SPORTS WAGERS
MARQUETTE +5 over Purdue
The Gavitt Tipoff Games is in its third year of pitting participating schools from the Big 10 and Big East Conferences in an attempt to place some sort of stakes on what would be otherwise relatively meaningless early season ball games. As we know, everything is about money, and so this game tonight will be played at the home of the Milwaukee Bucks, the BMO Harris Bradley Center to give it that “big game” feel.
The Golden Eagles are in their fourth year under head coach Steve Wojciechowski and for the first time ever, this roster is only comprised of players recruited by Woj and his staff. This Marquette team is an unknown commodity with nine players who are either in their first or second year of eligibility. Only seven other teams have more freshman and sophomores than the Golden Eagles. Marquette kicked its season off with an 80-59 win over Mount St. Mary’s on Friday night, but this nationally televised game is truly the start of its season.
The Boilermakers jumped one spot in the Top 25 and find themselves ranked 19th after an undefeated weekend to open the season. Now, you might think that Purdue faced a quality opponent or two to coincide with its climb up the ladder, but that is just not the case. The Boilermakers started their season with a 105-74 win over SIU-Edwardsville, narrowly covering as -29½ point chalk. In game two, Purdue took on the Chicago State Cougars in a contest where oddsmakers refused to post a number, and while the Boilermakers rolled to a 111-42 victory, it’s nearly impossible to put stock in a W over such weak competition. After wins of 31 and 69 points respectively, Boilermakers senior center Isaac Haas quipped, “We all try to prepare for every game like it’s Michigan State or Marquette or any other big team. We treat Chicago State like its Indiana”. While that sentiment sounds good in the papers, the reality is not all teams are created equal. The players all know the point spread and we suspect covering big numbers against weak competition is a far bigger motivator than picturing the CS Cougars in Indiana’s crimson and cream.
These two school’s haven’t played against each other in nearly 50 years, which is unusually for a pair of schools separated by 219 miles. For Purdue, this major step up in competition will be its third game in five nights. Even with the cupcake schedule to start the season, that is a lot of ball in a short time. As for this matchup with Marquette, the market has absolutely taken a stand, as #19 Purdue is getting the brunt of the action and it’s easy to understand why. Laying two or three baskets with a ranked team over an unranked team looks like an appealing bet, but anyone that has followed college hoops for any length of time knows that these early season rankings mean nothing. However, they do provide us with an opportunity, as Top 25 teams are often overvalued. We trust that is the case tonight, as the Golden Eagles can win this game outright and with such a good chance to do just that, we’ll split this up and play 1 unit on the money line and 1 unit taking back the points
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Marquette +189 for 1 unit
Marquette +5 -106 for 1.06 units to win 1
SPORTS WAGERS
Dallas +110 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Florida Panthers are a very decent underdog. They play hard, they work hard and their top line is one of the best in the business. However, as the chalk, the risk is too great because the big flaws in their roster mean they’re always in jeopardy of losing. Florida’s defense is a clutter of confusion out there. Ian McCoshen, Mark Pysyk and MacKenzie Weegar are getting far too many minutes because Florida has no other options right now. Florida has allowed just one goal against in two straight and they won both those two games but this is a team that ranks 20th in both Corsi For and Corsi Against. Florida is below average in just about every aspect of its game including goaltending.
Dallas played last night, which is one of the reasons that the price on them is what it is. Another reason is because Kari Lehtonen is in goal instead of Ben Bishop. Additionally, Dallas is not winning like they were projected to so their stock is lower than it should be. Dallas also dropped a 5-1 decision last night to Carolina which looks much worse on paper than it actually was. That game was 1-1 going to the third. The shots on net and scoring chances were almost dead even but Carolina scored four times in the third on nine shots on net. Dallas may not be getting the results on the scoreboard but they are greatly improved from last year, especially on defense, where they rank 10 positions higher than last year at this same point of the season. In fact, the Stars overall Corsi numbers rank 8th in the league. They are a slightly above average possession team and like Florida, they have one of the NHL’s best lines. The big difference is on defense, where Dallas has good puck-moving defensemen while the Panthers have at least three playing 14 minutes a game or more that look lost out there. We couldn’t care less that the Stars are playing back-to-back. They are playing well enough to win more games and certainly well enough to beat this host.
