Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play Philadelphia (-215) over Florida (Top Play of the Day)
Philadelphia has won 21 of the last 23 games as a favorite of -200 to -225 and they have also won 35 of the last 44 games coming off a loss. Roy Oswalt has won 21 of the last 25 home games as a favorite of -200 to -225 and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 1.80.
Play Milwaukee (-185) over Chicago Cubs (Bonus)
Play San Francisco (-225) over Houston (Bonus)
50* Play Hamilton (+3.5) over Winnipeg
Hamilton has won 4 of the last 5 games and they have also covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 road games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Ben Burns
10* Indianapolis Colts +9.5
10* Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
9* Packers / Colts Under 39.5
Today's Picks
St. Louis Rams -1.5
Detroit Tigers -125
Los Angeles Angels +105
Paul Leiner
100* Cubs / Brewers Over 8.5
50* Tigers -110
DAVID MALINSKY
4* OAKLAND / BOSTON OVER 10
Sometimes guys with erratic performance swings like Gio Gonzalez, or a knuckleballer like Tim Wakefield, might appear to be “tough reads”. But in this case it is not so difficult at all, and we see plenty of runs in Fenway tonight.
Gonzalez often needs a GPS to find the strike zone, but works around that because his stuff is difficult to hit. His worst nightmare comes when he faces a patient side that will not chase anything on the edges of the zone, and that is what happens tonight. The Yankees and Red Sox are once again #1 and #2 in the Major League’s in W rate, and against those teams he is 0-3/7.41 this season. His 2.36 home/4.50 road splits have a lot of those “control” issues built in, toiling at 4.6 W’s per 9 from opposing mounds, so even if he brings good stuff there will be high early pitch counts to wear him down. That is a major problem, because the Oakland bullpen is a mess today. Bruce Billings and Jordan Norberto are out for certain; Brian Fuentes and Fautino De Los Santos have each worked back-to-back games and are question marks, and there is no form to be found from closer Andrew Bailey, who has been scored on five times in his last seven appearances.
But the A’s will compete to win tonight because they will score – against Wakefield everyone does these days. While the veteran right-hander has given the Red Sox just what they needed, someone to go out and eat innings, there has not much movement on his knuckler lately. That shows up in terrific control numbers, with only 15 W’s over his last 11 starts, but for him that is not necessarily a good thing – he allowed at least three earned runs in every one of those 11 games, getting tagged for 83 hits in that span. And it is not as though he has been up against top-flight competition, with seven straight starts against losing teams. He will do his usual tonight, churn through some innings while not dominating at any time, and that enables the Oakland offense to bring us what we need from their side of this equation.
Bruce Marshall
Green Bay Packers -8.5
St. Louis Rams -1.5
Viking Sports
2* St Louis Rams -2.5
2* St Louis/Kansas City Under 35
Vic Monte
2000* St Louis Cardinals -160
WUNDERDOG
Yankees / Orioles
Pick: Under 10.5
It is easy to see why this total has pushed beyond the 10-run mark as the Bombers unleashed their fury at home vs. the A's yesterday with 22 runs. Good pitching is usually contagious, and the Birds have held their last four opponents to 1-run each while failing to top the total in their last five. It is easy to back the over in a Yankees game especially after what we saw yesterday. But the reality is that since April 1 of this year, the Bombers have seen a dozen games posted at 10 or higher, and have made it over those totals just three times, and Burnett has only seen one of his last eight starts vs. the Orioles top the total. Baltimore is also playing low at home to high numbers as they are now 8-3 in their last 11 with a total set from 9-10.5. The UNDER is the play.
Bruce Marshall
Green Bay Packers -8.5
St. Louis Rams -1.5
Yankees / Orioles Over 10
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Jimmy Boyd
5* Chiefs +1.5
3* Red Sox
Wunderdog
3 Units Yankees / Orioles Under 10.5
It is easy to see why this total has pushed beyond the 10-run mark as the Bombers unleashed their fury at home vs. the A's yesterday with 22 runs. Good pitching is usually contagious, and the Birds have held their last four opponents to 1-run each while failing to top the total in their last five. It is easy to back the over in a Yankees game especially after what we saw yesterday. But the reality is that since April 1 of this year, the Bombers have seen a dozen games posted at 10 or higher, and have made it over those totals just three times, and Burnett has only seen one of his last eight starts vs. the Orioles top the total. Baltimore is also playing low at home to high numbers as they are now 8-3 in their last 11 with a total set from 9-10.5. The UNDER is the play.
