Brandon Lang
Boise St / Idaho Over 64
Derek Mancini
Ball State
Antony Dinero
Timberwolves at Knicks
Pick: Knicks -3
Darko Milicic and Kevin Love will try and contain Amar'e Stoudemire, who is starting to get more comfortable in the Knicks system. Given Minnesota's point guard issues and inability to gain consistency on the wing, I look for New York to simply be sharper in this one, and considering its current slump, the Knicks won't be looking past the lowly Wolves, especially with no game tomorrow. Back the Knicks -3 and the under, 216.5.
Andy Fanelli
LA Clipers
Jimmy Boyd
5* Philadelphia +9.5
4* Atlanta -4
Teddy Covers
Philadelphia 76ers
Buffalo
Jeff Benton
20 Dime Boise State
10 Dime Philadelphia
BOISE STATE
Don’t care that we have to lay an extra seven points tonight (and make no mistake, we are); after what I saw out of Boise State last week in its 42-7 dismantling of Hawaii – holding one of the nation’s most prolific offenses to a single meaningless touchdown – I have no problem baaking the Broncos as a five-touchdown road chalk in an instate rivalry game.
Boise State didn’t just rout Hawaii as a 21-point chalk on Saturday, it completely dismantled the Warriors. Here are the numbers to back that up: The Broncos had 30 first downs, 507 passing yards, 230 rushing yards and went 8-for-12 on third down; Hawaii had 11 third down, 151 passing yards, 45 total yards and went 3-for-14 on third down. And get this: Boise put up those statistical discrepancies despite possessing the football for 1 minute, 16 seconds more than Hawaii had it.
If the Broncos hadn’t lost the turnover battle 3-0 – a rarity for this team – they would’ve won that game by 55 points, EASILY!
And again, this is a Hawaii squad that arrived in Boise on a roll, having won and covered six straight games while averaging 46 points per game. That included a 27-21 win over Nevada (at the time ranked in the Top 25 and perceived by many as the second-best team in the WAC behind Boise State). And a week before getting crushed in Boise, Hawaii lambasted Idaho 45-10 as a 15-point home favorite.
How did Idaho follow up its debacle in Hawaii? With Saturday’s 63-17 home loss to Nevada as a 12-point underdog, getting outgained 844-339 – no, that’s not a typo; Nevada gained 844 yards and rolled up nine touchdowns on the Vandals’ home field (which is supposed to be a difficult place for visitors. Add it up, and Idaho in the last two weeks has been outscored by a margin 108-17 while giving 1,338 yards, including more than 700 passing yards. Now the Vandals are running into a team that’s is one of the four best in the entire country, averaging 47 points and 534.5 yards per game while yielding 12.6 points and 231.4 yards per game. And the Broncos are led by a quarterback (three-year starter Kellen Moore) who since the start of last season has passed for 5,908 yards with 60 TDs against 7 INTs.
I think you get the point. But here are some more reasons to love Boise tonight: 1) Idaho comes into this contest having lost three of four overall (0-4 ATS), with the only win coming against New Mexico State; 2) Not only are the Broncos a perfect 8-0, but they’ve cashed in six of those eight contests despite laying massive pointspreads, most of them inflated like tonight; and 3) Not only has Boise completely owned this rivalry, but it has shown zero mercy against the Vandals.
Proving that latter point, beginning in 2000, Boise State has put up the following point totals against Idaho: 66, 45, 38, 24, 65, 70, 42, 58, 45 and 63. Average margin of victory over this 10-game stretch? 33.1 points. Composite final score in the last three meetings? Boise State 166, Idaho 49, including a 63-25 rout as a 32-point home favorite exactly one year ago when Idaho actually finished 8-5 and won its first bowl game in more than a decade!
Bottom line: We know Boise State can name the score here, and if the past three meetings with the Vandals are any indiclation (58-14, 45-10, 63-25), there will be no letting off the gas pedal for the Broncos – especially since they remain on the outside looking in as far as the BCS standings are concerned. They need to win and win big each and every week to try to improve their national championship odds. And the fact they committed three turnovers last week against Hawaii (and forced none) gave coach Chris Peterson a flaw to focus on as he got his team prepared for this contest.
Boise rolls, 62-21.
76ERS
NBA betting 101: If you want to make easy money, you go against the Mavericks when they’re a sizeable home favorite (like they are tonight against Philadelphia). So far, Dallas has played four games at American Airlines Center and gone 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. This includes three straight non-covers against the Grizzlies (91-90 loss as a 9½-point chalk), Nuggets (103-92 loss as a 6½-point favorite) and Celtics (89-87 win as a 3½-point chalk) since a season-opening 15-point win over Charlotte.
How horrid have the Mavs been when laying big points at home lately? Since starting last year 4-1 ATS at home (all as a favorite), Dallas is 4-27-1 ATS when spotting visitors 4½ points or more – and that includes a meaningless 96-89 win as a five-point favorite over the Spurs in the regular-season finale last year. Even if you throw in games where they’ve been a short home favorite, the Mavericks are in a 7-30-1 ATS funk in regular-season action since starting out 4-1 ATS last year.
That’s A LOT of money the Mavericks have cost their supporters in the last 12 months. And included among that 38-game of pointspread freefall is last year’s home contest against the 76ers. Dallas escaped with a 104-102 victory on Nov. 30 of last year, but never threatered to cover as a 12-point favorite. And while Philly comes into this one with just two victories in its first six games – alternating wins and losses in its last five contests – the team has been getting the job done at the window, going 4-1 ATS in the last four games, including four consecutive covers as an underdog.
The Sixers are in the midst of a five-game road trip that started with a 106-96 win at the Knicks as a seven-point underdog and continued with Wednesday’s 109-103 loss at the Thunder, cashing as a nine-point pup. With the result at Oklahoma City, Philadelphia has now covered the spread in eight of its last 10 games against Western Conference squads, and it is on a 6-0 ATS run against Southwest Division clubs (think Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, New Orleans).
On the flip side, adding to the Mavericks’ porous pointspread record at home is their 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven against the Eastern Conference and 0-4 ATS in their last four against the Atlantic Division.
Take the generous points, because if recent history is any indication, this will be a tight ballgame in the fourth quarter.
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Boise St
Nick Bogdanoivich
Boise St
The Duke's Sports
Charlotte (pk) for 2 Units
Charlotte has done well against the NBA Southwest. Moreover, they've covered 7 of the last 9 in this series and sport a 4-1 mark in Washington. The Wizards are a mere 5-11 ATS at home and 2-6 ATS on Fridays. Charlotte is much better defensively at this point in the season and more set on their system. Washington, which is coming off a big win over Houston with #1 pick Wall delivering a triple-double. Tonight, Wall will expect to carry the load again but we'll look for the crafty Bobcats to limit his effectiveness. We'll look for Gerald Wallace to continue his impressive play against Washington. Wallace averaged 18 ppg and 13 rpg last season in four games against Washington. Wallace is off to another impressive start this year. Charlotte the call.
Street Rosenthal
*200 Ball State +3
California Sports
4* Northern Iowa
4* William & Mary
3* Pacific
MTi Sports
4* Utah
4* Philadelphia
3* Atlanta Under
3* Oklahoma Over
3* Phoenix Under
Wunderdog
UNLV
Colorado
Florida
Cleveland St
UCSB
St.Louis
Texas Tech
Helmut
San Jose St -3.5
Western Michigan +14.5
Wofford +9.5