Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, October 12th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Rob Vinciletti
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Play: Senators -140
The Senators open at home tonight against a Toronto team they have beat the last 4 here at home and 4 of the last 5 overall. The Maple leafs have lost 42 of 60 in Division play., including 16 of 19 on the road and 42 of 55 on the road when the total is 5.5. Toronto ranked 29th in road scoring last season.The Senators have won 6 of 7 at home vs Toronto at home in October since 199 and have more talent. Look for Ottawa to win their home opener tonight.
Mike Lundin
Los Angeles at San Jose
Play: San Jose -116
The San Jose Sharks will take on the Los Angeles Kings home in the Shark Tank as they open up the 2016-17 NHL season Wednesday night. The road team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, but the Sharks are 5-1 in the last six overall and dispatched the Kings in five games in the opening round of the playoffs last year.
The Kings will have to do without Marian Gaborik who is sidelined with a broken foot sustained during the World Cup of Hockey, and Milan Lucic left the team via free agency during the summer. San Jose meanwhile has picked up several interesting young players in the off-season and the roster has a strong look to it.
Former Kings netminder Martin Jones was 37-23-4, six shutouts and a 2.27 GAA with the Sharks last year, and that included a 3-1-1 mark against the Kings. I look for him to lead the Sharks to a win tonight.
Jim Feist
Kings at Sharks
Pick: Under
A pair of strong defenses clash in an opening night division rivalry contest. LA has one of the best goalies in the game and San Jose has great defensive depth, off a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. San Jose is on a 6-1-1 run under the total playing with two or more days rest.
Wunderdog
Toronto vs. Ottawa
Pick: Toronto +127
Rebuilding Toronto opens the season on the road as Coach Mike Babcock continues to add talented high draft picks. Top overall pick Auston Matthews joins former first-round picks Mitchell Marner (2015 draft) and William Nylander (2014 draft). The Leafs upgraded the goaltending with Frederik Andersen aboard, after posting a 22-9-7 mark with a 2.30 goals-against average in 43 games last season with Anaheim. They head to Ottawa, a team favored despite having no defense last season, fifth most in goals allowed (2.94 per game). Ottawa also has a new coach - its seventh in nine years. The team was outscored in preseason and last year the defense allowed a league-high 32.8 shots per game while the special teams play (#26th on the power play, #29 in penalty kill) was poor. Ottawa was plagued by slow starts in 2015-16, surrendering the first goal in 51 of 82 games, and doesn't match up well with this young, fast Toronto squad that is well coached.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +123 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators have one of the best lines in the NHL in Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Mark Stone. They also have the best offensive defenseman in the game as well. The Sens also made what has to be considered a decent swap when they picked up the hard working and talented Derick Brassard for the talented but not so much hard-working Mika Zibanejad. Other than that, this is the same Ottawa squad as last year. A year older perhaps but it’s the same team that was a puck possession mess, that gave the puck away far too often and that was unable to protect leads. They are a top-heavy team with a weak defense so anytime they’re favored, at least in the early going, we are happy to fade them.
Mike Babcock and the rest of the Maple Leafs brass is calling this year two of the rebuild. We’re not entirely convinced of that. We’re convinced the rebuild is over especially after drafting first overall this past summer.
