Free Picks for Tuesday, November 8th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Sleepyj
Minnesota +3.5
Minnesota hasn't been as sharp as most think, but they have the talent to get it together and should be rather strong as the season moves along...Problem here for the Nets is the amount of points they can generate..If this game turns into and up and down affair, the T-Wolves will eventually pull away and cover this number..I expect that pace, because Brooklyn even at home falls into the oppositions pace more often then not.....Brooklyn has done some things well and it's the small things....They are very good at stealing the basketball and good at rebounds as well..It's those things that keep them close and that actually got them to 2-4 this year...Still Minnesota has too much speed and too many pure scorers on this team..Defense isn't the hallmark of this Timberwolves team, but they are getting better...Most likely Wiggins will draw the best scorer for the Nets and that will limit the over output of points for the Nets..The reason the T-Wolves are favored by 2 buckets here is because they are better...T-Wolves have had a tough schedule thus far, but this is by far the weakest team they will have seen all season..I think it shows up here tonight and the T-Wolves win in convincing fashion.
DAVE COKIN
WESTERN MICHIGAN AT KENT STATE
PLAY: WESTERN MICHIGAN -21.5
Forget the numbers here. I’m fading Kent State as I have to think the team is in a state of shock right now.
In case you missed it, star safety Nate Holley will be watching this game from a halfway house. Holley was arrested Friday on a kidnapping charge, so he has obviously been suspended. This is not only a huge loss for the Golden Flashes from a personnel standpoint as he’s a terrific player, but I have to think it’s a mental stunner for the team.
One also cannot help but speculate what impact this has on Nick Holley. Nick is Nate’s twin brother, and he also happens to be the starting quarterback for Kent State.
Western Michigan is angling toward a perfect season and a Cotton Bowl invite as the Group of Five representative. The Broncos are totally legit. They’re also pretty good at wiping the floor with overmatched opposition, so laying even a number as large as this one is not overly concerning.
The math on this game suggests the line is a bit inflated. But considering the mitigating circumstances, I have to think it’s justified. Sometimes teams galvanize and come up with monster efforts in the face of adversity. But considering what has just gone down for Kent State, I just don’t see that being likely. Even at the huge number, I’d lay it here with Western Michigan.
Rob Vinciletti
Hawks vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -8
The Cavs have covered 7 of the last 8 in this series and 5 straight at home against Atlanta. The Hawks are on a 2-9 spread run on the road. The Hawks fit a solid 84% play against system from the database that plays against rested road dogs of 5 or more off a home favored win and cover scoring 110 or more points vs an opponent off a spread loss as a road favorite of 5 or more. Cavs stay undefeated tonight with a win and cover over Atlanta.
Bob Harvey
Los Angeles -190
Dallas has won 10 straight over LA with six of those wins coming by double figures. However as the expression goes, that was then and now is now.
The Mavericks (1-5, 2-4 ATS) snapped a season-opening five-game losing streak with an 86-75 victory over Milwaukee. Harrison Barnes erupted for a career-best 34 points against Milwaukee, marking the second time this season the free-agent acquisition reached the 30-point mark.
The Mavs will be without Dirk Nowitzki (Achilles) who will miss his second straight game and fourth of the season. Deron Williams (calf) is also expected to miss his second in a row.
The Lakers (4-3, 6-1 ATS), who are coming off a 119-108 victory over Phoenix on Sunday, have a winning record for the first time since December 6, 2013. They’ve responded well to the up tempo system installed by rookie HC Luke Walton and are averaging 119.7 points per game during their current three-game winning streak. D'Angelo Russell (team-best 15.9 average) and Julius Randle (14.4 points, 7.9 rebounds) are the statistical leaders for a team that bears no resemblance to the squad that set a franchise record with 65 losses last season.
The Mavericks held the Lakers to an average of 88.3 points while sweeping last season's three meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 5-1 to the low side in the past six meetings in Los Angeles. Dallas is 5-0 to the UNDER in its last five overall.
The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall and 7-0 ATS in their past seven home games.
