Nelly
Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky -6.5
Most thought Western Kentucky might slide this season after completing a perfect 9-0 2015 campaign in Conference USA but losing a lot of key veterans on both sides of the ball. The Hilltoppers wound up 10-3 with a second straight conference title and three strong seasons with a 30-10 record made head coach Jeff Brohm a very attractive candidate and he has landed at Purdue. Defensive coordinator Nick Holt will lead the team in this bowl game but there is uncertainty ahead for the players and staff with Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Sanford hired to take over the program. Despite very little experience Mike White threw 34 touchdowns against just six interceptions this season and the Hiltoppers had much more balance this season with a rushing attack that produced 5.3 yards per rush led by huge numbers from senior Anthony Wales. Western Kentucky maintained steady defensive numbers but still got caught in several shootouts which looks like the likely scenario for this bowl game. Similar to Western Kentucky Memphis was pegged for a step-back season losing head coach Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech and quarterback Paxton Lynch to the Denver Broncos. With a bowl win Memphis can match last season’s 9-4 record as the Tigers competed well in a strong AAC including being the only team to be the eventual champion Temple while also beating Houston in the season finale. The statistics do paint a clear edge for the Hilltoppers who may be a bit undervalued given the coaching situation and Memphis didn’t handle shootouts well with a 1-4 record when allowing 35+ with Western Kentucky scoring 45 points per game on average, 2nd nationally.
Wunderdog
Cal Poly SLO @ Washington
Pick: Under 159
Cal Poly has stayed UNDER the total in five of its last six lined games. The lone game that went OVER was by a half-point in its 81-55 loss at California on Saturday. The Mustangs shot a horrific 32.3 percent from the field and Kyle Toth was their leading scorer with just 14 points with Ridge Shipley and Victor Joseph adding 12 points apiece. Cal Poly is averaging just 66.9 points per game and a .414 field goal percentage. Washington averages 86.5 points, but as with the case with California, will be hard-pressed to help this game go OVER the total by itself. The Huskies snapped a four-game losing streak with a 92-86 win over Western Michigan with Markelle Fultz scoring a team-leading 27 points with eight rebounds. The posted total is too high in this matchup, so play the UNDER.
Ken Thomson
Arizona St +8.5
Line moving the way of Creighton.....not a great ASU team for Hurley but they do play much better games in Tempe. If Creighton plays the way they did the other night vs. Oral Roberts the Sun Devils cover easy. Arizona State lost their last game at home by 11 vs. New Mexico State and won their last road game by 11 at San Diego State. Graham, Evans & Holder all need to produce for the Devils to hang with McDermott's Blue Jays who held on for that one point win vs. Oral Roberts in their last game. Foster is a beast for the Jays at better than 18 ppg and needs to be slowed down big time. Hurley should have the kids ready who are done with tests so it should be hoops on the brain and that's it!!!
Vegas Butcher
Portland Trailblazers +1.5
I've discussed numerous times that Portland is a 2-player team: Lillard and McCollum. They really don't have much quality besides these two. Well, tonight they'll face a team that only has one key-player: DeMarcus Cousins. (Rudy Gay is out) And this player has recently embarrassed himself with his behavior towards reporters. This being the first home game since that became public, I wonder how the fans will react. I think it's pretty clear by now that Cousins is a volatile head-case who is as big of a diva as they come in the NBA. If I was a fan of the Kings (I'm not), I wouldn't want to cheer for someone like that. It's hard to see a lot of effort from the team and a lot of support from the fans in this game. On the other side, Portland is coming off the most embarrassing game of the season, losing by 45 points to the Warriors. After the game, Lillard went off in the locker room, and the rest of the players seemed to have agreed with his assessment of the team's performance. Expecting a stronger effort tonight should be a given. I think Portland won't just be a 'better' team on the floor, they'll also be the more motivated squad in this one.
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is on the ice, as I back the Blackhawks at home to skate past the Senators by at least a pair of goals.