Toronto ranked dead last in several luck-driven stats last year. They lost a lot of one-goal games, had a 7.6 shooting percentage as a team, and also had the worst PDO in the league (a metric that combines save and shooting percentages to serve as a proxy for puck luck). Some of their bad luck metrics was due to injuries, but for the most part, the Leafs were on the wrong end of fortune last year. We took a look at every team since 2010 that finished between 48.5-51.5 in score-adjusted Corsi for percentage -- a range where Toronto fell last season -- and finished in the bottom five in the standings, and looked at where they ended up in the following season. For these teams that were middle of the road in terms of puck control and scoring chances, they ended up finishing middle of the road in the standings the following season, jumping on average nine spots in the standings. Toronto is notably unique as being a team that finished dead last while still having a score-adjusted Corsi of more than 50 percent. A big improvement this year is inevitable. ‘
From the point that the Leafs traded Phil Kessel two summers ago, this has been an organization going all-in on young talent; accordingly, their roster is bursting at the seams with youth and talent. The Leafs' farm team last season, the Toronto Marlies, was among the most exciting and well-run AHL teams ever seen. The amount of resources the Leafs put into their AHL team by choice (and because they're one of the few organizations who can afford to do so) was greater than most of the league by a wide margin. William Nylander would have been a top candidate for the AHL MVP if he had played a full season, and they had other quality prospects who impressed, such as Kasperi Kapanen, Brendan Leipsic and Connor Brown, among others. Mitch Marner was the Ontario Hockey League MVP of the regular season and he earned the same recognition for the OHL postseason. Other players like Jeremy Bracco, Dmytro Timashov, Andrew Nielsen and Martins Dzierkals were among the Canadian Hockey League's top scorers, while Travis Demott was one of the best defensemen in the OHL. The point is, many of those aforementioned players will be playing for the big club this season and in order to make it, they all had to beat out several other very talented players.
The people running the organization are top of the line at every part of the front office. Their talent outside the NHL ranks is an embarrassment of riches. Give guys like Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner, Leo Komarov and Morgan Rielly all that young talent to play with and they are set up to thrive. We also love the addition of Matt Martin, a former fan favorite for the Islanders because of his work ethic and grit.
Despite having the worst record in the NHL a year ago, Toronto was a tough out nearly every single night. They have upgraded in goal, they are still likely to be a strong possession team and no team is going to work harder or have a greater desire to win. There will be some growing pains for sure but Toronto has built a foundation to not only end the rebuild, but possibly end the use of that term among Leafs' fans for a lengthy period of time. The rebuild is over and we are all going to get the first taste of that tonight. The window to buy low on the Maple Leafs will not be open for long. Get in while you can.
Calgary +104 over EDMONTON
OT included. It seems every year that it is going to be “the year” the Oilers turn it around. Edmonton made some major moves this summer but GM Peter Chiarelli has come under fire for trading the very popular Taylor Hall to New Jersey for defenseman Adam Larsson. While Larsson is a nice piece, he's only one man and one man alone cannot solve the Oilers defensive struggles. The Oilers were fifth in shots allowed last season, giving up over 31 per game. Edmonton does have some world class players but they do not have the depth needed to be successful night in and night out. The Oilers are trying desperately to overcome their culture of losing and while they are on the right track, they will not make major progress without stabilizing their defense. Being value bettors, the Oilers will offer up some when they are taking back a tag but until they show us something else, we are early sellers on this outfit when they’re favored. That's the case tonight, as the Oil get ready to open their brand new arena against their provincial rivals.
The Calgary Flames had the worst goaltenders in the league last season and it was not close. When you roll out the likes of Kari Ramo, Jonas Hiller, Joni Ortio and Nik Backstrom, it totally messes with the mindset of everyone on that bench. Flames General Manager Brad Treliving made sure he put his stamp on this team over the summer by firing Coach Bob Hartley and replacing him with Glen Gulutzan. Next, Treliving made a splash at the draft when he traded for workhorse Brian Elliott to man the net and then signed the very solid Chad Johnson to fill their backup roll. After shoring up their goaltending, the Flames were tasked with signing the very popular and talented Johnny Gaudreau, who missed most of training camp but is now signed, sealed and ready to deliver the goods. The Flames have one of the best defensive units in the league. Mark Giordano is an elite defenseman that other teams only dream about. T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton and Dennis Wideman round out a very solid top-four that probably every GM in the NHL would trade their top-four defensemen for straight up in a heartbeat.
