Oskeim Sports
Northwestern vs Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -4
Pittsburgh enters the Pinstripe Bowl with an explosive offense that is averaging 42.3 points and 447 total yards per game at 6.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive. The Panthers’ attack is equally effective on the ground (1.1 yards per rush attempt better than average) and in the air (1.7 yards per pass play better than average).
New LSU coordinator Matt Canada is staying on through the bowl to run Pittsburgh’s offense, and we can expect another prolific game from both running back James Connor and quarterback Nathan Peterman. The Panthers averaged an incredible 58 points per game over their final three games, including posting 76 points against Syracuse in their season finale.
Pittsburgh’s attack has also been extremely efficient inside the red zone, averaging 6.1 points per red zone opportunity (national average is 4.9 points per red zone opportunity). Northwestern fields a solid defense that is 0.4 yards per play better than average (5.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play), which is not good enough to contain Pittsburgh’s prolific attack.
Northwestern’s issue has been a subpar offense that is 0.1 yards per play worse than average, which matches up evenly with a pedestrian Pittsburgh stop unit that is 0.1 yards per play worse than average. The Wildcats’ ground game is led by tailback Justin Jackson, who garnered 1,300 rushing yards at 4.9 yards per carry in 2016.
The development of quarterback Clayton Thorson has also been impressive, and he has found a favorite target in wide receiver Austin Carr who some claim is the best receiver in the Big Ten Conference. However, Pittsburgh still possesses a significant advantage on the offensive side of the ball in this game.
The Panthers won six of their final 8 eight games, including upsetting Clemson on the road as 21.5-point underdogs. Pittsburgh is also the only team in the nation to defeat two Power 5 conference champions, while all four of its losses came against fellow bowl teams. Three of Pittsburgh’s four losses were by one score.
With Pittsburgh standing at 6-1 ATS in its last seven December affairs, lay the points with the Panthers.
Brett Atkins
Panthers, departing RB James Connor, and departing offensive coordinator Matt Canada's last rodeo in bowl play, and with Pitt having dropped their last pair of bowl games, look for this trip to Yankee Stadium to be a "special" one for Pittsburgh and their fans.
6-6 Northwestern is their opponent, and it's a Wildcats team that doesn't have the firepower, nor the defensive prowess to keep this game close the whole way.
True, the Pittsburgh defense will never be confused with the fable "Steel Curtain" of the 1970's, but the Panthers scoring power makes them a "go with" today in the Bronx.
Northwestern got crushed in their bowl game last season by Tennessee, and while normally a case could be made for siding with the Big 10 over the ACC, this Pat Fitzgerald coached Wildcats team is not nearly as good as some of the past units he has assembled. Northwestern's only 2 straight up wins over their last 5 games came against the bottom-feeders of the loop -- Purdue and Illinois.
Expect the Panthers to crank up their offense and outscore the Wildcats in this year's Pinstripe Bowl.
Play on Pitt.
3* PITTSBURGH
Dave Essler
UMass / Georgia St Under 145
Ga State will want to slow the game down. Umass AND GSU both suck from the line, and the both tend to get sloppy with the ball. Turnovers create wasted possessions, and UMass has two Fr on the floor. If and when GSU steals, they won't likely run. Umass shoot a lot of three's - that's GSU's defensive strength. GSU just knows they're a lot more likely to win a game in the 60's than 70's.
Bruce Marshall
Virginia +3
The 'Ville could not solve Tony Bennett's vexing UVa defense a year ago, as the Cards didn't reach even 50 points in either of their lopsided losses vs. the Cavs. That could help fuel a revenge motive here. But UVa might be playing even better defense this season (allowing a nation's best 46.7 ppg...more than 10 points lower than next-ranked Miami-Fla. and Old Dominion!), and Rick Pitino has not figured out how to detonate a transition game the past couple of years vs. Bennett. Bennett has also not missed Memphis transfer Austin Nichols (booted from team after just one game), as UVa is hitting 51% from the floor, 7th best in nation thru last week.