Buffalo +212 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. One always has to fear the Penguins, especially at PPG Paints Arena where the Pens are 5-0-1 this season. Furthermore, the Penguins are probably not in the best of moods after losing seven of their past nine games. Pittsburgh also has an advantage in goal with Matt Murray against Robin Lehner but all of that is not going to deter us from getting behind the Sabres at this price in this spot. For one, the Pens are in the midst of a brutal traveling schedule. It started on October 28th when they played in Minnesota to begin a five-game trip. After playing in Minnesota, the Pens went on to play in Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver before returning home for one lousy game against the Coyotes. After that single home game, Pittsburgh traveled again to Washington on Friday and then onto Nashville for a Saturday night game there. They are now back home for this game but this will be the ninth straight game since October 15 that the Pens have had to travel to their next destination. That’s tough and it’s even tougher when you consider all the hockey that this team has played over the past two plus seasons. Lastly, Pittsburgh’s defense has given up more scoring chances per 60 minutes than any team in the NHL but one and they’ve also played more games (19) than any other team. The Penguins are vulnerable right now while the Sabres’ stock is too low.
Power-play rankings and penalty kill rankings are all luck driven, much like turnovers in football. Every team sets up the same way for both. For the PP, teams either shoot it in and retrieve it or carry it in. Once they have possession, they look for the open shooter (usually at the point), get a man in front of the net to screen or deflect and then blast away. Sometimes it will deflect in and sometimes it will deflect over the glass. Sometimes it will hit a leg and go in and other times it will hit a leg and deflect 10 feet wide. If a team is scoring at a high percentage, it’s lucky and if they’re not, it’s unlucky.
The penalty kill is the same too. Teams’ will set up that four-corner box and try and keep the players on the perimeter. The biggest proof that it’s all luck driven is the rankings from year-to-year. You may as well put all teams in a hat, pull them out and list them because there is no consistency whatsoever to team PP rankings or penalty kill rankings. Take a quick guess as to which team led the NHL in PP percentage last year. If you said Pittsburgh you would be wrong. If you said Buffalo, you would be correct. Buffalo’s PP% last year was 24.5%. The league average is around the 18% mark. This season, Buffalo’s PP ranks not 1st but 29th at 14% and they are not worse this year in terms of personnel. The point is that Buffalo’s power-play is very likely in for a correction to the good and this is as good a place as any for that to start. Tired teams’ have a difficult time staying out of the box and Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to anyway. Additionally, the Sabres have outshot five of their last six opponents including at Montreal in their last game. In fact, the Sabres have allowed 29, 22, 25 and 29 shots on net in four of its last five and no more than 31 shots on net in six straight. The Sabres are undervalued and very worthy of a bet here.
Arizona +182 over WINNIPEG
The Coyotes have two wins in 19 games, which puts them on a pace for about 10 wins in 82 games. We can’t even begin to explain how preposterous that is for a team with this much talent. The worst teams in the history of this league have fared better and we can assure you that the Coyotes are not close to being as bad as those some of those teams. In their second season, the San Jose Sharks would make history by breaking futility records. San Jose finished 11-71-2, with just 24 points. Those 71 losses are a record for most in a season, and they also set the record for most consecutive losses with 17. There are more on record but those teams were getting smashed nightly while this team is not. Arizona has had the lead in almost every game they have played. Very weak teams rarely have the lead. Arizona has had nothing but an ocean of bad luck and it is bound to change soon. Whether its luck improves here or not remains to be seen but one thing we know for sure is that the Jets are not playing good enough to be priced in this range.
Winnipeg comes in with a misleading 9-4-3 record; misleading because they are constantly getting outplayed. Over the past week, Winnipeg went 2-1-1 with only regulation loss over that span occurring at Las Vegas, 5-2. However, in its 5-4 OT loss in Montreal, the Jets were outshot 50-23. The Jets have been out-chanced in six of its last seven games and in 72% of their games this season. The Jets overall Corsi +/- rating is -111, which is the third worst mark in the NHL, ahead of only Colorado and New Jersey. Winnipeg has recorded a weak 24, 19, 27, 23, 26, 29 and 21 shots on net respectively over its last seven games. Obviously the Jets are capable of winning here. This is still a dangerous offensive team that can score in bushels. However, the Jets record is much better than their performances and what we have here are two teams in line for a correction. Winnipeg also returns home from a three-game trip to Montreal, Las Vegas and Arizona on Saturday night. Incidentally, Arizona outshot Winnipeg 30-21, but lost 3-1. Tonight might be different, as the Jets will honour Dale Hawerchuk in a pre-game ceremony and that's just another angle we like to try and exploit.
