Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, December 21st, 2016

SPORTS WAGERS

BYU / Wyoming Under 57½

We wanted to get this one in early, as we suspect this number could come down, which gives us the option to buy it back the other way. If it does not come down, we are more than happy to let the bet stand as is.

This number is so high because the Cowboys have been putting up some pretty juicy numbers all year long. Wyoming has hung point totals of 34, 45, 38, 35, 42, 52, 66, 33 and 35 in nine of its 13 games. Only once this entire season were the Cowboys held to less than 20 points, which occurred in Week 2 in a 52-17 loss to the Cornhuskers. However, those point totals came against some very weak defenses, not only out of conference but also in conference against offensive oriented Mountain West opponents. That one game against Nebraska in which the Cowboys scored 17 is notable because BYU’s defense is not only truly legit, it’s vastly superior to the ‘Huskers defense. There is very little chance that the Cowboys are going to be racking up points or yards against this enemy.

BYU’s defense held Arizona to 16 points in its season opener. Subsequently the Cougars held Utah to 20, UCLA to 17, Michigan State to 14, Mississippi State to 21 in double OT (!), Cincinnati to 3, Southern Utah to 7, UMass to 9 and finally Utah State to 10. Even against the high flying Boise State Broncos, the Coogs held that outfit to 28 points in one of the more bizarre games you will ever see that featured trick plays, fake punts, turnovers and other stuff. We can assure you that the Cowboys of Wyoming have not seen a defense all season like the one they’ll face here. What makes this wager even more appealing is that the Cougars are coming in with a defensive mindset. You see, BYU will be playing this game without starting QB Taysom Hill, who was lost to an elbow injury in the regular-season finale. Tanner Mangum is a capable backup but they are not going to ask him to do the things that Hill did. The Cougars have a strong running game and they’ll use that and their stingy defense to completely wear down the Cowboys. The Cougars are a 9½-point favorite here. With Hill, they would have been -13 points or so, thus, if you were thinking of taking the points, that might not be a good idea. There is always an overreaction to a top QB being out, which is the case here. The Cowboys are an extremely flawed football team that is overmatched from top to bottom here and it would surprise us not if they were held to under 7 points. We may come in with a play on the Cougars later but for now, we trust going under this number is the best way to go.

DAVE COKIN

ST. JOHN’S AT SYRACUSE
PLAY: SYRACUSE -12.5

I really like the Orange in this spot, but there’s a caveat involved as well.

As for the matchup, Syracuse is going to want this one pretty badly. The Orange have lost each of the last two meetings to their formal Big East rivals. So put a check mark next to ‘Cuse on the motivation variable.

The one thing that has stood out all season for Syracuse is that when Frank Howard plays well, the team wins. When he doesn’t, the Orange lose. This looks like a game where Howard should have his way, and if that’s the case, the Orange are going to get some great looks against a pretty average St. John’s defense.

So why the holdup? I don’t know if Trevor Lyden is playing. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Syracuse can win and cover without his presence. But I’ll feel a whole lot better if Lydon is on the floor rather than occupying a courtside seat on the bench. As of now, there is no definite word on his status. Lydon suffered a strained achilles late in the first half of Monday’s massacre of Eastern Michigan. He was at practice on Tuesday, but was described as moving gingerly. However, he has not been rules out. With treatment, it conceivable that Lydon might be good to go tonight. Even at less than 100% he’s a plus factor for the Orange.

I would suggest checking the Twitter feed as game time approaches for updates on Lydon’s status. If he’s in the lineup, I’ll be laying the points with Syracuse. If he’s not, I might still add the Orange, but will reduce the wager accordingly.

Scott Spreitzer

Vanderbilt vs. Dayton
Play: Vanderbilt +8

The Flyers couldn't make a shot in the first half against Northwestern last time out. While they fought hard to get back in the game over the final 20 minutes, Dayton still came up short. The Flyers have not bounced back well off a SU loss, covering just one of their last seven in this spot. They face a Vanderbilt team that struggled inside the arc at times this season, but we have seen Luke Kornet finally snap out of his cold streak. The Commodores are one of the top teams in the nation (31st) in 3-point accuracy, while also making 78% of their FTA. We believe those two key categories will come into play in what we believe will be a close game. Look for Vandy to hang the number.