I don't think this one will be close.
Goalie Scott Darling has proved his mettle stepping in for Corey Crawford, and the 'Hawks play this one riding a 5 game winning streak. In those 5 victories, Chicago has outscored their opponents 20-11, and have won their last pair of games by at least 2 goals.
Ottawa has shaken off their 3 game slide with a pair of wins their last 2 times on ice, but their mark in Chicago is not a favorable one, as the Sens have lost their last 7 skates in the Windy City. Last year's meeting in Chitown saw the Blackhawks blank the Senators, 3-0.
I say lay the goal-and-a-half as Chicago's hot run continues with Darling in the pipes.
3* CHICAGO -1.5
Eric Schroeder
I won't bore you with mundane details on tonight's free winner, as it comes down to overall common sense with this one, and taking the better team.
Charlotte is comendable, and has a 6-4 mark on the season, but to contend with a team like the Terrapins is asking a lot - especially away from home. And when you see the type of points the 49ers are giving up, this game could get out of hand real quick.
Charlotte allows 79.8 points per game - a vast difference from the 66.5 the Terps yield - and when on the road, the Niners allow a whopping 88.3.
That will be the big difference, as I expect to see Maryland put up big numbers offensively.
3* MARYLAND
Brett Atkins
Tuesday comp play comes in the NBA on the Pelicans as the road favorite over the host 76ers.
Quick turnaround for these teams who did met in New Orleans on the 8th of this month, as Philly stunned New Orleans by double-digits as the +6 1/2 point underdog.
No sweep tonight though, as the Pelicans gain their same month revenge.
After double-digit road losses at Houston and San Antonio their last 2 games, things do get a little easier for New Orleans as they face the 7-20 Sixers tonight.
Philly has failed their last 4 against the spread at home, and even though New Orleans is only 9-20 for the year, I will lay the small road wood with them to avoid the season series sweep.
Take the Pelicans minus the points.
1* NEW ORLEANS
DAVE PRICE
Los Angeles Lakers +8.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are now almost fully healthy and showing some good line value tonight. They had lost eight in a row both straight up and ATS while battling through injuries. But then they returned all their key pieces and beat the 76ers 100-89 on the road. The next night they gave Cleveland a run for its money in a 108-119 road loss, covering as 15-point dogs. The Lakers have now had 2 days off and will be re-energized tonight against the Hornets. This is a bad spot for the Hornets as they are playing their first home game following a 5-game road trip in which they went 1-4. The Hornets are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Charlotte.
SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis +218 over WKU
This has all the makings to be a gun-slinging duel between two of the nation’s most potent offenses within their respective conferences. What you have here is two teams that sit in the top-17 in scoring offense per game. Western Kentucky averages 45.1 points per game and is 2nd overall nationally while the Tigers score a remarkable 39.5 points per game. In addition, both teams love to throw the football while leaving the defense at home. Both teams’ defense ranks low but let’s get away from all those numbers and focus on what’s important, which is what is always more important and that’s value. The reaction on Western Kentucky is likely rooted in their recent and successful defense of the Conference-USA title when they dispatched Louisiana Tech before a national audience. Tech is another team that plays no defense and WKU happened to have the ball last. In an earlier meeting against Louisiana Tech, WKU didn't have the ball last and lost 55-52.
The Tigers have more or less floated under the radar despite finishing 8-4 in the post-Paxton Lynch and Justin Fuente era. That’s an accolade the Tigers must be proud of, considering they defeated the incumbent American Conference Champion Houston in their regular season finale. To bolster Memphis’ achievements, the Tigers also found a way to hang 34 on the AAC’s best defense and now sitting champion Temple. The Tigers played a very difficult schedule that included games against then #16 Ole Miss, Temple, then #24 Navy, Tulsa (who crushed CMU yesterday in the Miami Beach Bowl, 55-10), USF, who finished 10-2, Cincinnati and Houston but don't think that the Tigers are satisfied because they're not.
