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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

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Jack Jones

Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost four straight games coming in following a 6-1 start to the season. They will be laying it all on the line to put an end to this four-game skid at home here Wednesday.

I believe this recent skid has the Thunder undervalued here as only 2-point home favorites when they should be laying 5-6. The Houston Rockets come in overvalued after winning three of their last four, including a 115-88 blowout victory over Philadelphia last time out on Monday.

Home-court advantage was huge last season when these teams got together. The home team went a perfect 4-0 in last season's four meetings. The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings overall as well.

Houston is 7-21 ATS after having won four or five of its past six games over the last two seasons. Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 3:08 pm
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Dave Price

Knicks -1.5

The New York Knicks talked about improving on defense, and they delivered with their best effort last time out in a 93-77 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. Now they play a Detroit Pistons team that is likely to be without Andre Drummond, who is listed as doubtful. And while the Pistons have been awesome at home, they have been atrocious on the road, going 1-5 while getting outscored by 10.7 points per game. The Knicks are 3-2 at home and winning by 2.6 points per game. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Pistons are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 trips to New York. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 3:09 pm
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Scott Rickenbach

Coyotes vs. Flames
Play: Coyotes +120

The Coyotes are expected to have #1 goalie Mike Smith back for tonight's game and Arizona also expects the return of centerman Martin Hanzal which will combine to give this club a nice boost. Also, the Coyotes have been off since Saturday whereas they catch the Flames in the 2nd night of a back to back and travel was involved too. Calgary was in Minnesota last night where they snuck out a 1-0 win over the wild but the winning goal was scored by Johnny Gaudreau who is now expected to miss tonight's game after getting hurt late in last night's game. This is a revenge game for the Coyotes as they lost at home to the Flames in late March. Prior to that defeat Arizona had beaten Calgary in 4 straight meetings! The situation (based on injuries and rest advantages) is perfect for the Coyotes to resume their winning ways against the Flames tonight. Calgary has been held to one goal or less in 6 of their last 8 games as their offensive production continues to leave a lot to be desired! Look for hungry (and rejuvenated) Arizona to make it 5-1 their last 6 against the Flames while dropping Calgary to 1-6 this season in their games against divisional opponents.

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 3:09 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

Arizona +129 over CALGARY

OT included. Give the Flames credit for willing their way to a 1-0 victory in Minnesota last night but it’s still not enough to warrant getting behind them. The Flames were a completely desperate bunch last night after four straight losses and just five wins in 16 games. They held on for dear life but when a team plays that hard on a Tuesday night in November and wins by scoring just one goal, it is a warning sign of more misery to come. Calgary has scored two goals or less in seven of its past eight and one goal or less an incredible six times over their past eight games. One of the main reasons the Flames won last night was because Chad Johnson was in net. That leaves Brian Elliott and his shaken confidence manning the nets tonight under heavy media and fan scrutiny. Calgary is a much better play on the road taking back a tag than they are at home spotting one.

The Arizona Coyotes are the NHL’s forgotten team. They are making zero noise this year with five wins in 14 games and aside from that, they usually start at an odd time anyway, that being when the early games are near the end and the late games haven’t started yet. Market perception will now have influence on how we proceed here. Arizona is not off to a good start but in its defense, they have been bit by some early key injuries and an adjustment period to new personnel. All the signs are pointing in the right direction now.

Arizona is healthy with Michael Stone back. Stone joins Alex Golikoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Luke Schenn, Connor Murphy and two fine looking rookies in Jakob Chychrn and Anthony DeAngelo to form a defensive group that many other GM’s would trade their entire defense for in a heartbeat. The ‘Yotes have allowed 29 shots on net or less in three straight. They have won three of their last six games, including victories over San Jose and Nashville. 14 games in and the Coyotes are starting to look and play like the hard-working and determined team they were a year ago. This is a better team than last year that is well-coached, loaded up on defense and that should provide us with plenty of opportunities to cash. This is one of them.

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 3:10 pm
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Dave Essler

San Francisco +7

I like this one to stay under, FWIW - another "we lost last year" type of game and the Dons' defense can create havoc - they created 25 turnovers against UIC, a team that many sharp people thought would win that game. For years the Dons' have had more talent than wins - now new coach Kyle Smith comes out from Columbia where they are (were) known for their defense and offensive efficiency. They just didn't beat themselves, which the old Dons' under RexWalters did - usually by just not playing defense with a bunch of very talented kids that played street-ball. Now, Santa Barbara does NOT know what this new team looks like - so I'd also like a 1H bet here. The Dons' Ronnie Boyce is probably the best PG nobody has ever heard of. USCB let Nebraska-Omaha shoot 62% - I have no idea how the won that game. They put Neb-O on the line 12 more times and only shot 22% from deep. If they do that here the Dons' won't need the points - perhaps a little on the ML for good measure.

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:19 pm
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Bruce Marshall

Toronto +6

Not ideal scheudling for Toronto, which took the Cavs to the wire last night. Thus far, however, the truly big efforts for Golden State have been few, as Warriors have been apt to pick their spots in first two weeks (such as recent home game vs. Kevin Durant's old Thunder team) as they get used to the new lineup combinations, and Durant tries to effectively divvy up shots between himself and the Splash Brothers (Klay Thompson off to a bit of a slow start). Last season, when Warriors were flying very high, they were involved in a couple of real scraps vs. Toronto. Golden State can prevail more easily if it finds a way to get the ball out of DeMar DeRozan's hands in the guard-happy, low-assist Rap offense, but that's perhaps easier said than done.

