Scott Rickenbach
10* Philadelphia / Washington Over
In a way, we’re making a play on the Phillies here but we’re doing it without having to lay a huge price on the money line or a big price on the run line. Even at -1.5 runs, the Phillies are priced around a -170 favorite. Conversely, the over 8 runs in this match-up (and we may even start to see some 7.5) is currently available at even money. That means we can make a big investment here without laying any juice and we can fully expect the Phillies to absolutely pound Jason Marquis of the Nationals. The right-hander is simply enduring the worst of times right now. The Nats Marquis has lost all five of his starts this season while compiling a 14.33 ERA and being hit at an insane .405 clip on the season. Facing Philly is unlikely to help Marquis. He faced them twice early in the season and he got pounded in both meetings. In his career, Marquis has a 5.21 ERA against the Phils. All five of Marquis’ starts have gone over the total this season and, as a team, Washington was on an 11-6-1 to the over heading into yesterday’s action. The Nationals had allowed double digits in hits in 7 of their last 9 games before closing out their series with the Braves with a 6-2 win at Atlanta yesterday. The Nats are facing a Phillies team that will be fired up after losing 5-2 to the Giants yesterday and being handcuffed by Jonathan Sanchez. Prior to that defeat, the Phillies had recorded at least 9 hits in 7 of their last 9 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Marquis and a Washington pitching staff that has combined to allow 8 runs or more in 5 of their last 10 games.
Offensively, we know that the Nationals certainly aren’t the most impressive team in the league. However, Roy Halladay of the Phillies has allowed four earned runs or more in 3 of his last 9 starts. There is no doubt he’s a fantastic pitcher but he has allowed 6 homers in his last 9 starts and we won’t be surprised to see him give up some runs here to a Washington club that has scored at least four runs in four of their last eight games. The Nats have banged out at least nine hits in four of their last eight games. The Phillies are 11-4 to the over this season when they are at home and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. That record is also an impressive 27-15 to the over the last three seasons. Philadelphia won Halladay’s last start 4-0 and, prior to that, the Phils had scored at least 6 runs in each of his last five starts! They are also likely to give him plenty of run support here as Marquis’ misery continues and the Nationals pitching staff gets bombed once again. That, coupled with the fact that the Nats score at least a few off of Halladay, has us seeing great line value here with the low total. Play OVER the total in Philadelphia as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Detroit / Cleveland Over
With their game going over the total yesterday, the Indians are now 4-1 to the over in their last five games. With another over for the Tigers yesterday as well, Detroit is now 8-4 to the over in their last 12 games. Cleveland is 6-3 to the over this season as a road dog of up to +125. They are 11-7 to the over in Friday games this season and they are also 11-7 to the over in their 18 games this month. Note that the Indians are 60-41 to the over as a road dog of up to +150 the last three seasons combined! The Tigers are 7-3 to the over as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season. Detroit also is 8-5 to the over on Fridays this season. The Tigers are 7-3 to the over in Armando Galarraga’s last ten starts. He certainly hasn’t been the same pitcher he was when he threw that one-hitter against the Indians the last time he faced them. As for Cleveland’s Justin Masterson, the Indians are 14-4-1 to the over in his last 19 starts!
Masterson has walked 13 batters in his last three starts and those outings have totaled just 16 innings of work. The right-hander has a 5.93 ERA against Detroit in his career. Masterson also has an ugly 6.68 ERA in road games this season while getting pounded at a .312 clip away from home. Though he’s coming off of a solid start, that came against the light-hitting Mariners. Prior to that outing, Masterson had been charged with at least four runs (most of those were earned runs) in seven of his last eleven starts! Galarraga also has been on quite a run in that regard. The Tigers right-hander has given up at least four runs (most of those were earned runs) in 7 of his last 11 starts! Galarraga has a 4.66 ERA against the Indians in his career. Keep in mind, that includes the one hitter he threw against them earlier this season. Prior to that, Galarraga had a 5.51 ERA against the Indians in eight career starts. The Tigers righty got roughed up by the White Sox in his most recent start and, prior to that, Galarraga had 9 walks and just two strikeouts in his two prior outings. Galarraga has given up 8 homers in his last 6 home starts. Also, it’s certainly noteworthy that Galarraga is 11-4 in day games in his career but he’s 11-18 in night games and he’s compiled a 4.96 ERA under the lights! Look for his recent struggles to continue here while Masterson quickly comes back down to reality after enjoying success against the punchless Mariners in his last start! Play OVER the total in Detroit as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Tony George
Tampa Bay -140
4 things at work here for us. First up Tampa lost in a tight low scoring yesterday in this series. Tampa is 7-3 their last 10 and rarely lose back to back. Tampas starter is 3-0 with an ERA under 1 and has not given up a run on the road this year in his only road start. He is a good right hander and Oakland is hitting righties at a paltry .192 as a team their last 10 games. Tampa has the better offense here and will have more run support opportunities, although Mazzaro is a good pitcher for the As. Funny thing is the tell tale in this one, he is 0-3 his last 3 starts with a 2.37 ERA, which means what? No run support or offense and Tampa has revenge on their mind. Play 1 Unit on Tampa Bay tonight.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Bengals
The Asian Executive
6 units Cincinnati -3
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play San Diego (+125) over Milwaukee
San Diego has won 10 of the last 11 games and they have also won 21 of the last 26 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents. Wade Leblanc has won 6 of the last 7 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he is 1-0 vs. Milwaukee over his career with an ERA of 0.00.
