Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Thursday, September 29thnd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Marc Lawrence
Dolphins vs. Bengals
Play: Under 44½
Edges - Dolphins: 0-3 UNDER last three games in this series; and scored average 17.4 PPG last seven road games. Bengals: 3-7-1 UNDER on Thursdays. With Miami 2-11-1 UNDER in it last fourteen games on Thursday, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER in this game.
Brandon Shively
Connecticut vs. Houston
Play: Houston -27½
When laying four touchdowns or more in college football, I look for a team to be motivated in order to cover the number and also look for strong matchup edges. Houston has both. UConn gave Houston their only loss last season losing 20-17 as Greg Ward was injured and didn’t start the game. Greg Ward is an electric quarterback and will be 100% heading into this game Thursday night. Houston is converting on 53.4% of 3rd downs this season behind Ward and a balanced offense averaging over 200 rushing and passing yards a game.
We know Houston has had this game circled since last season as revenge is the motive. UConn has gotten outscored 31-0 in the 1st quarter this year (Houston 1st quarter is also an advised 1* Play) and that fits perfectly into my expectations that Houston will build an early lead and mash the gas for the remainder of the game.
Houston’s defense is leading the AAC with 34 tackles for loss while UConn is ranked last in AAC with only 15 tackles for a loss. I see UConn being stuck in a lot of ‘3rd and longs’ which can lead to bad decisions by the QB against a Houston defense that leads the FBS in forced turnovers the last 3 season.
Houston is averaging 44 ppg on the season. UConn’s offense has been one of the nation's worst over the last 2+ seasons and their offensive line is lacking depth because of injuries this season which has not helped matters. QB Shirreffs is next to last in QB rating in the AAC this year barely edging out SMU freshman QB Hicks just to keep things in perspective. UConn is only averaging 11.8 ppg since 2014 as a road underdog and I don’t see them scoring more than 13-14 points here. I think this game gets ugly quick and the Cougars will continue with a demolition of the UConn Huskies.
Strike Point Sports
Cincinnati (-7) over Miami
The Miami Dolphins just aren't very good. Ryan Tannehill just looks bad. The Bengals have had an extremely tough start to the season having to play at the Jets, at the Steelers, and home to the Broncos. Now they get to stay at home for the second week in a row and take out some frustrations on a Miami team that looked terrible versus the Browns. The Bengals will be able to move the ball at will and should have little difficulty hitting at least the 30-point mark in this game. Look for Andy Dalton and AJ Green to have big games in this Thursday Night matchup. Miami is giving up only 22 points a game, but they are giving up over 400 yards of offense per game. This will haunt them in this matchup as the Bengals have size in the red zone to finish off drives in front of their home fans. Lay the touchdown in this game as the Bengals win by double-figures 34-20.
Vernon Croy
Texas Tech (-28) over Kansas
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have the Red Raiders winning this game by 36+ points at home Thursday if they take care of the ball. The Red Raiders have averaged over 306 more yards per game than the Jayhawks, and Kansas simply does not have an offense built to keep pace with Red Raiders pass attack. The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games when playing a team with a losing record on the road, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing a team with a losing record. The favorite has covered the spread in the last 7 games played between these two teams, and the Jayhawks are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing a team with a winning record. The Jayhawks are 9-27-1 ATS in their last 37 road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after a blowout loss of more than 20 points. The Jayhawks are also just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after a bye week and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games when playing a team with a winning record. The Jayhawks defense faces their biggest test of the season, and I just don't think they can slow down this Red Raiders offense.
Rob Vinciletti
Twins vs. Royals
Play: Under 8
In the series here in KC These two have gone under in 13 of the last 14. Duffy pitching for the Royals is 9-2 in his career vs the Twins with a 2.53 era. Gibson for the Twins has a decent 3.38 era against KC and has gone under in his last 3 starts in this park. The Twins are struggling at the plate scoring just 2 runs on .167 hitting over the past week. They have gone under in 12 of the last 15 as a dog. Look for this game to stay under.
