Free Picks for Thursday, September 7th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Cal Sports
Chiefs at Patriots
Play: Under 49
Last season the Patriots were #4 averaging 386 YPG on offense while the Chiefs finished #20 at 343 YPG. However, looking at their scoring New England (also #3) averaged 27.6 points/game while KC was #13 in the league scoring 24.3 points/game. Both teams offenses were aided by the fact that these two teams were the NFL’s #1 and #3 teams in regards to turnover margin as KC was +16 TO’s, with 33 takeaways and 17 giveaway’s while NE was +12 with 23 “only” takeaways and a league low 11 giveaways.
When we look on the defensive side of the ball the Patriots were #8, allowing 326 YPG while the Chiefs were #24 at 368 YPG. What set these two teams apart from the rest of the NFL was their scoring defenses as New England led the league allowing only 15.6 PPG while Kansas City was #7 allowing 19.4 PPG. The Chiefs finished #5 in the league in Red Zone defense while New England was #3 in Goal to Goal defense.
The Over/Under line is certainly inflated with having two top ten scoring defenses. Both teams have ‘bend but don’t brake’ defenses with offenses that that prefer to run the ball and rarely play up-tempo. While the opening Thursday Night means we have last year’s Super Bowl Champ in this case it is also the only AFC game with two of last year’s post=season participants. It will be a low scoring affair tonight!
Buster Sports
Kansas City at New England
Play: Kansas City +7.5
The last time these teams played each other it was in the divisional playoff on January 16th 2016. The Patriots won 27-20 went on to meet Denver and lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions. Move forward to opening night of the 2017/2018 football season and the New England Patriots are fresh off of their 5th Super Bowl win in the Tom Brady era and their 2nd Championship in 3 years. Kansas City opens the season trying to slay the Number 1 team at Gillette Stadium where the Patriots are almost unbeatable. In fact, in games that Tom Brady has started, the Patriots have lost only one home game to an AFC opponent since 2007. By the way that loss was to Buffalo in 2014 and the game meant nothing to the Patriots.
So why pick the Chiefs. We believe the Chiefs will be one of the top teams in the NFL this season. They have been right there on the cusp and this year could be their year. What better way than to start the season and beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Unlike other Super Bowl winners, HC Belichick will not let the Patriots have a hangover from winning the Super Bowl. The last time the Patriots won the Super Bowl they beat Pittsburgh on opening night by 7. The Chiefs have always played the Patriots tough for the most part and everyone remembers the beatdown that KC gave the Patriots on a Monday night in 2014. HC Andy Reid no matter what people may say/think is an excellent football coach with time to prepare. Everyone is well aware of his Bye week prowess. Although this is not a bye week we like the fact that the Chiefs will be well prepared to face the Patriots. Both these teams play very good defense and this may end up being a very tight game from start to finish. We are more than happy to take the large number with the Chiefs as we write this in May even with the game at Foxborough.
We see this being a close game coming down to a FG. Yes the Patriots are great at home, but if anytime you can get these guys it is going to be early in the year. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and we will be happy to take the 7 1/2 points here.
Marc Lawrence
Chiefs vs. Patriots
Play: Over 47½
Edges - Patriots: 13-6 OVER home in season opening games… Chiefs 6-2 OVER as a visitor in this series… With defending Super Bowl champions having played OVER in 15 of 23 home games in season openers, look for Thursday night season openers to improve to 4-1-1 OVER in the last six years here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game.
Ray Monohan
Cincinnati at New York
Play: Cincinnati -111
This is a fade Matt Harvey play on Thursday.
The Mets season has been a huge let down. Everything that could go wrong has seemingly gone wrong. Through many injuries, poor play, and traded players, the Mets are pretty much ready for this season to be over.
Matt Harvey will take the ball and he returned to an absolute beat down against the Astros last time out. Harvey allowed 7 runs in just 2.0 innings of work as he just hasn't been able to figure anything out this season.
Some trends to note. Mets are 3-9 in Harveys last 12 starts on grass. Mets are 1-4 in Harveys last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
It goes without saying, but even after looking at the trends, Harvey has just been a wreck this season.