50* Play Cleveland (+125) over Detroit
Detroit has lost 3 consecutive games and they have also lost 25 of the last 43 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150. Armando Galarraga has lost 9 of the last 11 home games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 5.60.
50* Play Seattle (+125) over NY Yankees
Seattle pitcher, Felix Hernandez has won 5 of the last 6 games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and he has an ERA of 1.27 over his last 3 starts. New York pitcher, AJ Burnett has lost 7 of the last 9 games when pitching in the month of August and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 5.49.
Paul Leiner
100* Eagles +3
50* Phi/Wash Over 8
25* Tigers -140
King Creole
2* Eagles / Bengals Over 37.5
This one is following the OU pattern of last night's Patriots / Falcons game. And just like we said in last night's writeup:
The OU Line opened at 37 points. But get your play in ASAP... as the OU line figures to go UP on gameday!
This will be Cincinnati’s 3rd game of the 2010 pre-season. But for the Eagles, it’s actually Game #2 (Cincy gets an extra game as they start the year with a Hall-of-Fame date with the Dallas Cowboys). So with an added game under their belts, this one is the ‘tune up’ for the Bengals. And it’s the first situational System that I queried in our Playbook NFL database.
7-1 O/U since 2001: All NFL ‘X’ Game 3 HOME teams (Cincy) versus an opponent playing Game 2 (Philly).
The Bengals are also off a home game vs the Broncos.
4-0 O/U since 2000: NFL ‘X’ Game 3 teams playing in the 2nd of BB home games…if they also played in the Hall-of-Fame game (Cincy).
Speaking of previous opponents, we also note that NFL ‘X’ home teams have gone:
5-0 O/U in the last 3 years AFTER playing the Denver Broncos (Cincy).
The Bengals won by a final score of 33-24 last Sunday...
6-1 O/U in the last 5 years: All NFL 'X' teams playing off a SUATS win in which they scored 31 > points AND allowed 21 > points (Cincy).
A look at this particular Day of the Week also points us in the right direction.
7-1 O/U last 3 years: All NFL ‘X’ Game 3 teams playing on a FRIDAY (Cincy).
On the Philadelphia side, this will be the first of back-to-back road games for the Eagles.
13-1 O/U since 2001: All NFL ‘X’ Game 2 teams playing in the FIRST of BB road games (Philly).
The 2nd pre-season game has always been an important one for Andy Reid of the Eagles. For you ATS fans, we note that Philly has gone 9-1-1 ATS in Game 2 over the last 11 seasons. They have scored 20 or more points SIX times in the last 7 years. And we note that PHILLY has gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in Games 2 and 3 of the pre-season in the last 3 years.
The clincher to this Best Bet is the fact that the Bengals have gone a perfect 5-0 O/U as pre-season favorites against a NFC opponent in the last 4 years.
Teddy Covers
Eagles
Angels/Twins Under
Spokane Shock
Dave Cokin
White Sox
Tampa
Lenny Del Genio
20* White Sox
JR O'Donnell
3* Eagles / Bengals Over 37.5
The Vegas lines makers have set this line @ 37.5 for a reason as Eagles coach A Reid will play K. Kolb deep in to the first half as he wants to see some positives out of the Birds O, the Eagles coach was majorly disappointed in the Birds Red zone offense. The Bengals will be also looking to score some points as JT Sullivan and Jordan Sullivan will put up some points with the T O show in the Mix. Our Power Ratings have this baby @ 43, a full 6 points off the posted #, We also will see some defensive pressure which will result in a short field and turnovers.
Tony Stoffo
Eagles at Bengals
Pick: Over 37
Last week I told you that the Eagles sure don't play defense in the preseason, and that fact sure held true as Philadelphia played their 8th straight Over in the preseason. Kolb, Vick, and Kafka all played well passing for close to 300 yards. However the defense gave up over 300 yards thru the air themselves. On the other side with this being the Bengals 3rd game already I really feel they offense will be super sharp this weekend. They scored 26 offensive points against the Broncos and I sure can see more of the same here against this vanilla Eagles defense that they will be matched up against. Plus add in the fact that the majority of all total bets are on the under, and yet this total has already started to go up only means that the sharps are also on the Over in this spot. An offensive show is on tap for this evening making the over my highly recommended play tonight.
Teddy Covers
Spokane Shock
Should be Tampa Bay Storm not Spokane Shock
The Duke's Sports
San Diego (+135) for 2 Units
The Padres are getting great work out of their pitching during their 10-1 run: SD's rotation is 10-0 with a 1.68 ERA over that span while their bullpen has been solid (2.63 ERA). SD has dominated the NLC at 42-19 and sport an 8-3 mark in the last 11 meetings against Milwaukee. Wade LeBlanc has meshed in the strong rotation and doing his part with a 3.32 ERA over his last 3 starts. Gallardo won't be easy to hit but the Padres are playing their version of small ball well and should squeak by. Brewers are just 1-5 with Gallardo vs teams above .500, and 2-6 with Gallardo vs the NLW. SD the call.
Donnie Black
20* Oakland Under 7