Sean Murphy
Kansas vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech -28½
Texas Tech will undoubtedly be eager to get after it defensively in this one as they face a manageable matchup after giving up a boatload of points against Arizona State and Louisiana Tech in its last two games - a whopping 113 points to be exact.
Kansas has just one win to its credit this season, that coming in its opener against FCS squad Rhode Island. Since that win, the Jayhawks have been outscored 80-28 in losses to Ohio and Memphis. Staying on the road for the second consecutive game, this is by no means a favorable matchup.
The Jayhawks know that in order to win this game, they're likely going to have to find the end zone on virtually every drive. That's obviously just not a feasible gameplan for a squad that lacks explosive personnel on offense.
Again, the x-factor here will be the Red Raiders defense. Texas Tech is below average in that department but I'm not convinced Kansas can take advantage of that weakness.
Look for the Red Raiders to get off to a fast start and never let their foot off the gas as they ultimately pull away for a blowout victory.
Jim Feist
Twins at Royals
Pick: Over
Kyle Gibson (6-11, 5.04 ERA) goes for Minnesota with batters hitting .296 on him for the season. He is off a 10-1 loss to Seattle with the bullpen imploding and the team is 9-1-1 over the total when he takes the mound. The team is on a 22-7-1 run over the total. Kansas City is home on a 12-3 run over the total here, 6-0 over when Danny Duffy starts. And when these division rivals clash the Over is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings.
David Banks
Connecticut @ Houston
Pick: Houston -29.5
Under head coach Tom Herman, the Houston Cougars have lost just once. That was last year when Houston traveled to Connecticut and the Huskies outlasted a Houston team minus its quarterback, Greg Ward Jr., and starting linebacker Elandon Roberts, who was ejected early in the game. Houston, currently ranked No. 6 in the nation, was 10-0 at the time last year and lost 20-17. The Cougars are 4-0 with wins over Oklahoma and Cincinnati and would like nothing more than to avenge last year’s loss.
The college football world is well aware of the Ward’s talents and the Cougars’ offense – 43.3 points per game – but the Houston defense is just as good. Herman’s defensive squad gives up just 10.5 points a game, good enough for fourth in the country. The Cougars will face a UConn offense that doesn’t score a lot of points and has the potential to make some key mistakes. In last week’s loss to Syracuse, QB Bryant Shireffs threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown late in the third quarter.
Playing at home will be a huge advantage for Houston. Ward, who did not start against the Huskies last year because of an ankle injury, has 936 yards passing, 113 on the ground, and has a total of eight touchdowns. Connecticut (2-2) will have its hands full trying to slow down the Houston offense. If they can keep it close, the Huskies have a shot. All four of their games this season have been decided by seven points or less.
Jimmy Boyd
UConn at Houston
Play: UConn
Even with the massive spread, books know they are going to get a lot of action on this game. The betting public has a hard time not playing these weekday games. Oddsmakers have inflated this line, knowing the public money will be all on the Cougars. They really have no choice here but to set a high number with the opponent being Connecticut. The Huskies aren’t a popular team and aren’t perceived to be any good. The public would much rather lay the points with a team like Houston than stomach backing the dog. Especially, when that team hasn’t covered a game all season. While it’s been a rough go for Connecticut against the number, this team could easily be 3-1. The Huskies had a 24-21 lead late in the 4th quarter at Navy, but ended up losing 24-28. They also played well in their loss against Syracuse. They had a 23-19 edge in first downs and controlled the clock for 38 minutes and 30 seconds. The difference in the game being a 22-yard interception for a touchdown late in the 3rd quarter. I know Houston isn’t going to overlook the Huskies after what happened last year. However, four touchdowns is a big number to be laying in a conference game. At the same time, Connecticut is going to be up for this game. They have a chance to show to play in the national spotlight against a highly ranked team. People also discredit their win over Houston last year, due to Greg Ward Jr. not playing. Connecticut is holding teams to just 22.5 ppg and only 381 ypg. While not great, defense is one of the strengths of this team. Houston did struggle offensively a couple weeks ago against