Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, December 27th, 2016

Jason Sharpe

North Texas (+10) over Army

This is a big number to cover here for Army. The Black Knights have had a solid season, but they've been overrated throughout most of the year. The biggest evidence of this is the fact they won just 2 of their last 7 games against FBS teams coming into this one. Those two wins also had some question marks next to them as they beat a tired Navy team playing for the eighth straight week in a row and missing their starting quarterback while Army had two extra weeks to prepare for the big rivalry game against the Midshipmen. The Black Knights other win during this stretch came against Wake Forest as Army had to come back in the fourth quarter to steal the win from the Demon Deacons. One of their losses was against this North Texas team that they face off against here in this game as the Mean Green coasted to an easy 35-18 victory over Army.

Marco D'Angelo

Baylor vs, Boise St
Play: Baylor +8

Baylor enters this Bowl Game on a 6 game losing streak after winning their 1st 6 games. This Baylor team never recovered from their 1 point loss to Texas. However Baylor did put up a fight in their last game of the season losing by just 3 as a 17 point underdog to a very good WVU team. Boise St although 10-2 SU wasn’t their dominating self going just 3-9 ATS. Vegas and the public still treat Boise St like the teams from the past when Peterson was the head coach and thus they are not covering these big spreads. Motivation is always a tricky part of handicapping the bowls and trying to figure if Baylor is going to show up is tough but I am going to say they do and here’s why. Baylor played with heart in season finale trying to finish 7-5 instead of 6-6 so I think they show up here as they don’t want to be the class that has a losing record. The players that are not graduating will also want to show the new coach what they can do. This hiring isn’t because their coach bolted to a better job but rather this hiring is to move the program forward from the lame duck situation it had with the interim coach all season in wake of the firing of Art Briles just before the season began. So if we do indeed have a motivated Baylor team we are getting a team from a Power 5 conference as an underdog to Boise St from the Mountain West Conference and that's a huge difference in talent. Too much value here with Baylor.

Bryan Leonard

North Texas +10.5

While we highly respect the military teams this has to be a letdown situation for the Black Knights. After knocking off Navy for the first time is a great while they now have to face a team it already played in the regular season. In that game Army lost the turnover battle by six and was outgained 6.4-4.5 yards per play in a 35-18 loss at home to North Texas. While the revenge angle is certainly there, we can't see any other reason to back Army here.

North Texas won just a single game last year until Seth Littrell took over in Denton. A program that had just one winning season the past decade is now in a bowl. The last time the Mean Green went bowling was in 2013 and it crushed UNLV in this very same Heart of Dallas Bowl. Motivation and the line have us backing North Texas here to pull off the sweep of Army.

Power Sports

Thunder at Heat
Pick: Over

Russell Westbrook may very well end up averaging a triple double this year, but the team's offensive efficiency has taken a significant hit. They are down to a very average 15th place ranking in that department, though the rebounding rate (3rd) remains strong. That all being said, the Over is 3-0-1 their last four games (push coming on Christmas) and by their standards, this is a low total. Remember, the Thunder still average 107.0 PPG. On the road, they allow a troubling 108.4 PPG.

Miami has not played since Friday when they lost at New Orleans, 91-87. Though the L5 meetings vs. OKC have all stayed Under, I would not expect that low scoring of an affair here. Even by the Heat's perspective, this is a pretty low total. Only one of their last 12 games has has a total sub-200 points and they are allowing 102.6 PPG at home already.

DAVE COKIN

ROCKETS AT MAVERICKS
PLAY: ROCKETS -6

Pretty simple reasoning for me on this play.

The Rockets bear little similarity to recent editions as this team has a far better work ethic than it did the past couple of seasons. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Houston is a more determined entry with Dwight Howard no longer on the roster.

One indicator of how things are now different for the Rockets is how well this team has performed on the back end of a two games in two nights segment. That’s when effort kicks in, and I’m very impressed with Houston’s 6-0 record in this scenario, which includes five spread wins.

Dallas is at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Mavericks are not good and their lack of quality depth has largely doomed them when forced to play without rest. The Mavs have dropped all five games when playing for a second straight evening, and only covered the spread once in that quintet.

The Rockets had a very easy time of it on Monday night against Phoenix and were able to spread out the minutes accordingly. So I don’t see fatigue as any kind of factor here and without some kind of advantage it’s really tough for me to make a case for the Mavericks being able to hang for 48 against a clearly superior opponent. I’m willing to spot the points in this game with the Rockets.

