Free Picks for Tuesday, December 20th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
MEMPHIS VS. WESTERN KENTUCKY
PLAY: WESTERN KENTUCKY -5.5
At first glance, Memphis-Western Kentucky looks like a game where both teams will move up and down the field at will and score an enormous number of points. Okay, it looks that way at second glance as well.
For me, the key to success here is finding the team that will at least get occasional stops, and I think that will be Western Kentucky. I know this is beating an old horse, but it’s sure not a dead horse. Find the team that wins the rushing stats in these bowl games, and there’s a good chance you’ll find the team that wins the game.
Day One of this year’s bowls saw UTSA outrush New Mexico. Not by much, but the Roadrunners did win that category and while they lost the game, UTSA was the spread winner. San Diego State completely shut down the Houston running game, and the Aztecs ended up as a blowout winner. Appalachian State dominated the ground game stats, and the Mountaineers won and covered. Neither Arkansas State nor Central Florida garnered much of anything overland, but the Red Wolves did win the rushing stats and they were easy winners. The only miss was UL Lafayette, which earned a slim edge over Southern Miss on the ground, but it was the Golden Eagles that won and got the money.
As for this Boca Raton Bowl, I fully expect Western Kentucky to win the ground game stats, and it might not be close. Memphis has surrendered 200 yards per game and an average of five yards per carry. The Hilltoppers are allowing only 3.0 yards per attempt and 99 yards per game. That is a big advantage on the Western Kentucky side.
The one argument that holds some water is that the Tigers had to face a more arduous schedule playing in the rugged AAC as opposed to the not so well respected CUSA. But I’ll counter with Alabama. For what it’s worth, the best team in the country had its lowest rushing output of the entire season against the Hilltoppers. Alabama was able to muster only 3.2 yards per carry in that game. The Tide’s second lowest output was 4.2 against LSU.
That’s the big key for me in this bowl game. I think there’s a good chance the Hilltoppers can force the Tigers to be a bit more one dimensional than they’d like. I don’t see Memphis being able to impose its will to that extent on the Hilltoppers. I’ll ride the rushing stats profile again here and will back Western Kentucky minus the points.
DAVE COKIN
PACERS AT KNICKS
PLAY: KNICKS -5.5
The Pacers earned a close victory on Monday night as they edged the Wizards by a couple of points. That sets up a play against Indiana tonight as they journey to Madison Square Garden for a meeting with the Knicks.
Indiana has had problems on the back end of two games in two nights for some time now, and there record in this scenario this season couldn’t be much worse. The Pacers have also been horrible playing on the road off a win. They’re 0-8 in this role, and that’s both straight up and against the number.
The Knicks are happy to be home following a five-game swing that started off well and ended poorly. New York topped the Kings and Lakers to open the trip, but lost to the Suns, Warriors and Nuggets. They should be thrilled to be back at the Garden, where the Knicks own a solid 9-4 slate to this point.
New York should have Derrick Rose back on the floor tonight. But the Pacers will again be without Monta Ellis and perhaps Rodney Stuckey. Those injuries are notable because Indiana is not a deep team and their starting five logged a load of minutes on Monday.
There’s always a little worry with a team just back home off a long road trip. But at least the recent history for New York is pretty good as far as this goes. Plus, they’ve had a couple days to get settled back in off the left coast swing, so I’m not overly concerned with it here. I’m on the Knicks to get the job done tonight.
Sleepyj
Jazz / Warriors Under 210
I like the under in this one tonight...Both teams come in well rested and the defense should be just fine here...Last time these teams met up in Utah they both shot rather well...Well i expect them to struggle here a few times tonight....Jazz defense is rather good and Golden St. hasn't played much defense this far this year...This is another test for them to do so....These teams just played about a week and a half ago and the otal went under this current number...They scored 205 points in the last contest....Plenty off assists and a ton of 3 point shots in that game by both teams....Jazz actually shot 9 more 3 point shots than the Warriors...I expect them to go hard in paint in this one, creating a slower game on that end and defending the points in transition....Fast break points last game was rather low for both teams combined...Only 23 and that is the area the Jazz step up in...So more inside game from them will limited the Warriors fast break stuff....Utah got better as the game went on defending the Warriors and the Jazz got better swell if the Jazz come out knowing what the Warriors like to do and they had success slowing them down the more they saw them, then the Warriors will have no choice but to play defense....I think we see a game in the high 190's...
Jack Jones
Spurs vs. Rockets
Play: Spurs +1
The San Antonio Spurs are well-rested and ready to go tonight. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will give the Houston Rockets their best effort. That's especially the case after a couple of hard-fought battles with the Rockets already this season, and their hunger to put an end to Houston's current 10-game winning streak.
The Rockets' streak should have come to an end at Minnesota on Saturday, but they managed to overcome a 13-point deficit entering the 4th quarter to win 111-109 in overtime. I don't think the Rockets will be as fortunate this time around against this Spurs team that is 22-5 overall, including a sensational 14-1 in road games.
