Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, December 28th, 2016

Buster Sports

Indiana vs. Utah
Play: Utah -7

The Hoosiers and the Utes go to Santa Clara, California to play in the Foster Farms Bowl. It is very familiar for the Utes to take a trip to California as they play in the PAC 12, the trip for Indiana is not so familiar and we believe the motivation will not be there for the Hoosiers. Indiana is a team in total shambles after firing HC Kevin Wilson for player mistreatment allegations and this will be significant as first year DC Tom Allen now takes over the HC job. Allen is missing one of his key guys on offense as WR Simmie Cobbs Jr.’s will not be able to recover from an ankle injury in mid season to make it to the Bowl game. Utah has lost 3 out of their last 4 games but they have all been close. In fact in their 3 losses they have lost by a combined 14 points. Also two of those losses came against two of the top 10 teams in the country in Colorado and Washington. We believe RB Joe Williams will just dominate today on the offensive side of the ball for the Utes. This Utah club is ranked 20th in the nation in Turnover margin and Indiana's QB Richard Lagow has 16 picks this season. Watch for the Hoosiers to lose the ball a few times today. We see a very distracted Indiana club getting beat in all facets of the game today by a very good Utah club. Backing our selection is the fact that the Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Big Ten.

Scott Spreitzer

Northwestern vs Pittsburgh
Play: Over 65

The weather shouldn't be an issue, the first thing we check when we play a total this time of year in the Bronx. Instead, the issue will be Northwestern's passing game against Pitt's 127th ranked pass defense. The Panthers allowed a whopping 343 yards passing per game this season and the Wildcats own an underrated passing game with Clayton Thorson at the helm. I also expect James Connor and the Pittsburgh running game to put together plenty of decent gains, which means both offenses will be able to attack with their strengths, move the ball consistently, and score points. Northwestern will also have to account for the underrated ability of Pitt QB Nathan Peterman. The senior signal caller threw 26 TD pass with only 6 INTs this season.

Dave Cokin

Kansas St. +2

One of the keys for me during bowl season is to try and zero in on teams that have something to play for, even if it falls into the intangibles category. The other is statistical. As anyone who has read, watched or listened to me over all these years is likely well aware, I like teams that can run the football and also stop the run. The way the game is played these days might well bear little similarity to the good ol' smashmouth days. But one constant that's still in place is that teams who excel in these two categories win football games. I suspect that will never change. Win the line of scrimmage, win the game.

Kansas State fits on both counts here. The Wildcats have solid overall numbers in the rushing department. But I think it's important to note that this Kansas State team has been improving at both aspects as the season has progressed. Fact is, the Wildcats don't throw it particularly well, so they have to get things done on the ground offensively. Opposing defensive coordinators are obviously well aware of this, yet the K-State ground game has continued to get better.

The Wildcats are also doing a good job of limiting opposing ground games. That's key here as Texas A&M was at its best this season when they were putting up big overland numbers. Trevor Knight getting hurt obviously impacted the Aggies offense. I expect Knight to be under center for this bowl game, but he's far more dangerous as a runner than passer. If the Wildcats are able to force the A&M QB to throw, that's a likely plus for Kansas State.

If I like Kansas State from a fundamentals standpoint, I like the intangibles even more. Texas A&M had dreams of something big earlier this season. But when the 6-0 Aggies got stomped by Alabama, the steam went out of their sails, and they limped down the stretch. Texas A&M managed only two wins post-Bama, and defeating New Mexico State and UTSA doesn't count for much.

On the other hand, Kansas State is living up to billing. This team was very young at the start of the season and it showed. But as they've gained experience, they've improved substantially. There are many who feel next year's Wildcats will be a force in the Big 12 and I'm one who believes Bill Snyder wants to head into the off-season with major momentum.

Snyder has downplayed that stance to some extent, but I think that's typical coachspeak. Actually, his history indicates there is indeed something to ending on a bowl game high note and having it carry over.

By no means am I suggesting Texas A&M doesn't care about winning this game. But my stance is that Kansas State is the hungrier team right now. The Wildcats ended the regular season on a far more positive note and they fit the stat profile I like best for bowl games.

I had to choose between four games I liked pretty much the same for this selection. But for the reasons listed here plus some other numbers that indicate the dog, I'm taking Kansas State plus the short number for my Bowl Game of the Year.