Jim Feist
Mavericks at Lakers
Pick: Over
Los Angeles is trying to focus on defense this season but a lot of good that is doing, allowing over 108 points in four of the last five. At least the young offense is clicking and the Lakers are 4-0 over the total against the NBA Southwest division. Run-and gun Dallas is in town, giving up points on the road, and the Over is 5-1 in the Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Stephen Nover
New Orleans at Sacramento
Play: New Orleans +5.5
Sacramento has a better coach this season and a new state-of-the-art arena, but don't get ahead of yourself with this team. The Kings are still the Kings, which means they are overpriced here.
If there is a big man better than DeMarcus Cousins it's Anthony Davis. Davis is averaging 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and leads the NBA in blocked shots at 2.8.
New Orleans played last night covering against Golden State. The Pelicans are 0-7, but are better than their record. They've lost twice in overtime and suffered two other losses by a combined nine points. They shouldn't be fatigued playing without rest this early in the season.
Yes, the Pelicans are a lottery team. They're missing a couple of key cogs with Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans sidelined. But the Kings aren't any better.
The Kings are trying to find their identity under new coach Dave Joerger. This is a bad spot, too, for Sacramento traveling home after concluding a five-game, eight-day road trip that finished up Sunday. with a 96-91 upset win against Toronto.
The Kings are a work in progress. Their dynamics are going to be different here as starting point guard Darren Collison makes his season debut after sitting out an eight-game suspension. There's going to be an adjustment period for the Kings going from Ty Lawson to Collison, who figures to be rusty. Collison is an upgrade. Lawson can't shoot, or make free throws. But that difference might not show up for a while at least not in Collison's first game back.
Sacramento was the worst defensive team in the league last season giving up 109.1 points a game. Joerger is working on that. The Pelicans have surrendered six more points per game than the Kings so far this season - but have also played Golden State twice. The Warriors averaged 119 points against the Pelicans in those two games. Discount those two games and New Orleans would be surrendering an average of 98.8 points in regulation, which would rank as the 10th best in the league.
New Orleans is desperate for a victory. The Pelicans have beaten the Kings six straight times, including all four meetings last season.
David Banks
Western Michigan @ Kent St
Pick: Western Michigan -22
They are one of just five remaining unbeaten teams in the country. The 23rd-ranked Western Michigan Broncos will travel to face Kent State on Election Night. The Golden Flashes are just 3-6 on the season but are coming off a 27-24 victory over Central Michigan the previous Saturday. Shane Hynes kicked a 35-yard field goal as time expired to give Kent State the win. The Golden Flashes will need much more than a field goal to beat the Broncos.
Western Michigan (9-0) destroyed Ball State, 52-20, last week on a Tuesday night. Wide receiver Corey Davis caught 12 passes for a MAC record 272 yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback Zach Terrell, one of the nation’s most underrated at the position, was 23-for-34 for 367 yards and the three scores to Davis. Head coach P.J. Fleck's team is solid all the way around. The Broncos are fifth in the nation in scoring averaging 45.2 points per game, and are also 16th nationally in scoring defense. Western Michigan gives up 19.3 points a game, quite a feat in the spread-offense-happy MAC.
Fleck and the Broncos can continue moving closer to a New Year’s Six bowl berth with a victory on Tuesday. They are the highest ranked Group of 5 school, one spot ahead of Boise State (7-1) of the Mountain West. The problem facing the Broncos is that the highest ranked Group of 5 school in the College Football Playoff’s initial rankings the past two years has failed to make a New Year’s Six bowl.
Wunderdog
Oilers @ Penguins
Pick: Under 5.5
First-place Edmonton has impressed with their fast skating offense, but don't overlook the defense that is ninth in the NHL in goals allowed, and fourth in penalty killing. Edmonton is on an 8-2 run UNDER the total, as well as 14-2 UNDER after allowing two or fewer goals in their previous game. They come off a 2-1 win at Detroit and the team is 14-6-1 UNDER after scoring two or fewer goals. And speaking of defense, defending champion Pittsburgh can play tough 'D', too, off a 5-0 win at San Jose. Pittsburgh is also 7-2-2 UNDER the total against the Pacific Division and this shapes up as a defensive battle.