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:20 pm
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Bruce Marshall

Northwestern +7.5

While we have respect for Butler and HC Chris Holtmann, this might not be an easy game tonight vs. Northwestern. The Bulldogs are proceeding without two of their main scoring sources from last season (G Kellen Dunham and F Roosevelt Jones), with much of the scoring load now on the shoulders of returnee F Kelan Martin, especially with well-regarded GW transfer Kethan Savage sidelined by illness. Now-healthy soph F Vic Law could emerge as a force for the Wildcats, scoring 18 in the opening romp past MVSU.

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:21 pm
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Brad Wilton

Spoiler role for the Huskies of Northern Illinois as they take their 3-7 mark on the road to face the 6-4 Eagles of Eastern Michigan.

It should be noted that NIU has won 2 of their last 3, and they had a pretty good Toledo team on the ropes last week before falling by a touchdown. The Huskies have also won the last 8 in this series, going 6-2 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan stands at 6-4 and is bowl-eligible, but the Eagles have not looked all that sharp down the stretch, losing 2 of 3, and 3 of their last 5 overall.

Huskies QB Anthony Maddie was a late scratch last week against Toledo, and he is not expected to be back this year with a leg injury. Ryan Graham filled in nicely last week as he threw for over 200 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Plus he ran for nearly 100 yards.

I look for Northern Illinois to continue their last season surge, as they push the series win streak to 9 in a row.

1* NORTHERN ILLINOIS

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:22 pm
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Brett Atkins

Since Northern Illinois is down to back-up Ryan Graham at quarterback, I will look for this Huskies-Eagles battle to hold Under the posted total on Wednesday night.

Northern Illinois has played 3 straight and 5 of their last 7 Under the posted total heading into this one, while Eastern Michigan has played Unders in 6 of their last 8 games on the season.

The Huskies also bring an 11-1 Under mark over their last 12 November games into this meeting, and 5 of NIU's last 6 visits to Rynearson Stadium have held Under the posted total. Overall 3 of the last 5 between these MAC rivals have landed Low as well.

I am sure we are going to see some scoring, but I am not feeling a big numbers kind of night tonight.

Play Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan to fall just shy of the Over on Wednesday.

Under the play.

2* N.I.U.-EASTERN MICHIGAN UNDER

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:22 pm
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Eric Schroeder

Let's take a shot with the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, as I'm laying the slim chalk against the Houston Rockets, banking on Russell Westbrook to help his team snap its skid.

Since opening the campaign 6-1, the Thunder are mired in a four-game losing streak.

But considering the travel schedule, I'll give them a break, cutting them a little slack. The Thunder traveled to Detroit on the second night of a back-to-back on Monday, and were simply wore out. They will be rested for this one, and hungry to snap the skid. The Thunder's last two defeats came at the hands of the Orlando Magic and Detroit, clubs that rank in the bottom seven in the NBA in scoring, and that won't sit well.

I like OKC tonight as my free play.

1* THUNDER

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:22 pm
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Bob Valentino

The Indiana Pacers get their first test against the defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, and I'm taking the home underdogs in this one, as I think they could win this game.

There are many who believe the Pacers could challenge Cleveland in the Eastern Conference, and I'm one of them. Despite a 5-6 record, I like the momentum they bring in after a win over Orlando on Monday, when they limited the Magic to 69 points. Not bad for a Pacers team that went into that game allowing 108 points per game - fifth worst in the NBA.

The Pacers are 5-1 at home this season, and in recent years, this has been a tough place for LeBron James' teams to play. The Cavaliers beat the Pacers in Indianapolis in February last season, but James and his posse - from Cleveland or Miami - hadn't won a regular-season game in Indiana since February 2012 before that.

The Cavaliers are playing on the second night of a back-to-back after knocking off the Toronto Raptors 121-117 on Tuesday. They arrive with the best record in the Eastern Conference (9-1), but don't expect the Pacers to be intimidated.

Take the home pup.

2* PACERS

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:23 pm
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Chris Jordan

My free play is on the home underdog Philadelphia 76ers, against the struggling and ailing Washington Wizards, who are 2-7 and in last place in the NBA's Southeast Division. And while I know the 76ers (1-9) aren't doing much better, I personally think the Wizards will be looking ahead to the Knicks on Thursday.

The Wizards are in after dropping a 106-95 decision to Chicago on Saturday night, and not too long after the game, starting center Marcin Gortat told reporters the Wizards have "one of the worst benches in the league right now." Though he later apologized to his teammates, it's clear things aren't good in Washington D.C.

The Sixers, meanwhile, beat Indiana in overtime last Friday for their lone victory of the season, snapping a 44-game losing streak in games played in October and November. And though they lost 117-96 the next night in Atlanta, and were beaten 115-88 Monday night in Houston, running their road losing streak to 20, something tells me this is a good spot for them and they will challenge for the outright win.

3* SIXERS

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:23 pm
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Harry Bondi

TOLEDO -20 over Ball State

Let’s lay the big favorite here with a powerful Toledo team that doesn’t mind this role, as seen by its 5-1 ATS record in its last six chances as a double-digit favorite. The home team is also 20-12 ATS in its last 32 games overall and gets to face a Ball State team that’s once again fading as the season goes along. The Cardinals have not only failed to cover four in a row and five of their last six games, but dating back to the start of 2014, the team is a dismal 0-8 ATS in games after Week 10 of the season. Blowout!

 
Posted : November 16, 2016 6:25 pm
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