Vegas Butcher
TOR @ CLE -6
The Cavs have already beaten the Raptors this year, when they played them on the road on 10/28. They were road favorites of -2.5 points. With H/A adjustments you’d expect them to be closer to -8.5/-9 in the rematch, but that’s not the case. Clearly the bookmakers are expecting a strong effort from Toronto in this one. Even with 75% of all the bets on the home team, the line hasn’t budged. The Cavs are only 1-4 ATS at home, but this is the kind of game they tend to take seriously. Line feels a bit ‘short’ though, and depending on how this one goes tonight, fading Cavs tomorrow on a b2b/3in4 spot might be a better way to go. Lean: CLE -6
ATL @ MIA +6.5
Miami is on a b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after a close loss @ San Antonio yesterday. Tough scheduling spot is one thing but having to travel the morning of the game makes it even more difficult. They’ll take on a rested Hawks team that had 2-days off, after being at home for 5 straight days. A rested Howard should be able to help contain Whiteside’s dominance in the paint, and Atlanta’s fresher legs could be a factor in this one. Lean: ATL -6.5
CHA @ MIN +2
The Hornets are 5-1 ATS as favorites this season, indicating to me that this team is ‘better’ than the bookmakers have expected them to be so far. They’re off two very close losses, to TOR and CLE, the two best teams in the conferences. Now they’ll take on a 3-6 Minnesota team. Wolves’ 3 wins have come against LAL, ORL, and MEM, three teams that are average at best. Against a top-4 East team, it’ll be much more difficult. Expect a strong effort from Charlotte as no contending team wants to lose 3 in a row. Lean: CHA -2
CHI @ POR -3
The Blazers are 1-5 ATS at home though they’re 4-2 SU in those games. The lines have typically been inflated a bit on them, though tonight’s number indicates two even teams. Portland is playing their 3rd straight home game while Chicago is starting a 6-game roadie, which starts in the West and finishes off in Philly on Friday after Thanksgiving. Talk about a tough schedule ahead! They’re fully rested for this one though. Portland is without Aminu which is actually a big loss. I expect a close game. Lean: CHI +3
BKN @ LAL -7
The Nets are 7-3 ATS this season while the Lakers are 8-3 ATS. Both teams are playing pretty good basketball and exceeding expectations. Nets are playing their 4th straight road game and are on a b2b/3in4 spot here. They don’t have to travel though as yesterday’s game was against the Clippers in LA. Still this isn’t an easy spot. One thing to keep in mind is that Nets rested Lopez yesterday, so he’ll be a full-go tonight. Lean: LAL -7
Wunderdog
CS Northridge @ Stanford
Pick: Under 163
Cal State Northridge shot the lights out in their first two games, at over 50% in each. But in this one, I think they will be looking at a team that is interested in defending. Stanford always brings the "D," especially on their home floor where opponents have averaged just 63.4 points per game in their last 200 home contests. They just showed Harvard how difficult it is to play in Palo Alto, holding the Crimson to 37% shooting. Playing as a home favorite last season, only one opponent scored more than 73 points, so getting this one to push into the 160s will be problematic, as Stanford isn't a push-the-offense type of team.
Brett Atkins
Bowling Green stopped a 7 game losing streak last Wednesday as they sprang the upset at Akron, 38-28 as the double-digit road dog. Now back at home the Falcons bring a 3 game series winning streak into tonight's game against Kent State.
The Golden Flashes gave undfeated Western Michigan a handful last Tuesday, leading 14-13 at the break as they wound up covering as the 3 touchdown underdog, 37-21.
I like Kent to stop the series skid at 3 games tonight, as they are playing on normal rest for this one, while BG goes on one less day of rest and practice.
Bowling Green's defense is still giving up too many yards and too many points, and Kent State quarterback Nick Holley has been a revelation running the football for Paul Haynes' team.
The road team has covered the last 4 in this series, and the Golden Flashes are on a 5-2 spread run in the series as well.
This is Haynes' 4th season at the helm at Kent State, and he has yet to beat Bowling Green. With Holley doing the damage, look for Haynes to notch his first series win over Bowling Green.
2* KENT STATE
Brad Wilton
Good value tonight with the road team, as Chicago is playing hockey on another level right now. The Blackhawks just edged the Canadiens on Sunday at home, 3-2 to make it 8 wins in their last 9 games!
