Free Picks for Wednesday, November 8th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Ben Burns
Miami at Phoenix
Play: Miami -5
The Miami Heat are having some issues and what better place to work them out than in Phoenix against the Suns, who have had more than their fair share of issues of their own. While the Suns are breathing easier after dealing away disgruntled star Eric Bledsoe, the Heat are trying to work things out with center Hassan Whiteside, who was benched a few days ago for loafing. Nice. But in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king – and Miami has more talent right now than the young and confused Suns. Don’t expect a game to remember, but the Heat should have enough for the road cover.
Larry Ness
Lakers vs. Celtics
Play: Lakers +9
The 5-5 LA Lakers are in Boston to take on the 9-2 Celtics and while I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely expect the young but hungry visiting side to keep this one competitive down the stretch.
LA comes in with momentum and confidence as well after back-to-back victories, most recently a convincing 107-102 win at home on Sunday over the Grizzlies. Brook Lopez led the charge in that one with 21 points.
So far LA averages 106.5 PPG and concedes 107.3
The C’s opened the year with two straight losses, but have since won nine straight. Boston averages 103.5 PPG and concedes 94.5.
Kyrie Irving had 35 points and seven assists in the Celtics latest victory.
I’ll point out though that LA is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when playing on two days rest (including 2-0 this season,) while Boston is interestingly just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 against the Pacific division.
A lot of new faces for both sides, but the Lakers young core is coming together with veteran big man Lopez leading the way.
I think we’re going to witness an all out war to the end in this one and will therefore recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Joe DelPopolo
Kent State vs. Western Michigan
Play: Under 47
Based on my Stat-Key Power Rating System and predictive math-model this game should go under the total. Both offenses are very poor as Kent St is #130 in ypp and WMU is #88 ypp. Don't see much offense in this one.
Jim Feist
Lakers at Celtics
Pick: Over
Boston opened its season with two losses. Since then, it's been nine straight wins. A big reason is the offseason addition of Kyrie Irving, who leads the team in scoring. AL Horford has also been a component of the Celits fine start. Boston has had one of the best defenses in the NBA, allowing just 94.5 ppg against. Contrast to the 5-5 Lakers, who are allowing a whopping 107.3 ppg this season. The Lakers have won two straight games with victories over Memphis and Brooklyn at home. Boston has covered eight of their last nine games. In fact, they have scored double digits over the line in four of their last five and seven of their last nine. LA has gone over in 11 of its 16 road games. Boston is 16-5-1 in its last 22 home games. Boston should score easily here against this bad LA defense.
Rob Vinciletti
New York at Orlando
Play: Orlando -5.5
The Magic will look to bounce back from 16 point home loss last out to Boston. Tonight they host a NY team playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and their first road game off a 5 game home stand. Road teams with no rest that were home dogs of 4 or less last night are 1-9 ats vs a team off a home dog spread loss by 7 or more points and scored 90 or more. Look for Orlando to win and cover as the winning team has covered 23 straight in the series.
Dr Bob
Toledo @ Ohio
Strong Opinion – Toledo -3
Ohio is a good team by MAC standards, as the Bobcats are about average on a national scale, but Toledo would be a good team in any league with a quarterback that is next level good in Logan Woodside, who has averaged 10 yards per attempt with 64 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions since the beginning of last season. Toledo will probably fall a little shy of their 39 points per game average against an Ohio defense that, at 0.3 yards per play worse than average, is a bit better than the average defense that the Rockets have faced this season. Toledo’s offense has been 1.3 yppl better than average this season (7.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and the absence of WR Cody Thompson has not had the impact I thought it would, as Woodside has slightly better numbers in the 4-plus games since Thompson was injured and averaged 11.2 yards per pass play last week against a good Northern Illinois defense.
Ohio should move the ball pretty well too, as their rushing attack (245 yards per game at 6.3 yard per rushing play) matches up pretty well with a Toledo defense that rates as average on a national scale overall but is below average defending the run. Ohio is 0.3 yppl better than average overall offensively but they match up well here and the Bobcats are projected to gain 390 yards at 6.2 yards per play against Toledo’s solid defense.
However, that’s not likely to be enough to beat Toledo, as the Rockets are projected to gain 499 yards at 7.1 yppl tonight. Those numbers are a bit below Toledo’s average of 526 yards per play at 7.3 yppl but are good enough for them to win this game. I considered making Toledo a Best Bet here but the situation strongly favors Ohio playing as a home underdog with momentum (3 straight wins) so I’ll just consider Toledo a Strong Opinion in this game.