Meanwhile, Western Kentucky has amassed their numbers against teams such as FAU, FIU, North Texas, Houston Baptist, Rice, Old Dominion and Marshall. The Hilltoppers do not have a notable win on their schedule. Memphis is no cupcake while Western Kentucky has more or less been feasting on cupcakes since putting the wood to ODU in October. That suggests that the favorite is close to hitting their spike in their sugar rush before crashing on the couch. Frankly, we’re not seeing why WKU is favored here, let alone favored by 7. Take the points if you like, we're calling the dog to win outright and will play it that way.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +138 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers are getting far too much credit here. Florida has three wins in its last 11 games and those three victories occurred against Colorado, Detroit and Vancouver. Combined that trio is 8-22 over their past 30 games combined. The Panthers also return home from a three-game trip here through Minnesota, Winnipeg and Colorado and they have had three full days off since. What we’re seeing in this year’s condensed schedule is teams coming up very flat after more than one or two full days off. A game against Buffalo just before Christmas will draw little interest in that region, thus, the BB&T Center in Sunrise will be three quarters empty. Atmosphere matters and so does current form. The Panthers are fighting hard to win but they’re beatable on their best day. Florida has four wins in 16 games against the top-16 teams in the NHL.
The Sabres are healthy. They’re coming off a strong effort in Carolina, where they lost in OT but held the ‘Canes to a mere 22 shots on net. Zach Bogosian is back on defense, which really solidifies an already decent blueline. The Sabres will run out three legit scoring lines. Buffalo’s woes this year are mainly due to man-games lost or a depleted lineup while posting the second worst shooting percentage in the NHL. Shooting percentage is a luck driven stat that evens out over time. Quietly, Buffalo has picked up points in seven of its last nine games. That includes victories over the Rangers, Kings and Oilers and OT losses to Washington and Carolina. The Sabres have been undervalued all year and now the market has not adjusted to several key players being back in the lineup. Once again we’ll try to take advantage.
Anaheim +155 over MONTREAL
OT included. The Canadiens are favored by this much because the market puts way too much emphasis on perceived fatigue. There’s also the Carey Price factor. The Ducks played in Toronto last night and will now play their fifth straight on the road. The Ducks will also play their eighth game since December 7 and their third game in four days here. We’re not in the least bit concerned because we’ve seen teams very sharp under these conditions all season long. We’ve even heard several color analysts comment on it during the telecasts and we’re paying attention. Two or three days off between games seems to have a more negative effect than playing frequently or back-to-back. The Ducks played a strong game in Toronto last night and now have five wins over their last seven games. We don’t see them letting up here against an injury riddled Montreal team that is missing some key pieces.
Montreal is just 4-5 over its past nine games and have been sitting idle since Saturday’s victory in Washington. However, the Habs have had nothing but trouble against these heavy teams from the Pacific like San Jose, Los Angeles and Anaheim. Against that trio this season and last, Montreal is 2-7 over the past nine games and it sure doesn’t help that a player like Andrew Shaw is out because his net presence and physical play will be missed in games of this nature. The Habs are 14-2-2 at home this year. They have Carey Price and they’re also rested. Combine those three things together and you get an inflated price. However, Montreal is in line for a correction to the bad in its own arena. The price suggests the Ducks chances of winning aren't very good but the Ducks are in better form, they're healthier and they also have several analytical adavantages too. Of course Anaheim can win this one.
Calgary +180 over SAN JOSE
OT included. There is too much value here on the Flames to let this one slide by. For one, the Sharks return home from a four-game trip on the East Coast, which is unfavorable right off the bat. Meanwhile, the Flames have won six of their last eight and are coming off a 4-2 win last night in Arizona. In the second period of last night’s game, Arizona did not get a shot on net until there was one minute remaining. Let’s put all that aside however and focus in once again on the value.
