LARRY NESS
9* Massive Mismatch Penn State
Penn St had the perfect schedule this year to "run the table," as its toughest two games were home contests with Iowa and Ohio St. However, the Nittany Lions were outscored 45-17 and held to an average of 254.0 YPG of offense in those two games. LSU had a similar lack of success against its best opponents, losing 13-3 at home to Florida, 24-15 at Alabama and 25-23 at Ole Miss (horrible clock management in the final 30 seconds). Also, LSU was hardly impressive in an eight-point win over Washington, a four-point-win over Miss St, an eight-point win over La Tech and a three-point over Arkansas. QB Jefferson has limited a ability and Miles rarely gives him much 'rope.' RB Scott had 1,174 yards (5.4 YPC) last season but before missing the team's last three games, had just 542 YR. Scott broke his collarbone in early November and though he returned to practice Dec. 14 is questionable for this game. LSU enters the game with the nation's 108th-ranked offense, averaging a mere 309.7 YPG. The defense is typically strong (and athletic), ranking 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.0 PPG). Penn St's offense did not get the job done vs Iowa and Ohio St and MUST step up here. RB Royster has had a good (1,104 / 5.9 YPC) but not spectacular season, while despite losing three senior WRs, QB Clark (61.9 % . 2,787 YP / 23-10 ratio) was named the Big Ten's offensive co-MVP. I expect PSU to be able to handle LSU's defense, as the Tigers allowed 293.0 YPG in their 7-1 start but surrendered 393.8 YPG going 2-2 in their last four. Meanwhile, Penn State's defense is ranked 10th nationally against the run (93.9 YPG), eighth overall (277.1 YPG) and has allowed the fourth-fewest points (11.8 PPG). Les Miles is 4-0 SU and ATS at LSU in bowl games (winning by an average of 28.5 PPG) but this year's team does not match up to his previous teams. Paterno looks to cap his 44th year by adding to his record 393 overall victories and 23 postseason wins. I expect he'll get that win led by the experience of senior QB Clark, going up against LSU's 19-year-old QB (Jefferson), who was able to dent Florida's and Alabama's defenses for just 210 passing yards in those two contests.
8* Daytime Dominator Florida St.
Bobby Bowden's historic 44-year career as a head coach comes to a close when Florida State meets No. 18 West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. Bowden couldn't have a better setting for his last game. The game is being played close to home (Jacksonville) and FSU will face West Va, the school where Bowden coached from 1970-75 (began his career at Samford). Bowden came to FSU in 1976, going bowl-less that first season and also in '78 and '81. He hasn't missed a bowl appearance since that '81 season, as this marks FSU's 28th straight bowl game. I've never been a huge Bowden fan but his accomplishments are staggering. He won national titles in 1993 and 1999, after numerous near-misses. FSU won at least 10 games for 14 consecutive seasons (from 1987-2000), finishing in the AP's final top-five each year (the Seminoles were 152-19-1 in that span). Will FSU "win one for the Gipper?" This year's team has plenty of flaws and will be without its best player, QB Christian Ponder (68.8% / 301.9 YPG passing / 14-7 ratio), who was lost for the season due to a separated shoulder. EJ Manuel has started the last three games (2 TDPs / 6 INTs) but like the team's running game, is erratic. The defense has been awful, allowing 443.5 YPG. However, West Virginia's attack has struggled without QB Pat White. Jarrett Brown did little all season (11 TDs) with just three TD passes coming in his final seven games. He sat out most of the Marshall game and averaged a rather pathetic 153.3 YPG through the air over the team's last six games. The team's best WR is Sanders and while he has 70 catches, he's averaged a pathetic 9.6 YPC. RB Noel Devine (1297 YR on 5.8 YPC, 13 TDs) is said to bre fully recovered from his ankle problems but it's hard to ignore how mediocre he was down the stretch. He topped 100 yards in just ONE of his final five games, gaining 134 yards vs Pitt when he broke an 88-yard TD run. Take away that one play and over his last five games, Devine ran for just 297 yards, averaging 3.4 YPC. West Virginia has a veteran D (20.8 PPG allowed) but I don't believe the West Va offense will take advantage of FSU"s questionable D. Against a better opponent, I wouldn't be on a 6-6 FSU team but I believe West Va is a fraud. Note that the first four 6-6 bowl teams have gone 3-1 SU and ATS this postseason (Iowa St and Minn were both 6-6 heading into the Insight Bowl) and I expect FSU to put forth an inspired effort good enough to "upset" an overrated foe. The city of Jacksonville and the Gator Bowl Association has set aside more than three hundred tickets for former Seminole players, who will guide Bowden onto the field one final time. My "bet" is that he will be carried off the field a winner. *8
