DAVE PRICE
Rockets vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +6.5
Amazingly, this will already be the 4th and final meeting between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks this season. Houston is 3-0 in the first three matchups, winning by 1, 8 and 22 points. It's safe to say that the Mavericks are going to want this game more tonight to avoid the season sweep. Houston used up a lot of energy in a 131-115 win over the Suns last night and won't have a ton left to give. The Mavericks are as healthy as they've been all season and are playing much better basketball of late because of it, going 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. Bets against road favorites who average at least 102 points per game against teams that give up 98-102 points per game, after a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games are 38-13 ATS over the last 5 years. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
MIKE ANTHONY
Washington St vs. Minnesota
Play: Washington St -8.5
CB Shalom Luani of Washington State, will make his presence known here, with his 4 picks on the season. Matched up vs the WR of Minnesota is going to be crucial. Minnesota will not stop the attacking D of Washington State when they are firing the gaps. Minnesota doesn't play quick passes in the flats very good. And Washington State actually uses their pass catching RB, Jamal Morrow and 13 TD producer, WR Gabe Marks often split out with some blockers in front. Minnesota is still a decent team, much better game than expected on paper but WSU will hold on late. Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-12. Washington State has too many weapons and this Minnesota is in disarray and the HC is probably gone after this game.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -1½ +244 over Buffalo
OT included. The Red Wings have struggled at times but they had a sweet win over the Panthers just before the break and they also defeated Anaheim 6-4 in their last home game. Detroit has now won two of three but more than that is they are a team that plays hard and has outstanding scoring depth. We also like the mindset of the Red Wings, as they appear to be a cohesive unit that wants to win badly. Even when they are getting beat or going bad, the Red Wings are digging deep. Indeed spotting 1½-pucks or any pucks with the Red Wings is risky but perhaps it’s time to start bringing down the hammer on the Sabres, a team in big trouble.
Buffalo has lost four straight but that is not the issue here. The issue is that they are an unresponsive team. They have fallen behind 2-0 in five of its last six games. The Sabres hit the Christmas break last in the Eastern Conference amid growing questions that surround their coach's game management. They have given up the first goal in seven straight games and appear to be on their heels right from the opening puck drop. Dan Blysma’s plodding system is flat-out unwatchable at times. Players' instincts are stunted in place of where-should-I-be second thoughts. Zemgus Girgensons clearly can't make heads or tails out of it. Tyler Ennis, when he was healthy, had the same problem. Many others seem baffled. The Sabres should be skating and not thinking so much on the ice but their coach has to allow them to play that way. You wonder if that's possible.
Lately, it seems as if Bylsma has lost his mind. It's to the point where it's now an open discussion among Sabres fans if Bylsma, in just the second year of a five-year contract, should be heading down Ryan Road to the unemployment line too if his team continues to implode. Let's look at some examples:
Bylsma benched Jack Eichel for the first power play of Thursday's home loss to Carolina and the team's broadcast partners revealed Friday it was for disciplinary reasons. Perhaps not wanting to throw his 20-year-old star under the bus, Bylsma took the bullets for the decision with the media after Thursday's game and made no mention of any discipline issue. It was a bad miscalculation. By protecting the player, Bylsma made it sound like he actually wanted Matt Moulson on his power play over the kid the Sabres threw an entire season to get. Even though Moulson has seven power-play goals this season, everyone listening thought Bylsma was going goofy.
The Sabres' best defensive pairing this season has been Jake McCabe, and not the overmatched Josh Gorges, making a fine partner for No. 1 blueliner Rasmus Ristolainen. So what has Bylsma done the last couple games? Paired Ristolainen with trade acquisition Dmitry Kulikov, who has been a complete disaster. William Carrier, with one goal and two points in 23 games is being given way too much ice time. Zach Bogosian, who has missed a ton of time over the past five years because of numerous injuries looks lost out there and about 10 steps behind everybody else but the Sabres keep giving him big minutes because they are paying him big bucks. Bogosian has turned into a big liability every time he takes the ice. Remember, the Sabres didn't get Mike Babcock, they got Bylsma. They didn't get Steven Stamkos and they didn't get Jimmy Vesey. The losing was supposed to end this year but perhaps all the things that didn’t happen has negatively affected the players that were there. Dan Blysma is not letting them play creative hockey and that has everyone on their heels too. This is an unhappy group of players that probably aren’t looking forward to “getting back at it” and until things change, Buffalo is a good bet to lose a bunch of games by more than one goal and we'll put that to the test here.
