Ricky Tran
Oakland at Seattle
Play: Seattle -150
The Mariners are fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive when they open a four-game set with the A's Thursday night. Oakland is dead last in the AL West and it has lost eight of its last nine games. Graveman is 0-3 in his last three starts and 0-3 in four starts against Seattle this season. The Mariners knocked him around for eight runs on 12 hits and three walks over five innings on Sept. 10. Miranda is certainly no ace, but he's a more than respectable 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in six games (five starts) at home here in his rookie season. This is another must win game for Seattle who came through in a 12-4 win at Houston last night.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas vs. Texas Tech
Play: Kansas +28
Oddsmakers have no choice here but to inflate this line on the Red Raiders. The betting public wants nothing to do with Kansas, who has gone a horrific 2-22 over their last 24 games. Not to mention they are just 4-11 against the spread in their last 15.
Texas Tech has some serious offensive fire-power. The Red Raiders come in averaging 61.0 ppg on a ridiculous 679 yards/game. The betting public is going to see this and lay the points without hesitating. Especially, after seeing the Jayhawks only managed 7-points in their last game at Memphis. I'm not saying Memphis is an elite defense, but the Tigers do rank 16th (Top 30 vs both run and the pass) in the country in total defense after the first 4 weeks of the season.
The thing is that Texas Tech doesn’t have a great defense. The Red Raiders come in giving up 5 yards/carry on the ground and 7.9 yards/pass attempt. Kansas has a history of covering the number against teams who struggle defensively. The Jayhawks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 against teams that allow 31 or more points/game.
Another big concern I have here with Texas Tech is how motivated they are going to be for this game. Kansas doesn’t exactly put fear into their opponents and the focus might not be there coming off a bye.
You also have to look at how competitive the Jayhawks have been in this series. Last year they only lost by 10-points as a 33-point dog. The previous year they lost by just 13 as a double-digit dog at Texas Tech. Only once in the last 6 meetings have the Red Raiders beat Kansas by more than 28 points.
It’s no secret that Texas Tech’s strength offensively is their passing attack. While I’m not saying Kansas’ secondary is top notch, it’s been decent so far. Believe it or not they have the 5th ranked pass defense in the country, giving up only 135.0 ypg. A lot of that is because teams have been just running all over them, but Texas Tech can be stubborn and force the passing game even when they have a big edge on the ground. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 47.6% of their attempts against them on the season. They also are allowing just 4.8 yards/pass attempt.
They aren’t going to hold the Red Raiders to those marks. However, if they can limit the big plays through the air, it increases their chances of covering. I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas Tech didn’t keep this one pretty vanilla on offense. There’s no reason to open up the playbook against an inferior opponent. Especially with the schedule they have looming. After this game the Red Raiders schedule goes like this: @ Kansas State, W Virginia, Oklahoma, @ TCU, Texas, @ Oklahoma St.
Lastly, Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points who have failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, are 92-44 (68%) ATS since 1992.
Jack Jones
Connecticut vs. Houston
Play: Houston -27
The Houston Cougars seem to be on a mission right now to make the four-team playoff. They know they are going to need style points along the way if they are going to be one of the final four teams standing at season’s end. It appears head coach Tom Herman is keeping the foot on the gas every week.
After a huge 33-23 win over Oklahoma in the opener, the Cougars have gone on to win three straight games in blowout fashion. They topped Lamar 42-0 in Week 2 despite playing without two of their best players in QB Greg Ward Jr. and RB Duke Catalon.
In Week 3, they went on the road as only 7-point favorites and hammered a good Cincinnati team 40-16. Then last week, they kept their foot on the gas in a 64-3 win at Texas State for four quarters as 31-point favorites.
Adding fuel to the fire for the Cougars is the fact that their only loss last season came to Connecticut by a final of 20-17 on the road. However, Greg Ward Jr. got hurt very early in that game and had to leave after only four pass attempts. The Huskies took advantage. The Cougars are going to want serious revenge here.
Connecticut has played a very easy schedule thus far with Maine, Navy, Virginia and Syracuse. Its only two wins came over Maine (24-21) and Virginia (13-10) at home by a combined six points. Now it will face by far the toughest team it has this season in Houston.
The Huskies don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up in this one. They are only averaging 354 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opponents that are allowing 437 yards per game and 6.2 per play. Heck, their defense is even below-average this year as they are giving up 6.1 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 per play.
The Cougars are putting up 44.7 points and 497.5 yards per game this season. Their defense has been underrated, giving up 10.5 points, 228.7 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play. And they are one of the best defenses in the country over the past few years at forcing turnovers. They have already forced seven turnovers, while the Huskies have already turned it over six times.
Connecticut is 1-13 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons. Houston is 7-0 ATS after scoring 42 points or more over the last two seasons. The Huskies are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. The Cougars are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a ATS win.
