Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, September 28th, 2017

Vernon Croy

Chicago / Green Bay Over 45.5

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have this game hitting the 50s Thursday night given how these two teams match up against each-other. The Packers have put up the 2nd most passing yards in the NFL this season and the Bears pass-defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL. Both the Bears and Packers are banged up defensively, and the O/U is 5-2 in the last 7 games played between these two teams. The Packers have given up 29 PPG over their last two games and the O/U is 27-11 for the Bears in their last 38 games after a win. The O/U is 13-3 for the Packers in their last 16 games overall and the O/U is 4-1 for the Packers in their last 5 games against a divisional opponent.

Ray Monohan

Houston at Boston
Play: Boston -104

A potential first round preview takes place on Thursday inside Fenway and the home team has value here.

While the Astros are still fighting for the top AL spot, the Red Sox have much more important work to wrap up. They need to clinch the AL East and avoid playing in that 1 game Wild Card Playoff.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the ball for the Red Sox and his recent run is certainly worth noting. He's gone 2-1 in his last 4 starts, allowing only 6 runs in 25.1 innings of work. He's pitching with a lot of confidence right now and Boston has gone 5-1 in his last 6 home starts.

Some trends to note. Red Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games on grass.

Carlo Campanella

Bears vs. Packers
Play: Over 45½

Packers have struggled early this season on offense. That's exactly what happened the last two years as well. Expecting them to improve on Thursday Night Football in front of a national TV audience while hosting a well known division rival, the Bears. NFL Teams that have scored 7 points or less in the 1st Half of back-to-back games have gone 32-9 Over/Under! With the Pack defense allowing plenty of points once again, this game flys over 45.5 points.

Brandon Shively

Texas vs. Iowa State
Pick: Over 63.5

The Big 12 takes center stage on Thursday night and we should see plenty of fireworks in this one.

Both offenses have been extremely explosive this season. The Longhorns come into play averaging 40.3 points per game, while the Cyclones are right there with them at 41.3 per contest. We should see both teams really take some big chances down field, as both defenses have been sketchy.

Iowa State is conceding 34.0 points per game at home, as they sit in the bottom tier on the defensive side of the ball. Texas has been torched at times as well. This secondary has been vulnerable to balls over the top, something Iowa State has been good at taking advantage of.

Expect back and forth action all night long here out of the Big 12.

Larry Ness

Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Pick: Washington -143

The 95-63 Washington Nationals have won the National League East and enter their final regular-season series (home against Pittsburgh) preparing for their fourth playoff appearance since 2012. Meanwhile, the 73-85 Pirates will visit the nation's capital 16 games behind the Cubs (NL Central champs) and looking ahead to the 2018 season, as Pittsburgh will miss the playoffs for a second straight year, after three consecutive wild card appearances (0-3!).

Ivan Nova (11-14, 4.14 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh and Edwin Jackson (5-6, 5.40 ERA) for Washington. Nova had a nice first half (was 9-6, 3.21 ERA at the All Star break) but he's 2-8 since and his ERA is up to 4.14. Nova has shown some signs of turning the tables on a disastrous stretch in the second half of the season, allowing three ERs in his last two starts. This mark's Nova's career-high 31st start but he has lost four straight decisions and eight of his last nine, dating to July 23. Nova is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in two starts in his career against Washington, with the most recent outing coming in 2016.

The Nationals' Edwin Jackson has not yet been assured of a postseason roster spot but gets the nod here. Washington will then use top starters Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Gio Gonzalez for playoff tune-ups in the last three games. Jackson has posted an 0-3 mark with an 'ugly' 12.38 ERA in his last four starts (Nats are 0-4), allowing nine HRs in what's been a brutal stretch. Jackson is 10-3 with a 3.71 ERA in his career against the Pirates in 21 games, including 8-3, 3.61 in 15 starts (teams are a modest 8-7).

The Pirates have nothing to play for and Nova really hasn't offered much since the break. Sure, Jackson has been awful as of late but he's got motivation here and the opposing team has virtually none! I'll back the home team.

Jim Feist

Braves at Marlins
Pick: Under 9

Atlanta has a below average offense, #20 in runs scored, and they head to Miami, a huge park. Julio Teheran is throwing well, allowing 1, 2, 0 and 3 runs his last four starts. Teheran allowed two runs -- only one earned -- on seven hits and a walk while striking out five batters through seven innings during Saturday's win over Philadelphia. Teheran entered with a 2.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 through his previous five outings, and Saturday's solid showing only improved those marks. The 26-year-old righty has clearly hit stride down the stretch. The Under is 35-16-2 in the Braves last 53 vs. a team with a losing record. Miami starter Dillon Peters loves this park with a 2.25 ERA at home.