DAVE COKIN

BOISE STATE AT UTAH STATE
PLAY: BOISE STATE -1

I’ve got some decent ammunition to support a call on Boise State tonight as the Broncos open their Mountain West schedule with a visit to Logan against Utah State.

From a statistical standpoint, Boise State has a slight edge in the head to head comparisons in the categories I give the most weight to. It’s by no means a landslide, but there’s an advantage on the Broncos side. It’s also worth noting that Boise State has compiled those numbers against a mildly tougher strength of schedule than the Aggies. That SOS is something I believe has value in assessing what has taken place for teams prior to the onset of conference play.

The other variable I paid some heed to here is what I’ll call the Duryea factor. It’s too early to issue a stamp of disapproval on Utah State head coach Tim Duryea, as this is only his second season at the helm of the Aggies. But I think it’s worth noting that Utah State fared very poorly last season in close conference games. They were only 1-6 in games decided by six points (two possessions) or less.

There are two schools of thought as far as that record is concerned. One is that there will be a progression to the norm, that the team will have better luck in coin flip games moving forward. But the other is that it’s in close games that go to the wire where coaching really comes into play. I tend to lean toward the latter argument myself.

That said, Duryea is going to have to prove to me he can guide his team to the win column in games that go to the wire. I can definitely see that being the case tonight as there’s really not a great deal to separate these two squads. Bottom line is I trust Broncos head coach Leon Rice more than Duryea at this point if this one is close at the finish line. That means I’m siding with Boise State to get away with the win and cover tonight.

Chip Chirimbes

Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Play: Kansas State +3

Power against power as Kansas State brings its Bill Snyder power game up against Texas A&M's stout rushing defense. The Wildcats had five different running back run for 2,800 yards scoring 36 touchdowns on the ground with each back averaging at least five yards a carry. The Aggies were ranked 4th in the early season polls and started 6-0 before Alabama and only won twice the rest of the way against New Mexico State and TXSA closing the season 0-7-1 ATS. There always seems to be problems with A&M as seasons close, so I'd rather be with the better coaching and a promise that I made about the Wildcats.

Mike Lundin

Wolves vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 217½

Both Denver and Minnesota are in the bottom five for defensive efficiency this season, surrendering 108.4 and 108.0 points per 100 possessions respectively. With two such abysmal defenses I think it stands to reason that we'll see a high-scoring encounter when the two Northwest Division rivals clash at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado Wednesday night.

The 10-21 Timberwolves have played decent basketball lately and defeated the Hawks 104-90 on Monday. Karl-Anthony Towns put up another dominant performance and went 8-for-8 from the field, including 3-for-3 from beyond the arc.

The 13-18 Nuggets are also coming off a win on Monday when they defeated a shorthanded Clippers team 106-102, their fourth win in the past six games. Scoring has not been an issue for Denver this season, and the team averages 112.6 points per game home at Pepsi Center but are also giving up the same number of points.

Over is 10-3-1 in Denver's home games this season, and I think we'll see another one fly over the total tonight.

Brandon Shively

Cincinnati vs. Temple
Play: Under 136

Anytime you can get a Cincinnati game with a total of 130 or higher, there needs to be a wager placed. Since the 2010 season, they are 71-28 UNDER since 2010 (72%) with a total of 130 or higher. On the road with a total of 130+, the Bearcats are 11-1 UNDER since the start of last year with an average final total score of 121 points.

The Bearcats consistently rank as a top 20 defense and one of the slower tempo teams in the nation. They will be playing with triple revenge tonight against a Temple team that beat them both meetings last year and the final meeting in the 14-15 season. Temple appears that they will be without their senior point guard who led the AAC in assist:turnover ratio last year. The Owls have a lot of freshmen here that I don’t think are ready for this Cincy defense that will be eager to put the clamps down after Marshall put up 50 points in the first half against them last week. When playing with triple revenge, Cincy has held their last two opponents to 53 and 58 points (in 2015 and 2014 against UConn and Memphis).

Coach Fran Dunphy for Temple is a defensive minded coach. His guys can’t run with Cincinnati and win the game. The only way I think they have a chance is playing in the halfcourt with the Bearcats. I am looking for a tough fought game finishing right in the 129-130 range.