Brandon Shively

Army vs. North Texas
Play: Army -10½

It’s rare when you have a College Bowl game being a rematch from earlier in the year. Well, that’s what we have here and I like Army to get their revenge from losing to North Texas 35-18 earlier this year. Did North Texas outplay Army? No, Army just had a bad game. The weather conditions were bad and they had 7 turnovers! Yes, 7 turnovers, is the reason they lost that game.

After beating Navy, which was HUGE for the school and making their first bowl appearance since 2010, I feel Army will be super motivated for this game and adding fuel to their motivation is revenge from that loss.

There are several key statistical edges in our favor. Army ranks 4th in the nation in total defense at only 281 yards a game. They rank 17th against the run at only 124 yards a game and 4 yards a carry. They held Navy to only 201 total yards. It’s a wonder North Texas made it to a bowl game. They rank 118th in total offense and 116th in yards per play. Army ranks 64th in yards per play at 5.81. The North Texas defense gives up 6 yards a play, 87th in the nation. They give up 5.1 yards a carry and 219 yards a game on the ground. That is very bad news against an Army team that goes for 5.5 yards every time they run the ball and convert 46.5% of their 3rd downs on the season. In Army’s wins this year, they have converted 59.7% on 3rd downs. I am betting Army to win this game obviously and to keep those chains moving. In their wins, they have converted 18 of 20 times in the red zone for scores, 16 for touchdowns.

Army only allows a 37% conversion rate on 3rd downs. Really, Army had a two game stretch against Air Force and Notre Dame where they played bad. Other than that, they have outgained all of their other opponents.

North Texas got outgained by 251 yards their last game of the season and gave up 384 rushing yards to UTEP. Even teams not known for running the ball run all over North Texas. I think this game will be one-sided. Army has allowed only 38 points in the 4th quarter this year. North Texas isn’t built for coming from behind.

North Texas QB Mason Fine has been nursing a shoulder injury. It sounds like he can and will probably play, but not be 100% If he is, then he will still be rusty. “I wouldn’t anticipate him starting, because he hasn’t practiced”, coach Littrell said. The other QB is Alec Morris who has completed only 53% of his passes this season with a 6 TD/ 6 INT mark. North Texas is supposed to have their starting running back close to 100%, but he won’t be effective if North Texas is playing from behind.

Big Al

San Jose vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim

After a three day break from play, the NHL returns tonight, and so do the Ducks - from a very tough six-game road trip. No doubt this team will be happy to be back in Anaheim after going 2-4 on its travels which went pretty much around the country (and out of the country up north as well). Like the other team from the Los Angeles area, the Ducks really like playing in front of their home faithful, as they are 10-4-1 here vs. just 7-8-5 elsewhere. And they've won their last four in a row here, including a close 3-2 victory against tonight's opponents back on December 9. The Ducks are trying a two-goalie strategy it seems, alternating starts between #1 John Gibson and #2 Jonathan Bernier. But with the team having been off since the 22nd, they will likely stick with Gibson tonight even though he got the start last time. Despite Bernier having a winning record, Gibson's been the better net-minder through most of the season, and he's undefeated vs. the Sharks in his career, allowing just three total goals in three games against them with a 1.12 GAA. The Ducks have dominated this series lately, taking five of the last six meetings and four of the last five here in Southern Cal.

Jim Feist

Thunder at Heat
Pick: Over

OKC playing well, despite losing Kevin Durant in the offseason to Golden State. The Thunder are 19-12 and have won three straight. Russell Westbrook leads the team in scoring with 31.7 ppg. The Thunder are the 9th highest scoring team in the NBA with a 107.0 ppg average. The Thunder have been an excellent over team, especially on the road where they are 13-6 O/U their last 19. The Heat are also a good over team of late, posting a 20-7-1 O/U mark when they are rested.

Sports Cheetah

Wake Forest / Temple Under 41

The Temple Owls play at the 125th tempo (out of 128 teams) in the country. This means they are extremely slow paced. Wake Forest plays at the 104th tempo, so they are very slow as well.

Temple is without Coach Rhule now, and that has to hurt them in some way. This Temple defense should still be very solid though. Temple is fifth in the nation in yards per play allowed at only 4.60. Wake Forest is 125th in yards per play on offense. Basically, it's hard to imagine Wake Forest scoring more than about 10 points or so.

On the other side, Wake Forest's defense has improved a lot under Dave Clawson. Wake Forest is top 40 in all the major defensive categories this year. Temple is a good team overall, but their offense is just 65th in the nation in total offense.

Since this is in a dome and Rhule is gone, I'll limit this to a 4 star play instead of a 5 star play, but my number here was 35 points. Take the under.