These two teams know each other well. They both reside in the Pacific Division, which means they see each other frequently. They have only met once this year, which turned out to be a Calgary win by a score of 3-2. The last four games between the two have all been one goal victories with each team winning twice. In the last nine games between the two, Calgary has won six times and in its three losses, two of them were by a single goal. We should also point out that in most of those games, Calgary had a huge disadvantage in goal. For whatever reason, the Flames give the Sharks trouble regardless of situation or current form. Coming into this one, Calgary is in very good form and they’re in a favorable spot too. Add in the huge price on the Flames and it becomes a must play.
SPORTS WAGERS
Portland St +8 over PORTLAND
The Portland/Portland State rivalry has been a series of ebbs of flows for these two cross-city combatants. The Pilots have won their last four against the Vikings after they ended State’s five-game winning streak preceding it. Spanning the last 10, both sides are owners of five wins a piece. Before simply going with the popular and trendy pick here, we had a pretty good look at the analytics surrounding the two teams in this affair.
While Portland has the better record on paper at 7-3, they have been the benefactors of some “lucky wins”. According to KenPom, the Pilots have been the 27th luckiest team in the country, which means that the 7-3 record they sport is a bit of a farce. Look no further than Portland’s overtime escape against the Texas Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros who sit at 5-9 on the year. Portland has also played a weaker schedule than Portland State, as their docket ranks 194th nationally compared to State whose itinerary ranks 145th.
For Portland State, they have had a reverse effect take place in their contests as they embody the complexion of a snake-bitten dog. The Vikings have had some hard luck losses to validate their 135th luck rating. These factors materialized into what you would expect to see with both outfits when the variables are offset and they produce more raw results: Portland State winning outright as a significant pooch in their last two, where they were undervalued and Portland being tarred and feathered when they were an apparent underpriced underdog. Both teams combined have gone 4-1 in their previous five but it seems here that Portland is in line for some attrition while Portland State is due to bolster their resume with some wins.
A rivalry game is the perfect stage for the Vikings to turn around their fortune. They have some confidence coming in with recent road wins over Pepperdine and San Francisco. It’s also worth noting that the Vikings are comfortable on the road. They’re 5-4 overall with six of those nine games being on the road. By contrast, the Pilots have played one road game this year, which occurred way back on November 15 in their second game of the season. Traveling means hanging out with teammates for extended periods of time and building up a good repertoire while playing at home every game means everyone goes home after practices and games. The Pilots are have not been able to pull away from weak opponents and this one is a fair fight straight up. much larger. The Chips also have another redeeming quality, which is the ability to come in through the back door.
Power Sports
Cal Poly SLO vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
Washington has not found success at the betting window (0-5 ATS L5), but at least they were able to get back into the win column on Sunday w/ a 92-86 win over Western Michigan here in Seattle. (Those schools would make for a far more compelling matchup on the football field). The Huskies shot 57% from the floor two days ago w/ Markelle Fultz leading the way w/ a near triple double. The win came on the heels of a two-point loss to Nevada. This team has definitely had its issues defensively, but there have been times when they've stepped up at that end of the floor. All of those times came at home.
Cal Poly is now w/o its third leading scorer (Josh Martin) due to a stress fracture. This is the third time this season that the Mustangs have dropped B2B games. While they've responded w/ a SU win in each of the two previous instances, Washington is a far taller order than either UTSA or Cal State Dom Hills. The Huskies may not be as strong as Cal, but they will be able to exploit the same advantages their Pac 12 brethren did the other night.
Harry Bondi
WESTERN KENTUCKY -7 over Memphis
The only team to hold Western Kentucky’s offense in check this year was Alabama. Against all other competition, the Hilltoppers averaged 39 points per game. Western’s QB Mike White is a great one running an offense that is ranked fifth nationally averaging 337 passing yards per game. Memphis offense is also strong but their defense is a sieve and despite the fact that Hilltoppers Head Coach Jeff Brohm is off to Purdue, Western Kentucky scores early and often tonight.