Ottawa +145 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. Rangers coach, Alain Vigneault is causing quite a stir among fans and media for choosing Antti Raanta over a healthy Henrik Lundqvist in six of the Rangers past nine games. AV has called Raanta’s name for this one too despite being pulled last game after allowing two quick goals in a 7-4 loss to the Wild. Prior to playing Minnesota, Raanta was also in net for the Rangers 7-2 loss to the Penguins. Raanta was in goal for all seven goals. Raanta has started the last two games for New York and the Rangers are 0-2 in those games while allowing seven goals against in both. While there is no need to panic just yet, as the Rangers are near to the top of the standings, there are issues surrounding this team that go beneath the surface. For one, the Rangers are a weak possession team, ranking 23rd in time spent in the offensive end. Playing the 20th ranked strength of schedule in the league, New York is 6-6 against top-10 competition and they were outshot and out-chanced in 11 of those 12 games. Only two teams, Arizona and Dallas, have had more face-offs taken in their end than the Rangers. Luck played a major role in the Rags getting to the playoffs last year before they were blown out by the Penguins and they’re on that same path this year. This is not a strong hockey team.
The Senators are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NHL. Quietly, the Sens have one of the best records in the NHL. Quietly, Mike Condon has been brilliant in net. Quietly, Ottawa has won four straight while outscoring the opposition 15-7 over that span. The Sens are a speedy and talented team that creates havoc in the offensive end. They have split up the Stone/Turris/Hoffman line that made them “top heavy” into three equal opportunity lines that makes them so much more balanced and it’s working. Ottawa is 6-4 in their last 10 games with losses occurring against Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose and Pittsburgh. Those are not bad losses and now the Sens will play in another very winnable game while taking back a pretty sweet price.
Boston +115 over COLUMBUS
OT included. We have constantly insisted that of the four major sports, the results from game-to-game in hockey are the most luck driven of them all. A puck deflects and goes off the post or crossbar in one game and it goes into the top corner in another. Pucks pinball off three players and goes into the net in one game and pinballs off three players and goes 10-feet wide in another game. The puck bounces and just like a fumble in football, you don’t know where it is going to end up. Of course it’s not all luck driven, as there are great teams, good teams, average teams and weak teams and the analytics and surface stats can help in separating who’s who. That said, the Jackets have won 12 straight and while they are a legit team to be sure, it is so hard to win one game because of the luck factor, let alone 12. The Jackets were outshot 37-24 by Montreal just before the break but won 2-1. Two games previously, Columbus was outshot by Los Angeles 46-27 but won again. The Jackets had tremendous momentum heading into the break and it’s going to be difficult to bring that same intensity the first game back after it. Besides that, Boston is the perfect under the radar team to snap the Jackets franchise best 12-game winning streak.
Boston is a top-3 team in all offensive analytic categories. They rank second in the league in Corsi for. They are also the league’s third best puck possession team. The B’s dominate almost every game but luck has not been on their side. Boston’s PDO is fourth worst in the league and once those high quality chances start going in, the B’s are going to make a major move up the standings. Right now, Boston is 18-14-4, which puts them on par with many others but it hides the fact that the B’s are a dominating team. Boston had dropped seven of its last 10 games but it’s all because of bad luck. During that span, the B’s outshot the Islanders 50-29 and lost 4-2. In fact, they outshot every single team over that span except one and most of them were by a wide margin. They even outshot Pittsburgh 44-37 and lost 4-3. The B’s are working hard and playing great hockey without the results to show for it. Boston’s hard work and outstanding talent is about to pay off in spades and when it does, we are going to be there to collect. That likely starts here.
Minnesota +101 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Preds have four wins over their last 11 games and just about everything they’re doing these days is either average or below. The Preds rank 17th in goals against per game and 18th on the penalty kill. They rank 12th in puck possession, which is a big drop off from last year’s squad that ranked fifth. Despite playing the 28th ranked strength of schedule in the NHL, the Preds are three games under .500. In a recent stretch of seven games, the Preds won twice and both victories occurred against Colorado. Once again, goaltending is becoming a huge issue, as Pekka Riinne has posted save percentages of .840, .824, .885, .882, .778 and .893 in six of his last seven starts.
Give a massive edge in goal to the Wild here. That alone makes them worthy of a bet here and so does the price. Combine the two and it’s a must play. The Wild have won 10 straight and come into this one after the break feeling strong, confident and wanting to get right back at it. Minnesota has also scored four goals or more in five of its last six games and we can almost guarantee that three or more here gets them a win here. Chances are GREAT they score at least three on Pekka Rinne.
Nelly
Boise St. vs. Baylor
Play: Under 68
Baylor has managed just over 24 points per game over the final five games of the season as the offense has been far less successful under freshman quarterback Zachary Smith. The Bears could lean on the ground game as they did last season in the upset over North Carolina in bowl action and with the Broncos having both MWC losses coming against strong rushing attacks. Both teams leaned ‘under’ on the season results with higher scoring reputations and inflated numbers and both teams have better defensive numbers than might be expected with Baylor allowing 5.5 yards per play and Boise State allowing just 5.1 yards per play.