SPORTS WAGERS

North Texas +11 over Army

The Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl is one of the newer contests to be added to the annual slate of post-season fixtures. Mean Green qualified for this contest by virtue of there not being enough ‘bowl eligible’ teams to fit into their respective slots for the expanding field of bowl games. North Texas was slotted into this contest by virtue of their APR or Academic Proficiency Rating despite finishing 5-7. This bowl is just five years old, but North Texas has already emerged victorious in this contest before. Some of the senior leadership of this team regale in the Mean Green’s rout of UNLV here just under two years ago and remember what it’s distinctly like to win this bowl game. Such achievements offers North Texas a mental edge in this contest even if they come in under .500. Furthermore, and perhaps the most compelling argument for the Mean Green is rooted in the fact that North Texas and Army met earlier this season where the Mean Green put the wood to the Black Knights in West Point by a score of 35-18.

For Army, their most recent memory was a memorable one at that when they took down their arch rival Navy in America’s Game. That was on a Saturday that is an annual event that caps off the college football regular season. It is seen by millions because it is the only college game on the particular Saturday. Army’s recent surge of wins capped off with the aforementioned victory over Navy, now has them greatly overvalued. Against Army on the road, North Texas entered the fixture as a 17½-point pooch and it is being even more disrespected here. That’s motivating enough and there also being told they don’t belong in a Bowl game. Beware of teams that are told they don’t belong, as they’re out to prove they do and usually come in super jacked up.

Army is assuredly a more recognized and reputable name in college football. The Black Knights may have been in a period of attrition that spans decades but this was a team that was at one point renowned for their supremacy as a college football powerhouse. Though the Knights have long since removed themselves from the national landscape in terms of competing for championships, they are nonetheless a well-respected program that this market is quite familiar with while North Texas does not have as much public familiarity to back up them up. That provides us with this opportunity. The Black Knights won their “Championship” already when they beat Navy. This is anticlimactic for Army, who now have to play a less important game and give away significant points to a team that wants desperately to not only prove they belong but to also prove that the first victory over Army in October was no fluke.

Wake Forest +12 over Temple

The Demon Deacons are dealing with the fallout of one of the sport's most bizarre recent scandals, but the news that the team accomplished what it did despite a previously unknown disadvantage can have a electrifying effect. Temple has its own issues, with an unfamiliar head coach coming in while the players' choice (defensive coordinator Phil Snow) was passed over for the head job and will now coach the defense one last time before departing for Baylor. Temple's last game was the American Athletic Conference title game on this same field, and while all six of the other bowl-bound league schools get to fly (or remain) south for the winter, the champ draws a cold-weather date in a locale too familiar to be that exciting.

At 41, this is the lowest total of the bowl season and for good reason. Both teams rank within the top 30 defensively in most key metrics, and both feature run-first, ball-control offenses. Wake played an extremely tough schedule that included games against Indiana, Army, N.C. State, Florida State, Louisville and Clemson while Temple’s toughest games were against UCF and Memphis. They defeated UCF but lost to Memphis, 34-27.

Many folks are pointing to Wake’s last three games of the year, all losses, as a sign of danger but let us remind you that the Deacs clinched a bowl berth precisely before those three losses. This was the bowl assignment that Wake wanted and a slight edge in desire might give the Deacs all they need to hang within a bloated number that's nearly 30 percent of the total. Temple is extremely vulnerable here and could lose outright.

Ben Burns

Rockets vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +6½

Both teams played last night. The Rockets won big vs. Phoenix. The Mavs lost at New Orleans. Its true that the Rockets have been better than the Mavs this season, when playing the second of b2b games. Both teams had a couple of days off before yesterday's game though. So, this isn't the most taxing of b2b spots. Also, each time that the Mavs have played the second of b2b games this season, they've been on the road. Plus, they're healthier now than they were. So, we can't entirely judge them on their current (1-4 ATS) mark in b2b spots.

With or without Dirk, who has played limited minutes of late but still hasn't committed to tonight's game, Dallas should provide a motivated effort this evening. Playing with "triple-revenge," the Mavs are looking to avoid the season sweep. Don't be surprised if they're a little hungrier than the Rockets, improving to 7-4 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game.

Jimmy Boyd

Baylor vs. Boise State
Play: Baylor +7½

I know Boise State has a strong track record in bowl games, but I think they will lack motivation here. The Broncos had their eyes set on going undefeated and playing in one of the premier bowl games. Now they find themselves up against a Baylor team that hasn’t won a game since beating Kansas on October 15. On top of that, we are getting exceptional value here with the Bears catching over a touchdown.

On the flip side of things, I think Baylor got a big shot in the arm when it was announced Rhule was taking over. This is their chance to make a lasting impression to get the edge at a starting job next season. At the same time, I think the players are going to play their hearts out for Grobe and the assistants on this staff. There’s also a lot of pride at stake here for the Bears, as they don’t want to end the season with 7 straight losses.