Vegas Butcher
ATL @ CLE -8.5
Hawks are 4-2 ATS while the Cavs are 2-4 ATS to start out the season. Cavaliers have actually gone 0-4 ATS in the last 4 games, as they haven’t been covering inflated spreads. This is a ‘revenge’ game of sorts for ATL, after Cleveland swept them in last year’s post-season. Lean: ATL +8.5
MIN @ BKN +4
A 1-4 SU/ATS Wolves team is a favorite on the road eh? Brooklyn is 2-4 SU but they are 5-1 ATS so far this season, as they’ve been one of the best bets in the NBA this year. Of course the key being here ‘have been’. It won’t last. This is one of the least talented teams in the league, and with Lin set to miss 2 weeks, they’re going to be even worse going forward. One factor in this one is that Towns is a bad matchup for Brook Lopez, who will most likely be forced to cover him on the perimeter. Unless they put a smaller player on him instead. Then Towns will dominate in the paint. Lean: MIN -4
DEN @ MEM -2.5
Here’s an interesting spot to analyze. Denver is playing their 6th consecutive road game and their 6th game in 9 nights. They’re also coming off a huge win @ Boston, a team that is supposed to challenge for the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference. This could be a big ‘let down’ spot for the Nuggets. Memphis is off 2 losses, but both came to playoff teams in LAC and POR. They’re playing their 4th straight home game, and are much more rested. The spot suggests to take a look at the home team in this one. Lean: MEM -2.5
PHX @ POR -7.5
These teams met on 11/02, with the Suns winning a close one in OT on their own home court. Portland was a -2.5-road favorite in that one. It’s important to note that Blazers were on a b2b, after playing GSW at home the day before. Phoenix was playing with a day-off in between games in that one. Now both are in a similar ‘fatigue’ spot for the rematch. Suns are finishing off a quick 3-game roadie, while Portland has just came off theirs. While ‘revenge’ angle is in play, it’s very important to note that POR is facing off @ LAC tomorrow night, and these two are developing quiet a rivalry lately. Their first meeting this season produced 59 personal fouls and 78 free-throw attempts, and a bunch of technicals. I’d be careful here if I was taking the Blazers, as Phoenix is not a great matchup for them (quick, guard oriented team), and if they’re looking ahead to tomorrow, this one could be very close. Lean: PHX +7.5
NO @ SAC -5.5
The Pelicans are now 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS), though they’ve had very close losses to opponents similar to them in quality (DEN, MIL, PHX, MEM). They’re coming off a loss to the Warriors, after making it a game in the 2nd half after being down by 14 at the half. Pelicans played tough against Gentry’s former team (he was an assistant with them prior to last year), but will they get up for the one tonight? Kings have just completed a 5-game roadie and are getting Collison back, who served an 8-game suspension for domestic violence. Hopefully he can channel his energy on the basketball court going forward instead of being physically abusive towards his wife. Lean: SAC -5.5
DAL @ LAL -4.5
Lakers are 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU) and are playing good ball. They’ve beaten GSW and ATL recently, as well as HOU earlier in the season. With Nowitzki, Williams, and Harris out, Dallas is short-handed, though it gives younger players a chance to play more. Still, it’s not often these days that you see the Lakers as a favorite by more than 2 buckets against a team like the Mavs. It’s one thing to cover as an underdog, but a totally different scenario when you’re laying the points. Lean: DAL +4.5
TEDDY DAVIS
Suns vs. Blazers
Play: Suns +7½
Portland is returning home after a quick 3 game road trip and won two of those in beating the Mavs and Grizzlies with their only loss coming @ the Suns. While I'm sure the Trailblazers obviously want to win I'm not sure they will be totally focused on this game with a big one tomorrow night @ the Clippers. The Suns are more than a capable team and match up very well the the Portland guards here. Booker is heating up right now and I see them giving a fight. Suns are 13-3 ATS L16 games following a SU loss.
