate.

Rob Vinciletti

Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Rays -120

They Rays will look to bounce back here tonight against a Yankees team that is 0-5 as a road dog after scoring 10 or more runs on the road. In fact. Home favorites that are off a 5+ run home dog loss while scoring 5 or more runs are 14-5 vs an opponent off a road favored win and they have won every time if that road team scored 10 or more. The pitching appears even here with Snell for Tampa and Cessa for New York. However Cessa has a 6.35 era vs the Rays. Look for Tamps to get the win.

Scott Spreitzer

Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -102

Ryan Vogelsong has made several comebacks in his career but it appears he's finally at the end as he has been destroyed his last four starts allowing 22 runs (20 earned), 26 hits with nine walks in only 17 2/3 innings. Pittsburgh pulled out a 9-7 win at Cincinnati his last start, but lost his previous three outings. Vogelsong's September ERA is 10.66. Chase Anderson has pitched better than his 8-11 record indicates and has been solid for five or six innings his last five starts. Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA since the All-Star break and has given up five earned runs with 16 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings against the Pirates this season. Milwaukee will finish fourth in the NL Central, but the Brewers still are over .500 at home. Pittsburgh is close to being mathematically eliminated from postseason action.

Matt Josephs

Rockies vs. Dodgers
Play: Rockies +1½

The Dodgers begin a four game series with the Rockies as they send Brett Anderson to the mound. The southpaw has allowed 11 runs and 14 hits in just four innings of work this season before heading back to the DL. Anderson has a 4.43 ERA in four career outings against the Rockies. Colorado's hitting over .300 in their last eight games and still has one of the best lineups. Who knows how deep the Dodgers starter will go in his first start off the disabled list. Tyler Chatwood is 7-1 with a 1.77 ERA and a WHIP of 1.136 in 11 starts away from Coors Field. One of those wins came in LA back in June when he held them to one run and one hit in eight innings. The Dodgers lineup isn't in the greatest of form hitting around .220 in their last eight games. Yes, Colorado's bullpen isn't great, but I think there's some value with the road team and an inflated price.

Bob Harvey

Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +137

The Red Sox (88-64, 42-32 road) have trimmed their magic number to six to clinch the American League East and can now turn their focus toward earning the best record in the AL. They trail the Texas Rangers by -1.5 and are a half-game behind the Cleveland Indians in the race for homefield advantage. Boston has won seven straight and now leads the second-place Toronto Blue Jays by 5.5 games. Meanwhile, the Orioles (82-70, 47-34 home) are six games back due in part to an offense that has scored five runs in the last three games.

Price (16-8, 3.91 ERA) is looking to continue his dominance of the Birds. The former Vanderbilt star has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his previous six starts and faced Baltimore twice in that span. Price won both starts, surrendering a total of three runs in 14 innings.

Tillman (16-6, 3.72 ERA) will be making his third start since coming off the disabled list. He started at Boston on June 14 and breezed to a win, yielding one run and five hits in seven innings.

Baltimore is 13-3 in Tillman’s past 16 starts vs. the Red Sox while Boston is 8-0 in Price’s last eight starts. The OVER is 11-1 in Price’s last 12 outings.

David Banks

Clemson @ Georgia Tech
Pick: Under 58

With everyone looking ahead to a Clemson-Louisville clash, Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney is making sure his team is focused on 3-0 Georgia Tech. Sure, the Yellow Jackets have wins over Boston College, Mercer, and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers haven’t been world beaters. The nation’s No. 5 team beat Auburn 19-13 and struggled to beat Troy, 30-24. Clemson fans should not forget that in 2014, Heisman Trophy candidate QB Deshaun Watson was injured in a 28-6 Yellow Jackets victory.

That Georgia Tech win two seasons ago was the last regular season loss for the Tigers. For Swinney and Clemson to avoid another, it is going to come down to defense. The Yellow Jackets are well known for their triple option offense and are averaging 397.7 yards per game thus far this season. Clemson’s defense should be up to the task. Even after losing eight starters from last year, the Tigers are eighth in the country in total defense giving up just over 250 yards per game. They allow only 92 yards per game on the ground.

Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson will need to establish the run if the Yellow Jackets are to have any shot at an upset. Quarterback Justin Thomas is the team’s leader rusher so far and averages six yards per carry. Running back Dedrick Mills has four touchdowns and Clinton Lynch is a dynamic threat. Lynch has just nine touches so far this season, but has gained 116 yards.

Clemson’s offense will ride Watson, RB Wayne Gallman (46 carries, 197 yards, 2 TDs), and WR Mike Williams (15 rec., 245 yds.). The offense averages 456 yards per game and will need to break out on Thursday night. The last time Clemson beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta was 2003 and the last time the two teams played when Clemson was ranked No. 5 ended up in a 31-17 Georgia Tech victory.

Chip Chirimbes

Clemson at Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech +10

For No. 3 ranked Clemson this is their ACC opener and they truthfully have not lived up to the hype so far with two subpar performances. The Tigers have won 18 straight regular season contests but have not won at Georgia Tech since 2003 as the Engineers lead the all-time series 51-28-2. Tech opened the season in Ireland with a win over Boston College while last week the Tigers opponent South Carolina State was so physically weak that they cut the quarters short in the second half. Paul Johnson teams get better as the season moves on and 222 yards passing last week will give Clemson to think about.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston -102 over NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots will test their depth at quarterback tonight, as they send out rookie Jacoby Brissett to take snaps. The Pats don't have any options other than to dress the injured Jimmy Garoppolo while wide receiver Julian Edleman will serve in an emergency roll. Brissett is making his first start on a short week and that could be an overwhelming situation for anyone. Before making his start versus the Cardinals, Garopollo had at least spent two seasons as Tom Brady's understudy. We’re not sure that Jacoby Brissett has even met Tom Brady. There is a lot of noise around these Pats heading into this game with some pundits saying, “they cannot be beat at home” and that, “nobody can out-scheme Belichick on a short week.” While it’s hard to argue any of those points, starting a 3rd string QB in Week 3 is a very tough situation for any team to overcome, Patriots included.

Texans’ Coach Bill O'Brien is a branch on the Belichick coaching tree so this is a great spot for him to “one up” his former boss. The stars have aligned just right for that to happen too. Houston has been pretty unimpressive in two wins this season over the Bears and Chiefs but it’s not the defense that has been unimpressive. That defense has completely stymied two vastly different offenses and they’ll be extra motivated to do better against a third stringer. While Belichick prepares better than anyone, let us remind you that the Patriots rookie QB could not do a thing against Miami’s defense. The Fish were a 25-yard TD pass away from sending that game last week into OT. Houston’s defense is a top-3 unit and Brissett has not had enough time to just come in and expect to thrive or even “manage the game”.

The odds makers set this line with the Texans a -2½ point road favorite. The Patriots “next man up” philosophy has been hammered by the talking heads this week and while we rarely discuss injuries, the Patriots quarterback troubles were absolutely factored into the line when it was released. The odds makers are telling us that the Pats could be in tough tonight but that warning has fallen on deaf ears. Not on ours. We love Belichick with a clipboard in his hand as much as the next guy but asking a raw, third string QB to come in and move the chains against one of the best defenses in the NFL. in the spotlight no less, is a little much even for him.

Depending on where you shop, this line is anywhere between Houston being a one-point choice and New England being a one-point choice. We are going to wait to see where it settles before pulling the trigger but we will be playing the visitor and will update this as soon as we do.

SPORTS WAGERS

GEORGIA TECH +10 over Clemson

Once again, it’s all about value. The Tigers were headline grabbers all of last year. They are 3-0 this year and they’re ranked #5 in the country. What we have here is a ranked opponent spotting road points to an unranked host, which has a very low win percentage over the years. Why? It has a low win percentage because when you play the favorite in these situations, you are spotting inflated points every single time and this one is no exception. For one, Clemson does not look anything like they did last year, as they struggled against Auburn with just 19 points scored in a six-point win and they barely escaped Troy in another six-point win. Clemson’s other win was a blowout over South Carolina State, 59-0. To complicate matters even more, the Tigers have a massive game on deck next week against Louisville. Even if the Tigers do win this game, it is not likely going to be by the margin offered here.

