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10 Units Georgia -6.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
5 Units Miami Fl -2.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Dwayne Bryant
C Florida
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5% GeorgiaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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4% Notre DameFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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3% S FloridaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
3% S CarolinaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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5* Georgia -6.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
5* South Carolina -3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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5* Northwestern +11FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
David BanksFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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4* SOUTH FLORIDA over CLEMSONSELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We had to wait until game day for the markets to bring the full +6’s into play, but they are there now and so are we. Since we are close to kickoff we will go shorter on details than usual, but the bottom line is that the Clemson resume does not bring the standards that call for the Tigers to be in this price range. They needed a walkover vs. Presbyterian as part of their schedule to merely get to the 6-6 needed to qualify for this trip, and an offense that was held to 16 points or less five times lacks the punch to get anything easily. The ground game was particularly ineffective after losing Andre Ellington, failing to reach 100 yards six times over the last eight outings, and QB Kyle Parker had such a disappointing campaign that we would not be surprised to see a lot of Tajh Boyd here.
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For South Florida this trip is a real reward for Skip Holtz in his first season with the Bulls, and his 26-13 ATS mark as an underdog commands a lot of respect from us in his tactical battle vs. Dabo Swinney, with the Bulls bringing plenty of confidence after beating bowl-bound Louisville and Miami F. in their last two road games. They held six of seven bowl opponents to 21 points or less, and in the only game that they did not accomplish that they were tied 7-7 into the third quarter at Florida. That defense has them in the hunt all the way in this one.
Jeff Benton
100 Dime Georgia
Fact: Central Florida was easily the class of Conference USA this season, as evidenced by the fact the Golden Knights went 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS against league foes, winning the title with a dominating 17-7 win over SMU back on Dec. 4. That was part of UCF’s overall 10-3 SU and ATS record (tied for the third-best pointspread mark in major college football), including 5-1 SU and ATS away from home.
Fact: Georgia had an extremely disappointing 6-6 season and needed a 42-34 win over instate rival Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale to even get into this bowl game and avoid its first losing campaign since 1996.
So given those facts, how can I justify backing the Bulldogs with my second-ever 100 Dime college football play? Here’s the easy answer: Georgia competes in the toughest league in the nation (SEC). Central Florida is from Conference USA.
To expand on that, Georgia faced a gauntlet of a schadule that included South Carolina and Auburn on the road (the two teams that played for the SEC title); Florida at a neutral site (Georgia lost that game 34-31 in overtime); Arkansas, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Kentucky and Georgia Tech (each of those teams went bowling this year); and a road game at Colorado (the Buffs stunk this year, but going to Boulder is no easy task). And keep in mind that the Bulldogs were put behind the 8-ball at the start of the season when their best player (WR A.J. Green) was suspeended by the NCAA for four games for a silly violation.
While Georgia was matched up against eight bowl teams (all from the rugged SEC), Central Florida faced five such opponents. Results? Two home wins over SMU (17-7 in the C-USA title game) and East Carolina (49-35) and three losses to North Carolina State, Kansas State and Southern Miss.
So who – other than SMU and East Carolina – did the Golden Knights defeat, exactly? Here’s the list: Memphis, Tulane, Houston (which was down to its third-string quarterback), Rice, Marshall, UAB, Buffalo and South Dakota.
See where I’m going here? Put it this way: Central Florida was favored in all but one of its 13 games this seasdn (the Knights were a 6-point ‘dog at Kansas State). Today, on a neutral field, they’re a touchdown underdog to an opponent that went 6-6. I think that says it all.
As for the motivational edge, I don’t see one. Obviously, Central Florida loves the fact it gets to test itself against an SEC opponent and will come out swinging (what do the Knights have to lose?). But Georgia will also be fired up for one simple reason: The players on this team don’t want to go down as the first Bulldogs squad in 14 years to finish a season under .500 (this proved to be a motivational rallying point down the stretch as Georgia following up that 1-4 start with a 5-2 finish).