Winnipeg plays this one off a home shootout win over the Kings, the Jets 4th win in their last 6 games, so as you can see the host is playing some decent hockey at this writing as well. Problem is, Winnipeg has not been able to dent their West rivals that often of late, as Chicago has skated to series wins in 4 straight and 6 of the last 7 meetings overall.
The Blackhawks have also won 9 of their last 10 trips to Winnipeg.
Patrick Kane scored on one of the sickest goals of the season on Sunday, as Kaner is starting to heat up once again as he usually does.
Right now the 'Hawks are playing to well to go against, so go with as Chicago makes it a 9-1 run their last 10 games.
4* CHICAGO
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Tuesday night is on the North Carolina Tar Heels, laying the points against the Long Beach State 49ers.
The 49ers have been on the road, and continue their junket tonight against the sixth-ranked team in the country. By the time this trip ends, Long Beach State will have traveled 4,492 miles after playing Wichita State, North Carolina and Louisville before returning to Southern California to play UCLA.
I know Long Beach State was the favorite to win the Big West Conference in 2016-17, as picked by the media panel in the Preseason Big West Poll, but the Niners will struggle to find consistency and a groove against the mighty Tar Heels.
Carolina is 2-0 after knocking Chattanooga, the preseason favorites in the Southern Conference and an NCAA Tournament from a year ago with five returning starters, 97-57, on November 13th. UNC has scored at least 95 points in consecutive games for the first time since the 2011-12 season.
Four Tar Heels have scored in double figures in both games (Joel Berry II, Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks and Tony Bradley) and one (Kennedy Meeks) has double-figure rebounds in both games.
This is a mismatch tonight, as the Heels will dismantle Long Beach State.
5* NORTH CAROLINA
DAVE PRICE
Hawks/Heat Under 200.5
The Key: The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA this season. The Hawks rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Heat rank 6th. The Heat have scored 95 or fewer points in 5 consecutive games and are averaging just 89.6 points per game during this stretch. They've been without starting PG Goran Dragic, and he's questionable to return tonight. Dwight Howard has made Atlanta a much stronger defensive team this season. Miami is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 home games off 5 or more consecutive losses. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The UNDER is 25-10 in Heat's last 35 vs. a team with a winning record.
JACK JONES
Blazers -3
The Portland Trail Blazers are absolutely rolling right now. They have won five of their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers, who currently have the best record in the NBA. In fact, two of their four losses this season have come to those same Clippers.
I think getting the Blazers as only 3-point home favorites is a nice discount here against the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls have lost four of their last seven, including a 13-point home loss to the Knicks and a 17-point road loss to the Hawks. Their only wins during this stretch came against the Magic, Heat and Wizards (without John Wall).
Chicago is 3-13 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the past two seasons. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Portland.
JIMMY BOYD
Central Michigan +1
Clearly things haven’t gone as planned for Central Michigan after that strong 3-0 start. However, I think this is a spot where we are getting value and will get a big effort from the home team.
Central Michigan clearly isn’t getting a lot of love right now. Not only are they 2-5 SU in their last 7, but they are 1-6 ATS during the stretch. Even with that big win over Oklahoma State, I don’t think the public will trust them against the Bobcats. This Ohio team is 6-1 in their last 7 and have covered 3 straight. That includes a 31-26 win at Toledo two weeks ago as a 15-point dog.
The key here is that there’s still a lot to play for Central Michigan. While it’s not a guarantee they get a bowl invite, the Chippewas need 1 more win to get to 6 on the season. Not only does that make them bowl eligible, but it ensures they won’t have a losing regular season.
With that said, that’s not the biggest motivator for this team. That would be this being the final home game of the season. This team has a lot of seniors who will want to go out with a bang in their final home game. I also look for a special effort here to make sure senior quarterback Cooper Rush goes out in style. Rush will at worst leave the school as their No. 2 all-time passer.
Speaking of Rush going out in style, this is a great matchup for the Chippewas offense. Central Michigan ranks 27th in the country in passing at 279.3 ypg. They will be going up against an Ohio defense that ranks 107th against the pass, allowing 265.7 ypg.
