Mike Lundin
Cincinnati at New York
Play: Cincinnati -114
The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a three-game sweep of the Brewers, and I think they'll ride the momentum to another victory as they travel to the Big Apple to take on the Mets Thursday night.
The Mets hand the ball to Matt Harvey (4-4, 5.97 ERA). The injury-ridden 28 year old is starting for the second time since being activated from the disabled list last Saturday. He took the loss (12-8 ) against the Astros after giving up seven runs over just two innings, and I think the Reds will get to him early as well.
The Reds turn to rookie right-hander Tyler Mahle (0-1, 2.45 ERA) who will be making his third big league start since being promoted from Triple-A Louisville on Aug. 27. Mahle tossed six scoreless innings of five-hit ball at Pittsburgh on Sep. 9 and he should not have too much to fear from this Mets team.
The Mets are coming off a 6-3 win against the Phillies, but note that they're 1-7 in their last eight after scoring five runs or more in their previous game and 3-13 in their last 16 games following a win.
John Martin
Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +120
The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken two out of three games from the Chicago Cubs in this series to go 4-1 in their last five games overall. They still play for pride when they play the reigning World Series champs and would love to take Game 4 today to take the series. Jameson Taillon is 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA in 21 starts this year. He has a 0.90 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 1 earned run in 10 innings. Jon Lester has gone the other direction, going 1-1 with a 9.94 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in his last tree starts. He has been rocked for 11 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts. Lester has also allowed 16 runs, 9 earned, in 6 1/3 innings while losing each of his last two starts against the Pirates. Taillon is 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts against Chicago.
Dave Price
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City +100
This is a huge series for the Kansas City Royals in terms of their chances of making the playoffs. The Minnesota Twins are currently the 2nd wild card team in the AL, and the Royals trail them by just 2.5 games. They need to take at least 3 out of 4 games from the Twins, and it starts with Game 1 tonight. Kyle Gibson should not be favored here. He is 9-10 with 5.33 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 24 starts this year. Sam Gaviglio is 3-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 11 starts, but 1-2 with a 3.69 ERA in 6 home starts. The Royals are 15-3 in home games after batting .333 or better over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are 15-2 after scoring 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
Eric Schroeder
Love this division rivalry at SunTrust Park to soar into double digits, as I see a marathon in the opener of a four-game series between the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins.
disclaimer
Let's start with Straily, who in 13 road starts is 5-5 with a 4.62 ERA. And since the All-Star break, the right-hander has struggled with a 2-4 mark and 5.06 ERA. The Marlins are struggling as it is, too, so I think the Braves will get to him early.
Meanwhile, with Newcomb, walks and longevity continue to be a concern for the rookie left-hander. And in facing a team like the Marlins, who need victories while chasing the wild-card race, he could be doomed. The southpaw hasn't recorded an out in the sixth inning in any of his past three starts, while he's walked more than six batters per nine innings.
This one is going high.
5* Marlins-Braves Over
Tommy Brunson
My Thursday comp release is the Dodgers on the Run Line to finally win a game over the Colorado Rockies.
Los Angeles stands at 1-11 their last 12 games, and they have lost 6 in a row heading into this series with division-rival Colorado. The only win in that stretch comes when Clayton Kershaw was on the hill back on September 1st.
Colorado comes to La-La Land with just 3 wins in their last 9 games, and the Rockies are just 9-24 their last 33 games played away from Coors Field.
Los Angeles has won the past 3 season series meetings, and 6 of the last 8 series meetings against Colorado this year. The Dodgers are also 24-5 the last 29 times Kershaw has started against the Rockies.
As for Mr. Kershaw, he is 16-2 this year, and the Dodgers are 20-2 when he starts.
Hey, L.A. has to win sometime, don't they?
Tonight is that night.
Dodgers on the Run Line the Thursday call.
5* L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they once again turn to their ace, and hope he can stop the bleeding after a dismal series with the streaking Arizona Diamondbacks.
Kershaw makes his first home start since hurting his back on July 23, which then landed him on the disabled list. The southpaw has already put the back to the test, and showed no signs of rest in throwing six scoreless innings versus the San Diego Padres in his first start back off the disabled list.
Kershaw will get the run support he needs, as the Rockies hand the ball to Gray, who needed 100 pitches to navigate his way through five frames on Saturday. The right-hander's only runs came off a three-run homer in the first, but he still struggled with command and tonight he faces an angry lineup.
Dodgers win big.
3* DODGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Indians on the Run Line over the White Sox.
Very little mystery here, and while the juice is a little "steep", no choice but to play Cy Young candidate Carey Kluber and his sizzling team to control the White Sox.