Dave Essler
Davidson -11
UNCW has a new coach after Keatts left for NC State. Davidson lost Jack Gibbs, their all-world PG, but in the first tune up against Charleston Southern his replacement, FR Kellen Grady shot 7-10 from behind the arc. That's good enough for me. UNCW lost their starting backcourt and shooting forward, and they play pretty quick which should make losing their backcourt a bit more of a process with a new HC, and they rely on three's which is always something I've got a hard time backing on the road, especially smaller schools. They (UNCW) don't get to the FT line a lot, which over the course of a game adds up. In the end I see UNCW as having one way to win and that's get hot from deep - that's not enough. And if this games sees Davidson at the line much, they always shoot well from there and shot 82% in their first game. So, I see the blowout here.
Alabama -14
I like the OVER here quite a bit but it's not widely available. Lipscomb doesn't TOTALLY suck but they play super-fast and shoot three's - Alabama will be without Riley Norris again, but that didn't matter at Memphis. They WILL have 5* FR PG Collin Sexton and it's their first home game in what is expected to be a very good season, hence a reasonable crowd behind them. Lipscomb has been known to be sloppy with the ball, and of course Alabama/Avery Johnson have bee know to create a fair bit of defensive pressure.
Rob Vinciletti
Delaware vs Bradley
Play: Bradley
The Braves looked solid again on defense allowing just 28% from the field in an opening game win over I.U.P.U. They return all 5 starters from last year which give them solid experience. Bradley has covered 4 straight as a home favorite and 7 of 8 off a spread win. Tonight they take on Delaware who is in a negative early season play against system that pertains to their 13 point win at Richmond as a 10 point dog. Look for Bradley to get the win and cover tonight.
Ken Thomson
Michigan St vs Duke
Play: Duke -115
Duke is ( 9-1 ) vs. Michigan State last ten meetings. Until Coach Izzo can find a way to get his kids to close out vs. Coach K., I'll play the Blue Devils with Bagley & Allen. Game in Chicago will bring a huge Spartan crowd but still like the Blue & White on the court by 5-10 points in this one!
Eric Schroeder
My free play will be on the Ohio Bobcats, who arrive in Akron with an 8-2 overall mark, a 5-1 Mid American Conference record and arguably the best offense in the league. The Zips (5-5, 4-2) have no shot at hanging with the 'Cats.
Ohio, which averages 40.9 points per game, ranks No. 1 in scoring and No. 2 overall in averaging 435.2 yards per contest. The 'Cats have a power rushing game that wears down opponents en route to 248.9 yards per game.
On the other side of the ball, the Bobcats have a stringent defense, and should be able to restrict Akron to limited production tonight.
The Zips have the second-worst offense in the MAC, and third-worst scoring offense, averaging 21.8 points per game.
Take the road team here, as Ohio rolls to the big win and cover.
2* OHIO
Jack Brayman
My complimentary winner is on the Central Michigan Chippewas (6-4 overall, 4-2 MAC) over the hapless Kent State Golden Flashes (2-8, 1-5).
Central Michigan can put some points up, as we've seen the past few weeks, but this is more about how bad Kent State is, regardless of it being at home.
The Flashes average 11.6 points per game - dead last in the league.
The Flashes allow 35.5 points per game - third-worst in the league.
The Flashes average 256.2 yards per game - worst in the league.
The Flashes allow 425.9 yards per game - third-worst in the league.
Are you getting the point here? Kent State is horrible, and will struggle tonight.
5* CMU
Tommy Brunson
Going to play this Central Michigan-Kent State game to land Over the total Tuesday night at Dix Stadium.
Central Michigan has caught a bit of an updraft, as the Chipps have posted 133 points in their last 3 games - ALL 3 of them going Over the total.
Kent State has allowed 140 points in their last 3 games - ALL 3 of those games landing Over the total.