It’s also worth pointing out that the Chippewas are no slouches on the defensive side of the ball. They are 34th in the country in total defense, giving up just 363 ypg. You could make a strong argument that Central Michigan has the edge on both sides of the ball here. When you add in it being their home finale at night on ESPN2, I think it’s the smart play in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG +113 over Chicago
OT included. We are very aware of how well the Blackhawks are playing. They are among the hottest teams in the NHL with eight wins in nine games and they have picked up points in 11 straight games. However, the numbers strongly suggest that Chicago is not supposed to be this good so regression is inevitable. The Blackhawks have been outshot in six of their past nine. They rank 24th in Corsi for per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. The Blackhawks luck factor is through the roof meaning they lead the league in shooting percentage and save percentage combined. Yeah, the Blackhawks are good but the bubble is going to burst real soon and we’re betting it occurs here.
The Winnipeg Jets are more than capable of defeating any team in this league. In terms of talent, depth, quickness, physicality and the ability to sustain pressure, you would be hard pressed to find a team that is better. Mark Scheifele not only leads the way with his outstanding production, but in his work ethic too, which is second to nobody in the National League. Scheifele’s refusal to lose attitude and desire to be the best has to rub off on his teammates. If this kid was in another market, he would be a superstar because that is how good he is. In any event, Coach Paul Maurice appears to have made a commitment to one goaltender and that’s a huge step in the right direction. Connor Hellebucyk has been in net for five of the Jets’ last six games and he’ll go again here. Over that span, the Jets have one loss to the Rangers and have picked up nine out of a possible 12 points. The Jets are simply too good to be be taking back any price at home and so these opportunities are very likely going to be far and few between once this market catches up.
Ottawa +136 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. We're not sure what the Flyers have done this season to be priced like this. Philly has lost three of four. They’re the only team to lose to Detroit over the past two weeks, They have allowed 14 goals against in those three losses and it appears that they’ll be without Wayne Simmonds here, a key players that provides energy and production. The Flyers have a league worst 3.63 goals allowed per game. They've lost the services of goaltender Michael Neuvirth and now Steve Mason will have to handle the load. Mason already has a horrible .880 save percentage and now he's got prospect Anthony Stolarz looking over his shoulder. Philly has played the 23rd ranked schedule in the NHL and it is just 1-5 against top-16 competition. Yeah, the Flyers are dangerous in that they can score goals but they are a bigger risk because they can’t prevent them.
The Senators are 9-5-1 but they are not getting any market respect. Perhaps it's because they've lost three of their last five games but a closer looks shows us they have been playing really well. Ottawa has fired at least 30 pucks on net in six of it's last nine games. Goaltender Craig Anderson has allowed two goals or less in five of his last six starts and he's playing on another level right now. Ottawa has played the ninth most difficult schedule this season and they are 4-5 versus top-16 teams. The Senators have had a goal scoring problem of late but this Flyers team could be just what the doctor ordered. Ottawa’s goal scoring woes are not that concerning because it is getting chances and it’s only a matter of time before they start burying some of them. At the very worst, give the Sens a 50/50 shot of winning and therefore give us back this sweet price.
New Jersey +118 over DALLAS
OT included. The Dallas Stars had 109 points last year and finished first overall in the West. Only the Capitals had more points. Dallas has also picked up five out of a possible six points in its last three games, all on the road. They are now at home. Why then, are the Stars a mere -130 favorite over a team that does not get a lot of market attention. New Jersey played here last March, which wasn’t long ago and the Stars were a -215 favorite. They are almost half that price here and that is something we would recommend you not ignore. Dallas might very well be the sucker play of the day. Furthermore, the Stars have the second best goaltending here by a wide margin and they also return home from a five-game trip.
The Devils have allowed two goals or less in four straight, all wins. Very quietly, they have become the Devils of old, that being a disciplined and methodical team that puts a heavy emphasis on frustrating the opposition in the neutral zone and taking advantage of opportunities. It’s more than that though. The Devils are an analytic power in that they create plenty and allow few. They are a top-ranked unit in every area of the game with the exception of scoring goals but again, they are generating many chances per game. The Devils will not only face a weak goalie here, they’ll face a team that is 0-5 against top-10 competition.
CAROLINA +140 over San Jose
OT included. The Sharks will play their fourth game of a six-game trip here after spending the weekend in Florida. After this one, they head to St. Louis to face a West rival so this looks like a spot in which they may overlook. The Sharkies are red-hot at the moment and while we take nothing away from them, playing in Carolina has been a spot for them that they have frequently overlooked in the past, as their three losses the last four trips here will attest to.