Jim Feist

Brooklyn at Chicago
Pick: Under

Brooklyn is a poor shooting team, #22 in the NBA in field goal shooting, on a 3-1-1 run under the total. They head to Chicago, a strong defensive team, fifth in the NBA in points allowed. Chicago 21-8 under the total against the Eastern Conference, plus the Under is 20-6-1 in the Bulls last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Harry Bondi

Northwestern / Pittsburgh Under 64.5

Pat Narduzzi came over to Pittsburgh to take the head coaching job after a brilliant run as defensive coordinator with Michigan State, but the Panthers “D” has been a disaster this year. But with a full month to prepare for this game and a number of key players on the defensive side getting healthy and returning for this game, we expect the best effort of the season from the Pitt stop unit today that gets to face a Big 10 opponent that Narduzzi is quite familiar with. Meanwhile, Northwestern has remained an “under” team, despite changing the offense to a more up-tempo attack this season. The Wildcats went under in eight out of their 12 games this season and dating back the last three years they have gone under in 63% of their games. According to our database, this is the highest total for a Northwestern game since the team’s bowl game against Texas A&M in 2011. And, of course, with a total of 69, that game went way under with just 55 points scored. Play the under at Yankee Stadium today.

David Banks

Texas A&M vs. Kansas St
Pick: Texas A&M -3

The Advocare V100 Texas Bowl features two opponents who have been somewhat surprising in 2016. Texas A&M started the season 6-0 and was ranked in the Top 10 before an injury to QB Trevor Knight led to a surprising flop down the stretch. The Aggies lost four of their last six games to finish 8-4. Their opponent, Kansas State, won five of their last six games to surprise everyone in the Big 12 and finish third in the conference. The matchup rekindles an old Big 12 rivalry that was at its height in the 1998 conference title game. The Aggies ruined the Wildcats' perfect season that year.

This time around, both teams are far from perfect. One good thing for Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin is that he will have Knight back at quarterback. He has thrown for 2,122 yards and 16 touchdowns and has rushed for 594 more and 10 scores. Knight could be a key to the Texas A&M run game against a Kansas State defense that is 11th in the nation against the run allowing only 112.6 yards per game. Trayveon Williams (1,024 yards rushing) is the Aggies leading rusher and Keith Ford has added 583.

Kansas State relies heavily on the run as seen in its final four games. Led by quarterback Jesse Ertz, the team's leading rusher with 945 yards, the Wildcats rushed for 330 yards or more in three of their last four games. Charles Jones, Alex Barnes, and Justin Silmon give KSU four backs with at least 387 yards rushing. They will go up against a defense that features Aggies DE Myles Garrett, who will likely be the top pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Garrett has 8.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss this season.

SPORTS WAGERS

Northwestern/Pitt Over 63

Pittsburgh owns an impressive collection of wins when you consider they defeated two conference champions playing in the College Football Playoff and a New Year’s Six Bowl Game. This of course is a reference to Pittsburgh’s shocking defeat of #2 Clemson at Death Valley and their early season defeat of Big Ten Champion, Penn State. What the Panthers do very well is score points and it’s up to the opposition to keep pace, which they usually do.

The Panthers resume consists of a 42-39 win over Penn State, a 37-36 loss to North Carolina, a 45-38 loss to Oklahoma State, a 37-34 victory over Georgia Tech, a 39-36 loss to Va Tech, a 43-42 win over Miami and an eye-opening 76-61 victory over Syracuse. The point is that when Pitt punches, the opposition almost always punches back with little resistance. Pitt’s defense is abhorrent against the pass, as they are one of the worst in all of America with a 127th national ranking. This outfit also surrenders 35.6 points per game and 452 yards of total offense per game. New LSU coordinator Matt Canada is staying on through the bowl to run a James Connor-led Pitt attack that averaged more than 58 points per game over the season's final three games.

The story of Northwestern's season has been the blossoming of a passing game to complement stud tailback Justin Jackson. That's happened thanks to the rapid improvement of quarterback Clayton Thorson and the emergence of Austin Carr as the Big Ten's best receiver. Pitt will not be able to cover Carr, who will have the kind of day worthy of the first pick in a bowl fantasy draft, and the ‘Cats are pretty well equipped to keep pace in the kind of shootout the Panthers are likely to drag them into. We’re not usually in favor of playing totals but our work on this game reveals a fair price on both sides and therefore picking a side is difficult. The number has been dropping today too, which makes us leery of the underdog. Lastly, the weather in New York appears to be perfect for football with sunny skies, the temperature just above freezing and little wind. Let the track meet begin.