There’s also a ton of heat on coach Mark Richt, whose job status is on shaky ground. A loss to a Conference USA opponent might lead to a pink slip, which is another reason the players will show up and play with effort, even if they are a big, bad SEC team facing an opponent from lowly Conference USA.
Remember, the last time the Bulldogs played a bowl game against a team from a lesser conference, they faced Colt Brennan and undefeated Hawaii in the 2007 Sugar Bowl. What happened? Georgia rolled to a 41-10 victory as an eight-point favorite.
That’s part of Georgia’s four-game SU and ATS bowl winning streak (average margin of victory of 18.5 ppg). Going back further, the Bulldogs are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight postseason games, including 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS as a bowl favorite.
Central Florida? It is still looking for its first-ever bowl win, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in three previous postseason appearances, including last year’s embarrassing 45-24 loss to Rutgers as a 2½-point underdog in the St. Petersburg Bowl (played in UCF’s backyard). Well, the Golden Knights will have to wait another year to finally get that historic win, because it’s not coming today, not against an opponent that is simply bigger, faster, stronger and more athletic.
Georgia posts its fourth straight double-digit bowl win (and fifth in a row overall) with a 31-13 rout.
DR BOB
Strong Opinion
Miami Fla (-2.5) 27 Notre Dame 19
Miami is a more talented team than Notre Dame and head coach Randy Shannon was fired because the Hurricanes under-performed that talent level in a 7-5 regular season. Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland will act as head coach for the Canes in this game and he has the entire staff still intact, which should help the transition. Interim head coaches are 18-11 ATS in bowl games since I’ve been keeping track, including Northern Illinois in their romp over Fresno earlier this month. Teams that under-perform in the regular season also tend to play well in bowl games and Miami applies to a 36-9 ATS situation that is based on their poor late season play. Notre Dame, meanwhile, applies to a negative 13-47 ATS bowl situation that is based on their good late season performances (the Irish won and covered their final 3 games). If both teams play at their average level for the season then the Miami will win this game because they’re better than Notre Dame on offense and on defense.
Miami’s offense had some inconsistency at the quarterback position this year, but the Hurricanes ran the ball well in nearly every game and averaged 204 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per rushing play against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 4.6 yprp to an average team. Miami’s 4 quarterbacks combined to a mediocre 6.2 yards per pass play, but that was against a schedule of teams that would allow just 5.7 yppp to an average team. The problem was the 22 interceptions that the Hurricanes threw in their 11 games against 1A competition. Jacory Harris will get the start and his stats are only 0.1 yppp better than average, but Miami is still 0.5 yppl better than average offensively with Harris behind center thanks to the strong rushing attack. Harris has always had interception problems (36 career on 863 passes, 4.2%) but the Canes’ are still better than average offensively even with the interceptions.
Notre Dame’s offense, meanwhile, is just 0.2 yppl better than average for the season and the Irish are 0.1 yppl worse than average with backup quarterback Tommy Rees at the controls. Rees did lead the Irish to 3 wins in his 4 starts and his yards per pass play number was better than average at 6.4 yppp. However, 6.4 yppp isn’t so good when you consider that the teams that Rees faced would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Rees also threw 8 interceptions on 135 pass attempts this season (5.9%), which is a significantly higher percentage than Miami’s Jacory Harris has had in his career. Rees probably won’t continue to get picked off at such a high rate, but Miami’s interceptions problems are balanced out by Rees’ interception problems and the Hurricanes’ offense is 0.6 yppl better than the Irish attack.
The defensive units are more even and both are good. Notre Dame’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average for the season, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl to an average team, but the Hurricanes’ defense was slightly better at 5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team. Miami also forced 0.7 more turnovers per game than the Irish defense did.
Notre Dame has have better special teams but my math model projects Miami with an edge of 91 total yards and 5.2 yppl to 4.5 yppl for the Irish. Even with Notre Dame’s special teams edge the math still favors Miami by 5 points. With the situations and the math favoring Miami they are certainly the side to be on in this game, but Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is 20-7 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog and there is speculation that a large majority of fans in the Sun Bowl will be Notre Dame supporters. El Paso’s population is about 80% Roman Catholic and Notre Dame apparel is flying off the shelves according to reports. That could be worth a couple of points for the Irish but the line would still be fair even if that were the case and the general situations would still strongly support Miami. I’ll consider Miami a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less (a lean at -3 ½ or more) and I have no opinion on the total.
