Matt Josephs
Oregon State vs. Tulsa
Play: Oregon St +2½
I'm going to continue to fade Tulsa at least early on as they continue to gel after losing nine seniors. The Golden Hurricane lost to Jacksonville State and Wichita State before beating New Orleans. Now it's going to improve with Jaleel Wheeler back, but will it be enough against the 2-2 Beavers. Oregon State is led by Tres Tinkle and Drew Eubanks. I'd like this pick even more if Stephen Thompson Jr comes back from injury. There aren't a lot of ATS trends that help either side of this wager although you can say that OSU has covered seven of their last nine games after allowing 80 points or more. I just think the Beavers are the better team.
Jimmy Boyd
Blazers vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -1
New York is showing some great value here at home against the Blazers. The Knicks come in having won 3 of their last 4, including a 104-94 win at home against the Hawks as a 4-point dog last time out. Portland won 129-109 at Brooklyn in their last contest, but are just 1-3 in their last 4 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8.
The Knicks have been a good team to back when playing at home, as they are 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS in their 7 home games this season. New York is also a team that should continue to get better as we go forward, as they added in a lot of new pieces in the offseason.
Offensively the Knicks are clicking, as they come in averaging 102.4 ppg on the season (104.4 ppg at home) and that's a key factor here in going against the Blazers. Portland is just 1-8 ATS this season against strong offensive teams that are averaging 99+ ppg. The Blazers are also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games after a road win by 20 or more points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +118 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers return home from a successful four-game trip here that saw them win in Montreal, Ottawa and New York (Rangers). The Panthers lone loss on said trip was in Toronto. The Panthers are now a game over .500 at 10-9 but we’re not buying any of it. The Panthers continue to get outplayed by a wide margin almost every time they take the ice. Against Montreal, they were outshot 37-24 and won in extra time. When they defeated Ottawa 4-1, they were outshot 40-23 and out-chanced 38-18. Against the Rangers this past Sunday, Florida had six scoring chances and won 3-2 in extra time. We’re now going to pay more attention to the Panthers when they don’t get lucky, like when they were smoked in Toronto 6-1 between those three victories. The Panthers are getting most of their production from players that nobody has heard of like Jonathan Marchessault, Colton Sceviour and Denis Malgin to name a few. Jason Demers is the sixth leading scorer on this group! The Panthers rank 27th in scoring chances. They’re an average team whose chances of losing are greater than their chances of winning and when they’re favored against a superior team like they are here, we are going to step in almost every time.
By contrast, Philadelphia is coming off a 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay in which they allowed just 18 shots on net while firing away 32 of their own. The Flyers have badly outshot, out-chanced and outplayed four of their past five opponents, which includes firing away 36 shots on a stingy Wild team. Philly has also taken two minor penalties or less in four straight so a dedication to discipline or staying out of the box appears to be a point of emphasis. Meanwhile, the Flyers have drawn five penalties or more three times in their past eight games and four penalties or more five times. It’s highly unlikely that the Flyers get outplayed here. They are a top Cirsi for team and the numbers strongly suggest that Florida is the inferior team by a wide margin. As long as there is not a big discrepancy in goaltenders’ performances here, we should be in position to cash this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Towson -3 over B.C.
Boston College achieved the wrong kind of perfection last season. Along with its football team going 0-8 in ACC play, it became the first Power 5 school to go winless in football and men’s basketball since TCU in 1976-77. The BC basketball team accounted for an 0-19 mark against ACC competition, which includes losing in the league tournament. The Eagles were the first team to go winless in ACC play since Maryland in the 1986-87 season, but back then they played only 14 regular-season conference games. While the Terrapins were hampered by the fallout from the death of Len Bias, the Eagles’ decline began shortly after they inexplicably forced Al Skinner out in 2010.
Given the lows of last season, there’s nowhere to go but up, right? That had to be the philosophy of Coach Jim Christian, who played one of the youngest rosters in the nation last season. The Eagles played nine true freshmen during the course of the season, which tied Bradley for the second most nationally. Toss in redshirt freshman Idy Diallo, and the Eagles reached double digits. Boston College will continue to heavily rely on perimeter players to carry the offensive load and so far so good with two victories in three games. However, those wins came against Maryland Eastern Shore and Stony Brook. The Eagles lost their HOME-opener to Nicholls by six points. What’s really at work here is that a Colonial Athletic Association school is favored at an ACC school and the market does not like that one bit. While we are rarely in favor of spotting road points in this sport, we have to continue to play the value when it’s warranted and that applies here. Boston College is still a mess. Christian took over an unenviable situation in Chestnut Hill, but he needs to start to turn it around and make the Eagles, at the very least, respectable. His future could be tied to that of athletic director Brad Bates, who hired him and has a struggling football program, too.
