Sports Unlimited
4* Tulsa
KELSO
10 Units Tulsa
5 Unit Parlay Tulsa & Over
Ben Burns
10* Hawaii -9.5
Chris Jordan
100♦ Hawaii
True, these are two very dangerous offenslve units taking the field today, and we should be in store for a game that could very well be a shootout at times. But when it's said and done, I don't believe the Golden Hurricane have enough defensive firepower to stop Hawaii as many times has the Warriors will be able to stop Tulsa.
What happens in a lot of these games is the offenses go back and forth and neither miss a beat. That is until one defensive unit makes the right adjustment and stops the other. So in trying to figure out tonight's game, it's not about which team scores the most, it's about which defense is able to get the job done.
And make note, the Hurricane rank 84th in scoring defense at 29.9 points per game and 107th in total defense with an average of 442.6 yards allowed.
If you look at these two teams and what they've accomplished, you're going to find that Hawaii blew teams out, while Tulsa won shootoiuts. Hawaii has the balance to score points and stop other teams. Tulsa doesn't stop teams, it outscores them.
That doesn't bode well when facing a Hawaii team that is on its own turf and ranks near the top of every major offensive statisttcal category, including the ninth-best scoring team in the nation with 39.9 points per game.
Lay the points with Hawaii.
Bob Balfe
Hawaii -10
Executive
250% Hawaii -10
Dave Cokin
3* Tulsa / Hawaii Over
Don Wallace Sports
3* Tulsa +10
Wunderdog
Tulsa
Hawaii / Tulsa Under
King Creole
3* Tulsa / Hawaii Over 73.5
Each of the last two Bowl games (Las Vegas Bowl on Wed / Pointsettia Bowl on Thur) were expected to be HIGH-scoring affairs... and I imagine that there was plenty of action on the "Overs". But the REAL shootout will be this afternoon / evening in Honolulu, as the Warriors take on the Golden Hurricane. The history of this Bowl ALONE is worthy of a play on the OVER. Since the 2003 season, the HAWAII BOWL has averaged 81.0 points per game. And when the WARRIORS are involved, these games have seen an average that's even higher... at 85.3 ppg. We passed on this game last year (as Hawaii did not play, it was SMU vs Nevada), but we WERE on the 'Over' two years ago when Hawaii took on Notre Dame. The OU line in that one was 59 points, and the OVER cashed by double digits.
QB Bryant Moniz pilots a Hawaii offense that's thrown the ball twice as much as it has run this season, and that pass-to-run ratio could be even more lopsided in this game because Tulsa ranks 119th nationally (out of 121!) in pass defense (305.7 ypg). So the Warriors are licking their chops tonight. He is also a poised pocket passer who locates the open man and spreads the ball around when the protection is sound, so Tulsa has to get home on the blitz or it could be in for a l-o-n-g day.
QB G.J. Kinne is also Tulsa's leading rusher; he is a deceptively quick player whose fundamentals make him hard to defend. Kinne makes sound reads and gets upfield quickly when he sees a seam in the read-option game. Kinne faces a Hawaii defense that was GASHED for 507 passing yards by Boise State QB Kellen Moore... who didn't EVEN play in the fourth quarter of that game.
BOTH teams scored 50 or more points in their last regular season game. In fact, the Warriors scored 59 pts vs Unlv and 59 pts vs New Mexico St.
8-1 O/U since 2004: All BOWL teams who scored 50+ points in each of their last 2 games (HAWAII).
8-2 O/U last 3 years: All Conference USA bowl games (TULSA). In fact, the Golden Hurricane is 2-0 O/U in their last 2 bowl games.
8-2 O/U since 1998: All BOWL 'home' favorites of 4 > points (HAWAII).
Larry Ness
10* CBB Tourney GOW - Southern Miss -4.5
Larry Eustachy felt he had a pretty good team entering this year and off early returns, he was right! That's how I opened my write-up yesterday, when taking Southern Miss over St Louis. The win didn't come as easily as I had anticipated but after a poor start to the game (Golden Eagles fell behind by 10 midway through the first half), Southern Miss fought its way back to win, 74-67 (and cover!). The Golden Eagles are now 9-1 and had hoped to meet Ole Miss in the finals of this tourney, getting a chance to avenge the team's lone loss this season (86-81 in Oxford). A trio of seniors lead the way for Southern Miss, the 6-8 Flowers (20.1-6.8), the 6-9 Ayarza (10.2-5.6) and guard Horton (12.3). Then you have junior PG Johnson (6.8-5.0-5.0) and 6-4 freshman guard Newbill (9.9-6.8), who has led the team in rebounding for most of the season. JC transfer Page (7.3) joins the backcourt as does 6-10 guard Bolden (4.4). Also of note are 6-8 Nevada transfer Phillips (4.3-4.6) and redshirt senior, the 6-6 Stone. Stone averaged 10.3-5.4 as a freshman and 8.5-5.8 as a sophomore. He was hurt as a junior and returned last year as a role player (5.3-3.8). He's done little this year before yesterday, when he played 28 minutes while scoring 15 points and grabbing five rebounds. Southern Miss went 20-14 last year (8-8 in C-USA) but I'm on Eustachy's side, this team should be pretty good in 2010-11! Colo St (plus-6) upset Ole Miss 68-61 last night. The Rebels shot 36.8 percent, including 4-of-25 on threes. Was it the Rams' D? I think not. The day before, Appalachian St made 50 percent of its shots, including 10-of-18 on threes, as CSU escaped with a three-point win. Tim Miles in in his fourth season at Fort Collins and at 7-3, he HAS to be thrilled. The Rams were just 7-25 (0-16 in the MWC) in his first year with CSU, before improving to 9-22 (4-12) and then 16-16 (7-9), last year. The 6-9 Ogide (16.8-8.1) and the 6-7 Franklin (16.5-4.6) have led the way here in Cancun, with Franklin scoring 21 points in each game while Ogide followed a 21-13 effort vs App St with 17 points and 10 rebounds vs Ole Miss. However, this duo will have its hands full with Southern Miss' frontcourt. CSU's backcourt consists of Iowa St transfer Eikmeier (9.0) plus Carr (6.7), Green (6.7) and Nigon (5.4). Again, this group is not quite the equal of Southern Miss' perimeter people, plus if Stone plays like he did Thursday, the Golden Eagles could win in a 'walk.' Let me note that while the Rams are definitely improved, this team is a woeful 6-38 SU on the road since Miles took over. Yes, this is a neutral site game and yes, the Rams have won two games here in Cancun, but I'm betting the Golden Eagles don't shoot 36.8 percent overall like Ole Miss, or 4-of-25 on threes. In fact, the Golden Eagles are averaging a 'healthy' 80.7 PPG on the season while shooting 46.2 percent (38.2 on threes). Lay the points!
LT Profits
3* Tulsa
National Sports Service
3* Tulsa
Jim Fiest
Friday Night Steamroller
Tulsa
ASA
3* Tulsa