Rocketman
Jazz vs. Lakers
Play: Jazz -5
The Utah Jazz travel to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers on Tuesday night. Utah comes in with an 18-13 SU overall record this year while the LA Lakers are 12-22 SU overall this season. Utah is 6-1 SU and ATS last 3 years as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points including 3-0 SU and ATS this year. LA Lakers are allowing 110.6 points per game overall this year, 109.9 points per game at home this season and 112.4 points per game their past 5 games overall. Utah is 3-1 SU and ATS when playing at LA Lakers past 3 years. Utah is 4-1-1 ATS last 6 games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game. Utah is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 games against the Western Conference. Utah is 20-7-1 ATS last 28 games against a team with a losing record. LA Lakers are 1-8 ATS last 9 games against the Western Conference. LA Lakers are 2-8 ATS last 10 games when playing on 1 days rest. LA Lakers are 10-25 ATS last 35 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. LA Lakers are 1-5 ATS last 6 games after a SU win. Favorite is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight!
Larry Ness
Houston vs. Dallas
Pick: Houston
The 23-9 Houston Rockets rolled 131-115 last night against the Suns and now visit Dallas looking to sweep the Mavs in this year's season series for the first time since the 1997-98. The last time the Houston Rockets swept a season series from the Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki was 19 years old and still playing in Germany.
The Rockets and Mavs have already met three times this season with Houston winning all three, as Nowitzki has yet to suit up against Houston. Nowitzki has appeared in only seven games this season due to a strained right Achilles strain (12.6-6.4) and it is uncertain if he will play tonight. "I don't know," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle said Monday of Nowitzki's status. "We'll know (Tuesday). That's all I can tell you right now." With or without Nowitzki, the Tuesday's meeting is the 16th game against a team over .500 for the Mavericks, who dropped their first 14 games against winning teams before Friday., when the Mavs surprised the injured Clippers 90-88.
The Rockets saw their 10-game winning streak end on Dec 20 with a 102-100 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs and are 2-1 since, making it 12 wins in their last 14. The Rockets' two most recent wins were both against the Phoenix Suns including last night, when Harden posted his 24th double-double of the season with 32 points and 12 assists. It was Harden's ninth game with 30 points and 10 assists, and it came on a night when the Rockets shot at least 50 percent for the ninth time, reached 120 points for the 11th time and made at least 15 three-pointers for the 18th time.He's having quite a season, averaging 27.5-7.8-11.9.
The Rockets are 12-6 SU on the road (13-5 ATS) and 9-3 in their past 12 meetings with Dallas after losing 16 of 19 meetings (sign of the changing times). The teams last met Dec. 10 in Houston, a 109-87 Rockets rout. It marked the fifth straight time Houston has held Dallas under 100 points, including holding Dallas to an average of just 92.3 PPG in this season's three wins. Lay the points with the road favorite.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON STATE (-10) over Minnesota
Because of a slew of suspensions on the Minnesota side, the line in this game has soared to double-digits but we don’t mind. This is a game that has blowout written all over it. Not only do we have a short-handed Golden Gopher team in turmoil following the suspensions and threat to boycott the game, but after playing a weak Big 10 schedule the Minnesota defense simply has not seen a pass-happy offense like WSU’s all season. QB Luke Faulk and the Cougars’ gimmicky offense are difficult to prepare for even when a team is at full strength and motivated. Never mind when a team is missing key players and would rather be elsewhere. Lay the lumber.
David Banks
Boise State vs. Baylor
Pick: Baylor +7.5
If there is a football program in the nation that needs a win, it's Baylor. After the whole sexual assault fiasco that cost Art Briles his job, interim head coach Jim Grobe did a great job leading the Bears to a 6-0 start. The problem? Baylor hasn't won a game since, so the 6-6 Bears are in search of a victory against 10-2 Boise State in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl.
With QB Seth Russell out for the season, it will be up to true freshman Zach Smith to lead the Baylor offense. He will have junior WR K.D. Cannon (73 receptions, 989 yards, 11 TDs), but he will be without the school's all-time leading rusher Shock Linwood who has decided to skip the bowl game to focus on the NFL Draft. Linwood rushed for 4,213 career yards and 36 touchdowns.