Dr Bob

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Lean – Chicago (+7) over GREEN BAY

The Bears beat the Steelers in overtime last week as a 7-point underdog and their 220 rushing yards in that game moved their rush offense to 2nd in the NFL in expected points added. The Packers rush defense is slightly below average and I expect the Bears to feature Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen again this week with good success. In fact, Chicago’s rushing advantage sets them up in a 79-32-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator in this game.

The Packers also won in overtime as they rallied to beat a struggling Cincinnati team. After a slow start to the season, Aaron Rodgers turned it on in the 2nd half throwing two touchdowns and a 72-yard pass in overtime set Green Bay up for the game-winning field goal. Rodgers performance was particularly impressive against a top 10 ranked Bengals pass defense.

I saw value in Chicago’s preseason expectations and the market has caught up given that the line on this game is right where it should be. However, the match-up does favor the Bears and I like the idea of backing a good running team with a solid defense getting a full touchdown. I’ll lean with Chicago at +7 points or more.

SPORTS WAGERS

Texas -4½ over IOWA STATE

In the law world, prima facie means at first glance. This is an affirmative defense that many litigators use by the argument that a verdict cannot be rendered by virtue of what appears at first glance. The same advice can be used in the evaluation of this market. When comparing the two combatants by virtue of first glance alone, the Cyclones appear to be the prudent choice here but we’re not on board for that.

We understand that the Longhorns have fallen on hard times in recent years. There was a time when the Burnt Orange would sell itself but in an age of overexposure and constant media scrutiny, Texas has become a target for criticism in the Big 12 Conference after underperforming in the short-lived Charlie Strong era. Also holding weight in this market is that Texas went into Iowa State two seasons ago and as a -3½ point choice, lost 24-0. The market doesn’t want to get burned again by making that same bet.

The Cyclones, on the other hand, enter this game at 2-1 after boasting two blowout wins over teams that are clearly inferior to them, Akron and Northern Iowa. While the Cyclones were expected to be given more of a fight as 10-point choices in both contests, we can't get excited about a pair of lopsided victories over a pair of lesser programs. The Cyclones sole defeat on the year was a game they could have won against a team that had #4 Penn State by the throat last week. In Ames, the Cyclones led by as much as 11 points against arch nemesis Iowa but the Hawkeyes would rally and force overtime after being behind by double-digit margins on two separate occasions. Ultimately, Iowa State would fall short by a field goal. Football is everything in the state of Iowa and the 'Clones threw everything including the kitchen sink at the Hawkeyes. That loss has been largely forgiven in the market after Iowa's stellar performance against PSU last Saturday and it should be because it was a game effort against a quality football team. This is the reaction to that game effort.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns stock is down after they fell in their season opener in Austin to a Maryland team they spotted 18 points to. The Terps would hang 51 points on the Longhorns in a stunning Week 1 upset that resonated loudly as the first big upset of the year. Texas would follow that up with a 56-0 win over San Jose State, but beating down the Spartans is no crowning achievement be that they are one of Division I’s worst teams. Although the ‘Horns lost in their most recent attempt, it's hard not to like the effort Texas put up in So Cal. The Longhorns came to play as a 17-point road dog at vaunted USC and they would force Sam Darnold to throw two interceptions before the game went into double OT. That performance against the Men of Troy, one of the top teams in the nation, has to be motivating for the Hook-ems. Texas made a Heisman favorite in Darnold look mortal. The Longhorns are dangerous and explosive but their record doesn't show that with losses to Maryland and now the Trojans. We can understand that laying road chalk with a 1-2 team in a football hotbed like Iowa State may not be appealing but Texas is ready to make its first big statement win under Tom Herman. There are no more excuses. No more getting outplayed. No more "they were just better than us today”. Texas is ready to get back into the elite program status and that ascension must start here. We’re trusting it will.

