Free Picks for Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
KANSAS VS KENTUCKY
PLAY: KANSAS -4.5
Put these two teams on the court in March 2018 and I might very well have a completely different read than the one I have tonight.
But off what I saw this weekend, I think Kentucky could have some problems tonight with Kansas. The Wildcats unquestionably have an abundance of spectacular talent. They also happen to presently have an abundance of inexperience.
Kentucky had to squirm some in holding off Vermont in the season opener. The next night, the Wildcats actually were down double digits in the second half to Utah Valley. Bottom line is Kentucky might not be quite ready for the bright lights tonight in Chicago.
The betting line on this game went up almost as soon as it got posted. Kansas is now up to -4.5, which is a little more expensive than I was hoping for. But at this juncture, it looks to me like the Jayhawks are simply ahead of the Wildcats and I’d therefore have to play accordingly. Kansas minus the points will be tonight’s free play.
Joe DelPopolo
Akron +13
Based on my Stat-Key Power Raking system and predictive math-model Akron should stay within the number here. After a big home win last week by Ohio U we look for a little letdown on the road this week to a below-average team.
Ben Burns
Spurs vs. Mavs
Play: Spurs -6
It’s taken a while for Pop to figure out how things would shake down without the likes of Ginobili, Parker and Leonard, but order seems to have been restored after a brutal start. With four wins in their last five, the Spurs head into a road-centric next two weeks with what looks like a layup in Dallas. San Antonio’s veterans had their way with the Bulls in their last game, with eight players padding their stats by scoring in double figures in a 37-point victory. The Spurs should be able to cover the spread pretty easily against a Dallas team that is still trying to figure things out.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas vs. Kentucky
Play: Kansas -4
I like the value here with the Jayhawks laying a short number against the Wildcats when these two meet up at the United Center in Chicago on Tuesday. While both teams have to replace a lot of talent from last year, I trust Kansas a lot more early on in the season. That's because the Jayhawks at least have some veteran leadership to fall back on. They return seniors Devonte Graham (started last year) and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, as well sophomore big man Udoka Azubuike, who was limited to 11 games last year before injury and junior Lagerald Vick. Plus, they added in some more stud freshmen like Billy Preston and Marcus Garrett.
Kentucky has another loaded freshman class, but are forced to rely on them heavily early on, as the top returning player from last year is Wenyen Gabriel, who played just over 8 minutes a game. The Wildcats have been starting 5 freshmen and have struggled early. They had to rally from a 9-point half-time deficit against Utah Valley and were in a dog fight until the closing seconds against Vermont. Calipari will work his magic and Kentucky will be a force in the SEC and NCAA Tournament, but early on there are going to be a lot of growing pains for this Wildcats team.
Larry Ness
Raptors vs. Rockets
Play: Raptors +7
Toronto comes in off a tough 95-94 road loss to Boston Sunday. Houston has won six straight, most recently getting by Indiana 118-95.
Note that these team’s split a pair of games last year, with each winning on the others floor.
DeMar DeRozan had 24 points for Toronto in the loss to the Celtics. The Raptors average 108.8 PPG and concede 104.3.
Toronto is a deep team, with DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, big man Jona Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka and Norman Powell.
With a six game win streak under their belts and a 2.5 game lead in the division over the Spurs, there’s no question in my mind that this now finally sets up as a mental letdown spot for the Rockets.
Additionally I’ll point out that Houston is just 15-22 ATS in its last 37 after three or more consecutive SU wins and only 23-30 ATS in its last 53 following a victory by ten points or more.
Toronto has excelled against good offensive teams this year, going 4-2 ATS against clubs that average 106-plus points per contest.
Should be a nail-biter and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Ray Monohan
Spurs vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +7
Catching the Mavs with this many points is a worth a move on Tuesday.
Dallas plays a very similar style to this Spurs team, which actually works out in their favor.
This is going to be a very slow paced game, with both teams really working the ball around and trying to find an open look given how both teams like to operate.
The Spurs have also struggled on the road. They have gone 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games and playing on 2 days rest has seen them cover just 3 of the last 12 games in this spot situationally.
You can expect a low scoring game in this one, with grabbing the points having the value in this spot.
Mike Anthony
NC Wilmington vs. Davidson
Play: Davidson -10
We’re very high on Davidson coming into the year as the Wildcats bring back 4 starters to a group that can be a lot better than the Davidson that went 17-15 overall last year. Peyton Aldridge is a stud coming off a year where he averaged over 20 points per game, but the Wildcats do lose leading scorer Jack Gibbs. Even with Gibbs gone, the Wildcats are still in a great position to take a step forward given the amount of returning veteran talent they have. Davidson looked great in their opener taking down Charleston Southern by a final of 110-62 in a game where 4 starters scored at least 18 points. This should be a very high scoring game which gives the points a little less value than if this was a defensive oriented matchup. Davidson has a lot more continuity coming into the year and it’ll likely take some time for UNCW to adapt. We’ll side with the Wildcats to get the job done
Jim Feist
Spurs at Mavs
Pick: Over
After a dismal start, the Spurs have things on track with four wins in their last five games. The Spurs coming off a 39 point victory over the Bulls. Dallas has just one win in their last nine games and have lost two straight. The Mavs are also just 1-8 ATS their last nine games and 5-16-1 ATS the last 22 overall. The Spurs have been without Tony Parker and Leonard. Parker could return at the end of November with Leonard's return unknown. The Spurs have been a very good over club of late, posting a 21-10 O/U mark their last 31, 11-5 O/U their last 16 road games and 10-4 O/U their last 14 with two days rest. By this year's standards, this is a low total. The Spurs should have no problem scoring and if we can get anything out of the Mavs, this is an OVER.