Miami -3 over West Virginia

What you are going to read or hear about regarding this game is that the Hurricanes have dropped six bowl games in a row. That’s true and it will influence some folks into fading Miami but it’s not going to influence us one iota, as this is a different team under Mark Richt and he’s taken his clubs to a few of these bowl games in the past. It’s actually more motivating to the Hurricanes because it’s been made into an issue and we’re pretty sure that they’re all sick of hearing about it. Richt has credentials. He was hired as head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs before the 2001 season. Richt's teams won two Southeastern Conference (SEC) championships (2002 and 2005), six SEC Eastern Division titles and nine bowl games. His teams represented the SEC in three BCS bowl appearances with a record of 2–1, and finished in the top-10 of the final AP Poll seven times.

Miami went 8-4 during the season. The Virginia Tech game got away from the Canes, but the FSU, UNC and Notre Dame losses were all games Miami could have (and in the case of the FSU and Notre Dame games, probably should have) won. The key is how they responded from that four-game midseason losing streak. In that regard, the ‘Canes won their final four games of the year all by at least two TDs, including a 23-point win over Pitt. Miami is quietly in very good form.

West Virginia (10-2) had a great year for a team that was nowhere near the top-25 in the polls before the season began. Now the Mountaineers come in as the 16th ranked team in the country. Always be leery of ranked teams getting points against unranked opponents because it’s usually not a good bet. You may have noticed that the odd makers have never released their top-25. West Virginia has beaten two teams with a winning record this year -- BYU and Kansas State. The Mountaineers barely got by Baylor and Texas, winning by three and four points respectively. Playing one ranked team all season, WVU hosted #9 Oklahoma in Morgantown and proceeded to get steamrolled, 56-28. The Mountaineers scored 14 of those points in the fourth quarter when they were down 41-14. Miami is a top-15 defense. ‘Canes QB Brad Kaaya has also played really good football over the last four games of the season (10 TDs, 1 INT and 315 YPG). Mark Richt has slowly but surely made progress with the Hurricanes and now he’ll likely put a stamp on it to end the season. Incidentally, this game is in Orlando but keep it quiet, eh.

Utah -5½ over Indiana

What we have here is an opportunity to take back what we like to call a ‘short-priced’ favorite. The Utes could have easily come into this game spotting the Hoosiers double-digits under different circumstances. However, the Utes have lost three of their overall four losses this season in the final third of their regular season docket so their stock is lower than it should be. The Utes lost in gut-wrenching fashion in each instance. We will dismiss Utah’s early season hiccup at California and focus on their last three losses. First, Utah lost at the tail end of the fourth quarter at home against Washington, the Pac-12 Champion and the #4 seed in the College Football Playoff by virtue of an uncanny punt return touchdown. Utah would take out its anger the following week on visiting Arizona State before it would be stunned in a two-point loss to Oregon. That loss to the Ducks sticks out, as the Utes lost as an 11-point favorite. Utah would follow this up with a regular season concluding loss at Colorado, the team who represented the Pac-12 South in the Conference’s Championship Game The Utes lost by just five points to Colorado but it should be noted that they were a 10½-point dog and had a chance to win that one too. Had fortune been reversed ever so slightly with Utah, we could potentially be discussing the Utes as a #4 seed in the College Football Playoff, but we will stay clear of hyperbole. Utah is a football team that is better than their record projects. Its wins over BYU, USC and others showcase the potential this team has.

The same cannot be said for Indiana, who does not own a win over a team with a record greater than .500 this season. In fact, IU defeated just one opponent who even managed to qualify for a bowl game (Maryland). Incidentally, Maryland lost to Boston College in the Quick Lane Bowl and allowed 36 points to a team that had trouble moving five yards all season. The Hoosiers remaining victims were FIU, Ball State, Michigan State, Purdue and Rutgers to comprise an effort that deemed them bowl eligible. The Hoosiers beat a brutally inept Rutgers team by one score, 33-27 and they barely got by an even worse Purdue team, 26-24. The Hoosiers have made a living off of bottom-feeding this year. It is also worth noting that four of IU’s six wins this season came at home. Now they have to travel across the country to face a Pac-12 opponent accustomed to playing on the West Coast on a regular basis. While the game may be neutral in terms of site, the match-up is anything but even and if all that doesn’t convince you, perhaps this will: Indiana just fired its coach heading into this game and will miss Kevin Wilson's offensive expertise while Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is 8-1 in Bowl games with a 7-2 ATS record.

