Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, November 15th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

EASTERN MICHIGAN AT MIAMI OHIO
PLAY: EASTERN MICHIGAN +3.5

This is one of those games where my numbers absolutely indicate value on one side, but my enthusiasm is tempered due to the intangibles involved. Nevertheless, as one who puts faith in getting an edge in terms of the betting line, I’d still only play the dog tonight as Eastern Michigan visits Miami Ohio.

EMU has had a remarkably frustrating campaign. The Eagles pretty much lead the nation in close losses. Unfortunately, there have been so many Eastern Michigan will not qualify for a second straight bowl appearance and they’re now playing for pride.

Miami has also been somewhat of a disappointment. The Redhawks are just 4-6, and they too have gotten the worst of it in the close games. But Miami still has a great chance to get to that magic six-win level with a win tonight as they only have pathetic Ball State remaining on their slate.

Power ratings have EMU as the slightly stronger team and I do believe that’s the case. I have Eastern Michigan four points better than Miami n a neutral field. Even factoring in the status of the Redhawks as the host tonight, I make the game about even.

The number reflects the situation, which certainly would appear to favor the Redhawks for the aforementioned reasons. But I’ve always considered variables such as the ones involved here to be guesswork, rather than anything based on factual data. So I’m suggesting the adjustment for the situation is perhaps a bit more than it ought to be. That being the case, I would jayvee to lean Eastern Michigan’s way tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Wizards vs. Heat
Play: Wizards +1

Washington has caught fire on the offensive end, making 47.4% of their shots on the season. They will push the tempo and that should be a problem for a Miami team off a long road trip (10 days) and one without the weapons to "keep up." Miami has covered just 10 of their last 35 off a road trip of a week or longer. Home court has been a serious bankroll burner for those backing the Heat. They'll head into tonight's contest on a 0-9-2 ATS slide at home. Washington is using a lot of its bench and the reserves have been responding. They'll bring a steady rotation of fresh bodies into this one and we believe it'll prove to be too much for the Heat. The Wizards are top-5 in offensive efficiency, while the Heat struggle in this key category. At the same time, the teams are quite close on the defensive end.

Cappers Club

76ers vs. Lakers
Play: 76ers -3

The Philadelphia 76ers will look for the sweep over the Los Angeles teams on Wednesday night, and I think they will get that done, and cover the spread.

The 76ers have been a bit inconsistent this year, but they come into this game off a huge win over the Clippers in this game.

A lot of that had to do with Joel Embiid. He played for 36 minutes against the Clippers and put up 32 points, and 16 rebounds.

They finally seem to be taking the minutes restrictions off Embiid, and he has not disappointed. When he is on the court there is no one that can stop him, and I think that will be the case again in this one.

I don't think the Lakers will have any answer for Embiid and he will lead this team to big victory.

Some trends to note. 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Pacific. 76ers are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

Joe DelPopolo

Toledo vs. Bowling Green
Play: Toledo -17

Based on my Stat-Key Power Raking system and predictive math-model Toledo will squeak out the cover in this one. Bowling Green has a horrible defense and Toledo will be motivated after last weeks loss on the road.

Jimmy Boyd

UC-Santa Barbara vs. Pittsburgh
Play: UC-Santa Barbara +5½

Pittsburgh came into this season looking like they were headed for a finish in the basement of the ACC standings and so far they are looking the part. The Panthers lost at Navy 62-71 as a 5-point dog in their opener and followed that up with a 78-83 loss at home to Montana. I expect the struggles to continue here.

One thing that both those first two teams that Pitt played is experience, each returning 4 starters. It just so happens that UC-Santa Barbara has 4 starters back, plus all their top reservers and juco transfer Leland King. Sophomore Max Heidegger didn't start last year, but started the opener and put up 33 points, while King added 23.

The reason the Panthers are down is they have zero experience to fall back on. Pitt lost 4 seniors and had 5 other players transfer out of the program. They only brought back 3 players from last year's team and one of those was a walk-on. This team is simply getting too much respect, even against a small school like the Gauchos.

Ben Burns

Magic vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -5

There are no must-win games in mid-November, but the Trail Blazers are looking at a we-really-need-to-win battle tonight at home against the Magic. The Blazers are stuck in the muddle of the middle – 7-6 this season after finishing 41-41 last season – and they are ending a 6-game homestand and getting ready to play 6 of the next 7 on the road. They need some momentum and their 17-point win over Denver on Monday certainly helps. A couple of lineup changes by coach Terry Stotts got everyone’s attention and with a longer (10-man) rotation, the Blazers should have plenty of confidence against Orlando.

Sean Murphy

76ers vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +3

This is the tail-end of a long five-game road trip for the 76ers, who have gone a respectable 2-2 so far on the jaunt, and are fresh off a win over the Clippers right here at Staples Center on Monday.

The common line of thinking is that this is a winnable game for Philadelphia against a young Lakers squad that should be in for a letdown following a big road win in Phoenix on Monday. I'm not sure this will be the gimme for the Sixers that most expect, however.

