Al Demarco
Tenn/SD Un 47.5
This is wrong 😡
Al DeMarco
5 Dime - Tennessee Titans
In San Diego’s favor tonight are two overwhelming streaks: 17 consecutive straight-up wins in the month of December and an in-season winning streak of nine in a row. But the number that concerns me the most is the fact this is the Chargers’ third road game in four weeks. That’s a tough enough situation to overcome, but when you factor in the short week plus this game being played on Christmas night, I think this is the spot where the two big winning streaks come to an end for the Bolts.
Not denying San Diego any props, but you can’t overlook what Tennessee has done since Vince Young took over at quarterback: a 7-1 SU and ATS record. And the offense has perked up to the tune of 29.5 points per game with Young at the helm.
Young, of course, hasn’t been doing it all alone; Chris Johnson has reeled off nine straight 100+ yard games, raising his season total to 1730 with two games to play. He might be even more important than Young in this contest. If Johnson has a big game that means the Titans are in control of the game clock, leaving San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers less time to work his magic on the field.
Keep in mind San Diego is 21st in the league when it comes to stopping the run, allowing opposing backs to average 4.4 yards per carry.
While San Diego has the difficult task of being on the road once more, the Titans are spending the holidays at home with family and friends, preparing for their third straight home game in the process. That’s just another reason why I believe the travel catches up to San Diego, in addition to back-to-back physical big games with the Cowboys and Bengals, allowing Tennessee to post a surprisingly easy seven-point victory.
Strategy:
This line has been -3 all week long. You’ve got to buy the half-point down at -3 or even if the line moves up to -3 ½ or -4. And although I highly doubt it soars to 4 ½, you would buy down the hook in that case as well.
ATS Financial
3 Units Under 47
MR EAST
5* Tennessee Titans
GAMBLERS DATA
4* UNLV Rebels
4* St Mary's Gaels
Kikki-Sports
2* GOM St Mary's -7.5
1* Best Bet San Diego Chargers +3
SIXTH SENSE
3% SAN DIEGO/TENNESSEE OVER 47.5
TENNESSEE -3 SAN DIEGO 47
Both teams won on last second field goals last week. SD defeated Cincinnati and the stat sheet was similar, at least on offense for them. Once again, they couldn’t run the ball, averaging just 3.5ypr but allowing Cincinnati 5.4ypr and 114 yards. But they passed for 296 yards at 7.4yps but also allowed Cincinnati 293 yards and 7.0yps, which was much higher than what Cincinnati has done for the season. Overall, Cincinnati out gained SD 6.5yppl to 6.1yppl. Tennessee jumped out to an 18 point lead on Miami and then needed OT to win. They passed for 8.1yps while allowing an improving Miami passing attack to average 7.4yps. Overall, both teams averaged 6.1yppl. Crucial turnovers by Miami early on in the redzone allowed Tennessee to jump out to their lead and then a Chris Johnson fumble deep in their own territory, up by 18, gave Miami a pulse to get back in the game. Losing Keith Bullock on defense also didn’t help the Titans as well as a missed interception late in the game that deflected to the Dolphins for a huge game with just over two minutes left in the game. SD averages just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr but they average 8.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl overall. The defense is about average allowing 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Tennessee averages 5.2ypr against 4.2ypr and 6.3yps against 6.1yps but those passing numbers are much better since Vince Young took over. On defense they are about average at 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 561-423-30 but that situation doesn’t perform as well late in the season. If I use full season stats I get this game as a pick ‘em and a prediction of about 56 points. If I use just the numbers since Young started, I get Tennessee by about 5.5 points and still a prediction of about 56 points. SD has scored at least 20 points in every game this year and on the road against average defenses they have scored 20 and 21 points. Tennessee has averaged nearly 30 points since Young came back and they should be able to continue to score here as well. I’ll lean towards Tennessee for the side. SD needs a win or a NE loss to clinch the #2 seed so they should play hard in this game. TENNESSEE 33 SAN DIEGO 26
Seabass
100* St Mary's