Cincinnati. The Cougars actually trailed 12-16 in the 4th quarter. Turnovers by the Bearcats late led to a very misleading 40-16 win. UConn isn't a team that's going to lay down, even if they are down big late. With a potential showdown against undefeated Navy on deck, I think the Cougars call off the dogs late in this one. The run defense for Houston has been outstanding of late. They have held each of their last 3 opponents to 33 yards or less. However, they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. It's also important to note that UConn has the ability to throw the ball. The Huskies come in completing 67.5% of their pass attempts against teams who on average are only allowing opposing QB's to complete 58.8%. We also find a solid system in play favoring a fade of the Cougars. Home favorites that are allowing 225 or less total yards in their last 3 games are 9-31 (22%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +8 over CINCINNATI
The Dolphins do not get a lot of press nor are they watched frequently but there were a plethora of Survivor participants watching the final quarter and OT in Miami’s near miss at home last week against the inept Brownies. Survivor players held their breath, as Browns’ kicker Cody Parkey missed a 38-yard FG on the final play of regulation to send the game to OT. Parkey missed three FG’s overall so the 10-point favored Dolphins were triple lucky to escape with a victory. We can understand the market’s sentiment in wanting nothing to do with the Dolphins this week after that lucky win last week but all that does is provide us with a great opportunity.
Miami is a weak favorite but a solid pooch. There is no question that Ryan Tannehill is a hot & cold quarterback but Cincinnati’s QB Andy Dalton has an identical Passer Rating this season and has only tossed half as many touchdowns. As Dalton's mentor, Hue Jackson, has left him. Who is now there to pick up the pieces?
The Bengals are 1-2 but could easily be 0-3 after a 23-22 victory over the Jets in Week 1. Perhaps the Bengals are still really good, as they have played the Jets, Steelers and Broncos thus far but if they are, we have not seen it yet. Cinci’s defense has not been good. If it were good, both the Jets and Broncos offense would not have been able to move the ball as easily as they did. The Bengals corners were ripped up by the Denver wideouts last week.
Andy Dalton had just 206 yards and no scores when the Broncos showed up last week. Dalton is still without tight end Tyler Eifert and that hurts. His wide receivers have been of marginal help outside of A.J. Green and his one monster game. This market is largely ignoring the Bengals struggles thus far in favour of putting too much emphasis on the Dolphins nearly losing to Cleveland. Let us point out that the Dolphins were coming off road games against Seattle and New England before facing the Earthtones and they were in a position to win both. Perhaps the Bengals wake up here and play their first real complete game of the year but with plenty of questions about the defense, passing game and replaced coaches, we can't take this team seriously as a contender to repeat as division winners. Through three games, the Bengals are 0-3 against the spread and haven't looked anything like a team with which we'd want to lay heavy weight with on a short week.
Colorado +164 over SAN FRAN
Jonathan Gray has logged a nifty 14% swing and miss rate over the last month. Over that stretch, he’s posted 12 K’s/9 and 3.07 xERA. Pit those figures against the .610 OPS registered by San Francisco over the last month and Gray is a solid value play in this night game at AT&T.
Johnny Cueto returns from a groin strain that necessitated a skipped start in the last spin of the Giants’ rotation. His four starts before the time off were excellent but he did labor down the stretch last season and the Giants pen can easily blow a lead in the unlikely event that the Giants have a lead. Ok, perhaps that’s a not so unlikely but the point is that the Rocks offer up way too much value here to pass up, as San Fran is scuffling horribly and winning rarely.
Pass NCAAF
Larry Ness
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The A’s and Mariners begin a four-game series tonight, as the 2016 regular season comes to a close. The 67-91 A's (67-91) need two wins to top last year’s 68-94 record but the 84-74 Mariners will be on their home turf for a late September series that actually matters, which is to say the least, something new. Seattle trails Baltimore by two games in the AL wild-card race and still owns a shot at ending its 16-year playoff drought. The Mariners may need a four-game sweep to have a realistic chance of staying in contention but will surely need to win three of the four.