Kansas State +125 over Texas A&M

For the Wabash Cannonballs a.k.a. the artist formerly known as K-State, Bill Snyder coached this unit up to win five of its last six and ultimately earn this bowl bid. Previous to this run, the Wildcats were sitting at 3-3 after they were rolled by the Big 12 Champion Oklahoma in Norman on October 15th. Since then, it’s been all-academic for the ‘Cats, as they won on the road at Texas, Baylor and TCU, games they were expected to lose. The Wildcats are a small dog here and it’s worth noting that they’re 4-0 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season, including three outright wins. Snyder figures to have his team ready, as he always does in these Bowl games but this wager is actually more about fading the Aggies.

These two teams know each other well from A&M’s days as a Big 12 constituent before they moved on to greener pastures in the SEC. Since joining the SEC, the Aggies have certainly tallied up their fair amount of bumps and bruises and undoubtedly may look at this contest with malcontent because they had bigger things on their mind just a short while ago. You see, at one-point the Aggies sat at #4 in the College Football Playoff rankings. They were 6-0 at one point before playing Alabama and losing 33-14. The Aggies would respond the very next week with a 52-10 victory over New Mexico State before hitting the skids in the final four weeks.

A&M would go 1-3 down the backstretch. They lost at 5-7 Mississippi State while being defeated in their own backyard by both LSU and Mississippi, a team that failed to qualify for a bowl in 2016. The Aggies only win over this stretch was against UTSA but even the Roadrunners tested them. As a 27½-point choice, A&M beat UTSA by just 13. The Aggies are on a current run of 0-8 against the spread and are clearly a team that has been overvalued at an almost abusive capacity. They have been sluggish and flat since Alabama made an example out of them in Tuscaloosa in October and we don’t see anything changing here after a month layoff. A&M has played uninspired football and if one loss in the regular season can deplete their outlook on an entire season, we can only fathom how they will approach this bowl operating with a mindset that perhaps they could have been in a game of larger consequence. This mindset of course is superfluous because had they taken care of business against teams like Ole Miss and Miss State, they would assuredly be a viable candidate for a New Year’s Six Bowl Game. However no such event occurred and Kansas State will come in with the right attitude like they always do and put the Aggies out of their misery. If A&M was going to show something, wouldn't they have done so in the season finale at Kyle Field? Instead the Aggies were blown out that night. Now they face a team which is physical, will be well prepped and will care -- all the things that do not create an ideal bowl opponent, especially for a team that may have packed it in. K-State outright gets this call.

Brandon Powell

Georgetown vs. Marquette
Play: Georgetown +4½

Marquette has struggled over their past couple games, and Georgetown has already proved that this team can win on the road. Marquette is really struggling defensively as they are allowing 80 ppg to decent competition. Georgetown is the better coached team and in my opinion has a few more playmakers than Marquette. I think its great we are getting 4.5 as I think that Georgetown has a real shot at winning this game outright.

Scott Rickenbach

Massachusetts vs. Georgia St
Play: Over 145½

At first glance this total may seem high. This is particularly true when you consider that Georgia State is 6-2 to the under so far this season and Massachusetts is 5-2 to the under so far this season. However, the big total is absolutely justified. For one thing, don't look for a lot of intense defense from either team here as they each have a conference game on deck. This is the time of year when teams are wrapping up non-conference action and starting to focus on their conference slate that lies ahead. Also adding to the likelihood of a "loosely played" game here is that each team is playing in their first game since the Christmas break so rotations on defense are unlikely to be crisp or smooth and that gives an edge to aggressive offense players. On that note, the Panthers have not shot well in true road games this season but at neutral site games and home games Georgia State has been fantastic. They have averaged 87.5 points per game in those 6 games and have averaged well over 50% from the floor in those games. The Minutemen tend to score well no matter where they play as they have averaged 74.1 points per game this season and have shot better than 44.2% in 7 of their last 10 games. Look for plenty of offense in this one in early afternoon action Wednesday. The over is 2-0 in UMass road games this season and 22-11 long-term when they are a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points.

Executive Sports

Providence at Xavier
Play: Xavier -9.5

Xavier (10-2) hosts Providence (10-3) in their Big East opener. Xavier won the past 3 meetings between these 2.

XAVIER hitting on all cylinders now as they hit 51% and 50% from the field in their last 2 games - while holding their opponents to only 36% and 39% from the field. Providence hit an average of 41% from the field in their last 2 games, and in their last game gave up 53% from the field.

XAVIER is 9-1 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

XAVIER is 20-9 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

XAVIER is 15-6 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.