Philadelphia is still learning to win on the road and this is one of those spots where I'm not sure it will be able to match the opposition's energy level for four quarters. The Sixers will be looking ahead to a three-game in five-night homestand that will tip off on Friday. Tough spot here to be laying points on the highway.

Teddy Davis

76ers vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +3

There is value here with the Lakers tonight catching points. I just dont think they should be underdogs here tonight. Lakers return home from a 4 game road trip. Their losses were against the Wizards, Celtics and Bucks all 3 of those teams are top teams in the Eastern Conference. I also like the fact that the 76ers last time out beat the Clippers, but the Clippers team is very banged up right now. I do like this Sixers team going forward just not this spot.

Bruce Marshall

Nevada at Santa Clara
Pick: Nevada

Nevada has rolled out a cool 88 points in each of two impressive wins out of the chute, with rampaging F Jordan Caroline hitting Rhode Island for 28 on Monday and the transfer Martin twins from NC State combining for almost 40 ppg. This Wolf Pack edition looks even better than a year ago; not sure SCU can keep pace.

Jim Feist

76ers at Lakers
Pick: Under

The 7-6 Philadelphia 76ers travel west to play the 6-8 Lakers in LA. Philly has been doing well against the spread, covering nine of their 13 games. In addition, they have done well against the NBA Pacific, going 8-2 ATS their last 10 vs the division and 37-14 their last 51 against the West. The Sixers snapped their two game losing streak here in LA against the Clippers with a nice 109-105 win as a six-point dog. Philly had won five straight prior to their two-game losing streak. The Lakers also snapped their three game losing streak with a win at Phoenix, 100-93. The Lakers have been a very good under team in recent times with seven of their last 10 home games going UNDER. In addition, the Lakers are 7-16 O/U their last 23 against the NBA Atlantic division. The last nine meetings between these teams have seen the under come in six times. Philly has gone under in three of their last four and six of their last eight games. Look for this contest to go under tonight.

Wunderdog

California Davis @ Pacific
Pick: Pacific -3.5

This is the second straight road game for UC Davis after opening the season at Northern Colorado. UC Davis has had a good run the last two years, but is rebuilding after losing key players. They have one starter returning and underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a winning campaign, but have one or fewer starters back, are 10-33 ATS in the first five games of the new season. Pacific plays its home opener after an impressive performance, losing at Stanford of the Pac-12, 89-80, as a +18-point dog. They clawed to within five points with two minutes left to play. The Pacific Tigers have won five of the last six contests with UC Davis, and are 82-12 all-time against them, and this is a great situational spot for the home team.

Dr Bob

NORTHWESTERN (-4½) over Creighton

Creighton’s performance level declines significantly last season after senior PG Maurice Watson Jr. and his incredible 8.5 assists per game was log for the season after 19 games. Watson is gone and last year’s super-freshman C Justin Patton is now in the NBA as the 16h overall pick in this year’s draft. Creighton played well in their first two games this season but the Bluejays aren’t likely to be as good and Northwestern should be better this season with all their key players back from last year’s 24-12 squad that lost by just 6 points to national finalist Gonzaga in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament.

Northwestern hasn’t looked so good thus far in beating Loyola-Maryland and St. Peter’s by an average of just 8.5 points but a lot of that is due to negative 3-point shooting variance (29.7% to 41.9% allowed). My ratings favor Northwestern by 5 points and Creighton applies to a negative 55-120-7 ATS road underdog letdown situation that is based on their high-scoring win over Alcorn State (109 points scored). I’ll lean with Northwestern at -5 points or less based on that situation.

Rob Vinciletti

Indiana at Seton Hall
Play: Seton Hall -11

Seton hall has four starters from last season and they look ready for for a big season. They were picked to finish second behind Villanova in the Big East preseason poll. They won over 20 last year and could easily top that this year. They are averaging over 80 through the first 2 games hand have a plethora of scoring this year and have covered 7 of the last 9. They are bigger than Indiana and should control the glass. The Hoosiers lost big at home to Indiana St as a double digit favorite and struggled with Howard U. last out. They lost 3 of their top 4 scorers from last season and it has showed thus far. Now they take to the road where they have failed to cover 7 of the last 9. The Hall has covered the last 2 as a home favorite in this range. Look for them to roll tonight.

Buster Sports

Calgary vs. Detroit
Play: Detroit -105

The Calgary Flames go to Detroit to play the Red Wings in the brand-new Little Caesars Arena. The Flames are off a seven-game homestand where they went 5-2. One of those wins was against this same Detroit club. That game was six days ago and the Red Wings lost 6-3 that night but we believe the tables will he turned tonight in the Motor City. Calgary is now starting a six-game road trip after playing late Monday night. The Red Wings lost their first game back at home from a four-game Western road trip and now have had four days to rest and we believe this game sets up nicely for the Red Wings to take their revenge against the Flames, following last week’s loss. At the time of this writing we are laying very little juice at 105 and we will have no problem doing it.