Houston has an injury here that is getting overlooked. Clint Capela is the glue guy for this team as he does all of the dirty work inside, but he suffered a broken fibula in the game against the Timberwolves. He averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. The Rockets are already a perimeter-oriented team, but they will be even more so moving forward without him. Look for the Spurs to punish the Rockets in the paint in this game.
The Spurs won 106-100 in Houston earlier this season. They are now 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days' rest. San Antonio is 42-23 ATS in its last 65 games vs. poor defensive teams who allow 103 or more points per game on the season.
Sean Murphy
Blue Jackets -145
The Blue Jackets still aren't getting the respect they deserve from the betting marketplace.
Columbus keeps rolling along, having won nine games in a row heading into this contest. The Jackets are catching the Kings in a favorable spot here as L.A. is in the midst of a long road trip that has seen it split four games so far.
Note that the Kings are just 6-9-1 on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have gone 10-3-1 at home.
The Kings have taken the last two meetings in this series, including a 3-2 home win back in October. Both of those victories came in overtime, however. Look for the Blue Jackets to exact a little revenge in this one.
Bob Harvey
Rockets -1
The Houston Rockets go for their 11th straight victory when they host the San Antonio Spurs. The two Texas Teams square off at 8 PM ET at the Toyota Center where Houston is favored by -1. The total is 214.5.
The Spurs (22-5, 14-12 ATS) have won four straight contests and 17 of their last 19. San Antonio is an NBA-best 14-1 on the road as it opens a three-game road trip that includes games against the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers. The Spurs averaged 114.5 points while winning their last four contests, including a 113-100 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday. Tony Parker has posted double-digit scoring totals in each of the past four games and San Antonio is 10-0 this season when he scores 10 or more points.
Despite their lengthy winning streak, the Rockets (21-7, 19-9 ATS) remain 1.5 games behind the Spurs in the Southwest Division. Houston has joined the NBA craze of shooting three’s. It connected on 17 3-pointers in the victory over Minnesota to extend a of couple NBA records -- five consecutive games with 15 or more 3-pointers and 27 straight contests with 10 or more.
The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 series meetings. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-0 ATS in their past four games. They’re 2-6 ATS in the last eight games in Houston.
The Rockets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Houston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. the Western Conference.
The Spurs are 5-0 to the UNDER and 7-1 to the low side in the past eight games in Houston.
The Rockets are 7-0 to the UNDER in their last seven against the NBA Southwest and 4-1 vs. the Western Conference.
Jim Feist
Utah at Golden State
Play: Under 211.5
The Utah Jazz are a strong defensive team, tops in the NBA in points allowed and field goal shooting defense. Utah is on a 4-1 run under the total, and the under is 3-0-1 when the Jazz face a team with a winning straight up record. The Warriors are also a strong defensive team, fourth in field goal shooting defense. Utah is on a 7-0 run under the total, 20-8-1 under against a team with a winning straight up record. And the Under is 21-7-2 in the last 30 meetings, including 11-3-1 under at Golden State.
Rob Vinciletti
Ottawa vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago -170
Chicago hosts Ottawa tonight and they have some solid angles in their favor. Chicago has won 5 straight with 1 day of rest. 5-1 on Tuesdays and 6-1 after allowing 2 or less goals last out. Ottawa has lost 12 of 17 playing a 3rd in 4 nights. The Senators are 1-5 the last 6 vs Western Conference games. In the series here in Chicago the Senators have lost 7 straight.
David Banks
Creighton @ Arizona St
Pick: Creighton -8.5
Creighton continues its return to college basketball’s elite when it travels to Arizona State to take on the Sun Devils (6-5) on Tuesday night. The Bluejays, now 11-0, are ranked No. 10 in the nation. Tuesday’s game will be their last before heading into conference play in the final week of December.
Head coach Greg McDermott cannot afford a letdown as the Bluejays prepare for Big East play. They almost had one on Saturday night when they had to rally to beat Oral Roberts 66-65. Guard Marcus Foster scored 22 points to lead Creighton to victory. Foster is the team’s leading scorer averaging 18.2 points per game. Point guard Maurice Foster adds 13.1 points and a team-high 9.2 assists a game.
The Bluejays’ three-guard lineup will face a Sun Devils team that is similar in style. Guards Torian Graham (16.5 ppg), Shannon Evans II (16.1), and Tra Holder (15.6) lead Arizona State in scoring. What the Sun Devils lack is a dominant inside presence. Obinna Oleka is 6-8 and averages 12.1 points and 9.8 rebounds a game, but he might not be a match for the Bluejays freshman 7-footer Justin Patton (11.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg).
McDermott would like nothing more than to get a big win on the road before beginning Big East play next week. Creighton will face Seton Hall (9-2) on Dec. 28 and then take on the nation’s No. 1 team, Villanova, on New Year’s Eve.
