DAVE PRICE
Atlanta Hawks +8.5
The Atlanta Hawks are 4-2 this season and coming off a 112-97 home victory over Houston. They have had two days off since to prepare for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Hawks want to make a statement tonight and let the Cavaliers know that they are going to have to deal with them. Fading Cleveland has been a great move of late. The Cavs are 6-0 this season, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall as all four wins came by 8 points or fewer. They don't seem to be concerned with blowing teams out, but rather just winning games. That was evident in their lackluster 102-101 win at Philadelphia last time out as 12-point favorites. The Hawks were swept by the Cavs in the playoffs last year and want revenge.
SPORTS WAGERS
Dallas +101 over WINNIPEG
Regulation only. In our last podcast (at the 10:00 minute mark), we discuss extensively about how the betting line can assist in picking winners and there are two such games like that on today’s menu. On the puck line the Jets are -½ +150 while the Stars are +½ -165 so therefore the line reads:
Dallas +½ -165
Winnipeg -½ +150
What this line strongly suggests is that the Stars will not lose this game in regulation time because nobody in their right mind would take a half puck back on Dallas and lay -165. We’re not going to either. Winnipeg has plenty of appeal at +150 (considering they are a small favorite) and Dallas has zero appeal at -165. Instead, we are going to play Dallas in regulation only so that if the game goes into OT, a push is the result. This wager is not available everywhere. It is available for sure at Pinnacle and 5Dimes but if you don’t have an account at one of those two joints, the recommendation would be to play Dallas straight up.
Los Angeles +101 over TORONTO
Regulation only. This is the other one of two games in which the betting line instructs us how to proceed. On the puck line the Leafs are -½ +150 while the Kings are +½ -165 so therefore the line reads:
Los Angeles +½ -165
Toronto -½ +150
What this line strongly suggests is that the Kings will not lose this game in regulation time because nobody in their right mind would take a half puck back on L.A. and lay -165. We’re not going to either. Toronto has plenty of appeal at +150 (considering they are a small favorite) and Los Angeles has zero appeal at -165. Instead, we are going to play the Kings in regulation only so that if the game goes into OT, a push is the result. This wager is not available everywhere. It is available for sure at Pinnacle and 5Dimes but if you don’t have an account at one of those two joints, the recommendation would be to play Dallas straight up.
Ottawa +145 over NASHVILLE
OT included. One of our NHL strategies right now is to attack weak goaltenders when taking back a price. Pekka Rinne is always capable of losing games all on his own and it’s not like the Preds are killing it anyway. Nashville has three wins in 11 tries. Nobody on the team has more points than Flop Forsberg’s seven but his plus/minus is -4. P.K. Subban’s plus/minus is -7. Only two players on the entire roster, Matt Irwin and Auston Watson, are on the positive side of plus/minus. Viktor Arvidsson has been the teams’ leading scorer for most of the year so far. Nashville is probably better than their record but they have very little chance of winning if the game goes into OT because Rinne is so weak. Nashville is now 0-3 in extra time this season and as those soft goals and OT losses mount, team morale declines. We are seeing the effects of weak goaltending on several teams. We see it with Carolina, Winnipeg and Calgary among others, whereas they’re all having difficulty winning because it becomes increasingly difficult for players to get up for games when the goalies keep letting you down. Add Nashville to that list.
The exact opposite is going on in Ottawa with Craig Anderson (.930 SV%). He’s been tremendous in goal and very quietly the Senators have won seven games in 11 tries. Furthermore, the Sens aren’t even scoring much so when their point producers start producing, they are going to become even more difficult to defeat. Ottawa ranks eighth in the league in high quality scoring chances against. They rank 14th in quality scoring chances. While one can expect a sense of urgency from the Preds here, it’s not going to deter us from fading an overpriced, weak goaltender. The Sens have condfidence and swag and their focus seems to be better than it has been for quoite some time.
Power Sports
Mavs vs. Lakers
Pick: Mavs
Take one of the biggest ballhogs in league history off a team and watch the offense suddenly improve. It's that simple for the surprising Lakers, one year removed from a shameless Kobe Bryant victory lap. With Bryant no longer jacking up shots, this offense now ranks a respectable 12th in offensive efficiency.
That all being said, LA appears to be totally overvalued in this situation as they are favored for just a second time all season. They did pass the first test, Sunday night vs. Phoenix, laying four points. There they won 119-108 to improve to 6-1 ATS on the year. Clearly, this has caught us all off guard. The Lakers have even beaten Golden State! But with those results has come a dramatic shift in the marketplace and I recommend selling high w/ this group right now.
Dallas won for the first time Sunday and I'm proud to say I was on them. It took overtime to oust Milwaukee, but the Mavs allowed 75 pts, which is certainly an encouraging sign. Offensively, they've struggled, but the Lakers are hardly a defensive juggernaut. No Dirk Nowitzki, no problem, I think as they've beaten LA 10 straight times. This is just the 14th time that the Lakers have been favored since the start of the 2014-15 season.
Larry Ness
Atlanta vs. Cleveland
Pick: Atlanta
The defending champion Cleveland Cavs are the NBA’s lone remaining unbeaten at 6-0 (but just 2-4 ATS), after Saturday’s 102-101 win at Philadelphia. LBJ scored 25 points to go along with eight rebounds and 14 assists, moving into 10th-place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list. So far, the Cavs have been relying almost solely on the team's “Big Three,” with PG Irving leading the way by averaging 23.0 PPG, followed by LBJ’s impressive stat line of 22.8- 8.8-10.3 APG and PF Love’s near double-double (21.7-8.5).