Micah Roberts
Ohio vs. Akron
Play: Ohio -13
I haven't heard if Thomas woodson will be in for Akron, but even if he is I still like Ohio to keep rolling. They've covered four straight and their last win, 38-10 vs. Toledo, was their best of the season. Akron has covered six of their last seven, but the one game they didn't cover was when they were simply outclassed by Toledo. That is also the only Over in Akron's last seven games. Ohio's average score this season has been 40-24.
Wunderdog
NC Wilmington @ Davidson
Pick: Under 155.5
NC Wilmington and Davidson both got off in winning fashion, with each taking their opener. Nothing unexpected as both took on low-level college teams, and what may be driving the total here is the way they did it. These teams combined to produce 215 points. Things will be a lot different tonight as the competition is a lot closer and the looks will not come as easily. Davidson certainly has the experience edge with four starters returning to the Seahawks one, so I don't think NC Wilmington is going to induce a track meet. The Wildcats allowed just 71.6 points per game last season to a schedule of teams that are a lot better than NCW. The Seahawks lost almost everyone from a team that averaged 84 ppg last season, and I don't see this one getting into the 150s.
Brandon Lee
Denver vs. Colorado
Play: Denver +10½
I'll take my chances here with Denver catching double-digits against in-state big brother Colorado on Tuesday. The Pioneers struggled with their shot in their opening 69-83 loss to UC-Irvine, as they hit just 33% from the field and 26% from behind the arc. That's uncharacteristic for this team, who ranked in the Top 25 last year hitting 48% from the field and 40% from long distance. With 7 of their 8 top scorers back, I'll chalk the game against the Anteaters as just a bad day at the office. Note that UC-Irvine is known for their defense, so not a big surprise to see them struggle with their shot.
Colorado won their opener over Northern Colorado at home, but were far from dominant, as they only won by 14 points. The Buffaloes lost their top two scorers and have just 1 starter back. There's some nice talent on the roster for Tad Boyle, but this is a very inexperienced team. If they let the Pioneers get going offensively, I think we could see a potential upset here.
Mike Lundin
Coyotes vs. Jets
Play: Jets -1½
The Winnipeg Jets defeated the Coyotes 4-1 at Arizona just a couple of days ago, and I think they'll win and cover the puckline once again when they take on the Yotes home at Bell MTS Centre Tuesday night. We can note that Coyotes are just 2-12 in their last 14 in the second game of a home-and-home situation.
The Yotes are a pathetic 1-8-1 on the road and they've yet to win in regulation through 19 games overall. They're struggling on both ends of the ice and conceded an NHL worst 74 goals. Their penalty-killing percentage is just 75.5, bad news as they'll face a Jets team that has converted on a healthy 24.7 percent of its power play opportunities.
Ray Monohan
Spurs vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +7
Catching the Mavs with this many points is a worth a move on Tuesday.
Dallas plays a very similar style to this Spurs team, which actually works out in their favor.
This is going to be a very slow paced game, with both teams really working the ball around and trying to find an open look given how both teams like to operate.
The Spurs have also struggled on the road. They have gone 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games and playing on 2 days rest has seen them cover just 3 of the last 12 games in this spot situationally.
You can expect a low scoring game in this one, with grabbing the points having the value in this spot.
Jack Jones
Ohio vs. Akron
Play: Ohio -13
The Ohio Bobcats cemented themselves as the best team in the MAC with a 38-10 victory over Toledo last week. It was their fourth straight wins and cover with all four coming via blowout by 17 points or more. This team is really hitting on all cylinders right now.
What I love about this situation is that the Bobcats cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. That's because if they lose to Akron tonight, they won't be going to the MAC Championship Game. This game is essentially for the division title, so the Zips will have the Bobcats' full attention.
Ohio has been racking up points and yards, scoring 38 or more in seven of their 10 games this season. They are averaging 40.9 points per game on the year. That's why I'm not afraid to lay 13 points with them here Tuesday night.
Conversely, Akron has a pitiful offense that won't be able to keep up. The Zips are scoring just 21.8 points per game and averaging 326 yards per game on the season. Akron is extremely fortunate to even be in this position to win the division as they have two 1-point wins here in their last four games. The other two were a 21-48 blowout loss at Toledo and a 14-24 home loss to Miami Ohio.
Just look at Akron's stats this season and it's easy to see this is a fraudulent 5-5 team, and 4-2 in conference play. The Zips are getting outgained by 116 yards per game on the season, and 124 yards per game in conference play. And they have issues at quarterback right now with Thomas Woodson recently suspended, leaving the job up to a freshman last week.
Ohio is 7-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game over the past three seasons. The Bobcats are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.