Last season, the Flames were a promising team utterly undone by wildly erratic goaltending. Soft goals are mentally deflating and when they happen all season long, it takes a toll. Goal-scoring is not a weakness of these Flames and the addition of Troy Brouwer gives them one of those priceless role players that every team needs. At the very least, Calgary’s greatly improved goaltending and defensive zone play is going to make them a difficult out almost every game. We’re early buyers on the Flames and we’ll put that to the test right off the bat.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles vs. San Jose
Pick: Los Angeles
The LA Kings (2015-16: 48-28-6, 2nd in Pacific) visit the San Jose Sharks (2015-16: 46-30-6, 3rd in Pacific) in a rematch of last year’s first round Western Conference series. The Sharks beat the Kings 4-1 in that series, jump starting a playoff run that didn’t end until San Jose lost 4-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Sharks now open the season attempting to defend their first-ever Western Conference title, while the Kings hope to spoil the home opener against the team that ended their season in last year’s opening round.
The Kings lost LW Milan Lucic (20 goals, 55 points) to free agency, RW Marian Gaborik (12 goals, 22 points) to a broken foot during the World Cup of Hockey tournament and Tanner Pearson (15 goals, 36 points) is suspended for the first two regular-season games for a preseason infraction. Center Anze Kopitar (25 goals, 74 points) will be surrounded by Dustin Brown (11 goals, 28 points) and Devin Setoguchi on the Kings’ “new-look” first line. Setoguchi is a compelling story, as he is trying to resurrect a career that got sidetracked due to substance abuse. Goaltender Jonathan Quick will again be a key to the Kings season. He has led the Kings to two Stanley Cup titles in his career (in 2012 and 2014) and comes off a season in which his 40 wins were a franchise-record (2.22 GAA / .918 save percentage).
The Sharks made two key signings on the first day of free agency, inking Arizona LW Mikkel Boedker (13 goals, 39 points) and New Jersey defenseman David Schlemko to four-year deals. Veteran center Joe Thornton (team-leading 63 assists, 82 points) and center Joe Pavelski (team-high 38 goals) are back, as is goalie Martin Jones (37-23-4 with a 2.27 GAA). The Sharks open the season with arguably the best depth in franchise history (first NHL season was back in 1991-92).
San Jose struggled at home last season (18-20-3) but in the Stanley Cup playoffs, the team went 8-4 at the Shark Tank. However, I’m buying into some “playoff revenge” here for the Kings, backing Jonathan Quick over Martin Jones.
Sean Murphy
Flames vs. Oilers
Playy: Under 5½
The Oilers will be looking to begin a new era, so to speak, at their brand new arena on Wednesday night.
This heated rivalry between the Oilers and Flames has certainly produced some high-scoring affairs in recent years but I’m not anticipating that type of contest in the season-opener.
Something of note heading into this opener is the concern over ice conditions. Oilers players have been quick to point out that the ice has been choppy, and certainly not as good as it was at Rexall Place – a rink that was known to have arguably the best ice in the league.
Both teams have been doing all they can to shore up their defense during the offseason. In fact, both teams made moves earlier this week to do just that with the Oilers adding former Flame Kris Russell and the Flames signing Nicklas Grossman.
Needless to say defense has been a sore spot, particularly for the Oilers in recent years. In today’s NHL you can score all you want but if you can’t keep the puck out of your own net, you’re not going to win many games, and you’re not going to be a playoff team.
While the Oilers will certainly be looking to put on a show as they open their new arena for real (they did play four preseason games here), a win is certainly the most important thing. Look for a strong showing from Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot on Wednesday night.
I’m higher on the Flames than some and do feel they’re in for a strong bounce-back season after making such positive strides two years ago. Look for them to do a good job of containing the Oilers young guns in this one.
Bruce Marshall
Sharks -133
After losing to the Sharks in the playoffs last April, the Kings went about many changes, and will feature a new look on their top line, the result of departures, suspensions, and injury. Meanwhile San Jose has much the same look as the team that made it all of the way to the Finals, with several new players giving the Sharks the best depth they have enjoyed in seasons.