Brandon Shively

Western Michigan vs. UCLA
Pick: Western Michigan

I know this is a hold your nose type of play but I have reasoning behind it and will be making a small play on the Western Michigan Broncos. I’ll start off by saying we are getting a ton of points, close to 30. Western Michigan got out on the West Coast Sunday when they played at Washington, so they should be comfortable already in this part of the region. For UCLA, I can’t say anything bad about them. The Bruins rank 1st in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Kenpom. They haven’t shown any signs of letting up, BUT I think this is a spot where it’s a lot more likely. The reason is conference play starts next week. This is their last game before it kicks off. Their opponent when PAC 12 conference play starts? It is a double revenge game vs Oregon. I think that look ahead spot can factor into them not covering this big spread, the largest one on the board tonight.

The Bruins have covered 9 straight games. The oddsmaker is being forced to raise the line. There is a time where there is value on the underdog. I will take my chances here. Western Michigan gave Villanova a run for their money earlier this season before losing by 13. They have two players in Thomas Wilder and Tucker Haymond that I think can keep them within this number. Wilder has a sweet stroke and Haymond is the team’s lone senior having a bounceback season.

Again, no knocks on UCLA, I just see this number being too big. We should see a final score in the 23-24 point range.

Jim Feist

Virginia at Cal
Pick: Under

Virginia brings its great defense on the the road for head coach Tony Bennett. Virginia is 11-1 under the total on the road, on a 17-8 run under overall. Cal is home playing tough defense allowing 59, 59, 51, 60, 61 and 55 the last six contests. Virginia is 1-0 all-time vs. California, posting a 63-62 overtime win in Charlottesville last season.

Anthony Michael

Louisville -1

Louisville will be very fired up for a win here since they have lost their last 4 straight games to Kentucky including their last home game against the Wildcats. Kentucky will be on a bit of a downer here coming off of a thrilling game against North Carolina - this is a tough follow up to that big win. Louisville is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season and the Cardinals play much better defense than the Wildcats.

Scott Rickenbach

Capitals vs. Flyers
Play: Flyers +105

After a 3-1 loss at Dallas on Saturday it would have been logical to expect the Flyers to bounce back at home against Nashville on Monday. After all, Philadelphia had won 10 straight games prior to the loss to the Stars and also had been perfect this season when coming off of a game where they were held to one goal or less. However, the Flyers got caught looking ahead to this big "playoff revenge" game Wednesday and fell 2-1 to the Predators. The Flyers are still 3-1 this season when off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less and I look for them to bounce back here. The Flyers were very tough against the Capitals in last April's post-season series and they could be catching Washington at the ideal time for an upset. Washington has been off for 3 days and that is a situation that has seen them lose both times this season and also lose 10 of 18 (and down 7.8 net units) the past 3 seasons combined. The Flyers are 4-1 this season in home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less. The Capitals, in divisional games, have lost 6 of 10 (and down 5.8 net units) so far this season. There is value here with the hungry and highly motivated home team. By the way, the Flyers have not lost 3 straight games since early November. Bounce back time and the price is right here!

Larry Ness

Oklahoma City vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans

Russell Westbrook finished just shy of his 51st career triple-double in a tough 110-108 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, scoring 46 points to go with 11 rebounds and seven assists. Westbrook is averaging 30.9 points (first in the NBA), 10.9 assists (second) and 10.5 rebounds (13th). He is the second player in NBA history, behind Oscar Robertson in the early 1960s, to average more than 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists through the first 28 games of an NBA season. However, the Thunder are a modest 16-12 on the seaon, going 13-14 ATS .

The Pelicans also own one the the NBA’s elite players in Anthony Davis (29.6 & 11.1) but they are just 10-20 overall, going 14-16 ATS. However, it should be noted that after opening 0-8 and then 2-10, the Pelicans have been a near-.500 team, going 8-10 SU and 9-9 ATS. The return of PG Holiday has helped, as the Pelicans are 8-7 in the 15 games he’s played this season, with Holiday averaging 14.4 PPG and 6.2 APG. Davis recorded 31 points and 16 rebounds to lead New Orleans to a 108-93 road win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday, so this is a back-to-back situation for them.