Braxton Myles
Chiefs vs. Patriots
Play: Chiefs +9½
I love this spread for the first official game of the NFL season! Everybody's money is on the returning Super Bowl Champs and for good reasons, in my opinion this may be the smartest line your may get against the patriots all season. The Chiefs are going to have one of the best turnover defenses in the league this season and I hope for them to start the season off right with getting a few turnovers against New England's weak running game. Alex Smith is 1-1 at New England ATS and 13-9 as a road underdog ATS. New England is a tough team to go against on the spread, especially at home but for the first game with all of the starters being in a 9.5 line for New England is to much here against a very good Chiefs team. I am giving this Thursday night NFL game a 4 star rating.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati at New York
Play: New York +109
The 61-79 Reds just swept the Brewers at Cincy in a three-games series and now head to Queens to take on the equally inept Mets (60-79) for a four-game series at Citi Field. The Mets opened a seven-game homestand by taking two of three from the MLB-worst Phillies (53-86) Monday-Wednesday. The Reds took two of three from the Mets at Cncinnati from August 29-31 New York has won six straight vs Cincinnati at Citi Field.
Tyler Mahle (0-1, 2.45 ERA) will get the ball for the Reds. Mahle has pitched 155.1 innings this season in stints with Double-A and Triple-A but this marks just his third major-league start in 2017. He's still looking for his first win (Reds are 0-2) and this marks his first appearance against the Mets. Harvey, like many of New York's starters this year, has been limited by injury. In his first start since spending time on the disabled list with a stress reaction in his right shoulder, Harvey allowed seven runs in a career-low two innings at Houston on Saturday (Mets lost 12-8 ). "I thought his delivery was good," Collins told reporters. "Have to get his command down. Step one, it's just nice to see him back out there."
The Mets are desperate for Harvey to give them some hope he can regain his former status. He is just 8-14 with a 5.35 ERA in 31 starts since the start of last year after opening his career by going 25-18 with a 2.53 ERA in 65 starts from 2012 through 2015. Harvey has had good success against the Reds, going 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA over five career starts (Mets are 4-1), so why not right here?
Jim Feist
Phillies at Nationals
Pick: Under
This is a good park to pitch in and a weak Philadelphia offense is in town. The Phillies have a good arm going in Aaron Nola (3.72 ERA), with more strikeouts than innings pitched. Washington is on a 16-6-4 run under the total, 18-6-3 under during game 1 of a series. Starter Tanner Roark (11-9) took the 1-0 loss against the Brewers on Friday despite allowing only one run on five hits and a walk while striking out 10 over seven innings. Roark now has five quality starts in his last six trips to the mound, missing the sixth by only one out, and his 3.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 37:12 K:BB in 38 innings over that stretch.
Jim Feist
Kansas City at New England
Play: New England -8
A tough road trip for Kansas City to open the season at the champs. Kansas City plays a ball control offense but faces an uptempo, attacking New England offense that is better than a year ago with a healthy TE Rob Gronkowski and the addition of speedy WR Brandon Cooks. The Patriots are on a 34-16-2 ATS run, 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games, plus 18-7-2 ATS against the AFC. And the Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings, 1-4 ATS New England.
VegasButcher
Teaser - Patriots -2.5 & Ravens +9.5
I know there will be ‘distractions’ in this game for the Pats, but this team has been there before (at least their QB and HC have been J) and I think there’s enough of difference in quality here for the Pats to win by FG+.
Ravens at this ‘teased-up’ number look appetizing. This is a divisional matchup so the two teams know each other very well. Plus, Cincy will be without Jones, Burfict, and their 1st round pick Ross in this one. The Ravens had the 3rd best defense last year, and I expect them to be just as good this season on that side of the ball. This one should be a close contest, and I’ll grab the teased-up points in this one.