Strong Opinion Under
Clemson (-5.5) 21 S. Florida 14
Both of these teams are better defensively than they are offensively, which should result in a low scoring game, but Clemson is better on both sides of the ball and on special teams and the Tigers should prevail despite a 51-18-3 ATS bowl situation that favors South Florida. South Florida was good, as expected, defensively, as the Bulls yielded just 4.8 yards per play and 20.0 points per game to 11 Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl and 23.5 points against an average team. However, USF really struggled offensively due to a lack of quality receivers after losing 5 receivers before the season even started – including top WR A.J. Love and expected starter Sterling Griffin. Quarterback B.J. Daniels lived on the big play in his freshman year in 2009 (he averaged 16.3 yards per completion), but his inaccurate throws (56.4% completions) and lack of big play receivers (a sub-par 12.2 ypc) derailed the pass attack and the Bulls also struggled to run the ball after opening the season with good rushing efforts against Florida (250 yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play) and Western Kentucky (238 yards at 5.8 yprp). For the season the Bulls averaged just 4.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average offense and the pass attack managed just 5.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp). Those passing numbers are actually misleading in that Daniels threw for 286 yards on 16 pass plays in one game against Cincinnati while being held to less than 4.0 yppp in 6 different games. Backup Bobby Eveld wasn’t any better when he got his chance down the stretch (and coach Leavitt is not sure which quarterback will get the nod in this game – although I don’t think it matters since they’re both terrible. Clemson has a good pass that allowed 5.8 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defensive team and the Tigers shouldn’t have any problem shutting down USF’s feeble pass attack. South Florida faced 6 teams with a good pass defense (Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, and Miami-Florida) and the Bulls managed just 3.6 yards per pass play in those 6 games (those defenses would combine to allow (5.1 yppp to an average passing team). Clemson is particularly good at defending the run (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yprp against an average team), so the sub-par Bull’s rushing attack isn’t going to generate much offense either. My math model projects just 249 total yards at 4.1 yards per play for USF in this game and that doesn’t take into account their tendency to play relatively worse against good defensive teams.
South Florida has a good defense too (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl) but Clemson is much more capable offensively. The Tigers averaged 5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but I rate Clemson’s attack at 0.2 yppl worse than average without injured RB Andre Ellington, who averaged 5.8 ypr before getting hurt. New #1 back Jamie Harper has averaged only 4.1 ypr and the Tigers are below average rushing team. My model projects a decent 308 yards at 4.7 yppl for Clemson against South Florida’s good defense. In addition to the overall edge from the line of scrimmage Clemson also is more likely to have an edge in turnovers with USF’s Daniels and Eveld combining for 15 interceptions while Parker threw just 10 picks. Clemson also has a big edge in special teams and my math model favors the Tigers by 9 ½ points in this game. Unfortunately USF does apply to a 51-18-3 ATS bowl situation, but I’ll lean with Clemson at -6 ½ points or less.
Going Under 40 points looks like the better play, as Clemson’s last 8 games have totaled 40 points or fewer and 7 South Florida’s 11 games against Division 1A teams totaled 40 points or less in regulation. My math projects just 34 ½ total points in this game and I’ll consider Under 40 points or higher a Strong Opinion (a lean at less than 40 points).
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6* NOTRE DAME
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BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
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5* GEORGIA
Wayne Root
No limit: Florida St.
Billionaire: Miami
Millionaire: S. Florida
EXECUTIVE
400% Miami Fla. -2.5
Kelso
25 Units Notre Dame
25 Units South Carolina
3 Units South Florida
3 Units Central Florida
50 Units Cincinnati
50 Units Houston
Tom Stryker
Notre Dame
Nick Parsons
Islanders / Redwings Under 5.5