Free Picks and Premium Wednesday, November 9th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
TIMBERWOLVES AT MAGIC
PLAY: MAGIC -2.5
Minnesota is one of the hyped teams this season in the NBA. Like many observers, I like this team’s young talent and what should be a coaching upgrade.
But for now, the transition is not going well. The Wolves have only one win and they’re just not looking very comfortable currently.
As for Orlando, the Magic are clearly nothing special. But I don’t mind playing teams off a real stinker, and that’a the case with this team. Orlando was a 32-point loser at Chicago on Monday. So at the very least, I expect a bit more effort tonight from the hosts.
I’ll play the Magic minus the small spot.
Scott Rickenbach
Ducks vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Ducks +106
This is a big revenge spot for the Ducks as they were thoroughly embarrassed in a 4-0 home loss to the Blue Jackets two weeks ago. That is one of just 3 losses that the Ducks have in their last 9 games and Anaheim has gone 3-1 since that loss to Columbus and the 3 wins have come by a combined score of 13 to 2. As for the Blue Jackets, they have also been playing well but they are off a 2-1 loss at St Louis in their most recent game. Also, they are hosting an Anaheim team that is playing with double revenge here because the Ducks also lost in their last visit to Columbus back in February. Anaheim is already 2-0 this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Ducks have won 26 of 38 when playing with 2 days of rest and they have been off since Sunday. Look for the road team to get sweet revenge in this one.
Jim Feist
Blazers at Clippers
Pick: Over
Both teams like to run with outstanding point guard play. Portland had to play last night against Phoenix, so LA will run right at them. Portland is on an 8-2 run over the total, and the Over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Over is also 19-7 when the Blazers face a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Clippers have plenty of offensive punch, while Portland is sixth in the NBA in scoring, but #25 in points allowed.
Brandon Lee
Jazz vs. Hornets
Play: Jazz +2
I think the line really says it all here, as this line is begging for you to take the Hornets as a small home favorite and the public is taking the bait. I'll look the other way here and take my chances on a red-hot Utah team that I think is going to end up being a Top 5 team in the west. There's some uncertainty if starting point guard George Hill will play, but this line suggests he will. Even if he doesn't, this is a deep Jazz team that is built to win on the road with the way they get after teams on the defensive side of the ball. Charlotte is off to a strong 5-1 start, but I think it's a bit of fools gold, as they have played a pretty soft schedule. Keep in mind their lone loss is a 98-104 home defeat to the Celtics, who is the best team they have played. They did just beat the Pacers by 22 at home, but Indiana isn't playing well to start out with the new pieces.
Ray Monohan
Bulls vs. Hawks
Play: Bulls +3
The Bulls head into Atlanta on Wednesday night and Chicago is worth a move here. Atlanta has the unfortunate task of a back to back here after going into Cleveland.
Even with the win, they had to use every ounce of energy they had to battle the best team in the NBA. As for the Bulls, they got an off day in between their win over Orlando on Monday night.
The good news for them is that they got to even rest their starters in the 4th quarter on Monday, as the win was so lopsided.
Some trends to note. Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Given the rest discrepancy, grabbing 3 points here with the Bulls is a nice move. They'll have their chance to steal this one late.
Jimmy Boyd
Bowling Green vs. Akron
Play: Akron -9½
Akron needs to win one of their final two games to become bowl eligible. Bowling Green on the other hand has little to nothing to play for at this point sitting at 1-8 overall. Keep in mind this is a Falcons team that had been to 3 straight MAC title games prior to this year, so this is uncharted territory. It's a lot harder to deal with failure when you are so use to success.
Bowling Green is also coming off a big game on the road against Northern Illinois, which I think was their last real spot to get up for a game. Those two teams have developed quite a rivalry, having faced each other in 3 straight MAC title games. Getting up for this one won’t be easy.
Not only is Akron going to be motivated to become bowl eligible, this is their final home game of 2016. That means senior night and players wanting to go out in style. Not to mention they have some serious revenge here with the Falcons, who they haven’t beat since 2006. They aren't going to care that Bowling Green is down this year. All signs point to a max effort here from Terry Bowden’s squad.