10* LEGEND Ohio State
Great matchup here. East vs. West. Power vs. Speed. Defense vs. Offense. Both teams deserve to be here. Led by QB Jeremiah Masoli and a potent offense the Ducks recoved from a loss at Boise State in their opener and finished the year on a 10-1 run. They averaged 37.7 points, 32.2 on the road. The Buckeyes didn't score quite as many. They weren't as far behind as you might think though. Ohio State averaged 29.2, 26.8 on the road. Like Masoli, the Buckeyes have a dual threat QB. Terrelle Pryor completed 55.8 percent of his passes for 1,828 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for a team-high 707 yards, adding seven more touchdowns. Its on the other side of the ball that the real advantage lies. The Ducks come in allowing 23.6 points per game. That number climbs to 28 on the road. They allowed 382.6 yards in those games. The Buckeyes come in allowing only 12.2 points and 262.5 yards per game. Unlike Oregon, Ohio State actually played better defense away from home. On the road, they allowed 11.4 points and 261.8 yards. That's nearly 17 points and 120+ yards less that the Buckeyes allowed on the road, than the Ducks. Checking out some stats shows that the Ducks were 2-3 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. That's nothing new for Oregon. The Ducks are just 18-34-3 ATS the last 55 times they were favored in that range. With a great defense every season, the Buckeyes are generally tough in the underdog role. They were underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl last year and easily covered, losing by three vs. Texas. This year, they've been underdogs twice. They covered vs. USC - losing by three in a game they should have won. More recently, they beat Penn State outright. They get it done again here. *10
Brian King
25 Dimes West Virginia -2'
ULTRA SPORTS
5* Florida
4* West Virginia
Billy Coleman
5* Creighton
Kiki Sports
2* GOW - WV
1* Florida
1* Orlando Magic
Chris Jordan
3,000♦ PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
Does LSU really believe it is going to "run past" the Nittany Lions in this game today? Do the Tigers honestly believe when the two teams meet at Citrus Bowl Stadium, they'll be able to execute on the poor field conditions today's game offers?
Really Les Miles? With the 107th ranked offense that has the 85th-ranked rushing game and 99th-ranked pass attack in the nation?
Not feeling it. I don't care about the Tigers' defense, heck, I know it's tough. It's been the bread and butter for this program since Nick Saban was at the helm - and before then too.
The fact is, when the Tigers were faced with staunch defensive units this season, they failed miserably. The lost 13-3 to Florida. They lost 24-15 to Alabama. They lost 25-23 to Mississippi. That's an average final of 20.6-13.6 in those losses.
Now, against the eighth-best defense in the nation, a stop unit that is fourth in allowing just 11.8 points per game and ranks ninth against the run and 19th against the pass, the Tigers honestly believe their "speed" will make a difference in crappy weather on a crappy field?
Not to get "texty" on you, but, OMG and LOL ... okay, whatever!
Seriously, I know Penn State doesn't have a player as fast as LSU's Trindon Holliday, who has been labeled as college football's fastest player by some. But it's only going to take one good pop from one of the Nittany Lions' monsters on the line - perhaps Jack Crawford - to slow this kid down. His ability to cutback and juke defenders will be limited in bad field conditions, so the advantage is in my court with the Lions.
Quite frankly, you put this Lions defense in the SEC, I'd be willing to say it can matchup with anyone in that league. If you watch their linebackers on film, and how agile they are, and quick they are, being able to run from sideline to sideline, let me tell you something - these are true ballers, in every sense of the word. And they hit hard.
