Free Picks and Premium for Wednesday, November 16th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
BALL STATE AT TOLEDO
PLAY: BALL STATE +21
Toledo is a heavy favorite to defeat Ball State in Wednesday MACtion. It’s obviously not a scintillating matchup on paper as the Rockets are the significantly superior team.
But this is also one of those games where there’s an underlying factor that could at least impact the spread result. Toledo still has designs on getting to the MAC title game. The Rockets need to win here and then find a way to register the upset next Friday night when they visit powerful Western Michigan.
The margin doesn’t mean a thing, and the only task tonight for the home team is to simply avoid getting upset. I wouldn’t blame anyone on the Toledo roster for being a bit compacent tonight against the lowly Cardinals. That qualifies this game as a look ahead spot for Toledo, and covering a gigantic spread might not be easy under these conditions.
Ball State has been its own worst enemy en route to a meager 1-5 MAC record. The Cardinals have a terrible -10 net turnover stat over their last five games, and they’re simply not close to being good enough to overcome that kind of handicap. That’s my biggest concern here. If Ball State goes into Santa Claus mode again, they’re probably going to get crushed.
Nevertheless, it’s a spot where I’ve got an opportunity to take roughly three touchdowns against a team that basically just wants to get off the field with a win in which they stay healthy. I believe under these conditions, the number is probably a little too high, so I’m taking the plunge with Ball State and the big points.
Scott Spreitzer
UC Riverside vs. UNLV
Play: UC Riverside +7
We played against UNLV on Friday and cashed easily when South Alabama beat the Rebels outright as a 6 to 8 point underdog. We mentioned the program lost its top seven scorers from last year's roster. New coach Marvin Menzies himself, wasn't one of the program's top three choices to take over the coaching reigns. But when Chris Beard left for Texas Tech just one week after accepting the coaching job in Las Vegas, the Rebels' administration was left scrambling. How inexperienced are these Rebels? Well, last December, UNLV beat UCR 73-62. Only two players who saw time for UNLV in that meeting are still on the roster. Gone are 69 of the 73 points scored in that game, including 29 of 35 rebounds, and 10 of 11 assists. One of those two players, Dwayne Morgan, may not play in this game due to injury. UNLV had a horrible shooting night against South Alabama in their opener. But they did have a big advantage at the FT line, making 24 of 34 FTs, compared to 4 of 9 by USA, yet still lost the game. And while the Jags finished with 19 assists and 9 turnovers, UNLV committed 16 turnovers with just 12 assists. UCR is off to a 1-1 start, but they're taking care of the "rock," cleaning the glass, and will now look to drive the paint, a bit of a change from last year's perimeter-happy approach. UCR enters on a 5-1-1 ATS run off a SU win, while the Rebels have dropped six straight ATS.
Matt Josephs
Idaho vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Idaho +7
The Vandals hit the road after an opening win against a school called Corban. The Vandals have a very good backcourt led by Victor Sanders and Perrion Callandret. They are 20-12 ATS the last three years as an underdog and 19-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. Northern Illinois has two wins over Roosevelt and Indiana State whom they edged by two points to open up the season. The Huskies have dominated this series as of late winning the last two games, but I like the road team to keep things close. It's the start of a road trip so I'm not worried too much about them being tired.
Bob Harvey
Grizzlies vs. Clippers
Play: Under 201½
The league leading Los Angeles Clippers try for their 8th win in a row as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve won five of the past six meetings against the Grizzlies, including a 99-88 decision in Memphis on November 4.
Los Angeles (10-1, 9-2 ATS) has been simply dominant at home where they’ve won three straight by more than 30 points. They demolished Brooklyn on Monday 127-95 but despite the offensive outburst, the Clips’ have been successful thanks in large part to the NBA’s #1 defense LA is allowing a paltry 92.2 points per game overall and just 85.8 ppg at home.
Paul had 21 points, nine assists and five steals in the blowout of Brooklyn and has had six thefts on two occasions, including once against the Grizzlies.
Memphis (5-5, 4-6 ATS) is playing the third game of a four-game road trek and is coming off a 102-96 victory against the Utah Jazz. They’ve been a nightmare against the number going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. However the Grizzlies have enjoyed the lights of LA going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Clippers are 5-1 SU and ATS at home while Memphis is 1-3 SU and ATS as a visitor.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings at Staples Center and 6-1-1 to the low side in the past eight meetings overall.
Jim Feist
Grizzlies at Clippers
Pick: Under
Memphis plays strong defense, 24-10 under the total against the NBA Pacific division, plus 16-7 under away against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. LA can play any style and is 20-6 under the total at home. The Under is 34-15-2 in Clippers last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And when these teams clash the under is 6-1-1, including 4-0 under in this building.