Kluber stands at 14-4 for the season, and owns a 2.56 ERA to go along with his record. His team is in the midst of a 14-game winning streak - 6 straight wins coming by 2 runs or more - and is also on a 20-6 run on the road their last 25 games, and an overall run of 36-15 their last 51 games played!
Oh, did I mention that Cleveland has also won the last 3 series meetings, and 7 of the last 9 games played between these division-rivals!?!
The Pale Hose have managed just 2 wins in their last 9 games, and starter Carlos Rodon stands at 2-5 for the season.
Like I said, no mystery here....Cleveland by at least 2 runs!
4* CLEVELAND -1.5
Jack Brayman
While the Cleveland Indians are looking for a team-record 15th straight win, they'll trot Corey Kluber to the hill. Bad mix for the Chicago White Sox, as the Tribe are poised for another big win.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Kluber and Carlos Rodon. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
Kluber is 14-4 and comes into Thursday's start against the White Sox with an American League-leading 2.56 ERA and the league's lowest opponents' batting average (.194). The right-hander has arguably been the best pitcher the past five weeks, as he was named the American League Pitcher of the Month in August after going 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA.
He domination spilled into September, as he allowed one run in eight innings with seven strikeouts in Detroit on Saturday.
Take the Indians, as they win big.
1* INDIANS -1.5
Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Over 9.5
This game fits a powerful totals system we use that plays over for home teams that were road favorites at -135 or higher last night vs an opponent like the Twins that scored 10 or more runs as a +140 or higher road dog. These games have averaged over 11 runs per game since 2004. Gibson for the Twins has pitched over in his last 6 vs KC. Gaviglio has struggled of late and has been hit hard in his last 2 start elevating his Era to 4.62. In the series here in KC 6 of the last 7 have flown over. Look for more of the same tonight.
Joey Juice
My Thursday free play for you is the Chiefs and the Patriots to go Over the total.
Always bet over when Tom Brady is playing. Even in a snow storm!
There will be no snow storm in New England Thursday night, sorry Al Gore.
There will be a storm however, and that storm is Tom Brady.
NE adds deep threat Brandin Cooks just in the nick of time to make up for Edelman's absence. Gronk is back, Brady is 100%.
This one is going over the total.
2* KANSAS CITY-NEW ENGLAND OVER
VIC DUKE
Twins vs. Royals
Play: Twins -107
Royals had a brief patch in late August when they didn't score a run in four straight games; however, they've won 5 of their last 8 since. Nevertheless, I can't side with converted reliever Sam Gaviglio who was shipped in from Seattle. Gaviglio hasn't started since July 18th. His last two starts resulted in 12 ER in 10 2/3 IP. I don't expect him to last long tonight; after all, he rarely, if ever, turns in 6 innings. Therefore, more pressure put on the KC bullpen. On the other hand, the Twins counter with Kyle Gibson who is finding his form off three outstanding starts (1.37 ERA / 1.07 WHIP). Twins are 8-2 on the road with Gibson and they're 5-0 with him against KC including that 17-0 white washing September 2nd. We'll take the road savvy Twins here.
DOUG UPSTONE
Chiefs vs. Patriots
Play: Chiefs +9
New England opened up as touchdown favorite months ago and has been steadily rising in the last two weeks to -9 as of today. It is would seem nearly impossible to bet against the Patriots even at that many points and home teams on the first game of a new season played on a weekday are 9-3-2 ATS the last 14 years. However, not a fan backing any team by more than a touchdown in Week 1 and will have lean with Kansas City to cover.
FRANK JORDAN
Chiefs vs. Patriots
Play: Over 48.5
These two teams scored last season with New England scoring 27 points a game last year and Kansas City scoring 24 points. These teams also had solid defenses, but early in the season with no tape on the offenses yet they have the advantage. In their first three games the Patriots scored 27 points per game and Kansas City put up 23 points per game. Look for the offenses to click early and the defenses to make adjustments in the third quarter and a little more offense later to push the total over the 50 point mark as the winning team will have low 30's and the losing team will be in the mid 20's as there will be more touchdowns their field goals in this game.
Bruce Marshall
Twins at Royals
Pick: Over
When last seen, Sam Gaviglio was pitching for Seattle in early July and getting battered, losing his last four starts. Demoted after a July 18 loss in Houston, Gaviglio now surfaces for the Royals. Minnesota should be able to do some business at the plate, and though pitching better lately, most of Kyle Gibson's starts for the Twins this season have been "over" results.
Bob Balfe
Cubs -130
The Cubs have looked good and are starting to get back to their original lineup right in time for the postseason. This team is locked in and on their way to winning the division. The Cubs have the better pitching matchup tonight and the Pirates are just not that great against left handed pitching. Look for Lester to be in total control this evening.