After a slow start and some unstable goaltending, the Hurricanes are back on our radar. Coach, Bill Peters has made a commitment to goaltender Cam Ward and it is paying off. Ward has started eight of the ‘Canes past nine games and he’s allowed two goals or fewer in five of those games and the Hurricanes have picked up points in four of six, including as 5-1 win over the Capitals on Sunday. That’s a good win that could ignite a run. Aside from that, the ‘Canes are among the leaders in every key puck possession metric. They have outshot seven of their last 10 opponents and many of those were by a wide margin. They outshot the Caps 38-21 and are now in the best form they have been in all season long. As a dog at home, the Hurricanes have nothing but appeal, especially at prices like this.
Calgary +155 over MINNESOTA
OT included. While the Wild may seem warm, they are just 8-6 overall and just 2-2 versus top-16 competition after playing the 22nd ranked schedule in the NHL. Furthermore, the Wild return home from a four-game trip after playing in Colorado. Pittsburgh, Philly and Ottawa. They only won once in regulation in those four games and they have scored two goals or less in four of their past five games. The Wild certainly have more appeal than the struggling Flames right now, but returning home from a trip is almost always a tough game so this would not be the right time to lay a big price with this host.
The Flames stock has hit rock bottom after four straight losses and being outscored 17-4 over that span. However, the Flames will be happy to get out of town and away from the media scrutiny. What we like about the Flames is that they are not allowing the opposition many chances. In fact, the Flames have allowed a mere 28, 21 and 22 shots on net over their past three games respectively. That’s a good place to start and if Brian Elliott can get his confidence back, these Flames will suddenly become a very difficult out. The Flames are coming off a 4-1 loss to the Rangers (the hottest in the league) but outshot New York 36-28. They also outshot Dallas 31-22 in a 4-1 loss the game prior. The Flames are not getting outplayed, they are getting out-goaltendered and if that changes so too will their fortunes. At this price, in this spot. we’ll take our chances.
SPORTS WAGERS
CSU Bakersfield +17½ over ARIZONA
Remember Cal State Bakersfield and how they were a #15 seed last year in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament? Well that same team was an absolute menace against a Final Four qualifier in Oklahoma in the first round. Now, it’s a new season and the Roadrunners are back with a vengeance sporting an ensemble of starters that were integral in their qualification into the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament last season. The Roadrunners come in off a 94-56 win, sporting their signature blend of physical defense that garnered their reputation in the 2015-16 season. Now, the Roadrunners get an opportunity to square up to a team that they match-up well against.
First and foremost Arizona is a name brand school, thus, casual college basketball bettors are acutely aware of the Wildcats while seasonal fans for the most part are not even vaguely familiar with CSU-Bakersfield. What that means of course is a premium will be paid to back the Wildcats.
Arizona is the antithesis of a team like Bakersfield. It loves to score and it loves to play a typical fast-paced, finesse West Coast style of basketball. Some might argue that perhaps the Wildcats have changed their approach toward the game with a 65-63 win against Michigan State to kick off the 2016-17 season but we insist the jury is still out on this unit. Arizona was knocked out of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament last season by virtue of running into a roadblock in the mid-major juggernaut known as Wichita State. Arizona was shut down by the Shockers’ physical defense, as they were limited possessions and curtailed in scoring. Bakersfield models their game after the strategy that the Shockers employ. While Arizona may have beat Michigan State, let us not forget that Michigan State is perhaps still in recovery from laying one of the biggest eggs in tournament history when they fell to Middle Tennessee State in the First Round as a #2 seed after being regarded as one of the favorites to win the tournament outright. More than enough points here for Bakersfield to keep this close enough to stay within range.
CREIGHTON -103 over Wisconsin
The word on the street is that you don’t f**k with the Badgers. Wisconsin comes in ranked 9th in the country and they return all five starters and 99.8% of their minutes. That’s rather impressive when you consider that the Badgers made a run to the Elite Eight last year before being knocked out by the Tar Heels. The Badgers 79-47 opening game victory over Central Arkansas did nothing to lower their stock. Now the hyped up Badgers are evenly priced against a squad that played in the NIT last year and didn’t win it.
Creighton has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2014 but that should change this year. Coach Greg McDermott’s strong recruiting classes are about to pay off in a big way. Senior point guard Maurice Watson Jr. will again lead the way after averaging 14.1 points and 6.5 assists last season. There are plenty of other scoring options returning and joining the program too. Kansas State transfer-guard Marcus Foster comes over to form one of the best backcourt tandems in the country alongside Watson Jr, who is attracting plenty of attention from NBA scouts. The Bluejays are loaded with talent and depth in the backcourt. They’re a threat to win the Big East this year but most are focusing on how good Wisconsin might be instead of the Bluejays.