David Banks
Golden State @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto +5.5
It’s an early season showdown as two of the best in the NBA square off at the Air Canada Centre on Wednesday night. The 8-2 Warriors led by Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, and Klay Thompson. Durant and Curry both average just over 27 points per game as Golden State leads the NBA in scoring. The Raptors, who have lost just twice this season, lost both times in low-scoring games to Sacramento and Cleveland.
Toronto guard DeMar DeRozan leads the NBA in scoring averaging 34 points a game. Point guard Kyle Lowry is just as crucial to the Raptors offense adding 17.3 points, 6.8 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game. Seven-foot center Jonas Valanciunas has recovered from the injuries that plagued him in last year’s postseason and his 13.4 points per game and 10.1 rebounds a game are another reason why Toronto has the second-best record in the Eastern Conference.
Wednesday’s game could turn into an up-tempo free-for- all featuring three of the league’s best scorers. Durant has made Golden State nearly unstoppable on offense. The Warriors just have too many weapons. Add in forward Draymond Green (11 ppg, 10.1 rpg, and 7.1 apg) and the Warriors lineup may be the best in the league.
Greg Smith
Ball St. at Toledo
Play: Over 66
Neither team is good at stopping teams this year. Ball state will have troubles with running attack and double threat QB and Toledo will not have the pass defense to match what Ball State can do. This is a rare play for me because I normally focus on spreads, but this is too much too pass up.
Wundeerdog
UMass-Lowell @ Indiana
Pick: Under 173.5
This will be a tough task for the UMass-Lowell offense. They lost to UMass in the opener shooting 37.3%, and just 5-of-24 from long range. At least they played some defense, holding a better UMass team to 42% shooting, 5-of-25 from area-code three. UMass-Lowell then played even better defense the next game, holding Wagner to 36.1 percent shooting in its first victory. Indiana is a strong defensive team off an overtime win over Kansas, holding the Jayhawks to 43.7% shooting. Indiana won despite missing 10 free throws. Look for the small visitors to try and slow things down with more defense than oddsmakers expect.
Ken Thomson
Jacksonville St. +12.5
Western Kentucky is a much better team with better recruits. New Jacksonville State Head Coach Ray Harper knows the lay of the land for this road game as he was the head honcho for the Hilltoppers for 9 years, five of them as Head Coach where he finished with an overall ( 90-62 ) record.
WKU made it to the Big Dance twice and won a couple of First Round Tournament games in back to back years under Harper's tutelage. Harper was a heck of a coach at D-II Kentucky Wesleyan where he won two National Titles in 1999 and 2001.
In this match-up the Gamecocks don't have the talent of WKU but they will give a solid effort for their new coach as he goes back to his old stomping grounds!
Vegas Butcher
CLE @ IND +4.5
What a game yesterday between the Cavs and the Raptors. James played 38 minutes and Love/Irving 35 minutes each. Now on a b2b+3in4 spot and having to travel, this is a difficult fatigue spot for Cleveland. Pacers have been at home for 4 days and I’m sure will want to make a ‘statement’ here and get their season back on track. I’d expect a really hard effort from them as this is a ‘let-down’ spot for the Champs. Lean: IND +4.5
NO @ ORL (no line)
Not sure why there’s no line as I don’t see any major injuries here. Orlando will probably be a favorite of a few points at home in this matchup. Pelicans are coming off their first win at home against the Celtics (no Horford though). The Magic are off a bad loss @ IND, where they only scored 69 points. They were on a b2b/3in4 in that spot and coming off a win @ OKC the night before, so a let-down was anticipated. In any case, when you have a bad team (NO) coming off a fairly big win (BOS is expected to be a top-4 team in the East), a let-down is typically expected in a following game. I also don’t see them attempting 36 FT’s on the road. Magic has size and can throw a multitude of defenders at Davis – Ibaka, Gordon, Biyombo. If Davis has a merely ‘mortal’ outing then Pelicans’ chances of winning is virtually nil. Lean: ORL
WAS @ PHI (no line)
Washington has a game tomorrow and since the bookmakers aren’t sure if Wall will play in b2b’s, there’s no line yet. It’d make sense to sit him out today and then have him start vs the Knicks at home tomorrow. We shall see. Wizards should be around -4/-5 on the road here. PASS for now
MIL @ ATL -8
Pretty disappointing effort from the Hawks yesterday against an inferior and undermanned Miami squad. Now the Hawks are on a b2b here, and might be without Howard tonight (got banged up yesterday). The Bucks are playing only their 3rd game in the last 10 days, so they should be plenty rested here. This team is 4-2 ATS in the last 6, with one of the losses being a tough b2b/3in4 spot. I expect another solid effort tonight. Lean: MIL +8
DAL @ BOS (no line)
Not sure if Horford will play yet while Nowitzki/Williams are questionable for the Mavs. PASS for now
DET @ NYK (no line)
Drummond missed Monday’s game and is questionable for tonight so that’s the reason for no line yet. The Pistons played well without him and beat OKC, but in the long-term this team is much worse without him (and without Reggie Jackson of course). PASS for now