Neither of these teams are great defensively. Akron ranks 121st in the country in total defense and Bowling Green is 122nd. However, the Zips are the much better offensive team and you have to give the edge defensively to the home team. Akron comes in averaging 6.3 yards/play, while the Falcons only average 4.9 yards/play.
I look for the Zips high-powered passing attack to have a field day here. Akron’s Thomas Woodson comes in completing 61% of his attempts with 18 TD’s to just 6 INT’s. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 68% of their attempts against this Bowling Green secondary. They are also averaging a ridiculous 8.6 yards per pass attempt.
Akron should also be able to get their running game going. The Falcons are giving up 5.6 yards/carry on the road and 257 ypg. When the Zips are 3-0 this season when they rush for 145 or more yards. All 3 wins coming by at least 10 points.
Bowling Green is just 2-7 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 40 or more points. The Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to score 20 points in their last game.
Alex Smart
Senators vs. Sabres
Play: Under 5
Buffalo has gone under in 7 straight games, thanks to a offense that works best in transition and has scored more than 3 goals once in 12 games this season and a defense that has allowed 2 goals or less in 7 games. Meanwhile, Ottawa has gone under in 5 straight games, thanks to their lack of scoring and a very conservative defensive mindset. The Senators have scored 2 goals or less in 6 straight games, and in 8 of their 11 games this season and their D, has 3 shutouts in their L/6 tilts. these teams have gone under in 7 of their L/9 meetings and I expect another matchup the fails to top the number this Wednesday night.
Teddy Covers
Philadelphia at Indiana
Philadelphia +11½
Teddy delivered back-2-back perfect sweeps over the past two days, cashing in with the Hawks outright upset over the Cavs last night. Ride the hot hand & go for the 2-0 NBA sweep again tonight!
Indiana has no business as double digit chalk right now, even against the worst team in the NBA. Don’t take my word for it – let Paul George tell you himself: “We’re all out of whack. There’s no trust, there’s no chemistry, there’s no belief. We’re kind of just lifeless right now.”
This team bought into Frank Vogel’s message throughout his tenure as Indiana’s head coach. The first few weeks of the Nate McMillan era hasn’t produced anywhere near that same level of internal chemistry. McMillan is trying to cobble together cohesive rotations following an offseason of significant personnel turnover, with a new point guard in Jeff Teague, a new starting wing in Thaddeus Young, and a new top scorer off the bench in Al Jefferson, among others.
The betting markets recognized those names; guys with a recent track history of success elsewhere, and have been convinced that the Pacers are primed to be a team on the rise. But those big name veterans aren’t playing a lick of defense in Nate McMillan’s uptempo system. As a result, Indiana is 0-fer the season both straight up and ATS in games where they’ve scored 110 points or less. When the Pacers aren’t piling up buckets, they’re not winning games or covering pointspreads.
The Pacers have one significant weakness that has been their primary concern through the first two weeks of the season, a weakness that hasn’t shown signs of getting fixed yet. Coach McMillan is having a real problem with his guards inability to stop dribble penetration into the paint, getting to the basket of setting up teammates for easy looks at the bucket.
The Pacers rank dead last in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed, dead last in points per shot allowed and #28 out f 30 NBA teams in points allowed per possession. Jeff Teague and Monte Ellis aren’t staying in front of anybody, and Myles Turner is still developing into an effective rim protector -– he’s not there yet. Teams that can’t get stops can’t lay double digits in this league – period!
I don’t want Philly at home very often – the worst team in the NBA has virtually no home court edge, yet the markets price some edge into the line. But Philly as a double digit road underdog can be an effective and attractive betting option, especially with just about every team in the league looking at the 76ers as an ‘automatic’ win; not a team they get up to play for.
The Sixers have alternated competitive losses with non-competitive losses in their first six games, showing signs of progress following each of their first few ugly defeats. They’re coming off a dismal 25 point home loss to the defensively excellent Utah Jazz. A big step down in defensive class should produce a positive ATS result for us tonight.