Plays on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (HOUSTON) – outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in two straight games are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Dave Price
Philadelphia Phillies +122
I like the price we are getting here with the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves, who are simply overvalued right now due to surprisingly winning 9 of their last 10 games overall coming in. Jeremy Hellickson is quietly having a superb season for the Phillies. he's 12-10 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 31 starts, and 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hellickson has gone 1-0 with a 4.07 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against Atlanta, all of which have come this season. He'll be opposed by Josh Collmenter, who is 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Philadelphia. Hellickson is a very profitable 14-12 (+8.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
Vegas Butcher
Colorado Rockies +180
A top-30 pitcher and top-10 over the last 30-days catching almost 2-to-1 here? As good as Cueto is, Gray has been just as good this season (3.6 SIERA vs 3.7 SIERA), even though the ERA won’t show it (2.8 vs 4.5). Plus San Fran ranks 28th offensively over the last 30-days, as this team is really struggling to hit the ball right now. Cueto missed his last start due to a groin issue, and this will now be the 4th time he’s seeing San Fran on the year. His SIERA’s in the previous 3 starts against them: 4.6, 4.6, and 3.2. Chances of him pitching closer to that 4.6 mark than 3.2 is much higher today from my standpoint and I absolutely have to grab the generous odds with the road team.
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, laying a big number to Kansas, in Lubbock. I think this could be over by halftime.
I think the Jayhawks will be defensive in the first quarter and may carry things over to the second, but those DBs will get tired. The Raiders will be relentless with their vertical game, and that's where I see them deflating the Jayhawks, is toward halftime.
While Kansas' passing defense has been one of the team’s biggest strengths this season, tonight they'll be facing a Red Raiders unit that is damn near No. 1 in every passing stat.
Behind its nation-leading 548 passing yards per game, Texas Tech is averaging 61 points per contest. The Raiders tapped 55 in every game this season.
Texas Tech is too good. Lay the chalk.
2* TEXAS TECH
Brad Wilton
My comp play tonight will be the Yankees to complete the three game sweep of the Red Sox in the Bronx.
After losing all four at Fenway in the middle of this month, New York is looking to return the favor tonight at Yankee Stadium.
Boston did clinch the division title last night when Toronto lost to Baltimore, so they could be resting a few of their starters this evening.
As for the Yankees, they will send CC Sabathia to the mound for what may very well be his last start in a New York uniform.
Sabathia has worked in 4 straight no-decisions, and in 2 of his last 3 starts he has not allowed a run to score. He did surrender 4 runs at Boston in his 5 innings as part of that four game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, but escaped with the ND.
Henry Owens will go for Boston, and is making his first start since August 21st, and will go in place of Drew Pomeranz.
Owens sports an ERA over 5 in his 15 career starts.
New York is still mathematically alive for the second Wild Card spot, so let's side with them to complete the sweep.
2* N.Y. YANKEES
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Kansas City Royals over the Minnesota Twins.
The defending World Series champs won't be playing in the postseason, as there are four games left and they're five games out of the American League wild card race.
But they're at home and after being in the World Series the last two years, the least they can do is play for the crowd.
They've won four in a row, while the Twins are mired in a 1-10 slide and are an abysmal 26-51 on the road this season.
Let's lay the low chalk with Kansas City in this one, and don't bother listing pitchers.
1* ROYALS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Twins and Royals to hold Under the total in their series finale.
The fist two games of this three game set have held Under and I see Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy doing their part in making it a "hat trick" of Unders this evening at Kauffman Stadium.
Gibson sports an ERA of 3.00 for his last 3 starts, while his counterpart Duffy has cooled off with an ERA of 6.00 for his last 3 efforts.
Still, Duffy is 7-0 at home this season with a 3.43 ERA, so with the opportunity to end his season undefeated at home, I will look for Duffy to step it up tonight.
Minnesota has played their last 4 Under the total, and the Under is 13-3-1 overall the Twins last 17 games played.
Kansas City has held Under in 5 of their last 8 games played.
Going to stay low tonight in KC.
4* MINNESOTA-KANSAS CITY UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free play for Thursday night is on the Chicago White Sox over the Rays, as the Pale Hose will take advantage of a dismal Tampa Bay lineup that ranks in the bottom of the league in runs scored on the road.
Chicago has won five straight - including the first three in this series - and is 44-33 at home this season. The Sox just took two in a row from the division-leading Indians, in Cleveland, last weekend. So there was a little momentum to embrace there, coming into this series. After winning the last three nights in this series, the Sox win this one too and keep the party going in Chi-town, before the Twins arrive to close the season.
Take the White Sox here, as they roll past Tampa Bay.
2* WHITE SOX
OC Dooley
Dolphins +4.5 1st Half
The Miami Dolphins have been a "slow starting" team down by an average of at least 5 points per game by halftime so there is a sense of urgency to get out of the gate quicker. Since they are coming off a Sunday home game where there was significant heat and humidity I feel the odds of the Dolphins being more competitive are in the OPENING half before they ultimately wear down
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (-27.5) over Connecticut
Revenge! Amazingly, UConn inflicted Houston’s only loss last year 20-17 costing the Cougars a potential spot in the “Final Four” and a shot at the National Championship. Think they’ll remember that?! In fact, Coug’s coach Tom Herman has coached Houston in 18 games and that is the only game he has lost!! Houston has hammered Oklahoma and Cincinnati so this could be a let down spot except Connecticut beat them last year! Coug’s get there revenge tonight. Lay the lumber in a Houston rout!