Vernon Croy
St. Louis (-125) over San Diego
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and the Cardinals have the superior pitcher on the mound Thursday night. The Padres have hit just .229 as a team lifetime against Lynn, and Lynn has pitched solid this season in night games with an ERA of just 2.84. Opponents have hit just .213 against Lynn in night games this season, and since the All-Star break Lynn has posted an ERA of just 1.99. The Cardinals have hit .284 as a team lifetime against Richards with an OBP of .363, and he has struggled at home this season with opponents hitting .308 against him.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ENGLAND -8½ over Kansas City
As the only mainstays, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have won five Super Bowl rings in seven attempts with a rotating door of players surrounding the 12-time Pro Bowler on the field. This year will be no different. The Patriots did what they always do this offseason after cutting ties with the likes of Martellus Bennet, LeGarrette Blount and Chris Long for reasons like money and age. They then addressed a true need with the signing of former Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who has yet to reach his potential as a true number one, but there is little doubt he'll be given every opportunity to shine under Belichick’s structured system. The Pats paid handsomely for Gilmore, something they rarely do, but if there was a weakness on this team in 2016 it was their inability to cover the other teams' top receivers, as they ranked 20th in DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average). The Pats had the most high profile injury in the preseason when they lost wide receiver Julian Edelman for the year but his loss is being blown out of proportion. We have little doubt that New England will be just fine with whoever slaps the pads on, as that has been their way in the BB/Brady era. Let's not forget this team won 11 games when Brady was sidelined in 2008. The Patriots went 14-2 last year and this year they’re personnel is improved.
The Football gods were smiling down on us when this opening night contest was announced. Pencil us in for an opportunity to fade Andy Reid in a high profile prime time game to kick off 2017. The Chiefs will get plenty of exposure this season with an NFL high six games scheduled in prime time. More importantly, the Chiefs are perceived as a quality team in this market so those big points look very appetizing. They may be fool's gold.
Last season, it looked like the stars were all aligned for the Chiefs to make their run. Quarterback Alex Smith was playing mistake free football and they were on the right side of some close games including a 29-28 win at Atlanta after Eric Berry took a two point conversion attempt by the Falcons back to the house. Kansas City also overcame a 21-point deficit in San Diego, a 17-point hole in Carolina and put together a game tying 75-yard touchdown drive including a two point conversion at Denver to win it in overtime, 30-27.
Perhaps the biggest slap in the face to the 2016 Chiefs was the field goal fest that ended in an 18-16 home playoff loss with Pittsburgh beating Kansas City at its own game behind six Chris Boswell kicks. Ol’ Andy never saw a field goal chance he didn’t like and last year that was more evident than ever. The Chiefs were brutal in the red zone ranking 28th in DVOA and 30th in goal-to-go situations. Another Reid specialty is passes at or behind the goal line, a stat the Chiefs led the NFL in again last season at 25%. The league average was 16% and no other team was over 22%. That’s what happens when you throw more screen passes to your wide receivers and tight ends than anybody else (68%, the next closest 50%). If the Chiefs need 10 yards in the red zone, Andy would rather dial up a short pass play that has no chance at a first down, kick his field goal and then head for the buffet.
The window is quickly closing on the duo of Reid and Smith but it’ll be Alex Smith being the odd man after Reid signed a four-year contract extension. To that point, the Chiefs were the first playoff team since 2006 to use their first round pick on a quarterback while returning their starter from the previous year, which is not exactly a vote of confidence in Smith from the front office. At the end of the day, the Chiefs kick FG's while the Patriots score TD's and by game's end, that will usually end up being a double-digit victory.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -1½ +138 over KANSAS CITY
Folks in Kansas City have a couple of choices tonight. Do they go to the ball game to watch one of 162 games or do they stay home to watch the Chiefs open up the NFL season against New England? The point is that the Royals will be playing to a small crowd tonight and those that are in attendance will be watching the football game on their phones. Aside from that, the recently cut Sam Gaviglio wil be making his first start for his new team.