They not only come out stick, but they're smart. They know how to read offensive sets, they know how to avoid being read themselves. They know how to play football. Take your game vertical, their linebackers can adjust to assist the defensive backers. Move horizontal, again, they'll run sideline to sideline.
Penn State's defense is very similar to Alabama's - fast and athletic.
And You saw the final score of the 'Bama-LSU game, right?
And what about the offense, you ask?
It's much better than LSU's, I can tell you that much.
It ranks 35th overall, and is equally balanced with the 37th-best rushing game and 40th-ranked pass attack. It has scored a minimum of 28 points in nine of its 10 wins, including that 42-14 shellacking of Michigan State in the season finale.
So there is plenty of momentum coming into this New Year's Day battle.
I read a quote from Bruce Marshall, a handicapper from the famed Gold Sheet, as he said: "I don't see why Penn State is favored in this game. It really boggles my mind."
And just like that everyone is following the same theory, which is that LSU is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in bowls under coach Les Miles, and that Penn State a relatively easier schedule than the Tigers because of the difference in schedules.
Please, these are the Bowl Games. If the mystique behind power conferences meant something, would the Mountain West Conference be 4-0 right now? Would the SEC be 1-2?
How bout this, if we're looking at conferences, the Mountain West, Big East, Sun Belt and Independent schools are a collective 8-0 thus far. The Pac 10 and SEC are 3-6 ... explain that Bruce!
Penn State hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 15 straight contests, and since injuries in the backfield have forced one-time fourth-stringer Stevan Ridley into LSU's starting lineup, I don't think the Tigers will be using speed against anyone today. Holliday will get his, he'll have a decent day; but as a whole, the Tigers are in trouble.
And once standouts Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee shut down the A and B gaps, quarterback Jordan Jefferson will be thrust into the spotlight for LSU, as he'll be asked to make plays against the a unit that ranked seventh in the nation in sacks. He'll look for receiver Brandon LaFell, but I doubt he's going to be able to weave his way through Penn State's bend-but-won't-break defense today.
Everything LSU tries today, Penn State will counter.
3GWins
COLLEGE FOOTBALL:
10* PENN ST +1
5* Cincinnati +13
4* FSU +2.5
4* Ohio St +4
NBA + COLLEGE HOOPS:
passing
ICEMAN HOCKEY:
passing
Give JoePA a month to prepare and he'll have the Lions ready. The wind and rain really FAVORS Penn St and their running game and STRONG DEFENSE with the linebackers.
This LSU team is over-rated and I really like PENN ST BIG this afternoon at 1pm ET.
Shake-up on the LSU coaching staff precedes this game, with wide receivers coach D.J. McCarthy having been booted following an NCAA investigation into LSU’s recruiting practices, and associate head coach/running backs coach Larry Porter having left for Memphis. Les Miles has played up the incoming contributions of new WR coach David Gonzales, who was plucked from Florida and handed the additional title of passing game coordinator.
This is an offense that logged only 60.9 snaps per game, being asked to play faster, with so-so quarterbacks and the absence of the roster’s top three running backs, is at risk of committing more penalties and turnovers than normal lining up against a very good Penn St defense. Meanwhile, Penn State’s QB Daryl Clark was able to get more passing yards this season despite new starters at wideout. Tailback Evan Royster is off his second straight 1,100+ yard rushing season and PENN ST GETS THE WIN TODAY!
Executive
300 Ill St
Sports Bank
500% LSU
Carolina Sports
5* Florida
Inside Info
3* Florida
Joe D
20* Oregon
20* Florida
LT Profits
8 Units Florida
Mike Neri
4* Florida
The Duke's Sports
Ohio State (+4) for 3 Units
We're looking for the Buckeyes to end their bowl drought here. Much is made of Oregon's speed on the offensive side of the ball however, OSU plays sound gap control defense and tackles well in space. We'll look for the Buckeyes to pay sound gap control defense and limit Oregon's effectiveness of their zone read attack. On the other hand, Oregon, has struggled on the defensive side of the ball at times and OSU's underrated offense can move the football. Saine, Herron, and Pryor do a nice job running behind a physical Buckeye's offensive line tonight, we'll look for the OSU offensive line to out-physical the Oregon front eight to allow QB Pryor to go to the air effectively vs an Oregon Pass defense that allows 329 ypg. And keep in mind that when the Ducks faced a tough opponent on the road, they didn't fare particularly well for example, they struggled at Boise State a, lost at Stanford and had to go to OT to beat Arizona. We'll take the points here.
