Free Picks and Premium for Tuesday, November 15th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
DELAWARE AT LA SALLE
PLAY: LA SALLE -15.5
Here’s a game between two teams that finished dead last in their respective leagues last season. Delaware bottomed out and finally made the decision to end the Monte Ross era. La Salle figured to be down last season and the Explorers were absolutely that.
I see La Salle being vastly improved this season, and I was impressed with what I saw in the OT loss to Big Five rival Temple on Friday evening. The Explorers showed energy and athleticism, and I would suspect they’re likely to make some noise in the A-10 this season.
Delaware is now coached by Martin Ingelsby, who was an assistant under Mike Bray at Notre Dame for the last 13 years. I like this hire for the Blue Hens, as Ingelsby will certainly upgrade the recruiting at the school. I definitely feel that in time the Blue Hens will become a solid CAA program. But for this season, the losses are going to outweigh the wins for Delaware. I just don’t see the material being there to avoid being at or very near the bottom of the Colonial.
The Blue Hens are off to a 2-0 start, but the wins were against Bradley and Golden-Beacom, with the latter being a small school in Delaware that I must confess I didn’t know existed. I’m not putting much stock into either of these wins.
The key tonight is tempo as Delaware can’t get into a run and gun battle with the Explorers. But my belief is that veteran head coach John Giannini is going to be far more willing to push the ball more than he did last year with a less talented roster.
Delaware can hang here if they slow things to a crawl and they hit high percentage shots. But I don’t see that being likely over 40 minutes, and I expect the Explorers to eventually pull away to a convincing win. I prefer La Salle minus the points in this one.
Scott Spreitzer
Hawks vs. Heat
Play: Hawks -6
Miami has lost five in a row and playing its first back-to-back games of the season after an exhausting defensive effort last night in a 94-90 loss at San Antonio. The Spurs were held to 26.2 percent shooting and committed 11 turnovers in the second half as they almost blew an 18-point lead. Predictably Miami shot poorly itself both from the field (43.5 percent) and free throw line (12 of 21). Also, the Heat made just 4 of 16 three-point attempts. Miami is averaging only 89.6 points in the five losses. Atlanta has won four straight (4-0 ATS) and has had two days off since Saturday's 117-96 win over Philadelphia. Tim Hardaway Jr. came off the bench to lead the Hawks with 20 points against the 76ers while his team shot 50.5 percent. The Hawks have averaged 113.5 points during the winning streak and are 7-2 ATS this season compared to 3-6 ATS for Miami.
Brandon Powell
Wisconsin vs. Creighton
Play: Wisconsin Pk
I am backing Wisconsin PK as my Free Pick for Tuesday November 15th. Look for Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig to be difference makers in an early road test against Creighton. Creighton will once again lean on Maurice Watson Jr., but I suspect this tough Wisconsin defense to be up for the challenge. Wisconsin is the better team up and down and that will show itself Tuesday night.
Matt Josephs
Kent State vs. Bowling Green
Play: Under 54½
It's pretty much a bad bet to take a MAC under and I may regret this, but I think we've got one on Tuesday night. Kent State has one of the worst offenses in college football averaging just 21.9 points and 306.5 yards per game. The Golden Flashes have passed for over 200 yards just once since October 1st. Bowling Green's defense isn't very good, but I don't know is KSU has the pieces to take advantage. What I do know is that Kent State can play some defense holding four of their last five MAC opponents to 24 points or less. Bowling Green's offense is underwhelming especially since they love to turn the ball over. They are actually coming off a winning effort last week, but it was because of six Akron turnovers. These two have played two straight unders in the series and the Falcons have gone under in eight of their last 10 November games. I will hold my nose and take the under in this one.
Sean Murphy
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Under 5½
This has been a high-scoring series on this ice in recent years but I don't see that trend continuing here.
The Caps went with backup goaltender Philip Grubauer in Carolina on Saturday and got blasted by a 5-1 score. Braden Holtby will be back between the pipes on Tuesday and that should lead to a much different result.
The Blue Jackets have enjoyed a couple of huge offensive outbursts this season, scoring 10 goals against the Canadiens and eight against St. Louis in their most recent game, catching both of those opponents flat-footed. That won't be the case here.
Despite those two high-scoring results, the Blue Jackets have actually posted a lopsided 4-9 o/u record to this point.