GSW @ TOR +5.5
What an effort from the Raptors last night at Cleveland with Lowry (40 mins) and DeRozan (34 mins) playing decent minutes. They’re now on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 6 nights with a lot of travel in between. They’ll be taking on a rested Warriors squad that had 2 full days off. Can the Raptors dig deep and replicate the effort from yesterday? They could, but it’s a long season, and this being a regular season game, that kind of effort is unlikely. Lean: GSW -5.5
HOU @ OKC -1.5
The Thunder are a 4-game losing streak, losing to teams like ORL and DET during it. Three of those games were at home so that’s disturbing. Still, what kind of effort can we expect from a Westbrook-led team to try and break this losing streak? Houston has won 3 of the last 4 with the only loss being a close one against the Spurs, after beating them on the road in a previous meeting. Still, without Beverly (he’s targeting Thursday), it’s hard to see how this team can slow down Westbrook. I think we’ll see a huge effort from OKC tonight. Lean: OKC -1.5
PHX @ DEN -4.5
Suns are 7-2 ATS as an underdog while Denver is 0-3 ATS at home. Denver will be without Harris, one of their starters, for about 4 weeks. This one feels like way too many points. Both teams are bad but when that’s the case, you typically grab the points. Lean: PHX +4.5
SAS @ SAC +6
Spurs are 5-0 ATS on the road, but streaks are meant to be broken. Still, hard to fade a team like that against the Kings. Sacramento did have 4 full days off which is an eternity in the NBA. They’re 3-1 ATS in the last 4 games, facing some solid teams in TOR, LAL, and POR in the process. I think with enough effort they could keep this one close, though it’s hard to fade the Spurs. Lean: SAS -6
MEM @ LAC -12
Clippers are on a 7-game winning streak going 6-1 ATS in the process. Streaks are bound to end though, especially long ones as it’s really hard to maintain this kind of level of effort. Memphis played LA tough in the first meeting, losing by 11 at home. Still, this is a mediocre team and I wouldn’t get in front of this LA train right now. Lean: LAC -12
Teddy Davis
Bucks vs. Hawks
Play: Bucks +7
This is a very good spot here to back the Bucks on the road at the Hawks. The Hawks are off to a great start with a 8-2 record which is creating the value here with the Bucks. This Bucks team had a rough start to the season but are sitting fine themselves with a 5-4 record. They also come into this game very well rested so you can expect a maximum effort here. They have had 3 days while the Hawks are playing their 2nd of a back to back. Dwight Howard is also banged up right now and is questionable and they might save him for their big road trip coming up after this game.
Brandon Lee
Suns vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 220.5
Don't let this big total scare you away from the obvious play here. All signs point to this game eclipsing 220 points. Phoenix ranks No. 1 in the NBA in pace and Denver is No. 6. With both teams coming in off 2 days of rest, the tempo here is going to be frantic. On top of that, we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Suns are giving up 115.3 ppg at home and the Nuggets are allowing 119.3 ppg on the road. Phoenix has played 8 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in pace and all but one has seen more than 220 points.
Matt Josephs
Idaho vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Idaho +7
The Vandals hit the road after an opening win against a school called Corban. The Vandals have a very good backcourt led by Victor Sanders and Perrion Callandret. They are 20-12 ATS the last three years as an underdog and 19-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. Northern Illinois has two wins over Roosevelt and Indiana State whom they edged by two points to open up the season. The Huskies have dominated this series as of late winning the last two games, but I like the road team to keep things close. It's the start of a road trip so I'm not worried too much about them being tired.
Jimmy Boyd
Pistons +3½
There's a chance Detroit could be without starting center Andre Drummond for a second straight game, but with or without him I don't think the Pistons should be a dog here against the Knicks. Keep in mind backup big man Aron Baynes started for Drummond in Detroit's last game and scored 20 points with 8 rebounds in 34 minutes in a 104-88 win at home over OKC and their talented frontcourt.
New York comes in off a 93-77 win at home against the Mavericks, which I feel is playing into this line. However, Dallas is one of the worst teams in the league, so beating them at home by 16 isn't anything to get excited about. Their only other wins this season are against the Nets, Grizzlies and at Chicago. The win on the road over the Bulls looks good, but that was more of them wanting it more than Chicago, as Rose and Noah were playing their first game against their old team.
One of the reasons the Knicks are such a poor team despite all the big names, is they don't play any defense. New York is dead last in defensive efficiency, giving up 107.5 points per 100 possessions. The Pistons on the other hand are 3rd in defensive efficiency at 99.2. I'll gladly take the more talented and better defensive team getting points.