Seattle has not been to the postseason since winning 116 games in 2001, as the Mariners own the longest current playoff drought of any team in MLB (note: Seattle remains the lone AL franchise to have never made a World series appearance). “King Felix” Hernandez, who is scheduled to start Sunday's regular-season finale, has never pitched in a postseason game. Hernandez (11-7, 3.71) and fellow veteran Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 3.96) are scheduled to pitch the two weekend games but the Mariners will rely on a pair of youngsters to keep them in the race until then. Rookie Ariel Miranda (5-2, 4.10 ERA) is scheduled to start Thursday's series opener, while 24-year-old Taijuan Walker (7-11, 4.35) is on tap to start Friday. Opposing Miranda (27-years old) will be Oakland’s Kendall Graveman (10-11, 4.19 ERA).
Graveman is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA in five career starts against the Mariners (team is 1-4), including going 0-3 with a no-decision in 2016 (A’s are 0-4). Those kind of results are not hard to understand, when pitching for a team which has scored an AL-low 638 runs heading into the Seattle series (that’s 4.04 RPG). Miranda gave up three runs on three hits (including two HRs) in four innings at Minnesota in his last start, ending his four-start winning streak. In this, Miranda’s rookie season, he’s 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in six games (five starts / team is 3-2) at home. I’ll take Seattle (Mariners are 10-5 vs the A’s in 2016) to stay alive with a win.
Brandon Lee
Rays vs. White Sox
Play: Under 7.5
The books have set the bar too high for this one. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer has really been throwing the ball well for the last two months, but doesn't get a lot of love because he's 8-19 with a 4.02 ERA overall. Chicago's Jose Quintanta has been as consistent as they come but gets overlooked cause he's on a bad team. Both of these starters are in a position to excel and each has performed well against the opposition in recent meetings. Archer has a 3.08 ERA in 4 career starts against the White Sox and Quintana has a 3.33 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rays. UNDER is 15-4 in Chicago's last 19 home games after allowing 1 or less runs in their last game and 10-4 in Archer's last 14 starts when the Rays are coming off a game where they scored 2 or less.
Chase Diamond
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Under 8½
This game has the 70-88 Phillies and the 65-92 Braves. Both these teams would love to get this season over asap the Phillies imo have not had to bad of a season and I think you will see a much improved young team next year but let's face it both teams here struggle to score runs and I think you will see a big time effort from Jeremy Hellickson who is 12-10 with a 3.78 ERA make a real push to show he is a solid big league starter and finish out the season on a great note. Jeremy is a free agent so the better he looks the more money he will be getting. Last game out he struggled so he looks for the comeback tonight. Josh Collmenter who is off a game where he pitched 7 strong innings and is 3-0 this season he too looks to show he has what it takes in the big leagues as a starter.
Mike Lundin
Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8
The St. Louis Cardinals trail San Francisco by one game for the second wild card in the National League, with only four games remaining. They're 2-5 in their last seven games and they've been very inconsistent at the plate lately. The Reds won last night's meeting 2-1 and the under is now 7-2 in the Cardinals last nine home games.
Dan Straily (14-8, 3.74 ERA) takes the ball for Cincinnati. He has posted a 2.61 ERA through his last three starts and he held the Cardinals to one run and three hits over 5 2/3 innings on Sept. 3. The Cardinals turn to Alex Reyes (4-1, 1.58 ERA) who surrendered three runs and six hits over five frames against the Cubs in his last time out but had tossed seven scoreless innings against the Giants in his previous turn. Reyes faced the Reds on Sept. 2, when he held them to two runs and six hits in six innings.
The nerves are getting to the Cardinals, especially at the plate and we can note that they were 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position yesterday. I expect a low-scoring contest at Busch Stadium tonight.