Baylor will be playing their bowl game without starting quarterback Seth Russell. Not a major shock to the system, as he didn’t play in the final 3 games of the regular season. Backup Zack Smith showed some potential filling in for Russell. He threw for 879 yards and 8 TD’s in those final 3 games. Nearly leading them to an upset win at West Virginia in the finale.

With that said, I think it’s the Bears running game that will be the difference in this one. Baylor ended the year ranked 12th in the country in rushing at 250.3 ypg. Boise State’s defense really struggled against strong rushing teams. Evident in their two losses to Wyoming and Air Force. The Broncos ranked just 68th against the run, giving up 179.8 ypg. Adding to this, Boise St is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 against teams who average 4.75 or more yards/carry. Baylor as a team averaged 5.1 yards/carry.

The ability to run the ball is huge for Baylor in this game. It’s going to keep their defense fresh and limit the number of possessions for the Broncos offense. Don’t forget last year’s bowl game for Baylor, where they upset No. 10 UNC 49-38 behind 645 yards rushing. More than anything, I think the Bears will be the more motivated team and we are getting a touchdown to work with.

Scott Rickenbach

Capitals vs. Islanders
Play: Under 5½

Only 3 of Washington's 11 December games have totaled more than 5 goals. The fact this total has now moved from a 5 to a 5.5 is offering great line value on the under. Look for a little bit of "lethargy" off of the rest that Christmas break afforded each club. Both teams are 2-0 to the under this season when they enter a game off of 3 or more days of rest. Looking at that stat going further back, the Capitals have had just 4 overs in 19 games the past three seasons combined and the Islanders have had just 6 overs in 17 such games the past three seasons combined. Though the last meeting between these clubs snuck over the total, the first two games this season both totaled just 3 goals apiece. In calendar year 2016 only 2 of the 7 meetings have totaled more than 5 goals. The under is 5-2 this season when the Isles are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. The under is 6-3-1 this season when the Capitals are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more this season.

Jack Jones

Baylor vs. Boise State
Play: Baylor +7½

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Baylor Bears right now. They have lost six straight games coming into the postseason. Jim Grobe is coaching his last game here as he is a lame duck. It will be Matt Rhule coming in from Temple to try and turn the program around next year. I think this awful public perception of this team is providing us some line value with this 7.5-point spread.

Player for player, Baylor is the more talented team in this matchup. And while they lost their final six games, the schedule was extremely tough, and they weren’t overwhelmed aside from the loss to TCU. They also lost to the likes of West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas during that six-game skid with four of the losses coming on the road.

But Baylor actually outgained two of those six opponents, and they were outgained by only 32 yards by Texas Tech, by 46 yards by Kansas State and by 49 yards by Oklahoma. That game against Oklahoma was much closer than the 24-45 final score, and it showed they could play with a top team. The 14-17 loss to WVU as 17-point road dogs in the finale also showed that the Bears have not quit.

Star wide receiver KD Cannon, who has 73 receptions for 989 yards and 11 touchdowns this year, has actually guaranteed a victory in this game. I like that mindset, and it shows that they care. Freshman QB Zach Smith was put into a tough spot but has held up well with 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns against six interceptions down the stretch against that tough schedule.

“I’m very excited for our players to have an opportunity to play in the Cactus Bowl against a great football team in Boise State,” Grobe told reporters. “I think our guys are looking forward to coaching these kids and getting them ready for a bowl game. So I feel good about playing in a bowl game. This is going to be it for me, so I’d like to win it for sure.”

Boise State’s 10-2 record is certainly inflated due to playing such a soft schedule. They lost to both Wyoming and Air Force. Their best win was a 31-28 victory over Washington State as 13-point favorites. They had so many shaky efforts in victory, including a 5-point win over Colorado State as 28-point favorites and a 1-point win over BYU as 7-point favorites. The Broncos went just 3-9 ATS in their 12 games this year, time and time again being overvalued.

The Broncos have been susceptible to the run this season, giving up 180 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. Boise State is 3-12 ATS versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. Baylor averages 250 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. The Bears rank 5th nationally in total offense at 523.3 yards per game as well. They have a three-headed attack at running back, led by Terence Williams (945 yards, 11 TD, 5.9/carry).

The general public thought Baylor didn’t want to be in the bowl last year against North Carolina. But that was far from the case as the Bears racked up 756 total yards in a 49-38 win as 3-point dogs against the Tar Heels. They rushed for 645 yards in that game alone, and they should have plenty of success on the ground against Boise State in this one as well.