Rob Vinciletti
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Play: Atlanta Hawks -6.5
The Hawks have been rolling to start the season and take on a Miami team that has no rest after playing the Spurs last night. Home dogs with no rest like the Heat that were road dogs of 5 or more and are taking on a team that won and covered at home and scored 110 or more have failed to cover over 80% of the time since 1995. The winning team in Atlanta games has covered 7 of 8 and the winier in Miami games has covered all 8. Look for the Hawks to soar past Miami tonight.
Power Sports
Atlanta vs. Miami
Pick: Atlanta
Not enough people are talking about the Hawks right now. Lost among the headlines about the Clippers, Cavaliers and Warriors, Atlanta is my own #2 ranked team in the league so far (behind LA) and it's no surprise that the top two teams in defensive efficiency also occupy my top two spots overall. The Hawks are outscoring foes by 11.2 pts per 100 possessions and are giving up only .958 points per possession. You'll want to consider laying the points here.
This is a bad spot for Miami, who has to play in San Antonio Monday. Win or lose that game, you have to wonder what they'll have left in the tank. Plus, it's a road game against the Spurs. The Heat really figure to struggle to score against Atlanta, not only because of the Hawks' defensive prowess, but also due to their own offensive ineptitude. Entering Monday, Miami is 29th in offensive efficiency, ahead of only the perpetually last place 76ers.
Atlanta has won and covered four straight games and is 6-1 ATS as a favorite this year. Miami is 0-4 SU and ATS its L4 and just 1-5 ATS as an underdog so far (entering play Monday). So you can see which way this one is trending. I expect the Hawks to win by double digits.
Jim Feist
Nets at Lakers
Pick: Under
A high NBA total and Brooklyn is in town ranked #12 in points scored, but #20 in three-point shooting. The Under is 5-0-1 in the Nets last six contests vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The young L.A. Lakers are #18 in long range shooting, 8-3 under the total against the Eastern Conference. The Under is 9-2-1 in the Lakers last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. And when these teams clash the Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings.
Larry Ness
Nets vs. Lakers
Pick: Lakers
The Lakers open a four-game homestand Tuesday night beginning with the Brooklyn Nets at Staples Center, who lost Monday night in this building, 127-95 to the now 10-1 LA Clippers. The Nets are likely to be without PG Jeremy Lin (15.0-6.2 APG), who is expected to miss his sixth consecutive game with a hamstring injury. Center Brook Lopez (leading scorer at 19.4 PPG) was rested on the front end of the back-to-back and will be back in the lineup against the Lakers. The Nets figured beating the Clippers was unlikely and not having Lopez was a nonfactor in terms of Monday's dismal defeat. First-year coach Kenny Atkinson chalked it up to being one of those nights that happen during a long season. "Sometimes in the NBA you've got to move on right away," Atkinson said afterward. "Their cohesiveness is impressive — up to us to compete."
The Lakers got blown out 125-99 on Sunday by the Minnesota Timberwolves on the road but will try to regroup at home. That’s not out of the question, as the surprising Lakers are 6-5 to open the season, including 3-1 SU and ATS at home, with wins over the Rockets and Warriors (!!). Luke Walton has made a YUGE difference early on, for this legendary franchise which enters 2016-17 off seasons of 27, 21 and 17 wins. The team's backcourt depth is pretty special, as starters Russell (15.4-3.0-4.7) and Young (14.2) are backed up by Williams (16.5) and Clarkson (15.0). Upfront, PF Randle (13.9-8.2) looks like a “keeper” but Deng (6.3-5.8 ) is nowhere near the player he once was, while Mozgov (7.8-5.1) will never be anything but a journeyman. The Lakers are waiting for SF Ingram (6.8-3.0), the No. 2 overall pick of the 2016 draft, to develop and to take the “next step,” LA will need a center.
The pick: The Lakers may not be a playoff team this season but they are getting close, while the Nets are going absolutely nowhere. Brooklyn ranks 28th in points allowed (109.5 per game) and that hardly bodes well against a Lakers team which has averaged 113.2 PPG here at Staples Center.
David Banks
Duke Blue Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Pick: Pick: Kansas Jayhawks +2.5
Two of the top three college basketball teams in the nation will meet on Tuesday night in the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden. Top-ranked Duke comes into the game fresh off two wins to open the season. The Blue Devils beat up on Marist (94-49) and Grand Canyon (96-61) over the weekend in preparation for the showdown Tuesday night.