Sam Gaviglio was claimed off waivers from Seattle by the Royals on Friday, Sept. 1. A four-start losing streak in which Gaviglio gave up 17 runs in 23 innings cost him his roster slot in Seattle. In this day and age of pitching desperate teams, you have to be pretty dreadful to be cut or put on waivers. Gaviglio started 11 games for Seattle and put up a 4.62 ERA with a nifty 48% groundball rate over 62 innings. However, he had a weak BB/K split of 21/40 in those 62 frames. That was his first taste of the majors and we've got a lot more minor league data that says Gaviglio is even worse. At 27 years old with a fastball that tops out at 88 mph, he's wasn’t exactly a top prospect either. This is a desperation pick-up for the Royals and so we’re in attack mode.
Enter the new Kyle Gibson. Gibson has been a perennial breakout target flop for a while now and given his mediocre stats and not so great underlying numbers for years and in each month prior to August, we can surely understand why not many are buying into his sudden success. We wouldn’t be buying it either but after looking under the hood, we’re convinced that something has finally clicked for Gibson. Gibson made some adjustments with his approach in August that transformed his numbers into impact-level status. He struck out 29 batters in 28 frames over his last five starts. His K’s/9 since the beginning of August is 9.1. That has the support of his elite 14% swing and miss rate over that span. Gibson is now throwing quality strikes. He has walked just five batters combined over his last five starts. When you combine great control, great strikeout numbers and an elite 52% groundball rate, you have a tremendous speculative play on a short priced starter here. Kyle Gibson has finally arrived.
SAN DIEGO +113 over St. Louis
After an exciting four-game series against the Dodgers last weekend in which the Padres lost the opener but won the next three, a letdown against the Cardinals is not a big surprise. Now the Papas have lost the first three games of this series and their stock is once again lower than it should be. The Padres have a young, exciting and competitive club that is 38-35 at home while the Cardinals are under .500 on the road. Clayton Richard owns some of the best skills in the game against LH batters with 9.9 K’s/9, 1.4 BB’s/9 and 67% groundballs. He also has a sub-3 ERA against them. The Cardinals feature a heavy right-handed lineup but that’s not going to prevent us from backing this live dog at home.
We’ve been fading Lance Lynn quite a bit this year and it hasn’t paid off yet. At some point, we’ll get paid back when Lynn starts because at some point his luck will run out. Over his last five starts covering 33 innings, Lynn has walked 16 and struck out 22 for a revolting ratio. His ERA over that span was 2.43 and it’s all because of his luck-fueled 86% strand rate over that stretch. It’s not just over that stretch though. Lynn has a 2.99 ERA this season with an 81% strand rate. His xERA is 4.82 and he also has an ugly first-pitch strike rate of 54%. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery typically struggle with command during the first year back so it’s no surprise to see Lynn deal with that issue in 2017. Given his middling skills and a hit%/strand% combo that is ripe for regression, Lance Lynn is an extremely risky bet for the rest of the season. He’s also overpriced almost daily because of his shiny ERA but this is not a 2.99 ERA starter.
Scott Rickenbach
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -107
The Orioles Kevin Gausman has been a different pitcher the past two months. He went 4-0 in July with a 3.63 ERA and though he went only 2-2 in August he had a 3.48 ERA for the month. Gausman then began September by going 6 scoreless innings in his first start of the month. The O's have been hotter than the Yankees and have been making a playoff push and while they have done a fair amount of winning in recent months with Gausman on the mound, the same can't be said for the Yankees and Sonny Gray. The right-hander is 0-3 on the road since coming to the Yankees and, keep in mind, Gray also was just 1-3 on the road during his time with Oakland earlier this season. Grab the value here with the home team at a pick'em price.
Brandon Lee
Cardinals vs. Padres
Play: Cardinals -123
St Louis leap frogged over the Brewers for 2nd in the NL Central, just 4 games back of Chicago. They are also a mere 2 back of Colorado for the final Wild Card spot and the Rockies are up against Clayton Kershaw tonight. This is a golden opportunity for the Cardinals to at worst make up ground in the Wild Card and they have the advantage on the mound in this one with Lance Lynn squaring off against Clayton Richard. Lynn has quietly won 10 games and posted a strong 2.99 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 28 starts and comes in with a 2.57 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Richard is 6-13 with a 4.94 ERA in 28 starts, owns a 4.93 ERA and 1.533 WHIP at home and a 5.78 ERA in his last 3 starts.