Boise State, which suffered a season-ending loss to Air Force that cost them a division title in the Mountain West, will look to end its season with 11 wins. The Broncos are led by RB Jeremy McNichols who ran for 1,663 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Sophomore QB Brett Rypien and WR Thomas Sperbeck lead the Boise State passing game. Rypien has thrown for 3,341 yards and Sperbeck has 1,193 yards receiving for an offense that averages 35.6 points per game (24th in the nation). What makes the Broncos exceptional is their defense. Head coach Bryan Harsin's defense is ranked in the Top 30 in the nation in both passing and scoring defense.
Brett Atkins
These teams met on October 22nd, and they combined for 53 points and the Over in a game that had a posted total of 48 points.
Similar total today in this bowl game, but I see a different end result, as I like the Under to be the way to go.
Army played 4 of their final 5 after their loss to North Texas Under the total, and for the season 8 of the 12 Black Knights games did stay Under the total.
North Texas played 3 of their 5 games after the Army meeting Under the total, and for the season the Mean Green played 7 their 12 games Under the posted price.
Listen, the linesmakers are not stupid, they know full well where the number should be in this game, so expect it to be a little bit of a sweat, but in the end North Texas and Army hold just Under the posted price.
2* ARMY-NORTH TEXAS UNDER
Brad Wilton
After breaking 6-0 to start the season, the Baylor Bears fell down hard, and never could get back up, as they dropped their last 6 games on the year - covering only once in that stretch!
Now Baylor has the pleasure of tangling with a Boise State team that just loves this time of the year. The Broncos have won 6 of their last 7 bowl games, and 7 of their last 10 over this past decade, and they have covered both under Bryan Harsin the past 2 years. In fact, State has covered in 6 of their last 8 bowl games, and they are 8-3-1 against the spread their last 12 away from the blue carpet of Boise.
The Bears did hire Matt Rhule away from Temple to take over next season in Waco, and I suspect Rhule will do a solid job, as he did turn Temple into a rock-solid program in his tenure in Philly. But that is for next season. Today the Bears will have to take their lumps, and remember that 4 of their last 6 losses on the year were by double-digits.
No stretch here in thinking we will see another double-digit blowout.
Boise's bowl success continues in 2016. Lay the lumber!
4* BOISE STATE
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington St -9½ over Minnesota
The elephant in the room here that surrounds the Gophers is a factor that is hard to measure but it must be mentioned because it’s part of the team right now. At this stage, it's hard to interpret what impact the events at Minnesota will have on the Gophers' ultimate desire to prepare for and play this game, but two things are certain. First, there is already a cost in terms of lost focus and preparation time, and second, the absence of five more defensive backs is bad personnel news versus Mike Leach, Luke Falk and the Cougars air raid. Still, we won't be too hasty to write the Gophers off, as the Minnesota players could come together, show up with spirit and play hard, an outcome made more likely given the unity between players and staff, if not the administration. The trouble in the Twin Cities will also have an effect on Washington State, who could easily look at the mess that the past few weeks have been and think the Gophers will be an easy out.
Minnesota's pass rush and ground game are big assets in this matchup, but even if the line gets to Falk regularly, it's hard to see the secondary holding up for four quarters against the nation's only passing offense featuring five players with 40 or more receptions. Washington State was in the driver's seat for its first Pac-12 championship since 2002 all the way up to the season's final week, but the Cougars couldn't get past Washington in the Apple Cup, finishing 8-4 and alone in second place in the Pac-12 North. If the Cougars are satisfied with their season and view this game as a disappointment, they could run into trouble. However, if they want to stick it to the Gophers because of “what several players are accused of doing” something real men will not tolerate, then it could be a very long day for the underdog. At this point, our best guess is that the Gophers play hard and hang around for a while before the favorite's well-oiled offense proves too much to handle and the Cougars pull away in the second half. It all comes down to focus so if the Coogs show up here and play hard, the Gophers won't have any answers.
Boise State -7 over Baylor
From reviewing the analytics, there are a lot of mixed messages here. What is clear is that the market assessment of this one is that a shootout is forthcoming. However, we have dissenting opinions, as this contest has every capability of being a one-sided affair in favor of Boise State.