Junior point guard Grayson Allen once again leads Duke. Allen averaged over 20 points in the twoopening games. The Blue Devils heralded freshmen – Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, and Marques Bolden – have yet to play and likely will not be ready to go against the Jayhawks. Their absence will prevent an early season showdown between two of the most highly recruited players in the nation a year ago. Giles, a 6-11 monster, and Kansas guard Josh Jackson were thought by many to be the two best high school players in the country last year.
Kansas will be led by senior guard Frank Mason III who scored a career-high 30 points in the Jayhawks season-opening loss to No. 11 Indiana. The Jayhawks and Hoosiers battled to overtime before Indiana took control in a 103-99 win. Mason added nine assists and seven rebounds and Kansas is deep with Devonte Graham (16 against Indiana) and Landen Lucas (11 points, 7 rebounds).
Scott Rickenbach
Michigan State at Kentucky
Play Michigan St
Apparently the Spartans don't even need to show up for this game. The very first numbers to show up on this one had the Wildcats as a 4 point choice. They have since doubled to where Kentucky is now an 8 point favorite in this game. I am not buying it. Sure the Spartans were in Hawaii Friday and Manhattan is a long way from Honolulu! However, Michigan State has had plenty of time for travel and to adjust their body clocks. Both of these teams are rather young but Kentucky particularly is inexperienced on the floor and now playing at Madison Square Garden. Also, this situation isn't very favorable for the Wildcats from a scheduling standpoint either. They're already playing their 3rd game in 5 days and what is also concerning for Kentucky is they've made only 26.5% of their three pointers even though they've played two weak teams to start the season. Also, the Wildcats have allowed their foes to connect on 43% of their shots from the field while the Spartans held Arizona to just 38.5% from the floor in their season opening loss. That was a tough defeat for multiple reasons as Michigan State had jumped out to a 17-2 lead in the game plus they eventually lost it on a late coast to coast drive for the winning bucket. The point is that the Spartans, known for playing tough D and crashing the boards, are going to play with an extra edginess and grittiness for coach Tom Izzo tonight as they look to shake off that opening night loss. That makes the big points well worth grabbing in this spot. Kentucky is 1-5 SU and ATS in a neutral court game with a posted total between 150 and 154.5 points while the Spartans have a 9-2 SU record in those game. Sparty for the cover in this one!
Dave Essler
Bulls / Blazers Over 213
No clue what this line does - it could come back on it's own but I despise hooks, regardless, and since we want plays out as early as we can - here it is. This one might be a bit obvious and perhaps square. Without Aminu Portland's defense simply has to suffer, and clearly their rebounding, which could speed the game up since the Bulls will run. Chicago has too many scorers to defend here, so they'll get theirs. Portland, from last nights' memory, hasn't played a home game that had less points than this - hence obvious, but a winner IMO. They'll have a quarter (hopefully only one) that's filled with turnovers and bricks, but they ought to have a 60 or two in their as well. My ONLY concern is the fourth quarter if it's real tight and things slow down, but we cannot have everything. Both teams are rested, and we have found out what fresh legs mean.
Greg Shaker
Maryland / Georgetown Under 156.5
I'm not sure what's going on here but I suspect some Smancy Fancy Totals Player hit this one hard OVER and then word got out to JOE and he did the same. This number opened 148. It's time to play UNDER. Last year's game featured a posted total of 138, the game landed on 146 mostly due to late fouling. GT is supposed to be higher paced this season but the fact is both teams play better than average Defense and Maryland especially likes to play conservative when they travel. (22-7-2 UNDER On the Road) This number has simply gotten Too Big for It's Britches and I feel comfortable playing all the way down to 153..
Ben Burns
Detroit -105
The Wings should be highly motivated for this one. Not only did the Lightning beat them already this season but the Lightning also eliminated them from the playoffs last season. This should be a good spot to exact a small measure of revenge. While the Wings have had the past couple of day's off, the Lightning were busy beating up on the Isles last night. That's noteworthy as they're only 9-19 (-13.8 ) the past 28 times that they played the second of b2b games. It should also be noted that TB is only 2-5 its last seven after scoring four or more goals. With the schedule and venue in their favor, take a look at the Red Wings on Tuesday.