Jack Jones
Blazers vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -9½
The Los Angeles Clippers have been the most impressive team in the NBA this season. They lead the NBA in scoring defense, giving up just 89.4 points per game while putting up 104.3 points per game. That's a plus-14.9 point differential, the best mark in the NBA.
The Clippers have not forgotten their loss to the Blazers last year after both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were lost for the series due to injury. They won a chippy 114-106 road game at Portland earlier this season, and now I fully expect them to blow out the Blazers at home here.
This is a very tough spot for the Blazers. They are coming off a draining 124-121 home win over the Phoenix Suns last night. Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. I think they will run out of gas tonight, allowing the Clippers to win by double-digits.
The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win. The Clippers have won four of their last five home meetings with the Blazers with their only loss coming in the playoffs without Paul and Griffin. They have won three of those by 15 points or more.
Mike Lundin
Hornets -125
I'm really impressed with how this Hornets team is playing. They combine a rock solid D ranked 5th in the NBA with a more than capable offense. Eight players finished in double digits when they defeated the Pacers their last time out so it's not just about shutting down one player. The Hornets have averaged just 11.3 turnovers per game while forcing an average of 15.0 for one of the best differentials in the league.
The Jazz should never be underestimated as their 2nd ranked D just about always gives them a chance to steal the games late. They're just 24th in the league for scoring though, and after opening a five-game road swing with back-to-back wins at New York and Philadelphia I think this looks like a pretty tough spot for the Jazz.
The Jazz are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when visiting a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and just 6-20-3 ATS in their last 29 Wednesday games. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday night games and I think they'll turn that into a 6-1 run tonight.
Wunderdog
Boston @ Washington
Pick: Boston Pk
Boston has talent but has been up and down with a .500 mark. Celtics big man Kelly Olynyk plans to make his season debut tonight against the Wizards. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS away against a team with a losing home record. Washington was in the bottom third of the league in defensive field goal percentage (46.2) last season and surrendered at least 112 points in four of its six games this season. The Wizards are off another loss, 114-106 at home to Houston, and are struggling on the defensive end. The Celtics defense will play well against a Washington offense that is #22 in scoring, and #23 in shooting. Boston took all four meetings last season by an average of 20 points (4-0 ATS).
Kevin Rogers
Houston at San Antonio
Play: Houston
The Rockets wrap up their five-game road swing tonight in San Antonio, as Houston is going for consecutive wins for the second time this season. The Spurs were embarrassed by the Clippers on Saturday, as San Antonio has lost each of its last two home games by double-digits. San Antonio has won four straight home meetings with Houston, but the offense has scored 98 points or less in all three home games this season. I'll take the points with the Rockets.
Chris Jordan
Let's head to the Big Apple for my free play tonight, as I like the New York Knicks over the Brooklyn Nets in a battle of Manhattan neighbors.
Brooklyn comes in after knocking off the Minnesota Timberwolves, 119-100, last night. But the Nets have still lost three of their last five games.
Now they're going to struggle in the opening of a five-game road trip that heads to the west coast after this game, for games in Phoenix, Los Angeles and Oklahoma City.
The Knicks, meanhile, have also struggled, losing three of their last four. But that 117-104 win in Chicago is what impressed me and I think they'll be able to put it on the Nets tonight.
Lay the home number.
4* KNICKS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Charlotte Hornets, as I think this number is far too low against the Utah Jazz. The Hornets are in after an impressive 22-point win over the Indiana Pacers a couple nights back and have won three straight.
The Hornets' win streak has come by way of an average margin of 14 points per victory. Charlotte is 5-1 after the first couple of weeks, with three of those wins on the road.
Back at home, and rested, the Hornets will take full advantage of a Jazz team that will be playing its third road game in four days. The Hornets won in New York and Philly on Sunday and Monday, respectively, and now take on one of the hottest teams in the league before heading to Florida for games in Orlando and Miami.
All Charlotte in this one.
4* CHARLOTTE