The Hawks lost C-F Al Horford (to Boston) and PG Jeff Teague (to Indiana), replacing those two with Dwight Howard (signed from Houston) and by promoting Dennis Schroder to the starting PG spot. Howard is averaging 17.0 PPG and 12.3 RPG, while in his firs season as a full-starter, Schroder has averaged 15.0 PPG and 6.5 APG. The remaining starters are Millsap (17.8-8.3) and Bazemore (9.5) in the frontcourt plus Korver (8.8 ) playing alongside of Schroder in the backcourt. Hardaway (12.0) and Sefolosha (7.4-4.5) come off the bench in the backcourt with Muscala (9.2-4.5) coming off the bench up front.
The Cavs have swept the Hawks each of the last two years in the postseason, so this 6-0 team may just may be vulnerable here in laying points against a highly motivated group. Take the points.
Harry Bondi
EASTERN MICHIGAN +1 over Ball State
Tonight, we jump into the MAC and take the more rested team that will have the fundamental advantage, as well. EMU gets an extra four days of preparation for this Tuesday night affair and since they run a pass-first offense this is a great match-up as they go up against a Ball State defense that is allowing 8.6 yards per pass this year and has given up more than 300 yards passing in four of its last six games. The Eales are also a profitable 7-2 ATS this season, including a 4-1 ATS mark on the road, while Ball State has covered just four of its last 16 home games.
Brett Atkins
Tuesday's comp play is the Over in the Broncos-Golden Flashes game from Dix Stadium.
Western Michigan is on a quest to play in a New Year's 6 bowl game, so it is quite important they ring up as many "style" points as possible to go along with their undefeated season, so look for PJ Fleck to keep his foot on the gas pedal all night long.
The Broncos have posted 41 points or better in each of their last 6 games played, and have played Overs in their last pair, and 4 of those 6 games overall.
The Golden Flashes have not been as prolific in their games scoring-wise, but they have with their opposition to eclipse the posted total in 3 of their last 5 games overall.
I expect Western Michigan to do the bulk of the scoring tonight, but if Kent can chip in with 10 to 14 points, then we have ourselves a rock-solid Over play tonight in the MAC.
4* WESTERN MICHIGAN-KENT STATE OVER
Bob Valentino
I don't know when the Cleveland Cavaliers plan on losing, but it won't be tonight. The defending world champions have won their first six games by an average margin of just 8.8 points per game.
The season-opening, 29-point rout of the New York Knicks was the only double-digit win. After a few days off to let a one-point win at Philadelphia sink in, I think the Cavaliers are due for another blowout.
The Hawks are in after a 15-point win against Houston, but this team has lost two of three: one at home to the Lakers and the next at the Wizards.
I'm not confident with Atlanta on the road, in Cleveland, against the champs. Lay the home chalk.
4* CAVALIERS
Eric Schroeder
On the heels of that huge underdog cover I gave you last night, with the New Orleans Pelicans staying well inside the 17 at Golden State, I'm playing another road team, this time the Minnesota Timberwolves. Lay the -5 points to the Brooklyn Nets, as this game is the Wolves to lose.
The Nets are just 2-4, and have split their four home games. And while I know the Timberwolves are just 1-4 on the young season, I'm a believer of this team and what it is capable of doing.
Minnesota has some of the best young talent in the league, and a fantastic coach in Tom Thibodeau. This team will make a run at some point, and could challenge for the No. 8 spot in the playoffs.
I think the Wolves are a much better team on the whole, and should be able to cover this road number.
3* MINNESOTA
Chris Jordan
If the Sacramento Kings weren't hosting New Orleans a night after the Pelicans were in Oakland and played respectably against the Golden State Warriors, this line would likely be bigger. The still-haven't-won Pelicans gave everything they had last night, and now the number is bit jaded, as it's lower than it should be because of the effort in Oaktown.
But the fact is, that loss will trouble them tonight and they will like struggle against a Kings team that has the components to put up a big number against a weak defense.
I think we're going to see a letdown by the Pelicans, and the Kings respond with a 12-point win.
3* KINGS
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play release on the Lakers as the home chalk over the Mavericks.
New coach Luke Walton has gotten his team to believe in themselves, and Los Angeles is a surprising 4-3 straight up this year, and they enter this home game riding a 3 game winning streak that includes the scalp of the Golden State Warriors at the Staples Center last weekend!
Tonight it's the 1-5 Dallas Mavericks on the L.A. hardwood, and Dallas has dropped all 3 away from home thus far, and has failed in 2 of those 3 against the spread.
Dallas has owned Los Angeles in recent years, as the Mavs have won 10 straight in this series, and have covered in 7 of those 10. Based on those numbers, you would think Dallas would be the favorite here, but as you can see, the linesmakers are showing some belief in Walton and his upstart bunch.
I will show some belief in them as well.
Play the Lakers to snap the 10 game slide, and do so with the comfortable cover of this impost.
2* L.A. LAKERS
Bruce Marshall
Cleveland -8
Cleveland dominated this series a year ago, winning all seven SU (5-2 vs. line) against Hawks, including another playoff sweep. There were early indicators that addition of Dwight Howard had proven a boost for Atlanta's defense, but that was before the Lakers punctured Mike Budenholzer's troops for 123 points on Nov. 2. The first-week slate was also rather favorable for Hawks. Cavs started off firing on all cylinders and proved a year ago they could take care of an Atlanta team that still had since-departed Al Horford and Jeff Teague. Cavs also should be primed after two days off following narrow escape at Philly.