BRANDON LEE
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
Play: Under 200½
The books have set the mark on the total too high for tonight's Western Conference showdown between the Nuggets and Grizzlies. Memphis is a team built for low-scoring games as they rank 2nd to last in offensive efficiency. Denver isn't too far behind, as they are just 21st in offensive efficiency. While the Nuggets rank 4th in pace, the Grizzlies are 24th. The key here is that Memphis should be able to dictate the tempo at home, especially with this being the 5th straight road game for Denver and 4th in the last 6 days. Nuggets are also coming off a huge win at Boston and have a big home game on deck against the Warriors Thursday, putting them in a big letdown spot. This feels like a must win game for Memphis off two straight losses and 6 of their next 7 on the road, so they should bring the defensive intensity here.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
Play: Under 201
The Grizzlies are playing their 8th game of the season and they've only had 2 games this season exceed 200 points and one of those was an overtime game. Memphis has stayed under the total in all 4 of their November games, even though one of those also went to OT, and none of the games exceeded 196 points. Both Denver and Memphis like to roll with 2 big men on the floor and that is going to limit offensive production in the lane for each of these teams. Also, both teams do have some injury issues effecting perimeter scoring right now. This should help lead to a rather ugly, low-scoring game Tuesday as Memphis has shot 38.3% or less from the field in all 4 games this month! The Nuggets are off of a great shooting night at New York on Sunday but previously were held to 40.7% or less from the field in 3 of their 4 prior games. 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have stayed under the total and the under is 22-12 in the Grizzlies last 34 November games. More of the same tonight.
JIMMY BOYD
Eastern Michigan Pk
This Eastern Michigan team has been a covering machine this season, going 7-2 ATS. A big reason for that is they have been so bad for so long. This is a team that went just 1-11 last year and was a mere 23-97 in the previous 10 years coming into this season. Only once during this 10-year stretch they won more than 4 games (2 or fewer wins 6 of the last 7 years).
Each an every game down the stretch means so much to this team. They are trying to become the first team in school history to make a bowl game since 1987. Getting a chance to get hit that magical 6-win mark in a prime time game only adds fuel to the fire.
As for Ball State, this isn’t a great spot. They just hosted by far the best team in the conference in Western Michigan last week. Putting them in a huge letdown spot against a team they have dominated of late. Not to mention they have another big game on deck at Toledo, who they have some revenge against.
As far as the matchup, these are two similar teams. Both have decent offenses, but can struggle defensively. The Eagles are 49th in total offense (424 ypg) and 82nd in total defense (420 ypg). The Cardinals are 43rd in total offense (447 ypg) and 106th in total defense (454 ypg).
With that said, I think you have to give the edge to Eastern Michigan on both sides of the ball. The Eagles are averaging 5.9 yards/play, where Ball State is only averaging 5.6 yards/play. There’s an even bigger gap defensively. Eastern Michigan is giving up 5.5 yards/play, while the Cardinals are allowing 6.3 yards/play.
Another key here is that both defenses are much worse against the pass than the run. That’s important to note, as the Cardinals offense depends more on their running game. The Eagles on the other hand are a much better passing team. Keep in mind that Eastern Michigan is only allowing 3.9 yards/carry against the run. That’s against teams who average 4.2 yards/carry. Ball State on the other hand is giving up 4.6 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3.
We also find a strong system in play favoring a fade of Ball State. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 after the first month of the season, off a home game are just 45-74 (38%) ATS over the last 5 years. We also see that the Cardinals are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 against bad pass defenses (allowing 250+ ypg). They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams who average 5.9 or more yards/play.
JACK JONES
Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight at home against the Denver Nuggets. They have lost two straight coming in. And they get three days off following this game before a tough 4-game road trip. They are certainly prioritizing victory here.
Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets come in overvalued after a 123-107 win at Boston last time out. The Celtics were missing Al Horford and Jae Crowder, two starters, so that win comes with an asterisk. Now the Nuggets are only getting 2.5 points here on the road.
This is a tough spot for the Nuggets as well. It will be their 5th straight road game, and their 4th road game in the past six days. And the Nuggets have the Warriors on deck at home, so they could certainly be looking ahead to that contest Thursday night.
The Grizzlies have won five of their last six meetings with the Nuggets. Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win. Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Denver is 2-13 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.