TEDDY DAVIS
Seton Hall vs. Creighton
Play: Seton Hall +7½
I have no problem taking the points with Seton Hall as I feel they are a top 25 team. Creighton is very good no doubt about it, but Seton Hall matches up extremely well with them. I also don't like the spot here for the Blue Jays as they host Villanova next which will be their biggest game of the season. Creighton could easily look past Seton Hall in this spot and if they do they could very well go down.
JOHN RYAN
NC State -16½
NC State has gone through the season warmup series of games in good form. They did play Creighton, who is undefeated, and lost 112-94 in their fourth game of the season. Since, then the focus has been on the defensive end. NC State has allowed less than 37% shooting in the last 4 games. Rider is coming off a horrid shooting game making just 34% of their shots in a 78-67 SUATS loss at UMASS. Rider has not faced a team with the depth, athleticism, and talent of an NC State squad. We expect Rider to struggle to score throughout this game.
DAVE PRICE
Charlotte Hornets -4
The Charlotte Hornets will be hungry to bounce back from a poor 118-120 road loss to the Brooklyn Nets in their first game following Christmas. I think they get the job done against an Orlando Magic team that they have dominated lately. The Hornets are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings, winning by 21, 14, 8 and 4 points. And the Magic are expected to be without leading scorer Evan Fournier (17.8 PPG), who is doubtful with a shin injury. The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Magic are 1-8 in their last 9 Wednesday games. The Hornets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Orlando.
TONY KARPINSKI
Wolves vs. Nuggets
Play: Wolves +4½
This is a poor matchup for the Nuggets with a Minnesota team that is well equiped to deal with a player like Nikola Jokic. Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng should be able to get Jokic in early foul trouble which will heavily favor the Wolves. Look for Wiggins and Lavine to play big minutes and provide plenty of offense tonight in Denver. I think the T- Wolves are a good value at +4 points and I'll back them on the road here on Wednesday night. Expect a lot of points to be scored in this one and Minnesota to step up in the 4th quarter and get the win.
BRANDON LEE
Bulls -9
I have not problem laying this big number with the Bulls at home against the Nets. Chicago has had their struggles of late, but come in off a 90-85 win at home against the Pacers to snap a 3-game skid. This is a game the Bulls won't overlook and that should result in an easy double-digit win. The Nets won 120-118 at home against Charlotte last time out, but have not won consecutive games all season and are losing by more than 10 ppg after a win. Brooklyn is also just 1-14 away from home on the year, where they are getting outscored by 11.1 ppg. Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, while Nets are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after a home win scoring 110 or more points.
JACK JONES
Indiana vs. Utah
Play: Utah -5.5
The Indiana Hoosiers are a mess right now. Kevin Wilson resigned amid allegations of player mistreatment on December 1st, and these players will miss their leader. By all accounts, Wilson was a demanding head coach, and he would have kept the players focused for this bowl game. I think that is a big question mark now as these players will treat this more like a vacation right now instead of a business trip.
The Utes always treat their bowl games like business trips. In fact, they are 15-4 in their last 19 bowl games, including 9-1 under Kyle Wittingham, which is the best winning percentage (90%) amoug coaches in NCAA history. The Utes have gone 5-1 in their last six meetings with Big Ten opponents, which includes two wins over Indiana dating back to 2001.
“The biggest factor in our bowl success is the way our players approach the game and the work they put in,” Whittingham told reporters. “Our guys are excited to head to California which is right in our recruiting footprint.”
Indiana didn’t exactly look like it wanted to go to a bowl game in its season finale against Purdue. The Hoosiers survived a 26-24 scare as 21-point home favorites against the Boilermakers, who were one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season. That effort really has me questioning their motivation for this game as well.
The Hoosiers managed just 269 total yards while committing four turnovers against an awful Purdue defense. They turned the ball over at least four times in four games this season, and QB Richard Lagow threw 16 interceptions on the year. Now they’ll be up against a Utah team that thrives off of turnovers, getting 28 takeaways on the season. Indiana’s offensive line will be overmatched by a dominant Utah defensive line led by All-American DE Hunter Dimick, who led the conference with 14.5 sacks.