The Broncos come in at 10-2. One of its losses was to Air Force in their regular season nightcap by a score of 27-20 despite spotting the Falcons 7½-points, Nevertheless, two things must be considered. First, this game was away from Boise where the Broncos lost both their games this season and second, the Falcons have had Boise’s number and always give them a hard time. Air Force played their signature brand of football, which consists of an efficient and methodical rushing attack, essentially starving Boise State’s offense of opportunities to hurt them. Similarly, Boise State was caught off guard when they went down to Laramie, Wyoming and fell to the Cowboys by a score of 30-28 as a two-touchdown favorite. Boise was expecting to see the Wyoming of year’s past and was met instead with a spirited and live outfit in an electric atmosphere. From these two results, combined with their 3-9 ATS record, this market had had enough of spotting points with Boise State while ripping up their tickets. That’s when we like to step in, as Boise comes in underpriced for the first time in a very long time.
The Baylor Bears have been a train wreck since Week 7 and nothing has changed coming into this one. The difference between the two rests in the fact that this is a Bears football team that started off at 6-0 before losing their last six down the backstretch. We have always been advocates for staying clear of teams that live and die by their offense and Baylor typifies that. As a result of Baylor’s approach, we have seen this team blow huge leads in the past and/or get taken down by teams they should have beaten. How can we feel good about Baylor in what has just been a very unfortunate season in many ways? On the other side you have a team in Boise State that went 3-9 against the spread this season, but we’ll chalk that up to it being a name brand in a lower-tier conference, and having inflated numbers put on them as a favorite in many of those games. Swallow the points and then expect a big day from the Boise State offense behind QB Brett Rypien, who threw for 23 touchdowns this year, while tossing only six interceptions. Baylor is not only going bad, it is outclassed here too.
Ben Burns
Colorado +1.5 -248
While the price is obviously a little on the steep side, given the fact that Calgary averages only 2.1 goals on the road, which makes winning by more than 1.5 awfully difficult, I feel that the price could easily be even higher. The Avs "stopped the bleeding" prior to the Christmas Break, beating the Hawks by a 2-1 score. They haven't seen the Flames since beating them 4-3 last March. Knowing that they'll face the Flames again in Calgary next week (1/4) and desperate to avoid falling into another rut, I fully expect the Avs to "go all out" and earn at least the "cover."
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ Nashville
Pick: Nashville -114
Minnesota is hot but thin on depth, missing key forwards Erik Haula and Zach Parise to injury and illness. The Wild head out on the road and are 1-11 when playing on three or more days of rest. This is the end of a three-game road trip for them. Nashville is 10-4-1 at home, ranked ninth in the NHL in goals scored, and #11 on the power play. The Predators come off a shutout loss but are 8-2 after scoring two or fewer goals in their previous game, plus 14-6 when playing on three or more days of rest.
Alex Smith
Winnipeg at Chicago
Play: Under 5
Central Division foes face off at the "Madhouse on Madison" tonight as the Chicago Blackhawks host the Winnipeg Jets. The Hawks gain a pair of key players back from injury off the short holiday break as forwards Artem Anisimov and Marian Hossa are both scheduled to return to the lineup. The 36-year-old Hossa leads Chicago with 16 goals while the Russian sniper Anisimov has 27 points and is a key piece of the club's top line along with Artemi Panarin and Patrick Kane. Winnipeg has won three of its last four games and despite losing six of the previous 10 meetings versus Chicago, they've given the Blackhawks some match-up troubles from a size perspective. Former Hawk Dustin Byfuglien leads the charge along with defenseman Adam Pardy in hits, using their physical style to push around the skillful, offensive-minded Hawks. These two teams have been under machines all season with Winnipeg going 3-9-1 O/U in 13 division contests and Chicago on a 6-13-4 O/U run versus Western Conference opposition. Adding to it is a 3-7 O/U run over the last 10 meetings. I anticipate both squads to start off slow and keep things tight in this game knowing the first mistake made could make a significant difference. Play this game under the total of 5 at a decent plus price.
Bruce Marshall
Rutgers +19.5
Though Rutgers' 11-1 SU mark (thru Dec. 22) can largely be attributed to a very favorable early slate, Big Ten observers believe the Scarlet Knights are indeed in the process of turning the corner for new HC Steve Pikiell, who recently made a Big Dance qualifier out of Stony Brook for the first time ever. No matter the opposition, Rutgers has been owning the boards (their whopping +13.4 rebound edge prior to Seton Hall on Dec. 23 ranks third in the nation!), and that should at least prevent the Pikiell Scarlet Knights from becoming roadkill as has been the case the past couple of years in Big Ten play. The 14th-ranked (as of last week) Badgers and their seasoned lineup should not be in any danger. But don't think they embarrass this year's more-resolute Rutgers side.