Jimmy Boyd
Pelicans -3½
I really like the value here with New Orleans as a small road favorite against the 76ers. The Pelicans have started out just 9-20, but the slow start is a direct result of them missing key players with injury. Starting point guard Jrue Holiday has only played in 14 games (just 8 starts) and their best shooting guard, Tyreke Evans has just recently returned to the lineup. Not only are those two back in the mix, but rookie Buddy Heild is starting to come on (3 straight games in double-figures). I look for this Pelicans team to be a great team to back going forward, starting with tonight's games against Philadelphia.
The 76ers are still waiting on the debut of Ben Simmons and at the moment are struggling to figure out how to divide up the minutes between their 3 big men. On top of that, the trio is also struggling to figure out how to play together. The big problem is they don't have the guard play to set them up and until Simmons gets back, I look for their losing ways to continue.
Given their slow start and the fact that the Pelicans lost 88-99 at home to the 76ers earlier this month, we can count on a big effort here.
Stephen Nover
Pelicans -3
The Pelicans have revenge for an embarrassing 99-88 home loss to the 76ers just 12 days ago and want desperately to salvage a win on this last leg of a three-game road trip. New Orleans is stepping way down in class after consecutive losses to the Spurs and Rockets during the first two games of its road trip. New Orleans didn't have Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans in their earlier meeting with the 76ers. Now both are back. The Pelicans are a much better team when Holiday plays because it allows Tim Frazier to come off the bench while greatly improving the team's guard depth. If the Pelicans are serious about being a Western Conference playoff contender they can't be losing to the 76ers. New Orleans has a history of faring well against Eastern Conference opponents covering six of the past seven times versus them. The 76ers have promising big men Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel. However, they are all dwarfed by Anthony Davis, the best big man in the game.
Brandon Powell
Predators vs. Devils
Play: Devils -104
The Devils will be happy to be returning home after playing 8 of their last 10 on the road. The Devils have found a lot of success at home this season where they have gotten 8 of their 12 wins. They have also taken 3 of the last 4 meetings against Nashville. The Predators struggle on the road where they have gotten 9 of their 12 losses. Nashville is also playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Look for a well rested and motivated New Jersey team to beat the Predators tonight.
Brandon Lee
Nuggets vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -7½
I think we are getting some great value here with LA at home against the Nuggets. Denver comes in having won and covered in 3 straight games, but all 3 came at home against average or below average teams. The most recent coming last night against the Mavs, where all 5 starters played 33 or more minutes. I just don't see the Nuggets having the energy here in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road against a motivated Clippers team that is not happy about a recent 110-117 loss at Washington.
LA will be without Blake Griffin, which I think is keeping this line lower than it should be. If you remember back to last season, the Clippers went 31-16 without Griffin last season. This team knows how to play well without their star power forward and a lot of that has to do with the talent at the point guard position with Chris Paul. He took his game to another level last year when Griffin got hurt and will do the same this year.
Cal Sports
Georgia at Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia -3.5
This annual in-state rivalry saw has seen the home teams win 12 of the last 15 games including the last two. Georgia Tech however won and covered 4 straight prior to last season when Georgia beat them at home 75-61 as a 1 point favorite. Both teams are 3-3 ATS on the season with Georgia posting a 7-3 straight-up record and Tech posting a 6-3 mark.
The Georgia Bulldogs lost their opener to Clemson as well games versus Kansas and Marquette however they did cover versus the Jayhawks (+13.5, lost 65-54). UGA’s best win came versus George Washington (N, -4.5 won 81-73). Georgia may be as deep as any team as ten players average 11 or minutes and two more average over 7 minutes per game. The scoring however, is a two man show as Yante Maten averages 21.5 PPG (also 8.7 rebounds/game) while JJ Frazier adds 14.4 PPG.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have been an underdog 4 times this season including at home versus Ohio, a game they lost. GT also lost games at Penn St and Tennessee losing by 7 points as a 6 pt dog and by 23 pts as a 5 pt dog. Tech’s best win was two games ago on December 7th when they travelled to Virginia Commonwealth and pulled the 76-73 upset as a 15 pt underdog. The Yellow Jackets use an eight player rotation with the top 7 all playing over 20 minutes per game with Ben Lammers, Josh Okogie, Tadric Jackson and Quinton Stephens all scoring between 11.7 and 15.3 PPG while Lammers also adds 11 rebounds/gm and 4.2 blocks/gm.
Georgia Tech first year head coach Josh Pasnter has deemphasized this rivalry game wanting his players to feel very game is as important as this one. We’ll see how that pans out as the Bulldogs are always fired up for their rival. The stats are almost identical on both sides of the ball with the difference being that Georgia has faced a top 100 schedule while Tech is at #280. Expect the Bulldogs to earn only their third win in McCamish Pavilion since 2000.