3 Units Rays / Blue Jays Under 8.5
The Tampa Bay Rays have had scoring problems for most of the season. Those problems continue to plague them as they have managed to score just 6 runs in their last four games, and are off a shutout in their previous game. They manage to stay in most games however, and their pitching has come up big of late, holding opponents to 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 15 games. Toronto has seen three of their last seven games end with a team not scoring a single run. In three of their last six games, the offense has failed to tally more than a single run. The Rays have been the UNDER kings behind Shields with a total set from 7-8.5 as they are now 22-6-1 to the UNDER in his last 29 starts in this total range. The Jays are now 15-7 to the UNDER in their last 22 as a dog up to +150. Back the UNDER here.
4 Units Boston -150
he Oakland A's really took one on the chin yesterday, allowing the Yankees three grand-slams and 22 runs. That has pretty much wiped out a bullpen that has been overworked to begin with. The Red Sox can win games in a lot of ways, especially at home as they have a deep, powerful lineup, and a back end of a bullpen where Bard and Papelbon await. Gio Gonzalez has allowed 25 runs in his last 35 innings - not the situation you like to see going against the best hitting team in baseball. The A's show just 23-49 in their last 72 as a road dog. Behind Gonzalez, they are a woeful 2-10 in his last 12 starts as a dog from +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 39-18 at home in Wakefield's last 57 home starts, showing value on the chalk. Boston is my play for Game of the Month.
3 Units Angels / Rangers Under 9
The Angels were left for dead after losing the first three games to Texas at home a week ago. They fought their back and now trail by just one in the loss column. Angels pitching has taken charge, as outside of a blowup in Baltimore for 8 runs, the Halo’s staff has allowed just 9 runs on their way to six straight wins. The Rangers offense is on hiatus with just 1 run scored over their last six games, producing just a tick over 2 per contest. The Angels are producing a 16-7-2 UNDER mark in their last 25 following an off day, while the Rangers’ have posted four straight UNDERs behind Holland in a start after he only lasted four innings or less in his previous trip. This series has been dominated by pitching, with just eight games topping the total in the last 29 meetings. Play this one on the UNDER.
2 Units San Diego +145
This series reminds me of the movie, "Trading Places". It is exactly what has transpired for these clubs over the last year. San Diego took a shot at the Cinderella Slipper last year, while Arizona is trying to make it fit this year. Offensively and overall, life has not been kind to the D-Backs, losers of six of their last nine, producing just 2.4 runs per game during that stretch. The Padres have mysteriously played well on the road, just a single game under .500. They have won five of their last six overall, while scoring 5.6 runs per game during the stretch. San Diego comes into this one winners of six of their last eight after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game, while the D-Backs show just 0-4 at home the first game back after a 7-game road trip or longer. Play San Diego in this one.
3 Units Seattle +120
The Chicago White Sox have slipped under the .500 mark and out of the race in the AL Central. Jake Peavy was once a dominant top-of-the-rotation pitcher for the Padres, but has seen arm trouble diminish his effectiveness, as he enters with an ERA over 5. The Mariners offense has been much better in the second half of the season, and red-hot lately with 21 runs in their last two games. Charles Furbush made his MLB debut this year, and has not fared well on the road. As is the case with most young pitchers, he has been superb at home where he has worked to a 3-1 mark backed by a prolific 1.47 ERA. Peavy's struggles have led the Pale Hose to a 2-6 mark in his last eight starts, while Seattle has run the streak at home to four straight vs. a losing team. Take Seattle in this one.
Super Sports Group
15* Royals / Indians Over 8.5
10* A's / Red Sox Over 10
8* Blue Jays +128
8* Tigers / Twins Over 9.5
8* Rangers -111
Mark Fox
SF Giants -1.5
KELSO
10 Units Packers -9
3 Units Rams -1.5