Towson is also 2-1 but the difference is that their loss occurred on the road at Maryland against a very good Terps' squad and they only lost by five points. The Tigers other two games were also on the road and they won them both at George Mason and Morgan State. Heading into last season, the expectations were pretty low, but the Tigers ended up 11-7 in conference play and with 20 wins overall. Towson fell in their CAA tournament opener to Northeastern and lost their first game in the Vegas 16 tournament but Towson is ready for a better season in part due to the return of leading scorer and leading rebounder Arnaud William Adala Moto. The -110senior forward averaged 13.9 points and 8.3 rebounds last season. He is a great interior scorer and the offense will work through Adala Moto again this year. But he can also stretch the defense with his shooting ability. Towson will play its fourth straight game to open the season and it could end up serving them well. With a chance to go 3-1 before its home opener on Friday, the Tigers confidence is high and their play has been solid. A five-point loss to the Terps has to be considered a “good” loss. The Tigers are the superior team here, they’ve played a much tougher early season schedule and now they’re a small price against a directionless program. We’ll bite.
Arkansas +163 over MINNESOTA
A former Nolan Richardson assistant, Coach Mike Anderson returned to Fayetteville five years ago and was expected to get Arkansas basketball back to national relevance. That hasn't happened, except for the 2015 campaign in which the Razorbacks made their lone NCAA tourney appearance under Anderson. The team is coming off a mediocre 16-16 campaign and a 9-9 mark in the SEC. The Hogs will need to take a step forward, which is entirely possible with a player like Moses Kingsley. A lot can be said about Arkansas’ recent recruiting classes, but all that matters now is that this is a very, very good class. Coach Anderson brought in three junior college transfers and has Dustin Thomas eligible after sitting out as a transfer from Colorado. Thomas, a 6-8 junior, should be a nice complimentary player to Kingsley in the paint. The expectations are high for Arlando Cook, but junior college transfers do not always work out. Trey Thompson will provide a more experienced option. The 6-9 forward averaged 17.3 minutes per game last season and played pretty well. Thompson is tough on the glass and a pretty good shot blocker too. The Arkansas backcourt has quite a bit of talent returning. Dusty Hannahs is not losing his starting job after averaging a team high 16.5 points per game in his first season with the Razorbacks. Arkansas has the potential to be a lot better if all of the transfers can come close to living up to their hype and so far so good, as the Hogs are 3-0. However, the victories do not give them much credibility, as they occurred against Fort Wayne, Southern Illinois and UT-Arlington. That said, the Hogs will have the best player on the court here in Moses Kingsley, a future NBAer and besides that, this one is more about fading the overrated 4-0 Gophers.
If this was the first game of the year for both squads, we’re not even sure that the Gophers would be favored. However, after a 4-0 start and putting up some juicy numbers in the process, Minnesota’s stock has risen considerably so now would be the time to sell. Gophers Coach, Richard Pitino is the son of Louisville Coach, Rick Pitino, who knows how to work this system better than anyone. You schedule games against teams you can smoke to build up your resume. You keep your job in the process (Pitino was on the hot seat after going 8-23 last year) and you keep your foot on the gas and try and win by 50 points. Rick Pitino has been doing that for years and he’s passed on his manipulation of the system to his son. The Gophers four wins have occurred against Ul Lafayette, Mount St. Mary’s, UT-Arlington and St. John’s. Minnesota trailed by 12 points at one point against UT-Arlington. They trailed the Johnnies by nine and rallied to win by six. Against Ul Lafayette, the Gophers were outrebounded and committed 19 turnovers but a barrage of three’s carried them to another victory. What we have here is a 4-0 team putting up some big offensive numbers but they’re skewed. As soon as the competition stiffens, the Gophers will be exposed as the extremely vulnerable team that they are. They rely on a high percentage of shots to go down but they don’t have the defense to compensate for it when the shots aren’t falling. A team that plays this way can go cold at any time. That means they can fall behind by a big margin on any given day and that is not the type of team you want to get behind when spotting points or a price. Sure, the Gophers can win here and if they do, good for them but there is money to be made fading this group because they are prone to getting blown out by any equal like the team they’ll face here. They will get blown out once conference play starts because they are ill-equipped to play with the real teams in the Big-10. Take the four points if you wish here but we’re going to stay aggressive and play the Hogs straight up.
