Rocky Sheridan
5* Boise St Over 63
Ben Burns
9* Boise St. / Idaho Under 63
I'm playing on Boise and Idaho to finish UNDER the total. The Broncos have been good to me recently, so I'm well aware of how potent their offense is. Last week, I had a big play on them against Hawaii and they rewarded me with a 42-7 victory. The previous week, I successfully played against the Broncos. They beat LA Tech by a score of 49-20 but failed to cover the large spread. In the Broncos' previous game, I successfully played on the 'under.' Boise scored 48 points but the game still stayed below the total, thanks to the defense delivering a perfect shutout. With all due respect to the offense, which is very good and which is also looking to run up scores, I feel that the Boise defense continues to be under-rated and that, as a result, we're again getting excellent value with the UNDER. Even with all the big offensive numbers that the Broncos have been putting up, thanks to a combination of high O/U lines and their excellent defensive play, the UNDER is 2-1 their last three games and 3-2 their last five. That includes a 2-0 mark when playing on the road. In fact, the Broncos have allowed only six combined points in their three "true" road games. (The Virginia Tech game was technically considered a neutral site.) They limited Wyoming to six points and they blanked BOTH New Mexico State and San Jose State completely. Some may not realize quite how impressive last week's defensive performance was. The Warriors entered that game averaging 9.2 points per game and 491.7 yards per game. The Broncos held them to 11 first downs and 196 total yards. That was Hawaii's lowest output in 12 years. Idaho got lit up (63-17) by Nevada last time out, a game that sailed over the total. While that result has helped in keeping this evening's O/U line generously high, note that the Vandals' previous two games had both finished below the total, a 45-10 loss at Hawaii and a 37-14 victory over New Mexico State. This will be the best defense that the Vandals have seen and I expect them to have trouble scoring. The UNDER is 2-1 in their home games this season and 8-6 the last 14 here. Off last week's awful defensive effort and having been embarrassed on Boise's blue turf last season, the last thing the Vandals want is to be destroyed in front of its home fans. While that may inevitably prove to be unavoidable, I expect there to at least be an emphasis on defense and for the Vandals to fight their hardest on that side of the ball. Note that this year's Vandals returned only four offensive starters but 10 on defense. Naturally, the Broncos are massive favorites here. Note that the UNDER is 6-4 the last 10 times that they were favored by 31 or more points. The last meeting here at Idaho finished with a score of 45-10. I expect a similar final combined score here.
10* Atlanta Hawks -5
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Jazz come in as the "hotter" team. In fact, they're off back to back upset victories at Miami and Orlando. Pretty impressive stuff. Off those two wins, they may be patting themselves on the back a bit here though and it could be easy to let their guard down, if only slightly. That will prove costly though as the Hawks are generally very strong on this floor and as they should be extremely "hungry" tonight. Indeed, the Hawks have lost three straight games and should be desperate to get back on track. Note that the Hawks are a profitable 8-4-1 ATS since the start of the 2008 season, when off three or more consecutive losses. Also, note that they haven't lost three straight home games (they've currently lost b2b games here) since the 2007/2008 season. Atlanta's Josh Smith had this to say: "We'll figure out what's going wrong, and we'll fix it really quick." Before "writing off" the Hawks because of their current losing streak, lets not forget that they're still a solid 6-3 on the season. Perhaps more important, keep in mind that this team went an awesome 34-7 SU here last regular season, after going an impressive 31-10 here the previous season. During the same stretch, the Jazz were a combined 36-46 on the road. The Hawks are a solid 16-11 ATS (20-7 SU) the past 2+ seasons when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During that stretch, the Jazz were a money-burning 7-14 ATS (6-15 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The Hawks swept the Jazz last season and they're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three series meetings here at Atlanta. That includes a 96-83 victory here last season. I expect them to continue that success here, bouncing back with a much needed win and cover.
10* Pittsburgh Penguins
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Penguins are fairly steep favorites here. However, I feel that the high price tag is justified. In addition to having home ice advantage, the Penguins have the schedule in their favor. The Pens come in well-rested. They had yesterday off, after playing on Wednesday. Prior to that, they'd had several days off. On the other hand, the Lightning were busy losing at Washington last night. Now, they'll be playing their third game in the past four days. Including a 1-0 loss last week at LA, note that the Lightning are a money-burning 72-118 (-31.6) the last 190 times that they played the second of back to back games. While its possible the Pens will be without Malkin, the Lightning will definitely be without LeCavalier, arguably a much bigger loss. The Pens figure to be extremely motivated. Not only have they been losing recently, but they also squandered a 4-2 third period lead in their last game, en route to an embarrassing 7-4 loss. Note that they're an outstanding 46-24 (+12) the last 70 times that they allowed four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, they were also a highly lucrative 33-17 (+13.7) when coming off a loss by two or more goals. Additional motivation is provided by the fact that the Lightning already defeated the Pens, at Tampa. While its been a tough start here so far this season, keep in mind that the Pens were 25-12-4 here last season, 25-13-3 here in 2008 and 26-10-5 here in 2007. This is a team which has been consistently getting it done at home for years. They're 5-2 the last seven times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss and I look for them to bounce back and earn an important two points tonight.