The Yellow Jackets 3-0 record is not holding much weight in the marketplace because the victories occurred against Boston College, Mercer and Vanderbilt. However, Tech allowed just 31 points combined in the three games. Tech’s offense is starting to come alive too. They have gotten progressively better each week and it was capped off last week when the Jackets' spread option attack produced 289 rushing yards against a good Vandy defense. Frankly, nobody is sure whether or not the Jackets are legit. Remember, this is a team that went 3-9 a year ago, which included getting blown out by Clemson back in Death Valley by a score of 43-24. Put it all together and we can understand the difficulty of trusting Georgia Tech to come up with something better. However, Tech’s confidence is much higher this year, they’re at home, they have a clear scheduling advantage, they had an outstanding all-around game last week in a “look-ahead” spot and a win here or even competing here gives them instant credibility. Tech has always played some tough football atBobby Dodd Stadium. In fact, the Tigers have had nothing but misery at this venue for years. Forget the game against South Carolina State and the Tigers are 0-2 against the spread and haven't looked anything like a team with which we'd want to lay heavy weight with on the road against an opponent that is coming on and that has clearly put more emphasis on this one than the favorite.

SPORTS WAGERS

MIAMI -1½ +152 over Atlanta

What a great spot for the Marlins, as they catch the red-hot Braves coming off a three-game sweep in New York against the Metropolitans. That series was filled with twists, turns and emotion, which was capped off by an incredible, game saving catch by Atlanta’s Ender Inciarte with two on and two out in the ninth last night. Atlanta now goes from playing to a full house against a contender to playing an also ran in front of a three-quarter empty stadium. It just doesn’t have the same feel and Atlanta may show up in body only here.

Then there’s Josh Collmenter, a 30-year-old career minor-leaguer with the lowest velocity in the majors. In 16 games this season, 15 out of the pen, Collmenter’s fastball tops out at 85 MPH. His average velocity is 84.4 MPH. Collmenter has enjoyed some success in a swingman role in the past but outside of his control, he’s only truly notable for annually outshining his xERA. Collmenter has a history of maneuvering around his modest metrics with one of hit%, strand% or hr/f falling on the lucky side. With his K-rate in free-fall mode and throwing fewer strikes than ever, his skills have been telling us good fortune is getting harder to come by. Collmenter’s groundball rate this year? How about 20%. Josh Collmenter is nothing more than a warm body out there to fill in for the time being until the Braves get more serious. That will come next season at which time you won’t see Josh Collmenter anywhere near a major league ballpark.

By contrast, Jose Urena has a future. The key for Urena is control and that appears to be trending the right way with just seven walks issued in his last 27 innings. Elements of intrigue are a 95+ mph fastball with movement, a good slider and his changeup shows promise. The seeds of something are here and he’s had the time this season to sew the raw materials together. Urena is someone to keep your eye on but for this one game in a very favorable situation, we’ll bet on Atlanta being flat and for Collmenter to be exactly who he is.

SAN DIEGO +136 over San Francisco

After a highly emotional and intense three-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, the Giants will now take their act to Petco Park to face the Padres. For San Diego, this is their playoffs because they can have a say in the Giants playoffs fate. When you wager on a contender against a team that has no shot of making the playoffs, you are paying inflated prices. Win or lose, these wagers are poor ones because they have absolutely no value whatsoever. We get the team with no pressure that brings as much or more intensity than the contender because for the non-contender, they are playing important or impactful games. We’ve seen Oakland, Atlanta, and the Angels do some heavy damage the past couple of weeks and we also saw San Diego sweep these Giants in San Fran in a series that started 10 days ago.