Utah was better than its 8-4 record would indicate. The four losses came by a combined 19 points this season. The Utes’ offense got a huge boost when senior RB Joe Williams came out of retirement. He registered five 100-yard games en route to 1,185 rushing yards, which is the seventh-best mark in single-season Utah history despite missing four games. Another weapon is punter Mitch Wishnowsky, who won the Ray Guy Award with the best net punting average in the nation (44.9).
The Utes are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 non-conference games. Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Big Ten opponents. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. The Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Indiana is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games on two or more weeks of rest. Utah is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 when playing with two or more weeks of rest.
JIMMY BOYD
Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -4
I’m going to back the Panthers laying less than a touchdown against the Wildcats. Pittsburgh is a program on the rise under head coach Pat Narduzzi. The Panthers come into their bowl game with a ton of confidence. They followed up their upset of Clemson with a 56-14 beating of Duke and 76-61 win over Syracuse.
I also think we see Pitt come out with a chip on their shoulder after their poor showing in last year’s bowl game. The Panthers lost 28-44 as a mere 3-point dog to Navy. I know it wasn’t much better for the Northwestern. The Wildcats got destroyed 45-6 by Tennessee in the Outback Bowl. However, Northwestern is just 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Pat Fitzgerald.
Pitt offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, has taken the same job at LSU. The big key here, is that Canada is sticking with the Panthers until after the bowl game. That’s huge, as Pittsburgh’s offense has been unstoppable. The Panthers scored at least 28 points in every single game this season. Eclipsing 35 points in 10 or more games.
I just don’t see Northwestern being able to keep pace offensively. The Wildcats finished a mere 77th in total offense with the 103rd ranked rushing offense. Northwestern will likely have some success throwing the ball, but not enough to cover. Keep in mind that same Duke team that Pitt scored 56 on, the Wildcats only managed 24 against them.
I also like that the Panthers are a senior dominated team, which only adds to their motivation in this game. I also like that Narduzzi is a defensive-minded guy. I think given the extra time to prepare, he’s going to have the Pitt defense ready to rock.
MIKE ANTHONY
Indiana vs. Utah
Play: Indiana
Indiana receivers are playing well enough, and they are making enough plays down the field. They get the plays when the team needs it. Nick Westbrook has been getting Indiana 18.7 YPC and Utah isn't going to be able to do enough about it. Anytime a team plays against a team, coached by Kevin Wilson - they are going in for an ugly fight. Utah will have to get protection for their QB. And I don't trust their Oline nearly enough to do that - vs a team that has 3 guys with 4+ sacks on the season. Utes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
FRANK JORDAN
West Virginia vs. Miami
Play: Miami -2.5
West Virginia is 16th in the country with a 10-2 mark and Miami Florida comes in at 8-4, but with the game in Orlando Florida it makes sense that the crowd will be more in favor of Miami. West Virginia comes in playing well having won four of their last five games and scored at least 24 points in each game. Miami Florida comes into this game having won four in a row and scored 27+ in each game. This game is lining up to be a shoot out with each team scoring in the high 40s in number of touchdowns. Both teams had a balanced attack of rushing and passing touchdowns with Miami picking up more yards through they air and West Virginia more 50/50. Look for the passing game of Miami to be the difference as their quick scoring attack helping them regain leads over West Virginia trying to run the ball taking time as the Hurricanes win 37-34 behind a strong outing from Brad Kaaya.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +120 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. The Blue Notes are without question the most overrated team in the West because they have 18 wins and 41 points in 35 games. They got hot for a while in late October and most of November but the wheels are starting to come off this below average team and so we’ll continue to fade them regularly. St. Louis has two wins in their last seven games, one against New Jersey and one against Dallas. Against Dallas, the Blues were outshot 38-22 and out-chanced 26-12. Had Larry King been in net for Dallas, St. Louis would’ve likely lost that one too. The Blues have amassed 23, 22, 27, 27, 26 and 23 shots on net in five of their last six. The Blues puck possession numbers are dropping rapidly. St. Louis now ranks 21st in puck possession and 26th out of 30 teams over the past 15 games in puck possession. The Blues have out-chanced three of their past 15 opponents. To make matters worse, their goaltending duo of Jake Allen and Carter Hutton (who starts tonight), is one of the worst combos in the league with Hutton sporting a weak .896 save percentage and Jake Allen sporting one that isn’t much better.