OKC last played Monday in that two-point home loss to the Hawks and earlier this year, defeated the Pelicans 101-92 in Oklahoma City back on Dec. 4, with Westbrook recording his fifth consecutive triple-double (28 points, 17 rebounds and 12 assists However, SG Victor Oladipo (14.6) is expected to miss his fifth consecutive game with a wrist injury and he will be missed, because he’s OKC’s only other perimeter scorer other than Westbrook. The center duo of Kanter (12.5-5.8 ) and Adams (11.6 & 7.6) join Westbrook and Oladipo in double figures.

The Thunder have not been anything special on the road and are just 2-3 ATS as a road favorite, with one of those ATS wins coming in OT. Meanwhile, since opening 2-10 to start the season, the Pelicans are 6-3 ATS at home since Nov 18. Take the home team.

David Banks

BYU vs. Wyoming
Pick: BYU -10

There will be a new quarterback under center when BYU meets old Mountain West Conference rival Wyoming on Dec. 21 at the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego after Taysom Hill when down in the last game with a season-ending injury for the fourth time in five years. The Cougars fortunately have an experienced backup as sophomore Tanner Mangum completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,377 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as a freshman while replacing Hill, who missed all but the first half of last season's opener with a fractured foot. BYU, which leads the series 44-30-3 and won the last seven meetings before leaving the MWC in 2010, appears in its 12th straight bowl but hasn't won one since a 23-6 victory over San Diego State in the 2012 Poinsettia Bowl.

The game could come down to who better stops the run as Cowboys junior Brian Hill rushed for 1,767 yards and 21 touchdowns - good for third and second, respectively, in the MWC, but faces a stiff challenge in a Cougars' rushing defense that is eighth in the country at 108.4 yards allowed per game. BYU senior Jamaal Williams rushed for 1,165 and 11 TDs despite missing three of the last five games with an ankle injury and faces a Wyoming defense that allows 34.8 points per game - 24th-most among the 128 FBS teams in the nation - and an average of 464 total yards (17th-most). Williams rushed for 618 yards and nine scores in a three-game stretch versus West Virginia, Toledo and Michigan State this season, including a school-record five TDs and a career-high 286 yards against Toledo, and seems healthy again after rushing for 131 and a score on 18 carries in a 28-10 victory over Utah State on Nov. 26 in the Cougars' last contest.

Neil the Greek

Wyoming +10

BYU's defense looks way better then it is mainly because of who they played or didn't play. If you look at their schedule, you will see only 2 teams they have faced who were ranked in the top 40 in points per game, Toledo and Boise. And most of their opponents were ranked outside the top 90. No coincidence that the only teams who scored on them were Toledo and Boise. And guess what. The QB they will be facing Wednesday is far better then either, and will be a first round draft choice, mark it down.

Mike Rose

Northern Iowa at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -17.5

Northern Iowa has been a wretched shooting team knocking down just over 40% of its attempts. Where they've been much better however has been from beyond the arc where they convert at a near 38% clip (#90). Limited scoring will be taking place down low against UNC’s bigs, so it will be up to the sharpshooters to keep this one interesting. If they fall, UNI won't get embarrassed. If they aren't, it'll be blowout city!

This is a rematch of last year’s meeting held in Cedar Falls, IA where the Panthers upset the Tar Heels 71-67 as 6.5 point underdogs. Washpun played an integral role in helping lead the Panthers to the outright upset, but he won’t even be in the building this time around. In his absence, Jeremy Morgan must step up. If not, UNI is going to have a whale of a time attempting to not get blown off the court.

UNC has already covered -21 and -15.5 point spreads on its hardwood, and linemakers are making you eat a ton of chalk to back them in this spot as well. North Carolina simply has way too much offense for Northern Iowa to contend with, and the fact that it’s going to get killed on the glass has me optimistically laying the heavy chalk with the home team in the rematch.

Cal Sports

Kentucky at Louisville
Play: Louisville +1

There are two days that you circle on your calendar if you live in Kentucky and that is the first Saturday in May for the Derby and when Louisville and Kentucky play basketball. This game is so big that the NCAA Championship trophy will be on display. Kentucky leads the all-time series 34-15 and has won 4 straight while covering 5 in a row. During the 4 game UK win streak the Wildcats won as a 1 and 5 point favorite the last 2 games and as a 4.5 and 1 pt underdog the previous two.