Kent State @ Western Mich
Kent State has averaged only 7.3 points in their 8 games against FBS opponents this season but I have to lean with the Golden Flashes as a huge underdog here based on how horrible Western Michigan backup quarterback Reece Goddard was last week in place of injured starter Jon Wassink. Goddard has completed only 8 of 21 passes and has gained just 38 yards on 24 pass plays this season, all since taking over for Wassink late in the week 8 game against Ohio. I have to assume that Goddard will be better because it’s nearly impossible to have an FBS scholarship and be that bad, but even after assuming Goddard would be much better and that Western Michigan will continue to run the ball a lot more, which they did in last week’s win, I still get the Broncos by just 18 points against a pathetic Kent State team.
Brandon Lee
Kent State vs. Western Michigan
Play: Under 48½
The UNDER is worth a look here in Wednesday's MAC matchup that has Kent State visiting Western Michigan. For starters, we are at the point of the season where we start to see a lot more lower-scoring games, especially for these midwest teams. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to low 30’s.
While that plays a role, the bigger factor here is this Western Michigan offense is hurting right now. They lost their starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone in their win over Eastern Michigan back on Oct. 17th. True freshman Reece Goddard has taken his place and it’s not been pretty. Goddard was just 6 of 18 for 42 yards against the Chippewas last week.
They also just lost their No. 2 and No. 3 options at running back. Jarvion Franklin had to carry 26 times last week with those two in the lineup and now will be asked to provide an even bigger workload. At the same time, Kent State can set up their entire defense towards stopping Franklin. Chances are Franklin will have a big day, but all of this running is going to eat up the clock and make it that much harder for this to turn into a blowout.
As for the Golden Flashes and their offense, I think they are in for a long day against what is going to be a fired up Broncos defense on senior night. Kent State is the worst offense in the country at just 12.0 ppg. It’s even worse on the road, where they aren’t even averaging a field goal (2.4 ppg). In fact, 3 points is their season-high on the road.
The biggest concern here would be the Broncos eclipsing this total on their own, but I think it’s more than worth the risk given all the key losses they have suffered at the skill positions.
UNDER is 23-11-1 in the Golden Flashes’ last 35 conference games and 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Jimmy Boyd
New York at Orlando
Play: Under 213½
I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA showdown that has the Knicks visiting the Magic. Orlando comes in averaging 109 ppg, but the offense has hit a bump in the road here of late. In the Magic's last two games, both at home, they managed just 83 points against the Bulls and 88 against the Celtics.
While Orlando has lost their shooting touch, they have continued to play well on the defensive side of the ball, having held each of their last 4 opponents to 105 or less. I expect a big effort here from the Magic on the defensive side of the ball tonight, as they desperately want to avoid a 3-game skid before heading out west for a 5-game road trip.
The Knicks have been scoring in bunches of late, but I look for the offense to struggle here as they will be playing on no rest, as well as their 3rd game in 4 nights. Keep in mind New York had to exert a lot of energy late in that game last night against Charlotte, as they had to fight back from a 15-point deficit.
UNDER is 11-2 in the Magic's last 13 home games off a home loss and a perfect 8-0 when that home loss came by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 road games.
Mark Franco
Lakers vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -8½
The Boston Celtics are the hottest team in the NBA and will try to push their winning streak to double digits when they host the rival Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday. The Celtics dropped their first two games after watching swingman Gordon Hayward go down with a gruesome injury but put the pieces back together and ripped off wins in the next nine contests.
Monday's win snapped a string of eight straight games holding opponents under 100 points for the Celtics, who lead the NBA in scoring defense (94.5). The Lakers are not quite as sharp on the defensive end, surrendering an average of 107.3 points, but did enough on the other end of the floor to win three of their last four games. Rookie point guard Lonzo Ball is the one initiating that offense but is not having much success scoring and is shooting 29.9 percent from the floor on the season, including 6-of-30 over the last three games.
Boston could have drafted Ball with the No. 1 overall pick but instead traded down to the No. 3 spot and picked up forward Jayson Tatum, who is averaging 14.3 points on 50 percent shooting, including 52.9 percent from 3-point range. Tatum recorded 21 points on 7-of-13 shooting and added eight rebounds in Monday's win while frontcourt mate Al Horford finished an assist shy of a triple-double. Horford had to settle for his fourth double-double of the campaign and is averaging 14.6 points and 9.2 rebounds while shooting 47.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Tough spot for this young Lakers team, back Boston at home.
Jack Jones
Kent State vs. Western Michigan
Play: Kent State +21
I've made a nice chunk of change betting against Western Michigan this season. I had their UNDER 8.5 wins on their season win total, and I've faded them with success in their games against Michigan State, Akron and Central Michigan. They continue to be an overvalued commodity tonight.
The Broncos are just 3-6 ATS in their nine games this season. They just lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone prior to last week's game against Central Michigan, which they promptly lost 28-35 as 4-point home favorites. They are going with true freshman Reece Goddard the rest of the way. He went just 6-of-18 passing for 42 yards with an interception against the Chippewas.
After winning the MAC last season with a 13-0 record before losing to Wisconsin, the Broncos will find it hard to be motivated here down the stretch. They do need one more win to get bowl eligible, but that's a far cry from what they were playing for last year. And yet they're still laying three touchdowns to Kent State tonight despite their lack of motivation.