Dave Price
New York Knicks -1.5
After a slow start to the season, the New York Knicks are starting to play much better of late as these players are starting to play well to together. It was going to take some time for them to gel with all of the new faces. The Knicks are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, winning all three of their home games, including double-digit wins over both Dallas and Atlanta. They are a rested team as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Blazers have been overvalued for the last few weeks as they've gone 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They continue to get love from the public as they are only 1.5-point dogs here. The public loves Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, but that's all the Blazers really have. They are poor on defense as they are giving up 112.2 points per game. Portland is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games following a blowout road win by 20 points or more. The Blazers are 1-8 ATS vs. teams who score at least 99 points per game this season. The Blazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Jack Jones
Indiana Hoosiers -13
The Indiana Hoosiers have been mighty impressive in the early going. They are 3-0 this season with an overtime win against Kansas as 6-point dogs, a 22-point win over UMass-Lowell and a 39-point win over Liberty. Their dominance should continue here tonight against IUPU-Fort Wayne.
The Hoosiers are glad to have a healthy James Blackmon Jr. back as he's averaging 23.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 56.1% from the floor and 51.9% from 3-point range. This team is absolutely loaded with three other players averaging at least 12 points in Robert Johnson (13.0 ppg, 3.3 apg), OG Anunoby (12.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg). They also have a plethora of 3-point shooters who can stretch the floor.
Fort Wayne's only two wins this season came against Kenyon and UMass-Lowell, but they lost their two road games, including a 57-75 loss at Illinois State as 6.5-point dogs. I just see no way they are able to hang with Indiana, and that was the case last year. The Hoosiers beat them 90-65 as 20-point home favorites, and another beat down can bet expected here.
Plays on any team (INDIANA) - an excellent offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG), after a blowout win by 30 points or more are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hoosiers are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Mastodons are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten foes.
Wunderdog
NJIT vs. Georgia St
Pick: NJIT +2.5
New Jersey Tech has covered 11 of its last lined 15 games as the linemakers continue to undervalue the Highlanders, who are coming off a 74-68 win over Colgate. Damon Lynn scored 24 points and Rob Ukawuba added 15 points for NJIT, who lost in overtime at Lafayette its previous game when Lynn also scored 24 points. Georgia State has lost two straight to Auburn and Purdue and averaging just 60.5 points per game on 38.6 percent shooting this season. This is even worse than last season when the Panthers averaged 65.7 points. Only two players scored in double figures against Purdue with Jeremy Hollowell and D'Marcus Simonds scoring 15 and 13, respectively. NJIT is averaging 80 points per contest and Georgia State is 5-15-1 ATS its last 21 games dating to last season.
Kevin Rogers
Akron at Ohio
Play: Akron
Akron and Ohio wrap up the regular season tonight as the Zips look to end a three-game losing streak. In two of Akron's last three losses, the Zips closed as double-digit favorites, including a home loss to struggling Bowling Green last week. Akron has cashed in two of three road underdog opportunities this season, while looking to snap an eight-game losing streak to Ohio that dates back to 2008. Ohio had its three-game winning streak snapped at Central Michigan last week as the Bobcats enter tonight at 1-4 ATS as a home favorite this season. I'll take the points with Akron.
Eric Schroeder
There are a lot of big things taking place in the Mid-American Conference this week, as the championship game still awaits the East and West Division Champions. The game is slated for Dec. 2, and the picture of the participants will be much clearer after this week's games.
One of the key matchups is with Ball State and Miami, Ohio, as Miami needs both an Ohio loss and a Miami win to win the East Division. Ohio also plays tonight, against Akron.
I'm putting a small piece on Miami tonight, and giving it to you for free.
Miami rolls into this one riding a five-game winning streak, and there's a little more to this streak than meets the eye. The RedHawks join Illinois (1971) and Tennessee (1988) as the only FBS teams to win five straight games after an 0-6 start to a season. Furthermore, no FBS team has ever won six straight to finish 6-6 overall on the year. The RedHawks can make history tonight.
I'm going to bank on Miami's defense, which is ranked No. 1 in the league in allowing 5.15 yards per play. With triple-revenge on the brain, that stop unit will be fired up tonight.
Let's play a revved up and motivated Miami-O team, minus the points.
2* MIAMI, OHIO
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play winner is to side with the home team in tonight's Central Michigan-Eastern Michigan battle.
Both sides stand at 6-5, and both are in line for a bowl bid. Obviously, the winner of this one will move up a little as to where they go this bowl season.
I like the Eagles tonight, as they are looking for some revenge on a Chippewas team that has bested them in each of the last 4 series meetings, and 6 of the last 7 overall showdowns.
Both teams play off of hard-fought games, as Central blew a 17-0 lead at home against Ohio, but managed to win 27-20, while Eastern allowed NIU to comeback and beat them in overtime last week.
Eastern Michigan does bring in a 5-0 spread mark their last 5 games contested against teams with a winning record, and Central does indeed fall into that category.
In a near-pick conference battle, will side with the "home cookin'" in this one.
Eastern Michigan in a nail-biter.
1* EASTERN MICHIGAN
Brett Atkins
My comp play for Tuesday will be to fly with the Pelicans plus the points as they visit the Hawks.