The Wildcats are now 10-1 and the month of December may feel like March as they hosted and lost to UCLA, hosted Valpo and then in what very well be the game of the year beat North Carolina 103-100 last Saturday in Las Vegas. Kentucky’s high scoring offense which averages 95 PPG is led by 3 freshman and a sophomore with Malik Monk leading the way with 21.9 PPG, followed by De’Aaron Fox (15.9), Isaiah Bruce (15.9) and Edrice Adebayo (12.6). Monk threw his hat into the MVP race in Vegas by scoring 47 points hitting 18 of 28 FG’s and making 8 of 12 from 3 point land.

Louisville is also 10-1 with a 66-63 loss against Baylor in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. The Cardinals however have not been tested to the extent of their opponent as they only faced two other top 100 teams beating Purdue at home and knocking off Wichita St in the Bahamas. Louisville has the #1 adjusted defense as ranked by Kenpom.com and their offense “only” averages 78.5 PPG. Only two players average double digit scoring in Donovan Mitchell (11.7) and Quentin Snider (11.0).

My pick for tonight goes to Louisville. The Cardinals are in a great spot having played at home their last 3 games, all in a walk over manner. Kentucky, meanwhile, is off the North Carolina game and is playing their first true road game of the season. The match-up of UK’s Monk and UL’s Mitchell is worth the price of admission and Mitchell has a steal rate of 4.9 per/game and is an elite defensive player.

Wunderdog

Northern Iowa @ North Carolina
Pick: Northern Iowa +18.5

This is a tough spot for North Carolina to cover a big number, as the Tar Heels are coming off an emotional and physically draining loss to Kentucky in Las Vegas on Saturday. Justin Jackson scored 34 points and Joel Berry II added 23 points and seven assists, but the Tar Heels lost in the final seconds to the Wildcats, who shot 54.1 percent overall and 55.6 percent from long range. North Carolina is 10-2 this season, but just 5-5-1 ATS and Northern Iowa has covered seven of its last nine road games dating to last season. The Panthers actually defeated UNC 71-67 last season as a 6.5-point underdog. Northern Iowa had a two-game winning streak snapped in a loss to Iowa on Saturday as it shot just 26.8 percent. The Panthers allow just 43.2 percent shooting defensively. Look for the Panthers to bounce back and cover the big spread in this matchup, so take the points on Northern Iowa.

SPORTS WAGERS

Elon +26 over DUKE

Given the sheer popularity and prestige affixed to the Duke brand, anyone looking to back them here or on any given day should expect to pay a hefty premium. When Duke is at home, that price is more inflated. When Duke is undefeated at home, that narrative is furthered even more. When Duke is ranked in the top-five that price skyrockets even higher. When the opponent is scaled as a jobber for Duke to beat up on, the point total may be absurd. With all these variables being checked off on the list, this scenario is likely to materialize in this situation. Technically, this game is not a true home game for the Dukies because it is being played in Greensboro, N.C. but for all intents and purposes, it should be considered a home game.

We have always been proponents of situational betting and advocates of staying clear of heavy juice and spotting ridiculous numbers. When you consider the resume of Elon coming into this contest and the 5½-point swing in this market from the opening price, Duke being overvalued is vividly displayed. The Phoenix are no slouches by any means. This outfit comes in at 7-4 by way of the Colonial Athletic Association and owns some impressive results so far. The Phoenix defeated Northern Illinois on the road despite entering as a four-point pup. They also rolled USF as a four-point favorite on the road. Ultimately, the Phoenix would win six straight after losing their opener to Charlotte. To fan their hot start, Elon would take it to Georgetown on the road as a 10½-point pooch and ultimately lose by just a three-ball on the Hoyas’ own court. Elon and Duke now play each other on an annual basis and yet we have seen the Phoenix cover in three of the previous five against the Blue Devils. Look it, we’re not going to sugar-coat this and suggest that Elon is in Duke’s class because obviously they are not. If all things were equal, the Dukies could name the score here but all things are not equal. Let’s not forget that these are kids, so after this game comes the Christmas break in which they’ll all go home for 10 days. The Dukies will not play again until New Year’s Eve day. On December 31, the Blue Devils will open up ACC play against the 10-1 Virginia Tech Hokies. That’s a huge game to open up conference play and although it’s 10 days away, it’s a much bigger fish to fry than this one. Duke is likely to be on cruise control here with no desire or motivation to blow this opponent out while Elon shows up for sure and treats it like an Elite Eight game. Take the points