Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, November 22nd, 2016

DAVE COKIN

IDAHO STATE VS EASTERN KENTUCKY
PLAY: EASTERN KENTUCKY -1.5

This is a straight fade of Idaho State. I don’t know exactly what’s going on with this team, but something isn’t right. It appears as though the coaching staff and the players might not be on the same page right now. Maybe that changes today, but the Bengals are going to have to show me something or I’ll be looking play against them regularly until something connects.

Eastern Kentucky isn’t any good but they’ll get their preferred pace here and the Colonels should get lots off good looks from beyond the arc, which is pretty much their bread and butter.

Idaho State might actually be the more talented team, as Ethan Telfair is the best player on either team. Free throw shooting could be important in a projected close game, and the Bengals have been shockingly awful from the stripe so far, shooting only 50%. On the flip side, the Colonels are knocking those tosses down at 80% so far. That’s a nice potential edge, especially if we get lots of whistles in this game. I’ll spot the short number with Eastern Kentucky.

Ken Thomson

Arkansas St. -8

First year HC Grant McCasland has the Red Wolves playing well out of the gate with wins @Georgetown & vs. Chattanooga on a neutral- two seniors in Devin Carter & Donte Thomas are combining for 26 ppg & sharp shooters Rashad Lindasey & Connor Kern are( 15 for 26 ) from behind the arc to lead Arkansas State.

This should be a solid double digit win versus SIU-Edwardsville at home in the Convocation Center.

The Cougars have dropped back to back games to Texas State by 28 and by 18 to Southern Illionois and seem to be out of sync after starting the season with a one point win at Hawaii & a neutral court 9 point win vs. FAU.

Rob Vinciletti

Pelicans vs. Hawks
Play: Hawks -7½

The Hawks have covered 6 of 7 at home. New Orleans has failed to cover 26 of 38 off a dog win. Rested home favorites of 5 or more that failed to cover by 7+ points as a road favorite while scoring 90 or more are cashing 85% the last 20 seasons vs an opponent that scored 120 or more as a home dog. With the winning team in this series covering 19 of the last 20, we will stay at home with the Hawks tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Blazers vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -1½

Portland shot 57.6 percent in a 129-109 win at Brooklyn on Sunday and this was after shooting 39.5 percent its previous four games while losing three of them. We don't expect the Trail Blazers to come close to that percentage two games in a row as they play their fourth road game in six days. C.J. McCollum scored 33 points and Evan Turner added 19 points off the bench against the Nets and it broke an 0-7 ATS streak for the Blazers. New York has won three of its last four after a 104-94 win over Atlanta as the Knicks held the Hawks to 40.0 percent from the field. Carmelo Anthony led the Knicks with 31 points and Kristaps Porzingis added 19 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. Portland is 5-10 ATS this season and New York has covered the number its last four home games.

Ben Burns

Pittsburgh -10½

I successfully played against the Bulldogs in their last game, a 62-38 beatdown at Virginia. The Bulldogs suffered major personnel losses from last year's team. Making matters worse, they lost Makai Mason for the season. Now, they'll also be without forward Jordan Bruner, previously one of the top high school players out of South Carolina. Despite all that, the Bulldogs are still potentially capable of a good season in the Ivy League. However, competing against ACC teams, at least this early on the season, is asking a little much. With Saturday's loss, the Bulldogs are now 0-3 SU/ATS their last three against ACC teams, 4-7 ATS (2-9 SU) their last 11. The Panthers have NOT been a good favorite in recent seasons and they're already 0-1 ATS when laying points this season. They 'upset' Marquette last time out though and I see them following it up with a double-digit blowout tonight.

Frank Jordan

Blazers vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -2

Portland is 8-7 on the year, 4-4 on the road and 1-1 against the East as they take on the Knicks at MSG. New York is 6-7 on the season, 2-2 against the West, but at home they have played strong with a 5-2 record. Carmelo Anthony is still the top scorer for the Knicks, however he is only needed to put in about 23 points per game as Porzingis is helping with 20 points per game and Rose chips in with 15. Portland has a nice duo with Lillard and McCollum scoring a combined 50 points per game, but no other Trailblazer is scoring more than 12 points a game and Lillard has less than five assists per game when he is averaging over six per game in his career and coming off a career best 6.8 per game last year. Look for Lillard to get his points, but he will be alone as the Knicks shut down everyone else and get 15+ points from their big three in a 98-93 home victory.

Zack Cimini

Portland vs. New York
Pick: Over

The notion automatically here is an obvious steep total of 218.5. Portland is coming off a road win against Brooklyn in which they needed more offense to sustain their poor defense. I expect more of that on Tuesday against a Knicks team that is just as inefficient defensively. Role players from both teams have also seen key upticks in production that should benefit the necessary second unit points needed to cash a high total.