New Orleans looks to be finally gaining some traction, as the Pels hit Philips Arena a pair of straight up wins their last two times out under their belts, and their 4 wins this season have come over their last 6 games contested!
The Pelicans have cashed in 4 straight, and 5 of their last 6 as well.
The Hawks come home having dropped their last pair of games away from home, and they are on a 1-3 spread slide their last 4 overall.
Series numbers show New Orleans with a 4-3 straight up mark the past 7 meetings, and a 5-2 spread mark in those 7.
Look for the points to work with the surging Pelicans.
3* NEW ORLEANS
Bob Valentino
While I know the New Orleans Pelicans haven't been anything special to start the season, as they opened the campaign with eight straight losses, they've played better recently.
The Pelicans have won four of six, and Anthony Davis is making a huge statement these days. He single-handidly keeps this team in games, and after two home wins, the Pelicans will be motivated to get things done in this one.
On the other hand, the Hawks have lost two in a row, and make note that this team does not necessarily blow teams out. At least not recently.
I like New Orleans' chances to keep this close and possibly steal this one outright.
3* HAWKS
FRANK JORDAN
Portland Trail Blazers vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -2
Portland is 8-7 on the year, 4-4 on the road and 1-1 against the East as they take on the Knicks at MSG. New York is 6-7 on the season, 2-2 against the West, but at home they have played strong with a 5-2 record. Carmelo Anthony is still the top scorer for the Knicks, however he is only needed to put in about 23 points per game as Porzingis is helping with 20 points per game and Rose chips in with 15. Portland has a nice duo with Lillard and McCollum scoring a combined 50 points per game, but no other Trailblazer is scoring more than 12 points a game and Lillard has less than five assists per game when he is averaging over six per game in his career and coming off a career best 6.8 per game last year. Look for Lillard to get his points, but he will be alone as the Knicks shut down everyone else and get 15+ points from their big three in a 98-93 home victory.
Vegas Butcher
NO @ ATL -8.5
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS at home and 2-4 ATS on the road this year. They’re coming off two straight road losses (and non-covers), so expect a strong effort to try and end the losing streak. By comparison, the Pelicans are off two straight home wins, as the addition of Jrue Holiday to the lineup is definitely welcomed. They’ve beaten POR and CHA in those two contests. Still, the Hawks are one of the best teams in the league, and a focused effort out of them should be enough for a win and a cover. Lean: ATL -8.5
POR @ NYK -1.5
These teams are fairly even to one another, so not sure why the bookmakers are listing Portland as the ‘better’ team here. Blazers are 1-4 ATS as an underdog and 4-4 ATS on the road. Knicks are 4-1 ATS as a favorite and 5-2 ATS at home. This is also Portland’s 4th straight road game out of a 5-game roadie. Both teams are bottom-3 defensive teams in the league, and the Knicks will be without Noah, who is probably one of their better defenders. Expect a lot of points here, as do the bookmakers (216.5 is the total). I think the number is too short by a point or so though, as I don’t see Portland being a ‘better’ team in this matchup. Lean: NYK -1.5
CHI @ DEN +2.5
The Bulls are in a fairly tough spot here. This is their 5th straight road-game, as they’re 3-1 so far on this trip. After letting the game against the Clippers slip away, Chicago got an impressive win against the Lakers, without Wade in the lineup. Now they’ll take on a Denver team that has covered 4 straight and 8 of their last 11 games. Denver is 7-3 ATS as an underdog. This team employs a fast pace (7th in the league), which could be an issue for Chicago (22nd). Could be a challenging game for Chicago. Lean: DEN +2.5
OKC @ LAL +3
Lakers seem undervalued here but D’Angelo Russell didn’t participate in the shoot-around, so clearly the bookmakers have adjusted for that. The Thunder just lost to a Pacers team missing their best player (Paul George). OKC is only 4-7 ATS as a favorite and 1-3 ATS on the road. Lakers are 6-2 ATS as underdog. I’d love to back the Lakers at this number but D. Russell’s availability is a concern. Lean: LAL +3
Harry Bondi
EASTERN MICHIGAN (+1.5) over Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan Head Coach Chris Creighton has done one of the better coaching jobs in all of college football this year. With a win tonight, the Eagles will secure the program’s first winning season since 1995 and we think they get it done. EMU has gone a profiitable 8-3 ATS this year, including a 5-2 ATS record as a dog and a perfect 4-0 ATS when facing winning teams. They have been competitive against thew MAC’s best this year — losing 45-31 to Western Michigan as a 26-point dog and 35-20 to Toledo as a 20-point dog — so they can certainly win this game at home against a Central Michigan team that’s gone just 1-3 ATS against winning teams this season.