Some publications are calling the Badgers to win a National title. Time will tell and perhaps they are that good or perhaps they greatly overachieved last season. Remember, this was a young team last year that was only 12-6 at one point and lost to Western Illinois and Milwaukee among others. When a team greatly surpasses expectations, lofty expectations get attached to them the following year and often the team cannot live up to the hype. Now the Badgers will be put to the test in one of the most difficult venues to win in the country. A capacity crowd of 16,000+ will show up at CenturyLink Center here, providing the Bluejays with a great home-court advantage that we trust they will take advantage of.
Harry Bondi
OHIO +1 over Central Michigan
The Bobcats of Ohio have won three in a row and six of seven while covering five of their last seven games overall. Central Michigan, meanwhile, comes in on a three-game losing streak, both straight up and against the spread, and overall has gone a money-eating 1-6 ATS in its last seven games. Ohio U is also 5-0 ATS in its last five road games and has won and covered all three games this year when the pointspread was between +3 and -3. Ride the hot team and take Ohio!
MIKE ROSE
Kansas +2.5
Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham just might form the best backcourt in the entire country. Mason was a flat out stud leading the team with 30 points on 8-of-20 shooting, and made 13-of-15 free throws while dishing off nine assists against the Hoosiers. Graham battled leg cramps all game long, but still had enough in him to score 16 points while doing most of his damage at the charity stripe. The debut of super frosh Josh Jackson was forgetful to say the least with him scoring just nine points in a game that combined for 202. Grayson Allen and newcomer Frank Jackson will no doubt be thorns in the side of the Jayhawks all night long, but Self should have his defense ready to perform after just being embarrassed by Indiana both inside and out.
The Dookies were able to sleepwalk through a couple wins over the weekend. There won’t be any snoozing in this one with an amped up Kansas squad looking to atone for the sin it committed on the island last Friday night. So long as jet lag doesn’t play a major role, I can’t help but think Kansas will be up to the task of hanging with the top ranked team in the country. The Jayhawks have covered three of their last four as underdogs and gone a moneymaking 8-2 ATS in their L/10 non-con tilts. The Blue Devils check in 1-8 ATS their L/9 neutral site games. Look for KU to go all out against a Duke team they match up well against.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
Play: Atlanta Hawks -6.5
Major scheduling advantage for Atlanta in this one, as they have had two days off since cruising to a 21-point win over the 76ers. Atlanta also had two days off prior to that Sixers game, meaning they have played only once since Thursday. Talk about being well rested!
On the flip side, Miami just played in San Antonio last night. Not only did they have to travel back to Miami for this contest, but that Spurs game likely took something out of this Heat squad. Miami was down by 15 points at halftime, and had to expend some serious energy to close the final margin to four. This is also Miami's third game in four days, which only adds to the fatigue factor.
Atlanta has covered all seven games they've won this season. Miami is 1-6 ATS in the seven games they've lost, with the only SU loss/ATS win coming last night in San Antonio. Given the huge scheduling edge for the Hawks, coupled with the talent advantage, and I can't call for a Miami upset. And if Atlanta wins, it looks like we know who covers as well.
Alex Smith
Edmonton at Anaheim
Play: Edmonton +125
Pacific Division foes clash in Orange County tonight as the Anaheim Ducks host the Edmonton Oilers. The Ducks return home from a brief three-game road trip where they went 1-2. They now open a five-game homestand at the Honda Center where they’ve won four of their last six. Anaheim's core trio of veteran forwards Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler have combined for 11 goals and 27 assist thus far on the year. The team however checks in at just below league average with 2.56 gpg which ranks 18th in the NHL. Edmonton is looking to recapture the energy it had early in the season as they enter this contest on a three-game skid. Despite the hiccup, the Oilers currently sit atop the Pacific Division with 19 points. Superstar Connor McDavid has been electric in creating scoring chances for his teammates. His league-leading 14 assists have made linemates Jordan Eberle (5 goals) and former Duck Patrick Maroon (6 goals) feared threats while third liners Milan Lucic and Tyler Pltlick have combined for 10 goals and 5 assists. Anaheim has won eight of the last 10 meetings but coming off a rough road trip it could be tricky against a solid club that has won five of their last eight games away from home and three straight against division opposition. My numbers show we’re get around 20 cents worth of value on the road underdog which is what I’ll recommend for this evening’s contest.