SPORTS WAGERS

GREEN BAY -7 over Chicago

The Bears bounced back in a big way after an embarrassing loss in Tampa with a 23-17 overtime win over the Steelers just four days ago. A "W" over one of the NFL's premier franchises holds a lot of weight in the market and as a result, we've seen a complete 180 in the media coverage and perception of this Bears’ team after the same media saw them as an easy target in Week 3. We call that a “zig-zag” and it's a situation to be mindful of. In a week to week league like the NFL, it's easy to overreact to just one game, especially this early in the year when the market trusts they have a good read on all teams. We say to never trust the erratic markets.

The Bears were predicted to be near the bottom of the NFC standings but have had quality performances against top teams like Atlanta and Pittsburgh but those efforts came in the friendly confines of Soldier Field. The Bears lost their only road game, 29-7 in Tampa. The Bears offense is one-dimensional, as they rely completely on the run game. The NFL Network spent more time this week trying to come up with a cute nickname for the running duo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen than they did breaking down the X's and O's. QB Mike Glennon was so limited against the Steelers that he completed just one pass to a wide receiver while throwing two interceptions. In the NFL, teams’ pass the ball to get a lead and then run the ball to keep it. While the Bears have found success in their new found ground game, it's not a recipe for the long term. The strength of the Bears going back to their heyday of the 80s has been the defense but they've been declawed over the years. So far in 2017, this unit has just seven sacks with no interceptions through three games. Give Aaron Rodgers time and he’ll destroy the opposition.

As one of the bigger favorites of the day, the Packers needed a last-minute touchdown drive just to force overtime in a win over the lowly Bengals. Aaron Rodgers was on the run for most of the game, as the Packers were without starting left tackle David Bakhtiari to begin the game and then lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga for the final 23 plays. Three of the Packers primary backups on the offensive line are already on the IR and both Bakhtiari and Bulaga are doubtful tonight. With this Thursday night game coming on a short week, much has been made about Green Bay's injury situation and its ability or lack thereof to protect Aaron Rodgers. The argument you are going to hear from Chicago backers is that the Packers are too banged up to be spotting this many points to the Bears. They couldn’t cover this same number against Cinci just four days ago so surely, the Bears should also cover easily. Throw in the rivalry angle and Chicago’s appeal gets stronger.

Rarely will you see us mentioning injuries. We’ll let Jim Feist and other greasy tout services use injuries to sell a team. Trust us when we tell you that the oddsmakers know about every single injury and more. The injuries are factored into the line so they become completely irrelevant unless there is an overreaction to it, which increases the value of the team with the injuries. All we’re hearing is how Green Bay is so banged up, which in turn causes said overreaction. Truth be told, this is Mike Glennon, who throws a football like he’s starting a baseball game (with a big wind-up) on the road against Aaron Rodgers. On a short week, we doubt the Bears are going to run the ball more than Rodgers is going to pass it. Thus, expect the Bears to be playing catch-up here like they were in Tampa, which resulted in five Chicago turnovers. Chicago chasing a game on the road wasn’t a pretty sight in Tampa and it likely won’t be a pretty sight here either.

Pass MLB

Chris Jordan

This is the week we see those playoff hopefuls really distance themselves from the pack. Today's National League Central clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds is a prime example.

That's why my free play is on the Brewers on the Run Line, as they're going to blast Cincinnati.

That said, the main reason here is not just the playoff motivation, but there is revenge to consider. The Reds shocked Milwaukee earlier this month, when they swept a three-game series in Cincinnati by a combined score of 21-8.

Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell downplayed the revenge factor, but the players don't forget that sort of thing. They'll want this series for both reasons, and can wrap up a sweep today.

Coming into this series, Reds had won four of their past six meetings with the Brewers. But after last night's win, Milwaukee leads the season series 11-7. And it is must-win time for the Brewers.

3* BREWERS -1.5

Jack Brayman

I loved this American League Central showdown between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians soaring past the number the past two nights and split out

I expect the rivals to finish on a high note.

Look, there are a lot of things at stake, and we have two very offensive teams. The Twins are hoping to stay in the wild-card race, while the Indians are looking to capture the No. 1 seed in the American League. The bats will be flowing.

Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Ervin Santana and Carlos Carrasco If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.

The Twins are moving Santana up a day so he can be in line to start a potential AL Wild Card Game, and even though he has been the club's best pitcher and has a 3.86 ERA in five September starts, I think Cleveland chases him in a tough spot.

Meanwhile, Carrasco got the win against Seattle in his last start, lasting 5.2 innings and allowing one run on six hits with six strikeouts. Yes, in his last six starts, the right-hander has gone 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 45 strikeouts against five walks, but that just means the due theory kicks in.