Tom Stryker
4* College Bowl System Play of Year
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Pick: Oregon -4.5
Oregon is locked into one of my best college bowl systems and I'm flying with the Ducks on New Year's Day to victory lane.
Since 1980, home or neutral bowlers that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .820 are a phenomenal 43-16 ATS provided they're matched up against a sub .918 opponent that enters with momentum off back-to-back straight up wins including a blowout victory of 10 points or more last. If our play on side did NOT beat the pointspread by 12 or more last and they are NOT running with revenge, this awesome post season bowl system tightens up to a spectacular 37-6 ATS! Oregon fits this situation and all of the tighteners perfectly!
The Big 10 hasn't given the Ducks much trouble in the past. In fact, when priced between -6 and +10 and matched up against a Big 10 foe, Oregon is a spectacular 11-1 ATS in its last 12 tries. Equally impressive, off back-to-back pointspread losses, the Ducks have posted a nearly perfect 7-1 ATS record!
Don't forget, since the 1997 season, the Pac 10 conference has dominated bowl teams that check in with momentum off back-to-back straight up wins posting a superb 22-6 ATS record. If our Pac 10 side is battling an opponent that checks in off a blowout win of 10 points or more, this conference trend explodes to a nifty 19-3 ATS! The Ducks apply!
Ohio State's defense is good and respect is given to a Buckeye's stop unit that ranks fifth in the nation. However, Oregon high-octane offensive attack has blazing speed and too many weapons and the Ducks will effectively pull away from State in the second half. Take Oregon.
BIG AL
93% (14-1 ATS) SUGAR BOWL WINNER
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats plus the points over Florida. This is a great matchup between two teams that have a combined record of 24-1, yet the focus is more on the coaches than the players. Urban Meyer stunned the sports world when he announced he would step down as coach of Florida due to health concerns, but he reversed himself days later (and will now just take a sabbatical after this game). Cincinnati's coach, Brian Kelly, bolted for Notre Dame days after this Sugar Bowl matchup was announced. So, co-ordinator Jeff Quinn will handle the head coaching duties today (and Central Michigan's Butch Jones will take over next season). Interestingly, immediately after Urban Meyer announced he would retire, the pointspread spiked from -10 to -12.5 points, ostensibly because bettors were wagering on Florida to try to win one for its outgoing coach. But now he's announced he's not really going anywhere, and the spread is still sitting around 12.5. I'll take that extra pointspread value with Cincy. Also, Florida really did hope it would be playing in the BCS Championship game, as it was ranked in the Top 2 for the entire season (unlike, say, Cincinnati which was always on the outside looking in on Florida, Texas, Alabama and even TCU). So, although Cincinnati would have loved to have caught some breaks, and played for a national championship, it never really had that expectation. But Florida did, until it was upset in its final game by Alabama. And College teams that start the season 5-0 or better are awful bets in the game immediately following that first defeat. I refer to this as my "Bubble Burst" system as teams suffer huge letdowns after their national championship hopes are dashed by a first loss. And it doesn't matter whether it's a regular season, or a bowl game: These teams still burn money. Indeed, I have a great 68-27 ATS system which encapsulates this theory (my angle also has a few other elements which make it pop). Finally, one-loss or undefeated bowl teams, priced from +7 to +13 points are an awesome 14-1 ATS since 1987 if they're off a win, and playing at home or on a neutral field. Take Cincinnati.
Kyle Bales
Cincinnati +13
DR BOB
College Opinion
Drake (+15) over WICHITA STATE
Wichita State ended their 9 game win streak with a 57-72 loss at Illinois State on Tuesday and that loss sets up the Shockers in a very negative 2-39 ATS subset of a 16-68-1 ATS situation tonight. As much as I love that angle, the line on this game is a bit low, as my ratings favor Wichita by 16.7 points. I'll lean with Drake at +15 points and I'd take Drake in a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.