Bob Valentino
My free winner for Tuesday is in college basketbal, as I'm laying points with No. 14 Wisconsin over Rutgers.
I know both teams come in with identical 11-2 records, but the Scarlet Knights are about to experience their toughest test of the season, in a Wisconsin team that returned its entire starting lineup from last season and has shown incredible depth from its bench.
The Badgers (11-2) rolled through nonconference play with just two tough losses to two very good opponents in Creighton and North Carolina.
This is the Big Ten opener for both, and Wisconsin is going to roll with its well-rested, talented team that hasn't played since Friday.
Senior guard Bronson Koenig (14.6 ppg) and senior forward Nigel Hayes (13.5 ppg) lead the Badgers on offense, and will once again lead the charge in this one.
Over the past seven games, Hayes has shot 59.4 percent (38 of 64) from the field and is averaging 16 ppg.
While Rutgers is enjoying its best season in three years as a member of the Big Ten, keep in mind it posted a 3-33 record in its first two seasons in the conference. The Knights didn't necessarily have a tough nonconference slate, so this will be a wake-up call.
And with Rutgers coming in after a 72-61 road loss to intrastate foe Seton Hall, this one will be rough.
Take Wisconsin today.
2* WISCONSIN
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 22-13 run with free picks, as my complimentary winner is on the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road, visiting the Miami Heat.
This has become one of the more exciting basketball teams to watch when in town, specifically because of the Russell Westbrook Show. The Oklahoma City Thunder point guard is averaging a triple-double: 31.7 points, 10.9 assists and 10.4 rebounds.
The fiery all-star leads all NBA players in scoring and ranks No. 1 in rebounding among guards. He also ranks No. 2 in assists.
Westbrook - who has 51 career triple-doubles, which is No. 1 in the NBA among active players - is as athletic as they come, and I don't think the Heat have one player who can challenge him defensively. I don't see anybody stopping him tonight, as they continue to struggle in what has become a rebuilding year.
The MVP favorite is going to lead the Thunder (19-12) to a dominating win over Miami (10-21), which is just 5-11 at home.
Take the road team here, as OKC rolls to the blowout win.
3* THUNDER
Eric Schroeder
I'm on a 16-6 run with complimentary releases, and look to improve with a free Pro Basketball side for today.
My free play is on the Los Angeles Lakers, who come in after ending their drought against the Los Angeles Clippers, and will continue to grow as a team with yet another surprising win, tonight against the Utah Jazz.
Seven Lakers scored in double figures against the Clippers, led by Nick Young and Timofey Mozgov with 19 each, marking the first time the Lakers defeated the Clippers in more than three year, ending an 11-game losing streak.
The Lakers (12-22) also snapped a four-game skid and won for just the second time in the past 14 games. That momentum will carry into this game, which is a double-revenge situation for L.A.
The Jazz have won twice over the Lakers this season, including a Dec. 5 matchup at Staples Center, a 107-101 victory over a short-handed Los Angeles roster that was missing several key performers.
The Lakers are going to take advantage of a Utah team that is mired in a three-game losing streak, including a 104-98 setback at the hands of the Toronto Raptors on Friday night. And that was on the heels of a one-point setback against the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday, and a 30-point thrashing from the two-time defending Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors on Dec. 20.
This time around, it's the Jazz who are dealing with injuries, as starting point guard George Hill has a toe injury that is expected to keep him out tonight. Also, guard Rodney Hood has been slowed by flu, and while he is expected to play against the Lakers, his stamina could suffer.
I like the home underdog here.
4* LAKERS
BRANDON LEE
Michigan State vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -6.5
The public is pounding Michigan State at a near 60% clip, yet this line continues to go the other direction. That tells me the big money is on the Gophers and I couldn't agree more. Minnesota has jumped out to a 12-1 start and are a perfect 11-0 at home. Michigan State has won 4 of 5, but continue to not play well and are still missing their best player in freshman star Miles Bridges. Without him they have struggled to put away some mediocre teams and even lost by 8 at home to Northeastern recently. Regardless of who the Spartans have available, Minnesota is going to treat this like they are at full strength and lay everything on the line in their conference opener at home.