Play this one high.

2* Twins-Indians Over

Joey Juice

Thursday's comp play is on Iowa State at home against Texas.

It's time to take the points gentleman.

Impressive "Air Attack" coming as the Cyclone quarterback Jacob Park is really starting to heat up. When you combine that with the fact that they're averaging 311 yards passing a game, and the Texas pass defense has been less than average at best, I'm looking for Iowa State to put up big numbers.

They've been putting up big numbers all season long scoring at least 40 points in all 3 games including 41 against rival Iowa and their extremely stingy defense.

When we look inside the numbers we see that he Iowa State Cyclones are a great home team to bet on, 7-1 ATS last 8 at home. In fact in this series the home team is a good team to bet on, 4-1 ATS last 5 in the series.

Take the points.

3* IOWA STATE

Tommy Brunson

Something has to give tonight as far as the total is concerned, as Chicago comes into this game having played ALL 3 of their games Under the total, while Green Bay has played their last pair of games this season Over the total.

Which way do you go?

Well, I am siding with the Over in this one. True, 2 of the last 3 in the series have held Under, but 5 of the last 7 overall have played Over the posted price in this NFC North rivalry.

Green Bay got started very slowly on offense this past Sunday, as they were held to just 7 points against Cincinnati before the scoring started to happen. That Over marked the 14th time in their last 21 games that Mike McCarthy's team has landed Over the posted price.

If you ask me, playing a game with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback Under the total is like playing with fire...you just don't do it.

Bears-Packers Over this Thursday night.

2* CHICAGO-GREEN BAY OVER

The Prez

Chicago at Green Bay
Play: Green Bay -7

The oldest rivalry in the history of the National Football League kicks off NFL Week #4. While the series between these two "Black and Blue" foes is tied at 93-games a piece Green Bay (-7, 45) has won 36 of the last 49 meetings against Chicago, including six of the last seven. The two NFC North rivals take Lambeau Field for this week's Thursday Night Football event. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:25 p.m. ET with the NFL Network and CBS Sports broadcasting the event.

Situational trends played their part for both of tonight's teams a week ago. The Bears upset Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers last Sunday. Roethlisberger was his inconsistent self on the road once again while the Bears were ultra competitive at Soldier Field. The Packers suffered a hangover in their overtime victory against the Cincinnati Bengals and the affair figured to be a trap after beginning the season with contests against Seattle and Atlanta.

Chicago (1-2) will depend heavily on running the football in this Lambeau affair. The game plan for the Bears is obvious. Keep the Packers All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense off the field. Additionally, keep quarterback Mike Glennon clean while in the pocket versus the Packers front seven and at the same time keep the crowd noise of the Green Bay faithful in check.

The Bears executed a similar game plan to perfection in their win over Pittsburgh this past Sunday. The offense rushed for 220 yards. Running back Jordan Howard gained 138 yards on 23 carries in combination with rookie tailback Tarik Cohen who registered 78 yards on 12 carries.

Glennon threw for a mere 101 yards in the 23-17 victory against the Steelers. The Bears wide receiver corps lost last year's leading receiver Cameron Meredith to an ACL injury in August which has resulted in Glennon depending on his running backs, Howard and Cohen, to carry a larger portion of the receiving load out of the backfield.

The team also lost veteran safety Quintin Demps to a broken arm in Sunday's win over Pittsburgh. The injury is a serious blow to a defense that has only eight interceptions in each of the past two seasons.

Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback in the league and while he hasn't won the number of championships that New England's Tom Brady has the Green Bay field general is especially tough to defeat on the Lambeau turf.

Despite working behind a make shift offensive line that has seen three of the five starters suffer injuries Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game. Running back Ty Montgomery, a receiver by trade, leads the team in receptions. Montgomery has rushed for only 124 yards in three games so far this season. While the offensive line has experienced a large number of setbacks - resulting in 18 sacks to their future Hall of Fame quarterback - the Packers' receiving corps got good news on Wednesday when Randall Cobb was taken off the team's injury report.

Last week's upset of the Steelers was more about what Pittsburgh did, and didn't do, than what the Bears achieved on both sides of the Ball. Glennon threw for just over 100 yards and the offense benefited from Pittsburgh turnovers.

The Bears lack the playmakers at receiver to be anything more than average on offense and the loss of Demps was a serious blow to the future success of the defense.