The Golden Flashes have stayed within 21 points of the opposition in three of their five MAC games this season. They get an extra day of rest and prep here after playing last Tuesday, while the Broncos played last Wednesday. So they got a chance to watch Western Michigan live the next night, which will help them be more prepared to face them tonight. They pretty much know they can stack eight in the box to stop the run because Goddard cannot beat them through the air.
Western Michigan is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in. The Broncos are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in. Plays against home favorites (W MICHIGAN) - after having lost two out of their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 75-37 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Will Rogers
Miami vs. Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix +6
The set-up: The Phoenix Suns made a coaching change after an 0-3 start which included two losses by more than 40 points. Phoenix won four of its first five after canning Earl Watson and promoting Jay Triano, but enters this home game with the Heat having dropped three in a row. The Suns returned home from a five-game road trip on Monday but fell to the Brooklyn Nets 98-92, a loss that marked the lowest-scoring game of the Jay Triano 'era.' However, Tuesday brought a trade with Milwaukee, sending disgruntled PG Eric Bledsoe to the Bucks for a package that includes veteran center Greg Monroe and a first-round pick. The Suns once traded away Goran Dragic to open up more playing time for Bledsoe, and Dragic returns to the desert on Wednesday leading a Heat squad that scored a season low in points during a 97-80 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Monday to fall to 1-2 on the six-game road trip.
Miami: Dragic is averaging 19.3 & 4.8 APG for a Heat team that is 4-6. All has not gone smoothly for Miami either, as head coach Erik Spoelstra benched Hassan Whiteside in the second half of Monday's loss after the center lost his focus on a play. "I guess he thought it was better if I didn't come back in," Whiteside told reporters. "Coach playing me 16 minutes, I guess that's what he wanted me to play. ... Last game, I played 31 minutes. I thought I played great (Sunday at the Clippers). Today, I played 16 minutes. So, I really don't know what I'm going to play (Wednesday) in Phoenix." Whiteside was just 1-of-9 from the floor when he was benched and finished with three points and six rebounds, well off his season averages of 15.2 points and 12.4 boards. And so it goes.
Phoenix: Shooting guard Devin Booker (at 21) became the fourth-youngest player in NBA history (LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony) to reach 3,000 points when he scored 18 against the Nets on Monday. "My dream my whole life was to play in the NBA," Booker told reporters. "Once I got here I realized I wanted to leave a mark, so every time I got out there I try to think back to those days when I was a little kid and wanted to be successful in this league. I'm trying to do it and get wins along with it." Booker is averaging 21.6 points on the season and is 29-of-29 from the free-throw line in the last five games. The Suns have plenty of potential with SF Warren (17.0 & 6.3), rookie SF Jackson (9.8 & 3.4), 2nd-year PG Ulis (7.5 & 3.7 APG) and PF Chriss (6.4 & 4.5). It will be interesting to see if the 6-11 Monroe can regain his mojo here in Phoenix. Monroe, was averaging 6.8 points and 5.0 rebounds in five games while dealing with a calf injury this season. However, he had averaged double-digits points in the previous six seasons, at least 15 points in the first five of those. Monroe will join a big-man crew that includes starting center Tyson Chandler (7.3 & 9.3) and reserve Alex Len.
The pick: Miami made that great second-half run last season (just missed the playoffs) but we've little semblance of that kind of play so far in the early going of the current season. The Whiteside "issue" hardly inspires confidence that things will get better any time soon nor does Miami's 2-6-2 ATS record.
Harry Bondi
EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2) over Central Michigan
Despite a 3-6 straight-up record, Eastern Michigan has covered seven of those nine games, so we’ll call for them to get the cash again tonight. The Eagles have historically been very good on the road, going a perfect 5-0 ATS this season and 13-3 ATS dating back the last three seasons. On the other hand, Central Michigan is 0-3 ATS at home this season and has averaged just 18 points per game in those games. That won’t be enough tonight against a EMU offense that is playing as well as it has all season the last three games, averaging over 30 points per game. Lay the short road chalk!
Antony Dinero
Toledo at Ohio
Play: Over 62
The Bobcats are looking to take full advantage of Thomas Woodson getting himself suspended and costing his team an opportunity to win at Miami (Ohio) last night, since winning this game affords them more cushion as they head down the stretch for tough road games against the Zips and Buffalo Bulls. Toledo is more banged up after playing a physical home game with Northern Illinois and are set to lose a shootout. Ride the over.
Bruce Marshall
Knicks at Magic
Pick: Magic
The Knicks are riding some Kristaps Porzingis-generated momentum into Amway Center tonight but they are also on the road, where they haven't played since October 29. Not sure Porzingis dominated away from MSG, and expect the Magic to bounce back to their early positive form after a couple of losses to the Bulls and Celtics.