Out of Coors Field and thrust into the starting rotation for the Padres, Christian Friedrich got off to a hot start, compiling a 2.12 ERA over his first six starts but things started to turn for the worst for him in late June and his ERA now sits at 4.78 after 21 starts. Friedrich is getting more first pitch strikes, but continues to issue too many free passes, which keeps getting him into trouble. With a 60% first-pitch strike rate, it appears that he is nibbling. That’s never good but it’s also fixable. Friedrich is doing a pretty nice job of keeping the ball on the ground, which helps him enormously to get out of jams and in keeping the ball in the yard. He also has 21 K’s over his last 23 innings. We’re not going to try and sell anyone on Friedrich, as his skills don't inspire much confidence. He's walking too many batters, an issue that has plagued him throughout his career. Given his dramatic splits, he’s a risk every time he takes the mound but he’s not the one that spotting a significant tag here, which brings us to Jeff Samardzija.

On his best day, Samardzija isn’t even a 50/50 proposition on the road. Here’s a guy that is 29-39 in his career on the road, which includes this year’s 6-5 mark. Samardzija has had some good and bad stretches for years so we really never know what we’re going to get from him. What we do know is that Samardzija hasn't been able to recover 2015's strikeout rate losses. With an ordinary BB/K split of 53/147 in 190 innings, we can't expect anything better than league-average numbers from Samardzija. That doesn’t warrant spotting a big price like this one on the road.

L.A. Angels +152 over HOUSTON

The Astros are within striking distance. Sitting only a game out of a Wild Card spot, the Astronauts return home from a six-game trip that saw them take two of three in Seattle before they swept the A’s. With 12 wins in their last 13 games against the Angels including seven straight at home, Houston has a ton of market appeal here but let someone else pay in the -165 range to back Mike Fiers.

Ricky Nolasco doesn’t have more appeal than Fiers but Nolasco isn’t under any pressure and he’s also not the one spotting a big tag. Nolasco's secondary numbers are much better than his ugly ERA, but that's been true for nearly his entire career. On the surface, Nolasco always looks like a quality mid-rotation starter with a solid strikeout rate, decent control, and a palatable home run rate, but in 11 seasons his ERA has been better than the league average exactly twice: 2008 and 2013.Nolasco’s arrow should ostensibly point up at a certain minor angle, but there isn’t any real change in his value going forward. Nolasco can throw a gem and has done so a few times already this year. Nolasco scattered five hits over six scoreless innings in his last turn to defeat Toronto for his third strong effort over his last four outings, beginning with a four-hit shutout of Cincinnati on Aug. 31. Aside from that, expect the Angels to give it everything they have in an attempt to knock the Astros out of the playoffs.

We cannot overstate enough how inflated this price is on the Astros because they are in it and the Halos are not. A starter like Mike Fiers can NEVER, ever be priced in this range because he’s no better than almost anyone. Fiers has decent control but that’s about all he brings with him. His fastball sits at 90 MPH but it’s flat. Fiers has posted the fourth highest HR/FB rate in baseball over the past four years. When you bet on him, spotting 8/5 or thereabouts, you had better hope that the jack or jacks he gives up will come with nobody on base. Since his good (lucky) start to the season, Fiers has posted a 1.58 WHIP over the past four months, meaning he’s pitching with men on base and usually two almost every inning. Lastly, Fiers has posted a 8.44 ERA in two starts versus the Angels this year and we’re pretty sure that the Angels are sick of losing to this team. Nolasco may indeed get whacked but Fiers’ chances of getting whacked are higher.

Brandon Lee

Red Sox/Orioles Under 8.5

Each of the first 3 games in this series have finished UNDER the total and now we have the best starting pitching matchup of the 4 with David Price facing off against Chris Tillman. Both of these starters are capable of completely shutting down the opposition and both have a history of doing just that. Price has a 2.80 ERA in 24 career starts against the Orioles and Tillman has a 2.74 ERA in 19 career starts against the Red Sox. UNDER is 23-8 in Tillman's last 31 starts after 3 or more consecutive losses and 25-12 in Boston's last 37 road games in the second half of the season.