The Flyers have scored the fourth most goals in the league. They have also won 11 of their last 14 games including a 3-2 victory against the Caps the night before they lost to New Jersey, 4-0. That win against Washington essentially put the Flyers on holidays because they wanted nothing to do with that game in New Jersey the very next night prior to breaking. What is even more impressive about the Flyers current run (11-2-1 in their past 14 games) is that they have been held without a power-play goal in 15 chances over the past six games so once the PP starts scoring, Philly is going to be even more difficult to beat. The Flyers are trending up while the Blue notes are trending down in a big way. Furthermore, this will be the first of a three-game trip for the Flyers and it opens a six-game home-stand for the Blues. The St. Louis home stretch includes the outdoor Winter Classic matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks in five days from now and that’s a big deal in St. Louis right now, which could also negatively affect the Blues in this game and in their next game against Nashville too. It will mark the Blues first ever outdoor game.
Toronto +111 over FLORIDA
OT included. There is no question that the Florida Panthers are a feisty bunch that play hard every time they take the ice. They have several good pieces but so does every team in the NHL. The bottom line is that the Panthers have to play a REALLY good game to win and anything less means they are likely to lose. The Panthers are 15-14-6 or 15-20. They have played the 17th toughest schedule in the league and their **simple system rating (SRS) ranks them 23rd out of 30 teams. In 19 games against top 16 teams, Florida has four wins and 15 losses. They also have just four wins in their past 14 games and those victories occurred against Vancouver, Colorado, Detroit and Buffalo. An argument can be made for that quartet being four of the worst six teams in the league.
The best thing about the Maple Leafs is that they are 14-12-7 or 14-19 and have less points than the Panthers. That is so great because we’re getting prices on them against teams that are inferior to them and in this case, vastly inferior. Toronto might be the best five games under .500 team in the past 30 years. Offensively, the Leafs rank extremely high in all analytical categories and are first or second best in most of them. Mike Babcock has taken a slightly damaged Nazem Kadri and molded him into one of the most effective and underrated players in the game. Kadri is wickedly talented (both offensively and defensively) and has now earned himself top-six minutes on one of Toronto’s top two lines. Toronto’s last two wins were over Colorado and Arizona so not much stock is being put into it but they did outscore that pair 10-1. The Maple Leafs have allowed three goals or less in 13 straight games and two or less in eight of those so it’s not just offense that Babcock is working on. Toronto is an upper echelon team that is priced like an average one and it’s something we must continue to try to take advantage of.
**SRS is a rating that takes into account average goal differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in goals above/below average, where zero is average. (Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference.com has written a great explanation of this method).
Power Sports
Sacramento vs. Portland
Pick: Portland
Sure, the Kings arrive in Portland having won four in a row. But all four wins have been by five points or less. In fact, going back to an upset of the Grizzlies on 12.16, the team's last five wins have all come within that margin. This is now officially the team's longest win streak of the season and I feel the bubble is due to burst. One of the four wins came against Portland, a game where the Kings shot 55.6% overall, including 10 of 23 from three-point range. Those numbers are highly unlikely to be duplicated here on the road.
The Blazers are desperate team right now. They've lost six in a row and don't at all resemble the playoff teams of the last couple years. They are last in the league, both at the betting window (12-21 ATS) and in defensive efficiency. That's a bad combo to lay claim to. But this losing streak and the revenge angle should be motivating enough for them to get the 'W' at home, where typically they play a lot better. They still have a winning record at the Moda Center even after three straight losses here. Two of those have been by four points or less. Given recent results, it's time to sell high on the Kings and buy low on the Blazers as a close one should go Portland's way. I can't see the justification for the Blazers being any lower than a three-point favorite in this spot, provided Damian Lillard plays.