Third season in a row these MAC teams are facing off, with the previous pair landing Over the total. In fact, each of the last 4 series showdowns have gone Over the total, and I say this one lands just Over the total as well.
Central Michigan-Kent State Over the total on Tuesday.
3* CENTRAL MICHIGAN-KENT STATE OVER
Joey Juice
Boston continues to do whatever it takes to win, and despite Kyrie Irving's offensive talents, it's their defense that's been responsible for their success. The Celtics have allowed just one team to score a hundred or more during this 12 game winning streak. The bottom line here folks is when you can hold the opposition to 80s and 90s, you going to put yourself in a much easier position to win ballgames as the Celtics have shown.
Meanwhile, those bums from Brooklyn will be without Russell, and that is sure to hurt their point production, not to mention a bigger factor that will hurt the Nets point production, the Celtics stiff defense.
When I look at the numbers, the under becomes even easier to bet on. The under is 5-0 in the Celtics’ last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest. The under is 5-0 in the Celtics' last five against Atlantic Division opponents.
The under is 8-1 in the Celtics' last nine against an opponent who scored at least 100 points in their last game. Finally, the under is 5-1 in the Celtics last six overall.
On the Brooklyn side, the under is 5-1 in their last six against teams with a winning record. The under is 4-1 in BK's last five at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the under is 4-1 in Nets last five against the Atlantic Division.
Your free play is under the total.
2* BOSTON-BROOKLYN UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free winner is icy, with the Minnesota Wild getting it done at home against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Minnesota returns to the Xcel Energy Center on a two-game winning streak, while boasting a suddenly hot Jason Zucker.
With a 3-0 win over Montreal and 1-0 victory at Philly, Zucker accounted for all four goals, while netminder Devan Dubnyk was perfect between the pipes.
The momentum will carry over to the Twin Cities, as the Flyers are mired in losing streaks 10-25 on the road (dating back to last season), 2-5 against Western Conference foes and 0-4 against losing teams.
Lay the home number here.
5* WILD
Pro Computer Gambler
Spurs vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +7
TEAM TREND OF THE DAY: The Dallas Mavericks are 101-68-2 ATS since 2008 off of a road loss.
NBA SYSTEM OF THE DAY: Since 2012, teams off of blow out wins of 25 pts or more with a line larger than last game are a trap at 123-146-1 ATS - Fade the Spurs!
Dave Price
Central Michigan vs. Kent State
Play: Kent State +18½
Central Michigan has now won and covered 3 straight games coming into this contest with Kent State. The Chippewas clinched a bowl berth with their 42-30 win over Eastern Michigan last week which was aided by 5 turnovers by the Eagles. Now with bowl eligibility clinched, I think the Chippewas are primed for a letdown here against Kent State. The Golden Flashes are not a great team, but I think they will show some pride here because it is Senior Night and this is a veteran squad with a bunch of seniors. I wouldn't be surprised if you see the best performance of the season from the Golden Flashes, and that should be enough to cover this lofty 18.5-point spread. Central Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game.
John Martin
Spurs vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +7
The price is too good to pass up on the Dallas Mavericks here at home tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. The Mavericks have only covered the spread in two of their 14 games this season. With that ATS failure thus far means the betting public wants nothing to do with them, so they are going to be getting extra points on the spread. I think they can hang with the short-handed Spurs, who are already without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard, plus Danny Green is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury. Three of the four meetings between these teams last season were decided by 7 points or less.
Doug Upstone
Nebraska-Omaha vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico -11
Here is strong system to consider for Tuesday on the hardwood. Play On home teams as a favorite (NEW MEXICO) after scoring 95 points or more, with just two starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season. In the past five years this is 27-5 ATS, 84.4%!
Harry Bondi
AKRON (+11) over Ohio University
Following last week’s surprising 38-10 blowout win over Toledo as a three-point underdog, Ohio U can punch a ticket to the MAC Championship with a win on the road here tonight, but we’ll call for a huge letdown fpr the Bobcats off that win. At 5-5, Akron is still fighting for a bowl bid and gets back the services of Thomas Woodson tonight after the QB was suspended last week, With Woodson behind center, the Zips have been feisty, covering six of their last seven. The last two meetings between these teams have been competitive, low-scoring affairs decided by single digits and we expect the same kind of game tonight. Take the home dog!