Bobby Maxwell
400-UNIT COLLEGE HOOPS OPENING LOCK- NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS
Two teams that were in the Sweet 16 meet in Syracuse tonight when Northern Iowa takes on the Orangemen in the Carrier Dome. The Panthers became the darlings of the NCAA tourney in March when they knocked out top-seeded Kansas in the second round.
Now, Northern Iowa comes in missing three starters from that squad, but they have filled the roster with eight true or redshirt freshmen. But regardless of who is on the court, all the Panthers know how to play defense. This team has been one of the best defensive teams in the country the last several seasons, allowing just 55.1 points per game last season.
Syracuse won 30 games last year and the Big East regular season crown, and after wins over Vermont and Gonzaga in the big dance, they fell in the Sweet 16 to eventual finalist Butler, falling 63-59 as six-point favorites. The Orangemen looked good in the exhibition season, blowing out two Division II opponents this year instead of losing to one like they did last season.
Northern Iowa is on ATS streaks of 19-8 on the road, 38-18 overall and 7-1 in non-conference games. The Panthers know how to play defense and you know they’ll be locked in from the three-point line.
Syracuse might win this game, but it’s going to be low-scoring and tough against the Panthers’ defense. I’m going to grab the points and play Northern Iowa.
100-UNIT NBA ROAD WARRIOR - UTAH JAZZ
Look what this Utah team has done the last three nights and you can see why they will come out and continue to play good basketball in Atlanta tonight. Grab the points with Utah in this one.
The Jazz rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat the Clippers in double-OT on Saturday, then went to Miami on Tuesday and trailed by 22 points in the third quarter before winning 116-114 in OT, getting 11 points from Paul Milsap in the final 29 seconds to force the OT. Then Wednesday they closed the game with a 48-20 run to beat Orlando 104-94 after trailing by 18 in the third quarter.
Utah won’t need the big rally tonight because they are facing an Atlanta team that is struggling mightily right now. The Hawks have lost three straight and they looked very lethargic in a 108-91 home loss to the Bucks on Wednesday, trailing by as many as 30 points. They are without Marvin Williams with a bone bruise in his knee and reserve Mo Evans hasn’t played since the season-opener with a knee injury.
The Jazz have been getting great play from PG Deron Williams and Milsap. Williams has averaged 27 points and 11.7 assists during the three comeback wins. Milsap is averaging 23.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 61.4 percent shooting in filling the starting role vacated by Carlos Boozer’s departure to Chicago.
Utah comes in on ATS streaks of 5-0 against the Southeast Division, 4-1 after a straight-up win and 20-6-1 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Hawks are not very good at the betting window, on ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 2-5 as a favorite, 2-9 after a straight-up loss, 1-7 after a day off, 0-6 at home and 0-4 as a home favorite.
I’ll grab the points and play the red-hot Jazz in this one.
Keith Martin Sports
Temple -5
Cal Santa Barbara -3
Georgia Southern +25
PPP
Boise St
Rocketman
3* Boise St -34.5
4* Northern Arizona +8
3* Western Michigan +15.5
3* Florida -26
3* Princeton -7.5
3* Florida Atlantic -3.5
3* Austin Peay +8.5
3* NC Greensboro +19.5
Don Wallace Sports
Atlanta -4
New York -3
Oklahoma City -2.5
Joyce Sterling
10* Idaho +34.5
Joyce Sterling
10* Idaho +34.5
RAS
C. Michigan -5
UNLV -20.5
Pepperdine +6
UW-Mil +7
Bryant +26
N. Arizona +8
Ark Little Rock +10.5
James Madison +20.5
Hawaii -3.5
Anthony Redd
40 Dime Ball State
40 Dime Ball State/Buffalo Under
40 Dime Wizards
Brett Atkins
Jazz
Magic
Chuck O'Brien
Boise State
Atlanta Hawks
Jay McNeill
Ball State
Joel Tyson
Jazz
William & Mary
Matt Rivers
Buffalo
Northwestern
Trace Adams
Bobcats
William
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Idaho
10* Raptors/Magic Under
10* Old Dominion
10* Xavier
Buffalo/Ball St Over
Penguins Puck -1.5
Ben Burns
9* Boise St. / Idaho Under 63
10* Atlanta Hawks -5
10* Pittsburgh Penguins
Blue Chip - Tampa Bay / Pittsburgh Under
Chris Jordan
Western Kentucky -2