Jim Feist

Portland vs. New York
Pick: Over

New York is not great defensive team, but the offense is impressive behind Carmelo Anthony and 7-3 Portzingas. The Over is 4-1 in the Knicks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Uptempo Portland is in town, Top 10 in the NBA in scoring but #28 in points allowed. Portland is on a 16-6 run over the total and the over is 21-6 in Trail Blazers last 27 games following a spread win.

David Banks

Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
Pick: Central Michigan -1

Both Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan have lost three of their last four games, but it is the Chippewas that enter Tuesday’s game coming off a win. It was a big win too, over the MAC East division leader Ohio on the Bobcats home turf. With the 27-20 victory, CMU also earned bowl eligibility. The Eagles, on the other hand, blew a 21-point lead and were stopped on fourth down in overtime in a 31-24 loss to Northern Illinois, a team that is just 4-7 overall.

Both teams feature outstanding quarterbacks. The Chippewas Cooper Rush is second in the MAC in passing yards per game averaging 276. Rush has 3,036 passing yards and 23 touchdowns this season. The Eagles Brogan Roback is fifth in the MAC in total offense (273.2 per game). Roback leads an up-tempo offense that ran over 100 plays in a win over Ball State two weeks ago.

While Eastern Michigan has the advantage of playing at home, Central Michigan has the better defense. In the spread offense, pass-happy MAC, the Chips defense is third in total defense allowing opponents 361.5 total yards of offense per game. Both teams are bowl eligible and a win would go a long way in securing a better postseason opportunity.

Buster Sports

Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets +2

The Chicago Bulls are playing their 5th game of a 6 game road trip tonight in Denver and they will look to go 7 in a row ATS tonight. We will be playing the home club tonight and here are some of the reasons why. For the most part we very seldom like stepping in from of any streak, but we believe there are a few situations that make the Denver Nuggets the play tonight. One problem the Bulls have tonight is that they do not play well in Denver. They have actually lost 9 straight games in Denver. The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 7 nights, as a long road trip can take its toll on a team. Then throw in the fact that the Nuggets are on a 4 game ATS streak themselves. Last but not least there is that little problem of the high altitude which all spells trouble for the Bulls tonight in Denver. Backing our selection is the fact that the Home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings between the clubs. We had Denver as a 1 point home favorite with our numbers and the oddsmaker has Chicago 2 at the time of this writing. We see some value with the Nuggets as well.

Carmine Bianco

LYON at Dinamo Zagreb
Play: LYON -1

LYON won on Match Day 1 at home 3-0 and will look to keep their slim knockout stage hopes alive with a win here. With 3 Ligue 1 wins and a Champions League 1-1 draw away to Juventus their last 4 they seem to be getting healthy and back in form at the right time but likely a little late for CL advancement but third in the group will get them a crossover into the Europa League competition. I'll lean on LYON to get the win here and make Match Day 6 a little more interesting in Group H.

Sleepyj

Denver +1.5

I made my number for this contest Den -3...So grabbing +1.5 has some value for sure...Also like the fact that the Nuggets are well rested and at home,.. Bulls make another road start...Nuggets will be rough and tough tonight and if the Bulls struggle shooting the ball in the altitude late, the Nuggets will pull away late.

John Ryan

Flyers vs. Panthers
Play: Flyers +121

Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Philly is a solid 12-3 (+11.1 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 4-0 in their last 4 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals. Florida is a poor 1-8 (-8.9 Units) after playing 4 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons; 26-46 (-24.3 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games with Gallant as their coach.

Fundamental Discussion Points: If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Flyers. Philly has been slightly better on the road with the man advantage, converting seven of 26 opportunities, and was still third in the league overall (25 percent) through Sunday despite recent struggles. I believe Florida is smelling themselves too much with their hot streak going into this game.

Brandon Lee

Texas Tech vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn +6

I've already cashed a winning ticket on the Tigers, as I had them as a 7.5-point home favorite in a 83-65 win over Georgia State. Auburn covered again, beating Eastern Kentucky 85-64 as a 15.5-point favorite last time out. I really like this Tigers team, as they are young and full of talent. I also think that they have a coach that can get them to take that next step and compete in the top half of the SEC with Bruce Pearl. Texas Tech has started out 3-0 and are coming off a 19-13 season, while Auburn went just 11-20 a year ago. Note they too hosted Eastern Kentucky at home and won by a similar margin in a 90-71 win. That only strengthens my belief that these are two evenly matched teams and with this game being played on a neutral court, I'll gladly take the points with the Tigers.